Demography in China: from zero to now

After 20 years of neglect the study of population and demography in China have come to be considered imperative. China has even accepted $50 million from the UN Fund for Population Activities to defray the cost of the 1982 census and help pay for action, training, and research programs. Institutions directed toward population studies have been established in many provinces during the 1970s. The principal types are population training and research institutes and offices within institutions of higher learning. In addition institutes outside the system of higher education and special units of population studies in various medical colleges were initiated. Between 1957-77 the large increase in population began to cause economic problems which were not admitted until the late 1970s. Since 1979 the country's efforts to lower the level of fertility have been organized in major policy statements calling for 1 child/couple and a rate of natural increase causing zero population growth by the year 2000. The Institute of Population Research was created in 1974 and it has provided population projections that have helped form population policy with a major focus on historical stages of growth in China as well as counteracting the lopsided population optimism which existed earlier. In 1978 a conference was held on the science of population theory which identified areas for study such as: 1) population and economics, 2) capitalist population theories, 3) population policies, 4) family planning and economics, and 5) population problems in foreign countries. The author describes some of the literature which was published after the 1978 conference and the reappearance of academic journals in 1979 as well as the 1979 conference. 1980 and 1981 studies dealt with such topics as debates on Malthusian theory, zero population growth, urban and rural populations, historical demography, housing, employment, health improvement of the population, minorities, and fertility determinants. Chinese scholars have also begun to cooperate with their foreign colleagues in a variety of studies. In order to illustrate the wide variety of directions which Chinese population studies are taking the author provides a bibliography of population studies from 1977-81.     

“Lingering effects” of discrimination: tracing persistence over time in local populations

The broad principle that historical injustice may call for corrective remedies in today’s world poses new and interesting challenges for applied demographers. I illustrate applications of demographic analysis to examine how former policies and practices produced effects that persist (or linger on) among members of a contemporary population. Such effects involve populations at different times and places and posit causal mechanisms that can be examined and evaluated. Applying standard demographic concepts and thinking to these issues can clarify and sharpen public understanding of whether past experiences still matter and precisely for whom, and whether proposed corrective remedies under the law are feasible.Revision of paper presented at the 2003 meetings of the Population Association of America, Session 1103, “Beyond Basics: Estimating and Projecting Characteristics Other Than Age, Sex, and Race.”     

Demographers’ Involvement in Twentieth-Century Population Policy: Continuity or Discontinuity?

The second half of the twentieth century witnessed the development of a crusading spirit and massive technical aid aimed at reducing fertility levels and rates of population growth in developing countries, and also the involvement of demographers in these events. The demographers at Princeton University’s Office of Population Research, Frank Notestein and his colleagues, have been singled out by recent authors as playing a unique role in bringing about these changes, and they have been criticized for encouraging demographers to become involved, so eroding their scientific objectivity. This paper examines the development of relevant population thought and theory in the English-language literature over the first half of the twentieth century. It concludes that in the circumstances of the second half of the twentieth century, it was inevitable that developed countries and their demographers would become involved in controlling fertility levels in developing countries. The OPR story should be seen largely in terms of how the world’s leading demographic center and its demographic transition theory were swept along by global changes. As those developments started, attitudes to population change in densely settled Asia became Malthusian, even as population growth accompanied by mortality decline in Asia demonstrated that, at least in the short term, the positive checks were disappearing.     

Biosocial models of demographic behavior: An introduction

A workshop on biosocial models of demographic behavior was organized to provide information to members of the Social Sciences and Population Study Section (SSP), the group entrusted by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) with the responsibility for conducting the first level of peer review of demographic applications submitted to NIH for possible funding. Some of the variables studies by demographers are biological, e.g., fertility, fecundity, morbidity, and mortality, so demographers are not unaware of biological variables. However, they tend to treat biological variables as something to be explained by social, economic, and psychological factors rather than to be integrated into an explanatory paradigm. This workshop contains papers that focus upon various stages of the life cycle and explore the importance of biosocial variables in explaining selected aspects of human behavior.This introduction presents an overview of the topics covered by the authors of the papers presented and the workshop, and is based upon opening remarks at the DRG Workshop on Biosocial Models of Demographic Behavior, Bethesda, MD, 12 October 1994.     

The population debate: A survey of opinions of a professional organization's membership

In analyzing results of a survey concerning population issues taken among members of an organization devoted to the scientific study of population, namely, the Population Association of America, we found high agreement that: (1) world population growth was much too high, (2) many of today's serious problems are caused by overpopulation, and (3) the U.S. should help any requesting country establish programs to curtail growth. There was no consensus, however, on issues such as: (1) ideal population size, (2) family planning as the most reasonable means of reducing population growth, (3) the need to initiate coercive birth control immediately, (4) redistribution of resources as a long-term solution to overpopulation, (5) how to solve population problems in time to avoid widespread catastrophe, and (6) whether the U.S. should exert pressure on other countries to establish a family planning program as a prerequisite to economic aid. These findings apply with few exceptions to four subcategories of members defined on the basis of extent of demographic training and employment.     

The research of population science must initiate a new situation]

The basis for initiating a new situation in population research lies in Hu Yaobang's address at the 12th National Congress when he said that the population problem is of extreme importance and that birth control is a basic national policy. The rapid population growth, he continued, influences income, food, clothing, shelter, education and work, and it might even influence the stability of a society. Thus, birth control work, particularly in the countryside, must never be lax. But if the work is done well, then population control can be successful. There already exists a good basis for population research. Since the 1970s, demography developed rapidly, whether it was in population theory, population control, disseminating information, training cadres for census work, projecting population, or in developing professional relationships on an international level. The Population Association of China, established in 1981, was followed by population associations in the provinces, cities, and autonomous regions. In the last 2 years, the Population Association of China convened 5 specialized meetings. Currently China has a Population Research Center and 217 offices, plus demographic studies at the People's University and Fudan University. In initiating a new situation in demography, one should study new situations, sum up new experiences, and solve new problems. The national policy is to control population numbers and raise population quality. This can be done by educating peasants that female babies are worthwhile, protecting mothers who bear female babies, and encouraging eugenics.     

Birth planning on many fronts: personal glimpses of innovations in China's Population Programme

The national birth planning program was initiated in 1965 in China with the establishment of a general office for family planning. Birth planning offices exist at the provincial, district, county, and municipal levels. Shanghai, in particular, is cited as 1 locale with a very active birth planning program with publicity campaigns and education reinforced by a national system of incentives. There is also a disincentive measure aimed at those with 2 children who have a 3rd--each parent must forfeit 10% of their monthly wage to the government. The ESCAP mission was told that few were expected to be so penalized since education and propaganda had become more efficient since 1974. Likewise, the province of Guangdong established an incentives/disincentives program with the guiding philosophy being that birth planning, education, ideology, and incentives exist in order to help solve practical problems. Once again in China the significance of population programs has been recognized and the study of population is being reinstituted in universities. The Chinese Academy of Sciences is developing a center for population research in Beijing along with an information center for the purposes of academic and applied research. Beijing University is creating a population studies program in the Economics Department with input from other departments. The municipality of Shanghai has established the Population Research Society while in Guangdong a similar such organization was established in September 1979, with areas of concentration in legal aspects of population change and zero population growth by 2000. Population studies is also being organized at Dr. Sun Yat Sen University and Jie-Nan University.     

MPS views on population growth

This article features the different views of Parliament members concerning the need in the reduction of population growth for development sustenance. Population growth would lead to environmental degradation, malnutrition, diseases, and high incidence of poverty. Furthermore, social problems arise like teenage pregnancies, and abuse of young girls. Suggestions on curtailing this problem as suggested by some of the parliament members includes educating people on issues of migration, family planning and reproductive health. Other members suggested on family planning legislation, like in the case of China where population explosion exists. Further, members thought that advocacy for population control such as condom usage targeting to couples having large families should be catered. However, this was denounced by some members as a failure and should not be sanctioned at large family couples but rather to husband with several wives. Finally, a compromised view was directed on population management with poverty alleviation involving the provision of amenities such as water, electricity, good roads, potable water, and income generating activities.     

城市规模成长经济的边际分析

城市人口规模的成长经济效益,与城市的人口规模本身所处阶段有关,与人口规模成长的速度有关。城市人口规模成长的经济效益由城市的自组织能力的增长速度与人口规模成长速度的相对关系即缺口决定。城市人口规模的成长经济效益,在一定条件下存在着城市与区域的不一致性,即对城市来说出现了成长不经济,但对区域来说却存在成长经济。     

Our population predicament: a new look

Issued to mark the Population Reference Bureau's 50th anniversary, this issue updates the story of world population presented in its popular predecessor of 1971, "Man's Population Predicament." Estimated at 1/2 billion in 1650, world population reached about 2 billion in 1930, 4 billion in 1975, and is projected to be about 6 billion in 2000. Most of today's rapid growth is occurring among the 3/4 of the world's peoples living in less developed countries where the post-World War II gap between high birth rates and falling death rates has only recently begun to narrow. This growth, coupled with high consumption in developing countries, is putting tremendous pressures on the Earth's resources, environment, and social fabric. New evidence on Europe's population transition and from China, Indonesia, and Thailand in the 1970s suggests that well-designed family planning programs can speed fertility decline but rapid worldwide attainment of replacement level fertility will also require special development efforts and measures that go beyond family planning. Current projections of the world's ultimate peak population range from 8 billion in the mid 21st century to 11 billion in about 2125, depending on when replacement-level fertility is reached. China's drive for a drastic birth rate reduction and the oil crisis might change fertility behavior more rapidly than most demographers have heretofore thought likely.     

CFPA in development

The China Family Planning Association (CFPA) was established in Beijing on May 29th, 1980 as a nongovernment organization. Its purpose and tasks are defined as uniting all the people and activitists involved with family planning to assist the government family planning units in communicating the state principles, policies and tasks on family planning, motivating the people to practice family planning voluntarily, organizing academic activities in family planning in cooperation with the related units, and promoting international exchanges and cooperation. Since its establishment, the CFPA has organized a variety of activities (communication, training, consulting) for promoting communication and education so as to spread among the masses of people the scientific knowledge about contraception, and maternal and child care. The services provided by the associations of various regions in response to the needs of the local people were greatly welcomed and highly appreciated by the people.     

Further research in theories of population being carried out]

The 2nd Chinese Scientific Symposium on Theories of Population was held in Chengdu, Sichuan, on December 7-13, 1979. The symposium was jointly sponsored by the Department of Family Planning of the Chinese Central Government, Chinese Academy of Sociology, Sichuan Provincial Revolutionary Committee (SPRC), and the Institute of Population Theories of the Chinese People's University (IPT). There were 255 attendants, representing 60 academic institutions, 14 scientific research organizations and 31 provincial, municipal, and autonomous regional departments of family planning. The main theme of the meeting was "Population Problems and Their Solutions Facing the Four Modernizations in China." 147 papers were read at the meeting. The meeting opened with a welcoming speech by Comrade Liu Haiquan, Vice-Chairman of SPRC, who pointed out the challenge Chinese family planners would face in advocating the 1 child family policy. Long speeches were made by Comrade Chen Dao who stressed the training of workers for Chinese population research and by Comrade Du Xinyuan (secretary of SPRC) who summarized results on recent family planning efforts in Sichuan. During the meeting, based on their contents, the papers were divided into 7 groups for separate discussions: 1) population development in the socialistic society, 2) relationship between population and economic developments and between population control and the 4 modernizations in China, 3) possible population problems in China, their nature, etiology and methods of solution, 4) population policies and family planning in China, 5) trends in population development and population planning in China, 6) problems of population distribution in China, and 7) development of population theories in China during the past 30 years. The meeting discussions were summarized by Comrade Liu Zheng of IPT who noted that there were 84 more attendants and 110 more papers in this meeting than the first held in 1978.     

The scientific revolution in demography

Since 1960 a debate has taken place between demographers and natural scientists over projections of world population into the future and the methods appropriate for making projections. Underlying this debate is a disagreement over the factors which influence human population growth. To the usual factors of fertility and mortality the natural scientists emphasize the human population's ability to communicate and thereby to enlarge available resources. Also at issue are different philosophies concerning the manipulation of data. The debate between demographers and natural scientists bears many of the features of a scientific revolution as described by Thomas Kuhn. The new theory also meets the criterion of scientific growth contained in the correspondence principle. The theories used by demographers and natural scientists have political implications, since the demographers assume stability whereas the natural scientists observe instability.     

A survey of work done by the China family planning association

The China Family Planning Association was set up in May 1980 as a nongovernmental organization under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Funds come from the government, international organizations, and individual or community donations. 13 branches have been established so far. The Association has contributed to publicity, education, and research: members have given lectures on family planning, genetics, and population theory, and have helped develop contraceptives. The lectures on population problems have been published. In addition, the Association's periodical "Ren Sheng" is published bimonthly, and has a circulation of 125,000. Meeting have been convened for the exchange of information and experience among family planning workers. The Association organized tripartite seminars with IPPF and JOICFP in June and October, 1983. Under the auspices of the Association, 8 trainees have been sent to the David Owen Center in the United Kingdom for a Year's study, and 1 trainee was sent to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The Association was accepted as a full member of the IPPF at the conference held in Nairobi, Kenya, in November, 1983.     

The Contemporary Marriage and Fertility Revolutions in the West the Explanations Provided by Australian Participants

The last half century has witnessed both in Australia, and elsewhere in the West, first a “baby boom” (and marriage boom) and then a “baby bust” (and marriage bust). Economists, demographers, sociologists and social historians, especially in America, have developed theories to explain these phenomena. Presented to the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, 21–23 April 1988.     

Establishing trends in atsic regional council populations using census data: A cautionary note

This paper points out that limitations in official census data for Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders draw into question the validity of trend analysis based on time series data for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC) regional council areas. Accordingly, the meaningful application of projection techniques to estimate future population profiles using existing census data is severely restricted. Among the difficulties encountered in reconstructing council area populations are census boundary changes over time, changes in enumeration techniques and coverage, the problems posed by self-identification and associated population growth, and, in some cases, the difficulty of matching ATSIC regional council boundaries with census geography. Following discussion of these problems, detailed figures showing changes in the size of the Aboriginal and Islander populations and labour force in each council area are presented using 1976 as the base year. As expected, geographic patterns of population and labour-force change are difficult to discern and exact reasons for comparative growth or decline are impossible to determine. The paper concludes that reverse projections for regional council areas using 1991 Census data would provide a more reliable basis for establishing demographic trends. Although not entirely adequate, these reconstructions for ATSIC regional councils are the only estimates of these populations that have been undertaken to date.     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

Parameterizing age patterns of demographic rates with the multiexponential model schedule

"For nearly 200 years actuaries, statisticians, and demographers have sought to summarize the age pattern of mortality rates by means of a limited number of parameters. Such 'model schedules' have also been useful in representing schedules of rates other than mortality....This paper illustrates a particular general functional form for such model schedules: the multiexponential function. It discusses the changing behavior of this function as its parameters take on different values and examines the quality of the fits of this function to observed data on mortality, fertility, and migration." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Geographic Information Systems and Spatial Data Processing in Demography: a Review

This paper reviews the use of geographic information systems (GIS) software for spatial data processing in demography. The review begins with an introduction to GIS. Next, it traces the three major types of spatial data problems confronting demographers: the geocoding and geoprocessing of microdata, estimation of detailed population surfaces, and combining data aggregated to incompatible zone systems. GIS and non-GIS solutions to these problems are contrasted, with examples from published research. Spatially pre-processed datasets available to demographers are then discussed. The author concludes by noting that the solutions GIS provides to previously intractable data problems in spatial demography might encourage a focus on dynamic processes of population change in local areas.     

A method for combining sample survey data and symptomatic indicators to obtain population estimates for local areas

Past efforts of statistical demographers to compute postcensal population estimates for local units have been hampered by the fact that they have had to rely completely on symptomatic information. In this paper, a new method of postcensal estimation is presented in which the symptomatic information is combined with sample data by means of a regression format. Combining symptomatic information on births, deaths, and school enrollment with sample data from the Current Population Survey, county estimates of population growth were computed by means of the new method for the postcensal period after 1960. These estimates were tested for accuracy by comparison with a set of special censuses which were conducted between 1964 and 1967 in 75 counties. The results of this test are promising, but not conclusive. A more conclusive test is currently underway using 1970 data. While the method has been tested as a means for estimating population growth, it is to be emphasized that it can be used to compute postcensal estimates for any variable for which the necessary symptomatic information and sample data are available.