Mortality analysis of persons with disabilities in Argentina by age,sex and duration of benefit, 2015–16

This article describes the differential mortality of Argentina’s disability pension beneficiaries during the 2015–16 period, based on National Social Security Administration (Administración Nacional de la Seguridad Social – ANSES) payment records. It compares data for those with an assessed disability with overall population data, as well as with available international data (from Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States of America). In addition to breaking down mortality rates for people with disabilities by age and sex, it also factors in duration of benefit, establishing an inverse correlation between benefit duration and mortality.     

The Work Profiler: Revision and maintenance of a profiling tool for the recently unemployed in the Netherlands

For the public employment services of many Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the importance of using profiling tools for job seekers is increasing rapidly in importance. With this trend, there is also widening concern about the risks of an over reliance on such tools. Part of the concern lies with a lack of transparency concerning how such tools work. This article aims to address this by offering a detailed investigation of the Work Profiler – the instrument used in the Netherlands by the Institute for Employee Benefits (Uitvoeringsinstituut Werknemersverzekeringen – UWV) to predict re-employment success and provide a diagnosis of key factors hindering job seekers’ return to work. Professionals use these insights to deepen their understanding of the situation of job seekers and decide together with job seekers how to support their return to work. UWV decided to maintain and revise the Work Profiler through a large-scale study involving a sample of 53,238 people. Work Profiler 1.0 was developed in 2007–2010 and has been in use on a regional basis since 2011 and nationwide since 2015. This article explains how the new tool (version 2.0; implemented in 2018) works and, most importantly, demonstrates the choices made to ensure that it functions well and is used effectively by professionals. These latter two aspects are rarely discussed in the literature.     

Work histories and workers’ failure to satisfy pension contribution requirements: A comparison of Mexico and Uruguay

Comparing Mexico and Uruguay, this article examines the work history of workers and the challenges they face to satisfy the minimum contribution period for eligibility to receive a contributory old-age pension. Administrative data on work histories is used to formulate a survival model aimed at estimating hazard rates of entering and transitioning out of a given contribution status. This model is then used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast contribution histories. Results suggest that the hazard rate is negatively associated with the length of a worker’s spell in his or her current status and warn that, both in Mexico and Uruguay, a significant group of workers will find it difficult to gain entitlement to a contributory pension in old age. The manner in which each of these national systems has addressed the challenges associated with low contribution densities may explain the two countries’ very different coverage results.     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

The decline of substitute pathways into retirement: Empirical evidence from the Dutch health care sector

Early retirement schemes and disability insurance in the Netherlands have undergone several reforms in recent decades. The reforms have increased incentives for older workers to continue working and have decreased the roles of “substitute pathways” into retirement. This article gives an overview of the reforms and, using administrative data for workers in the health care sector, tests a number of hypotheses about the labour market participation of older workers. The results offer two main findings: i) that the Dutch reforms have indeed been effective, as the labour force participation rate of older workers has increased; and ii) the concept of “substitute pathways” has become less relevant as the use of disability insurance has been closed off as an exit route to early retirement. Nevertheless, caution is required before generalizing the implications of these Dutch findings to other OECD countries.     

The expected impact of the 2019 Brazilian pension reform on survivors’ pensions

This study analyses the expected changes in survivors’ pensions resulting from the permanent rules of the 2019 pension reform in Brazil. Actuarial annuities are used for representative worker profiles. The dispersion in the replacement rate values decreases, except for the highest income level. The rates needed to finance survivors’ pensions decrease relatively more than do the rates for old-age pensions. The internal rates of return significantly decrease. There is a heterogeneous change in the distributive aspects of the pension system. The reform shall affect the adequacy and intragenerational equity of old-age and survivors’ pensions.     

Explaining differences in unemployment benefit takeup between labour migrants and Dutch native workers

The large increase in Eastern European migrants entering the Dutch labour market has led to concerns about their potential claim on Dutch unemployment benefits. We use a decomposition analysis to investigate differences in uptake of unemployment benefits between migrants and native Dutch employees by analysing register data for all employees in the Netherlands in 2015. The results show that Eastern European migrants, similar to other migrants, receive unemployment benefit more often than native Dutch employees. This difference can be largely ascribed to job characteristics. The inclusion of unemployment risk in the analysis reveals that non-working migrants are much less likely to receive unemployment benefits than Dutch natives.     

Employment Exits and the Race Gap in Young Women's Employment*

Objective. A race gap in employment that disadvantages young African‐American women has emerged for the first time in U.S. history. This article addresses the extent to which race differences in employment entry, exits, or both are responsible for the gap. Methods. The article relies on event‐history analysis using NLSY data. Results. Analyses show that differences in rates of exit, not entry, explain the race gap. Factors encouraging higher exit rates among African‐American than white women include lower AFQT scores and greater numbers of children. Conclusion. These findings raise questions about the utility of focusing on employment processes at the point of employment entry, at least for processes involving young women. The importance of exits in understanding race differences in women's employment calls attention to processes within firms that present barriers to African‐American women.     

低保对象为何退保难?动态分析策略下的退保模式及其变迁趋势研究

本文基于民政部2014年“中国城乡困难家庭社会政策支持系统建设”调查的数据，运用事件史分析方法，对城市低保接受时长和退保影响因素进行探究。研究发现，低保对象的救助接受时间呈现明显的长期化特点，但随着低保接受时间的延长，低保对象退保风险会逐渐上升。这与“时间依赖论”关于长期化救助接受会逐渐弱化救助对象工作伦理，进而造成救助退出可能性逐步下降的理论预设恰好相反，说明中国城市低保对象退保难与工作积极性下降无关。进一步的研究发现，弱势化的低保人口构成及就业救助服务缺失是长期低保接受的重要原因。此外，中国的非正规就业结构也对退保构成显著的不利影响，不过，该影响随着时代的发展在不断减弱。     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

The effects on intra‐generational inequality of introducing a funded pension scheme: A microsimulation analysis for Estonia

This article uses a single male cohort microsimulation model to analyse the intra‐generational and distributional effects of a shift in Estonia from a defined benefit pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension system to a multi‐pillared system with a PAYG scheme with contribution‐based insurance components and a funded pension scheme. We contribute to the literature on microsimulation by showing how introducing contribution‐based insurance components and compulsory defined contribution (DC) schemes can increase pension inequality. Our results show that in the case of a high level of inequality in labour earnings and high long‐term unemployment rates, such as in Estonia, the introduction of a very strong link between contributions and future benefits leads to considerably higher inequality in pension incomes as measured by the Gini coefficient. Simulation results for Estonia suggest that inequality in old‐age pension incomes more than doubles when the reforms mature. In contrast, the inequality in replacement rates decreases.     

How fair are unemployment benefits? The experience of East Asia

Despite an increasing emphasis on active labour market measures, unemployment benefits still remain a focal point of employment protection. This article takes the cases of four East Asian economies – China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Taiwan (China) –, which are often characterized as having welfare states with a strong developmental and productivist orientation, to investigate whether, as is sometimes argued, unemployment benefits are restrictive and exclusionary. In doing so, it examines the logic behind the design of unemployment benefits and argues that they are in fact progressive in design and fair when they pay out. Nonetheless, low effective coverage and low benefit rates weaken their redistribution and compensation objectives.     

Effective retirement age from employment and full‐time employment,and the impact of the 2008 crisis

Estimates of effective retirement age based on labour force participation rates are commonly used for actuarial experience review and policy development. However, the transition from work to retirement and the socio‐economic environment have evolved over the years, influenced by a growing role for gradual retirement and the labour market impact of the 2008 economic crisis. Rather than focusing exclusively on retirement ages based on labour force participation rates, this article presents complementary estimates of retirement ages to better assess the effective retirement age from employment. It also introduces the concept of retirement from full‐time employment, showing that the retirement age from full‐time employment is systematically lower than the retirement age from employment. The results reveal that the trend towards an increase in the retirement age has been impacted by economic conditions when considering the effective employment of older workers. Results are presented for different Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development over the period 2005–2015.     

A call for more elaborate and transparent pension data to inform policy‐making: A critical examination of World Bank data for Eastern Europe

This article offers a critical analysis of the methods by means of which data relating to the performance of second pillar pension schemes are collated, compared and reported. This is done with regard to the performance of mandatory private second pillar pension funds in Eastern Europe. By critically examining data published in a number of World Bank studies, and through the identification of data problems and irregularities, the article argues that a much more elaborate and transparent approach to the collation, comparative analysis and reporting of data is needed. Required is the establishment of a consensus regarding what should represent a robust basis for making credible policy recommendations, not least with regard to pension re‐reforms in the countries of Eastern Europe and elsewhere. In the absence of such a consensus, unresolved data problems and irregularities may potentially continue to influence the formulation of incomplete national policy conclusions regarding the performance of second pillar pension funds and, in turn, the ability of policy‐makers to evaluate appropriately the need for, and assess the feasibility of implementing in a sustainable manner, pension re‐reform.     

Expanding social health protection in Cambodia: An assessment of the current coverage potential and gaps,and social equity considerations

The Royal Government of Cambodia recently launched its National Social Protection Policy framework to strengthen and expand social security and assistance. To inform social health protection policy, we examine socio-economic survey data and administrative coverage data to assess the coverage potential of existing coverage mechanisms and current gaps; and compare equitable contribution rates. Over 53 per cent of the population currently has no social health protection coverage mechanism, and about 16 per cent of the population who do have access to a mechanism are not yet enrolled. Current expansion efforts focus on the formal employee scheme, primarily benefiting individuals from higher income households. In addition, recent coverage expansion to some informal workers leaves significant gaps, particularly among the informal sector. We find out-of-pocket health care expenditure to be an excessive share of income among lower wealth quintile individuals and conclude they are financially vulnerable. Finally, we illustrate that an equitable approach to individual, monthly health care contributions among the lower three quintiles has a severely limited potential for revenue generation, and collection costs could exceed the amount collected. Therefore, we recommend that vulnerable groups should be exempted from contribution payments as social health protection is expanded.     

Adjustment mechanisms and intergenerational actuarial neutrality in pension reforms

In the context of the reform of defined benefit pension systems under population ageing, we focus on the introduction of automatic adjustment mechanisms linked to life expectancy. Our goal is to establish a relationship between changes in the key parameters of the pension system and changes in life expectancy, applying the principle of intergenerational actuarial neutrality. For a defined benefit pension scheme, we first obtain the fundamental adjustment equation and then, for particular cases, we derive different designs of automatic adjustment mechanisms depending on the involved parameter. We include a numerical application only for illustrative purposes.     

Second‐pillar pensions in Central and Eastern Europe: Payment constraints and exit options

During 1998–2007, a majority of Central and Eastern European (CEE) governments enacted laws obligating workers to save for retirement in privately managed individual accounts. The governments funded these accounts with a portion of public pension revenues, thus creating or increasing deficits in public systems. After the onset of the global financial and economic crisis (2008), most CEE governments reduced these funding diversions and scaled back the accounts. Now, a decade after the crisis, this article examines the benefits that the accounts are beginning to pay retiring workers. In general, these benefits are shown to be disadvantageous compared with public pensions. Some pay lump sums in lieu of regular monthly benefits, most fail to adjust pensions regularly for inflation, and some pay women less than men with equal account balances. In several countries, pensioners with individual accounts receive lower benefits than those without them. To enable retiring workers to avoid these disadvantages, several CEE governments have allowed them to refund their account balances and receive full public pensions. Yet while this strategy diffuses worker dissatisfaction, it also places strains on public pension finance. To assist second‐pillar account holders without weakening public pensions, governments should consider making private pension savings voluntary and financing these schemes independently of public pensions – i.e. by worker and employer contributions and, possibly, direct state support.     

Domestic violence,housing and employment: Workers' perspectives on employment assistance in supported accommodation

In response to contemporary understanding about the association between financial security and women's ability to escape domestic violence and homelessness, this paper reports on a small scale pilot study conducted with workers from generalist homelessness services and domestic violence‐supported accommodation services in South Australia on responding to women's requests for assistance to seek employment. Workers from both accommodation service types advised that approximately one third of women at their services asked for employment‐related assistance at the point of service intake or soon after. Although relatively few women received employment support following their requests, assistance was four times more likely at the generalist homelessness services than the domestic violence services. Agency priorities, philosophies and workers' assessments of women's capacity to engage in employment were cited as reasons for not responding to women's employment requests. Women who secured employment prior to service exit, whether helped to do so or not, were perceived as more confident with the prospect of supporting their families independently following exit and more able to secure suitable housing when compared to other women. Follow‐up and outreach visits indicated that women who worked had a stronger sense of financial security, housing stability and social connectedness, but that maintaining employment following service exit was difficult.     

Lessons from China on different approaches to pension coverage extension

Achieving universal pension coverage is both an aspiration and a challenge for many developing economies. Traditional contributory schemes are less effective in extending pension coverage to workers who are not in the formal sectors of the economy. As an alternative, non‐contributory schemes have gained popularity in recent years. China’s pension reforms mirror this global trend. The introduction of a contribution‐based pension scheme for urban employees (Employees’ Pension) was followed by a scheme for rural and urban residents (Residents’ Pension), which is partly government financed and partly contributory, with multiple options for premium payment. This study uses nationally representative survey data collected in 2016 to compare the inclusiveness of the two schemes. It finds that access to the Residents’ Pension scheme is more equal than the Employees’ Pension. Lower status workers in terms of education, employment, income and hukou‐migration are more likely to participate in the Residents’ Pension as opposed to the Employees’ Pension, compared with higher status workers. The Chinese experience suggests that a workable solution for pension extension in low‐ and middle‐income countries is to have a scheme that is flexible, affordable and responsive to the diverse needs of the population.     

Nepal's Child Grant: A mixed‐methods assessment of implementation bottlenecks

This article evaluates the implementation of the Child Grant, one of the major social protection interventions in Nepal, and identifies bottlenecks that limit its ultimate effectiveness. On the whole, while delivery works for many beneficiaries, we found inconsistencies between the way the policy is laid out on paper, and the way it is actually implemented. Targeting efficiency is high, despite the wealth targeting criterion not being applied in practice. Owing to informal awareness‐raising campaigns, beneficiaries’ knowledge on registration, eligibility and entitlement is patchy. Payment levels vary and tend to be infrequent. These implementation bottlenecks limit the Grant's effectiveness and temper some of its impact potential.