The scientific revolution in demography

Since 1960 a debate has taken place between demographers and natural scientists over projections of world population into the future and the methods appropriate for making projections. Underlying this debate is a disagreement over the factors which influence human population growth. To the usual factors of fertility and mortality the natural scientists emphasize the human population's ability to communicate and thereby to enlarge available resources. Also at issue are different philosophies concerning the manipulation of data. The debate between demographers and natural scientists bears many of the features of a scientific revolution as described by Thomas Kuhn. The new theory also meets the criterion of scientific growth contained in the correspondence principle. The theories used by demographers and natural scientists have political implications, since the demographers assume stability whereas the natural scientists observe instability.     

Historical demography: achievements and prospects

Historical demography as a separate discipline came into existence when family reconstruction was first developed for the analysis of a pre-transition population. This paper assesses the significant achievements made in this field of population studies since then. Attention is also paid to equally significant findings obtained from aggregative analysis based on back projection, and to a large body of research results for the period of the demographic transition. In the last part of the paper, new research directions are discussed. Data issues as well as methodological ones are raised. Special attention is given to newly emerging Asian historical demography where different source materials require different methods and techniques, which in turn are expected to broaden the scope of the so far disproportionality fertility-oriented field. Finally, discussions are extended to economic, cultural and institutional aspects of the subject, with a plea not to isolate demographic analysis from other branches of historical research.     

Features of the demography of Palestine

The objections which Dr Bromberger raises against official vital statistics in Palestine are considered by the author in this paper, and Dr Bromberger's methods of estimation are carefully examined. While defects in the statement of ages and some under-registration of Moslem deaths are admitted, the conclusion is reached that there is no inherent inconsistency in the published figures, and that any errors would not affect the differential rates of growth of the Arab and Jewish populations.     

The demography of the unrelated individual: 1900–1950

This article is an analysis of the frequency and characteristics of unrelated individuals between 1900 and 1950. The much-heralded rise of the primary individual during the 20th century has been offset by a decline in the frequency of secondary individuals. The overall percentage of persons residing without family did not exceed turn-of-the-century levels until the 1970s. Using data from national micro data samples of the census for 1900, 1940, and 1950, the study applies decomposition techniques and life-course analysis to investigate these patterns. The results show that the decline of the secondary individual from 1900 to 1950 was largely a function of changing demographic composition, but the increase of primary individuals is linked to changing residential preferences.     

Australian demography at the millennium

This paper looks backwards over the last ten years to see what topics might concern Australian demographers in the future. The possibility of convergence or ’sameness’ is considered, but not proven. The main areas considered are historical demography, mortality, fertility, marriage, fertility regulation, internal migration, international migration, human resources, ageing, forecasting, the family life cycle, policy, and gender.     

The contours of demography: Estimates and projections

This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.     

French demography in the Eighteenth Century

There are many people who, in studying the past, ask for no more than to satisfy their curiosity. It would be unjust to imply any disparagement in such a statement. Intellectual curiosity is the specific characteristic of the inquiring man, in whatever province he makes use of his faculties; it is, in a way, his reason for existence. He therefore requires no excuse when his curiosity naturally leads him to study the period which saw the birth and growth of his own field of work. After all, to relate the history of demography is, at the same time, to write a chapter in the general history of the development of ideas. There is no doubt that the task is worth undertaking.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

对"溺婴"的人口社会学分析

文章通过对溺婴行为的界定分析了溺婴的原因及产生的社会后果,并对如何抑制这种现象作了进一步的探讨。     

The demography of the Kuwaiti population of Kuwait

Kuwait has experienced a dramatic rise in national income since 1945, and its material standard of living is as high as that of any country in the world. The national population (Kuwaitis) is a stable and almost closed population comprising 45 percent of the total population of the state. The Kuwaitis, readily separable from the immigrant population, both de facto and de jure, have a very low level of mortality but retain their traditionally high level of fertility. It is suggested that this largely unaltered pattern of fertility is a function of the peculiar form of economic development to which Kuwait has been subjected and of the strongly pro-natalist pressures associated with Arabic Islam.     

Finite approximations in demography

Abstract Conventions exist for carrying out the arithmetic of population projection, finding the intrinsic rate of natural increase, and other demographic calculations. These are good approximations only for populations which are stationary or increasing very slowly. For rapidly increasing populations, which are presently the subject of much study, they can be readily improved. The improved formulae take account of the way in which the increase shifts the distribution of population within the five-year age group. A number of examples are given of the derivation of corrections to existing formulae. While the corrections are smaller than the error of the data available for most countries, such formulae are worth introducing in anticipation of better data. They in no way depend on machine computation, but the computer makes them especially easy to apply.     

Historical demography in Venezuela

The authors provide information on selected sources of demographic data for Venezuela for two historical periods: the pre-statistical years from the beginning of Spanish colonization to the early 1870s and the period from 1870 to the present. A brief bibliography is included