The 2022 Greek pension reform: The rebirth of carve-out privatization in Eastern Europe

After a decade of unprecedented austerity, Greece abruptly changed the course of pension consolidation in 2022 and implemented the controversial carve-out pension funding approach, whereby a portion of existing pay-as-you-go (PAYG) contributions are diverted to fund individual pension savings, thus undermining the financing of existing PAYG pensions. Although inspired by the World Bank’s 1994 pension privatization blueprint, the Greek 2022 reform features a major policy shift by entrusting the management of individual pension savings to a dedicated government body, ostensibly to try to remedy inherent market failures in private pension provision. Like earlier reforms in Eastern Europe, the multi-decade transition costs of carve-out funding have been vastly underestimated in Greece, which will give rise to fiscal distress in the coming years when annual transition costs become sizeable and favourable international financing terms start to change. Unless firm political commitment is established to implement the measures necessary to finance the transition costs, Greece may have to resort to reform reversals similar to those already implemented across Eastern Europe.     

Expanding social health protection in Cambodia: An assessment of the current coverage potential and gaps,and social equity considerations

The Royal Government of Cambodia recently launched its National Social Protection Policy framework to strengthen and expand social security and assistance. To inform social health protection policy, we examine socio-economic survey data and administrative coverage data to assess the coverage potential of existing coverage mechanisms and current gaps; and compare equitable contribution rates. Over 53 per cent of the population currently has no social health protection coverage mechanism, and about 16 per cent of the population who do have access to a mechanism are not yet enrolled. Current expansion efforts focus on the formal employee scheme, primarily benefiting individuals from higher income households. In addition, recent coverage expansion to some informal workers leaves significant gaps, particularly among the informal sector. We find out-of-pocket health care expenditure to be an excessive share of income among lower wealth quintile individuals and conclude they are financially vulnerable. Finally, we illustrate that an equitable approach to individual, monthly health care contributions among the lower three quintiles has a severely limited potential for revenue generation, and collection costs could exceed the amount collected. Therefore, we recommend that vulnerable groups should be exempted from contribution payments as social health protection is expanded.     

Inequity in access to the Argentinian pension system (1994–2017)

Pension coverage in Argentina is inequitably distributed between different income levels, both during working years and during retirement. The objective of the article is to study the evolution of inequity in access to the Argentinian pension system in terms of its association with the socio‐economic status of individuals during the period 1994–2017. An evaluation is offered of how variables such as sex, age, and educational attainment influence such inequity. It is concluded that, although the level of average coverage increased, inequity in access increased significantly in the years following the 1994 reform, both among the active and the inactive population. However, inequity in access among active persons did not improve substantially with the return to the pay‐as‐you‐go pension system, while it was considerably reduced among the inactive population. While the former are found to be affected to a greater extent in terms of coverage as a result of the pro‐educated bias among the active population, the latter outcome is thought to be a direct result of the transitory plan (Pension Inclusion Plan) for pension inclusion, after which inequity was to resume its upward course.     

The risk of under-insurance in the Finnish statutory pension scheme for self-employed workers: A trajectory analysis

Using unique data on the contribution base, we investigate under-insurance within the statutory pension scheme for self-employed workers in Finland. Under-insurance is defined as the difference between pension-declared income and tax-declared income. The trajectory modelling technique applied has allowed us to estimate the levels of under-insurance for different subgroups and to identify possible explanatory factors. Under-insurance is found to be persistent and large. The analysis reveals six distinctive and homogenous sub-groups of self-employed workers. Close to 84 per cent of these workers pay too little in contributions, often leading to inadequate protection against personal risks. Especially for lower-income self-employed workers, this points to myopic behaviour as regards contributing to the self-employed statutory pension scheme and calls for fine-tuned economic incentives.     

Social health protection in Cambodia: Challenges of policy design and implementation

The Government of Cambodia is implementing ambitious reform initiatives to improve the country's social health protection system. In January 2018, it was announced that the Health Equity Fund (HEF), which is fully subsidized by a joint government‐donor initiative for the reimbursement of user fees for the poor at public health facilities, is to be expanded to some segments of informal workers belonging to associations, as well as to commune and village chiefs. Since 2017, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has provided social health insurance for formal economy workers in enterprises with eight employees or more. In January 2018, it was expanded to civil servants and all employees regardless of the size of the enterprise. However, this article highlights that the new ambitious reforms are not accompanied by careful planning as regards funding, service delivery, human resources and institutional design. This article therefore aims to examine key policy issues and challenges for Cambodia's ambitious reform of its social health protection system in terms of resource generation, population coverage, strategic purchasing and governance.     

Pension financialization and collective risk sharing in Canada and Finland

This article contributes to the debate concerning pension financialization and how countries are adapting their pension systems to respond to demographic ageing. We do so by examining the statutory pension systems of Canada and Finland, which diverge interestingly from current international trends. The Canadian and Finnish public pension schemes reflect two tendencies often associated with pension financialization: an increasing reliance on financial markets and an investment policy with a diversified asset allocation. However, unlike in many other countries, this has not resulted in heightened individual risks in old-age income security caused by a shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pensions – an otherwise common trend internationally.     

The impact of international migration on the public pension system: The case of Portugal

This article analyses the impact of replacement migration on the financial sustainability of the old‐age pension system in Portugal, a country with one of the largest ageing populations in Europe. We do this using demographic forecasts and prospective exercises for the evolution of the Portuguese economy. During the 2015–2060 period, our results evidence the positive impacts of international migration on old‐age pension system financial balances, reaching over 3 per cent of GDP after 2045. Moreover, even when taking into considering the low dynamics for the Portuguese economy, replacement migration is an important input to improve pension system financial sustainability.     

The performance of the income protection system for older adults in Ecuador and future challenges

The objective of this article is to analyse the performance of Ecuador’s pension system and the challenges it will face in the future. Over the last 13 years, the pension system has made significant advances in terms of coverage and adequacy. However, demographic ageing is straining the financial sustainability of the contributory scheme. In this context, a number of public policy areas are identified, in terms of parameters and structures, which, together with the expansion of non-contributory coverage, could provide a more equitable and sustainable scheme.     

Social security coverage for couriers who work through digital platforms in Mexico: A role for a special scheme?

The socio-demographic characteristics of couriers who work through digital platforms in Mexico reveal that more than 85 per cent of these workers have completed full-time secondary education and 83 per cent of these workers are young (aged 14 to 44). However, only 25 per cent are covered for health services and social security benefits. Against this backdrop, and guided by international experience, we set out a proposal to provide these workers with a tailored package of social security benefits. The proposal would require to categorize couriers who work through digital platforms as “digital workers”, introduce a special scheme for these workers based on voluntary affiliation, and offer a specific portfolio of benefits.     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

Contributions‐financed cash benefits: Selected examples of tiered pension systems

This article addresses the link between pensions and occupational earnings using the example of social security contributions in selected OECD countries. The rules of the pension schemes studied point towards a very strong link between occupational earnings and pension level. However, certain pension calculation methods, through pension calculation parameters or through the existence of tools to compensate for certain career discontinuities, may distort this link in the majority of the countries studied. Therefore, the examination of pension calculation parameters and of solidarity measures attached to retirement is necessary to provide a more finely‐tuned evaluation of the link between occupational earnings and pension level. Ultimately, comparison of pension systems across countries remains challenging given their specificities.     

Special pension schemes for workers in arduous and hazardous jobs: Functions and conditions to ensure equal treatment

Most jurisdictions grant differentiated and more beneficial treatment – usually in the form of early retirement, and commonly under special pension schemes – to workers in arduous or hazardous jobs. Several justifications for such treatment have been advanced, including i) compensating the worker for the hardship, ii) protecting the worker from the hazard, and iii) realizing the principle of equality in the distribution of costs and benefits in the social security system. This article analyses these functions from a socioeconomic perspective and explains how early retirement for workers in arduous and hazardous jobs is necessary to ensure equality by treating “unequals unequally”, and in proportion to their inequality. Moreover, this article presents a precise formula to calculate when a worker should be allowed to retire, so that workers in occupational domains with a shorter life expectancy do not systematically enjoy lower expected benefits from the pension system while having contributed the same amount. Implications for the design and desirability of special pension benefits are discussed.     

The expected impact of the 2019 Brazilian pension reform on survivors’ pensions

This study analyses the expected changes in survivors’ pensions resulting from the permanent rules of the 2019 pension reform in Brazil. Actuarial annuities are used for representative worker profiles. The dispersion in the replacement rate values decreases, except for the highest income level. The rates needed to finance survivors’ pensions decrease relatively more than do the rates for old-age pensions. The internal rates of return significantly decrease. There is a heterogeneous change in the distributive aspects of the pension system. The reform shall affect the adequacy and intragenerational equity of old-age and survivors’ pensions.     

Curbing the demographic “drifting dune” in long-term care insurance financing: The case of Germany

Long-term care provision and financing are becoming increasingly important matters in all ageing economies. Therefore, a major challenge for policy makers is to strike a balance between adequate care and sustainable financing. In this study, we evaluate the proposal of a so-called sustainability factor in German long-term care insurance. Considering changes in the beneficiary-contributor ratio, it aims for a rule-based consideration of demographic dynamics to alleviate pressure on long-term care financing. Using the framework of generational accounting, we demonstrate that this proposal could have a relieving effect on finances, depending on the share of involvement of current and future generations. It may offer an option for pay-as-you-go long-term care insurance systems worldwide that need to curb the impact of ageing societies. Therefore, this article addresses policy makers tasked with designing a sustainable financing model for long-term care insurance. It demonstrates that the sustainability factor represents a step towards sustainable finances and, thus, it might be one component of a more comprehensive reform package.     

China’s development of a multi‐tier pension system

China has made a number of major changes to its pension system in the period 2014–2020, and is in the process of establishing a multi‐tier old‐age pension system, consisting of programmes provided by the government, voluntary programmes provided by enterprises, and voluntary programmes established by individuals. Policy objectives are to reduce the fragmentation in its pension system; deal with population ageing; and diversify risks by involving the government, enterprises as well as individuals. This article shows that while China has a complex system for urban workers, the coverage provided by its multi‐tier system is uneven, with the second and third tiers being in the early stages of development.     

The Brazilian pension model: The pending agenda

To achieve national goals defined by the 1988 Brazilian Federal Constitution, cash benefits alone are insufficient in the absence of more robust social services to reduce inequalities and improve social cohesion. The Constitution, albeit of national importance and international significance, has not addressed many institutional and administrative weaknesses in the design of the national pension system. Although coverage has been increased and inequality reduced, these measures are not sufficient. Brazil's ambitions to further develop social policies (and, indeed, to live up to its accorded international status as a social policy leader) may be constrained by an over‐reliance on conditional cash transfers such as those provided under the Bolsa Família programme. Brazil faces a major political‐economy challenge in addressing all these issues because the policy reform process is difficult, and, more importantly, because of the embedded role of vested interests. Moreover, Brazil must tackle these issues in the face of growing fiscal pressures, which could weaken the current political legitimacy of social policy and undermine important recent successes.     

The role of mutuals and community-based insurance in social health protection systems: International experience on delegated functions

The institutional architecture for the provision of social health protection varies across countries, as do the actors and organizations involved. In some countries, mutual benefit societies and community-based health insurance organizations (CBHI) play a role in this area. In the 1990s, these were promoted particularly as a means of extending social security coverage, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In the current context, the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development, as well as renewed political will to realize universal coverage, has led to a questioning of the role of mutuals/CBHI. However, the literature on the roles they play in national social security systems remains limited. For this scoping review, 49 documents were analysed, covering 18 countries worldwide, focused on the delegation of functions to mutuals/CBHI in national social health protection systems. The results reveal the dynamics of the delegation of functions within social protection systems over time and their implementation processes. These provide areas for reflection that can inform policy processes.     

Reinvigorating the social contract and strengthening social cohesion: Social protection responses to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of those who are inadequately covered by social protection in more and less developed countries alike, and has exacerbated the fragility of a social contract that was already under strain in many countries. A weak social contract in the context of an exceptional crisis poses a very real risk to social cohesion. Nevertheless, many States have reasserted themselves as the guarantor of rights by protecting public health and incomes. By sustaining these measures, economic recovery will be supported which will help minimize risks that may weaken social cohesion. However, this is a fast-moving, inherently unstable and protracted crisis. Social protection stands at a critical juncture. Decisive policy action will be required to strengthen social protection systems, including floors, as one of the cornerstones of a reinvigorated social contract.     

The limits of parametric reforms in sustaining the Algerian retirement system in a context of population ageing

Accelerated population ageing in Algeria threatens the financial sustainability of its pay-as-you-go retirement system. Reform is a necessity, with options ranging from simple parametric reforms to important systemic changes. Prior to undertaking systemic reforms, it is worthwhile to investigate whether parametric reforms can place the system on a financially sustainable footing. In this article, we used a multi-scenario analysis that crosses the possible reform actions with possible socioeconomic scenarios. The results show that when using the most favourable scenarios, the financial balance of the Algerian system will remain negative in the short and long term. Implementing major parametric reforms can only help reduce the deficit and make it stable over time. Thereafter, systemic reforms will have to be implemented.     

Work histories and workers’ failure to satisfy pension contribution requirements: A comparison of Mexico and Uruguay

Comparing Mexico and Uruguay, this article examines the work history of workers and the challenges they face to satisfy the minimum contribution period for eligibility to receive a contributory old-age pension. Administrative data on work histories is used to formulate a survival model aimed at estimating hazard rates of entering and transitioning out of a given contribution status. This model is then used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast contribution histories. Results suggest that the hazard rate is negatively associated with the length of a worker’s spell in his or her current status and warn that, both in Mexico and Uruguay, a significant group of workers will find it difficult to gain entitlement to a contributory pension in old age. The manner in which each of these national systems has addressed the challenges associated with low contribution densities may explain the two countries’ very different coverage results.