ESCAP migration study gathers momentum

A comparative study is being conducted in the ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) region on the relationships of migration and urbanization to development. The 1st stage of the study will entail the preparation of country reports on the census analysis of migration, urbanization and development. The 2nd stage will involve preparation of a series of national migration surveys. The 3rd phase will involve assisting member governments to formulate a comprehensive population redistribution policy as part of their national development planning. 1st-phase country reports have been completed in Sri Lanka, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Migration in Sri Lanka has largely been rural-to-rural with little urbanization so far. The picture in South Korea has been the opposite, with rapid urbanization in the 1960s and 1970s; the government is hoping to divert some population to smaller cities away from Seoul. The pattern in the Philippines is 1 of urban primacy with the metropolis of Manila accounting for over 1/3 of the country's total population. Indonesia is characterized by a dense heartland in the Java-Bali regions. However, the rate of urbanization here has been slower. Migrants in all the countries studied are preponderantly young. The sex differential varies from country to country. The influence of migration on subsequent fertility is unknown.     

A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

Population trends and differentials in countries of the ESCAP region

The total population of the ESCAP region reached 2.4 billion in 1979, up from 2 billion in 1970. 6 of the 10 largest countries are in the region: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. East Asia contains 1.1 billion; Middle South Asia contains 923 million; Eastern South Asia, 354 million; and Oceania, 22 million. The crude birth rate for the total region dropped by 5 points from 1970-9; the crude death rate dropped by 2 points, resulting in a decline in the annual growth rate of .3 percentage points, from 2.1% in 1970 to 1.8% in 1979. Overall, the total fertility rate decreased by 15% from 4.8 to 4.1. The total fertility rate in Australia fell 33% from 2.8 to 1.9 and in New Zealand from 3.0 to 1.9, or 37%. Generally fertility is lower in urban areas than in rural with some exceptions. A strong negative relationship between level of education and fertility exists in all countries of Asia and the Pacific, however, the parity of women with some primary education exceeds that of women with no schooling. Life expectancy at birth for both sexes in the region increased from 55.1 years in 1970 to 58.7 years in 1979, or by 7%. The highest life expectancy is in Japan at 75.2 years. The infant mortality rate in the ESCAP region in 1979 was estimated to be 78/1000. World Fertility Survey data indicate that the mean age of first marriage is generally very low but gradually increasing.     

Comparative study on demographic-economic model-building for three selected countries of the ESCAP region

The research project involves building models for 3 selected ESCAP countries, Indonesia, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, which are at different stages of demographic transition. This project involves country level research workd esigned, implemented, and monitored with the assistance of ESCAP. Accordingly the 1st Study Directors' Meeting was held in Bangkok during November 16-30, 1979 in a series of informal interactive working sessions for Study Directors, modelling experts, and resource persons. The participants were Study Directors from the above mentioned countries and a few experts from Malaysia, Thailand, ILO, UNRISD, and IBRD. The main objective of the meeting was to help finance the basic model framework in order that National Study Directors will be able to commence their modelling work after the Meeting. As evidenced by the Report of the 1st Study Directors' Meeting, this objective was achieved. Following this meeting, the 3 case studies are being simultaneously undertaken in countries by national study teams with technical support provided by ESCAP.     

Some aspects of the relationship between the levels of infant mortality and fertility in the ESCAP region

The death of a child within the first year of life is a crucial factor in fertility decisions in a developing country. The infant mortality rate gives a close, inverse indication of the socioeconomic conditions of a country. This paper presents studies by Brass, Rutherford, Chowdhury, Khan and Chen, Agrawal, Iskander and Jones, in summary/abstract form. It concludes that the probabilities of survival are poorer for births of older women and/or higher parities. Early child deaths may increase the total period of exposure to the risk of conception. A lower infant and child mortality norm calls for fewer births to meet the needs for survivors. Child replacement motivational response seems to be strongest with the birth immediately following a death event. Agrawal analyzed the interval between successive births of 1107 women of Patna, Pakistan, according to the age of mother and sex and fate of the previous child. He observed that if a child died shortly after its birth, often a new pregnancy began within a short interval. The interval between 2 consecutive live births when the previous child was male and alive was greater than when the previous child was female and alive. The interval between 2 births was reduced if the child died in infancy and specially if this was a male child.     

International migration of professionals

Abstract Using chiefly data published by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service this paper presents a statistical summary of the trends in professional immigration into the United States. The proportion of immigrants who are professionals has been steadily increasing during recent decades, and change in immigration laws produced a sharper increase since 1965. The second trend of importance is the increasing proportion of professional immigrants who come from the less developed nations of the world. The effects of immigration on American science and medicine are discussed. Important benefits appear to have accrued to the U.S. The effects on the countries of origin are less beneficial. Finally, the reasons behind the migration of professionals are discussed.     

International migration and national development

"In this review, we examine theories, data, and research on the macroeconomic relationship between international migration and national development in all world regions. Earlier reviews have generally been pessimistic about the prospects for economic development as a result of international migration. Until recently, however, theories and data have not recognized the complex, multifaceted, and often indirect ways that international migration can influence the economic status of households, communities, and nations, and they have generally failed to appreciate how these relationships can change over time. When these complexities are incorporated into theoretical models, research designs, and data collection, a more nuanced and far more positive picture emerges. Given a supportive mix of macroeconomic policies and infrastructure, international migration may function as a dynamic force promoting economic growth and national development, so long as it does not bring about the selective emigration of scarce human capital needed for development at home."     

International migration: a global challenge

Trends in international migration are presented in this multiregional analysis. Seven of the world's wealthiest countries have about 33% of the world's migrant population, but under 16% of the total world population. Population growth in these countries is substantially affected by the migrant population. The migration challenge is external and internal. The external challenge is to balance the need for foreign labor and the commitment to human rights for those migrants seeking economic opportunity and political freedom. The internal challenge is to assure the social adjustment of immigrants and their children and to integrate them into society as citizens and future leaders. Why people cross national borders and how migration flows are likely to evolve over the next decades are explained. This report also presents some ways that countries can manage migration or reduce the pressures which force people to migrate. It is recommended that receiving nations control immigration by accelerating global economic growth and reducing wars and human rights violations. This report examines the impact of immigration on international trade, aid, and direct intervention policies. Although migration is one of the most important international economic issues, it is not coordinated by an international group. The European experience indicates that it is not easy to secure international cooperation on issues that affect national sovereignty. It is suggested that countries desiring control of their borders should remember that most people never cross national borders to live or work in another country, that 50% of the world's migrants move among developing countries, and that countries can shift from being emigration to immigration countries. The author suggests that sustained reductions in migration pressure are a better alternative than the "quick fixes" that may invite the very much feared mass and unpredictable movements.     

A Regional Symposium on Aging in ESCAP Region

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Focus on self-reliance at ESCAP: thirty-third session of the Commission

The 33rd session of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) met at Bangkok in April 1977. 5 recurring themes of the conference discussions are: 1) the need for more rapid development, 2) the need for an integration of social justice into development schemes, 3) integrate rural development, 4) self-reliance, and 5) cooperative efforts. The meeting participants reviewed progress in the population field in the countries which concern the Commission (ESCAP). Decisions were taken to continue integration of U.N. activities in rural development, to foster cooperation among participant nations, to foster agricultural and trade cooperation, and to encourage more participation by developing island countries of the Pacific in the work of ESCAPP     

International migration and development in mexican communities

The theoretical and empirical literature generally regards international migration as producing a cycle of dependency and stunted development in sending communities. Most migrants’ earnings are spent on consumption; few funds are channeled into productive investment. We argue that this view is misleading because it ignores the conditions under which productive investment is likely to be possible and profitable. We analyze the determinants of migrants’ savings and remittance decisions, using variables defined at the individual, household, community, and macroeconomic levels. We identify the conditions under which U.S. earnings are repatriated to Mexico as remittances and savings, and indicate the factors leading to their productive investment.     

International labor migration and domestic labor supply

Prominent among the variety of issues raised by the immigration of labor are its effects on domestic wage rates and labor supply. In contrast to the existing literature, this paper constructs a dynamic, general equilibrium framework to study the relationship between international labor migration and domestic labor supply. The general equilibrium nature of the model enables us to endogenize the pattern of labor migration. The effect of labor migration on domestic wage rates and labor supply is shown to depend on the pattern of labor migration. If the substitution effect dominates the income effect in labor supply, the domestic supply of labor necessarily decreases in response to an inflow of migrants. This happens even if immigrants, through their savings behavior, cause an increase in the domestic capital-labor ratio and wage rate. Similarly, if the dominant effect is the income effect, the immigration of labor necessarily increases the domestic supply of labor.I wish to thank Oded Galor, Harl Ryder, Kalpana Kochhar and two referees for valuable comments. The opinions expressed in this paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Joel Popkin and Company.     

International migration of Koreans and the Korean community in China

"This paper examines the background and trends of the overseas migration of Koreans, which started in the late 19th century because of economic, political, and social conditions in the Korean peninsula. Major characteristics and problems of Korean communities overseas are also discussed using China as an example."     

International migration: From backwaters to high politics

Population and Environment -     

International migration and labor force participation of married women

A focal issue in international immigration research has been immigration adaptation and assimilation and especially absorption and integration of immigrants into labor force roles. Nevertheless, such research has largely been focused on immigrant men, neglecting the systematic examination of labor force participation among immigrant women. This research is focused on the correlates of economic activity among immigrant and native born Jewish, urban, married females aged 18–54 in Israel. The specific objectives of the investigation are: (1) the impact of education, socioeconomic status, familial child care burdens, and ethnic background on the economic activity of native-born and immigrant, married women; and (2) to evaluate the extent to which the above patterns vary by veterancy and age. The data for this analysis are drawn from Israel's quarterly labor force survey of 6,000 families for 1970 and 1971. Education, socioeconomic status, ethnic origin, and child care burden were all found to have some effect on women's labor force participation; however, the pattern of effect was different for younger and older women and varied by veterancy status. Indications can be found in the data that age at immigration, or in other words the point in the women's life cycle at which immigration occurs, makes a difference in the type and strength of effect of immigration on labor force participation.Requests for reprints should be directed to Moshe Hartman, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, Utah 84322.     

International labor migration and social security: Analysis of the transition path

This paper numerically simulates a two-country overlapping-generations model to study international labor migration when the two countries are characterized by different social-security systems. The present analysis extends previous work beyond steady-state considerations. The most striking result is that in all cases considered, dynamically efficient and inefficient economies in autarkic steady-state, migration leads to temporary welfare losses in both countries. In all cases, the transition path is characterized by temporary dynamic inefficiency in one country.All correspondence to Doris Geide-Stevenson. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. We are responsible for any remaining errors. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

Summary statistics on indenture and associated migration affecting the West Indies, 1834-1918

Abstract This paper presents summary statistics of immigration into the West Indies, under indenture or government sponsorship, during the period 1834-1918. The sources reveal a few discrepancies, but are sufficiently consistent to permit the construction of a series for each of the ethnic groups introduced. Most of the problems involved in constructing these series centre around the fact that a variety of sources have to be utilised. Immigration figures of East Indians, Portuguese, Chinese, Europeans and others into the several West Indian colonies have been prepared for each calendar year or season, but to conserve space are presented here in summary form. In the case of African immigration it is possible to give their country of origin. The only group of immigrants who were involved in return movements of any consequence are the East Indians.     

International migration and economic growth: a source country perspective

This study analyzes the impact of international migration on economic growth of a source country in a stochastic setting. The model accounts for endogenous fertility decisions and distinguishes between public and private schooling systems. We find that economic growth crucially depends on the international migration since the migration possibility will affect fertility decisions and school expenditures. Relaxation of restrictions on the emigration of high-skilled workers will damage the economic growth of a source country in the long run, although a ‘brain gain’ may happen in the short run. Furthermore, the growth rate of a source country under a private education regime will be more sensitive to the probability of migration than a country under a public education regime.

International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows

In this paper, I empirically investigate the determinants of migration inflows into 14 OECD countries by country of origin between 1980 and 1995. I analyze the effect on migration of average income and income dispersion in destination and origin countries. I also examine the impact of geographical, cultural, and demographic factors as well as the role played by changes in destination countries’ migration policies. My analysis both delivers estimates consistent with the predictions of the international migration model and generates empirical puzzles.