The economics of employment protection

Empirical investigation of the labor market consequences of employment protection has mushroomed since Lazear's (1990) pioneering study. Having sketched the theoretical background, we chart the course of the modern empirical literature. We focus mainly on dismissals protection, distinguishing between the themes of employment and unemployment development and labor market dynamics proper. Our discussion of employment and unemployment largely deals with the effect of employment protection on levels of these outcome indicators. We distinguish between overall and compositional effects (e.g., by demographic group and type of contract), between developing and industrialized nations, and identify some key control variables. Our discussion of labor market dynamics focuses on the speed of adjustment issue and on gross flows. It also formalizes the link between analyses of levels of and changes in variables. At all times potential offsets to the adverse effects of employment protection receive consideration.     

Female employment and fertility: a study based on Chilean data

Conflicting studies bring into question the hypothesis that increased employment opportunities for women in the modern sector would reduce the population growth rate. To help clarify the situation, data from about 4000 families in central Chile, obtained from interviews in 1965, are used to test 3 hypotheses: 1) that in the traditional sector of the economy, young children do not adversely affect the mother's labor force participation; 2) that in the modern sector, child care reduces labor force participation unless there are relatives or older children to look after the young children; and 3) that young children also have a positive influence on female employment in that they increase the need for added income. This would be particularly true in the traditional sector where average household income is lower. All hypotheses were proved true by the data. Furthermore, the positive effect on the mother's employment of a larger family size proved to be true in the modern sector as well as the traditional sector. The study indicates that if a country's objective is to lower the population growth rate, a population planning program relying on higher rates of fe male employment will have to be accompanied by other socioeconomic policies intended to achieve a higher level of economic development.     

Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data

This study examined the determinants of fertility, using panel data for 27 European countries. We employed panel co-integration to estimate fertility as function of demographic and economic variables. We showed that low fertility in most industrialized countries in Europe is due to low infant mortality rates, high female employment, low nuptiality rate, and high opportunity cost of having children. Using two measures of economic uncertainty, which are associated with labor market decisions—a production (an output) volatility measure and the unemployment rate—we examined to what extent economic insecurities affect fertility decisions. The empirical results showed that both measures of economic uncertainty have a significant negative impact on fertility implying that labor market insecurities might be a significant factor affecting fertility decisions.     

Determinants of female labor force participation: a focus on Muslim countries1

This article analyses the cross-national determinants of female labor force participation and different industry sectors with a focus on Muslim countries. The study explores neo-patriarchal perspectives and its measures show a significant impact on the different sectors as well as on the share of the total labor force. The Muslim percentage of the population (% Islamic) has its largest impact on the most modern sectors (industry and service). In contrast, % Islamic has no effect on female share of agriculture. Fertility shows no impact on female share of the labor force (FSHLF), but the separate sector models suggest that higher fertility significantly reduces female employment in the modern sectors. The study also examines the effect of economic development across different sectors. Unlike the FSHLF, which shows a curvilinear effect on energy consumption per capita, the sector models show linear effects on the development measure. Therefore the curvilinearity effect is the result of one linear negative impact on female share of agriculture and one linear positive impact on female share of service.     

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the provision of social insurance benefits continued to increase monotonically. Possible palliative measures would be to change present employment practices or to upgrade the quality of the labor force through vocational training programs for older workers.     

Urban development and employment in Abidjan

The city of Abidjan in the Ivory Coast has grown physically, economically, and demographically at rates exceeding all reasonable expectation. Yet, as in many other development nations, the employment generated by Abidjan's rapid economic expansion has failed to keep pace with the increase in working population it has attracted. Consequently, economic success has been accompanied by a variety of social strains. Some of these have been discussed in earlier issues of the "International Labour Review" by Louis Roussel. This discussion expands on Roussel's earlier treatment by focusing more specifically on several facets of the urban employment problem created by the rapid growth of Abidjan. Attention is directed to labor supply and employment, factors affecting migration, foreign Africans in the Ivory Coast labor force; the urban informal sector; urban infrastructure and development; social problems of population pressure; employment policy options (current government policies and other policy options); and general issues and policy alternatives (motivations for rural urban migration, smaller urban centers as alternative growth poles, and distributing the gains from development). Several essential features of the employment problem stem from the rural urban distribution of the workforce. The rural labor force, including temporary seasonal workers from the savannah countries to the north, remains more or less in balance with increasing rural employment opportunities, since the migration of Ivory Coast nationals to the cities is balanced by the inflow of foreign workers. In contrast, the influx of migrants into urban areas has led to a more rapid increase in the urban labor force than in urban employment, with a consequent rise in unemployment. In 1970 the Abidjan rate of open unemployment was probably around 20%. At this time, most people's idea of a desirable job is one in the formal sector of the urban economy. If there is to be any hope of an eventual balance between expectations and reality, it must be realized that an increasing share of the urban labor force will have to end up in the informal sector. Different attitudes towards work in the informal sector are needed on the part of both young people entering the labor force and of government policy makers. The latter should be seeking ways to increase productivity and incomes in the informal sector rather than for ways to destroy it. Current government policies include the training and educating of nationals to replace foreign technicians and managers, increasing the attractiveness of the rural milieu by the promotion of cooperatives, attempts to reform the land tenure system, the supply of electricity to villages, and the introduction of educational television; and adapting the educational system and technical training programs to the needs of the economy.     

Labor force participation and fertility: a study of married women in Bangladesh

Most researchers support the notion that a direct negative relationship exists between married women's labor force participation and fertility behavior, yet female employment shows no consistent, general relationship with declining fertility at individual and societal levels. Specific conditions under which employment lowers fertility are therefore explored for the case of Bangladesh. The economic, sociological, and world-system theoretical approaches to the relationship and empirical studies in developing countries including Bangladesh are reviewed. 1975-76 Bangladesh Fertility Survey data on births, deaths, nuptiality, and family planning knowledge and practice for 5772 currently married women of 6513 ever married women under 50 sampled are subjected to multivariate analysis for the study. Analysis revealed that women's modern and traditional occupation as well as higher and secondary education significantly lower their fertility, and that higher age, Islamic religion, use of modern contraceptives, and husband's occupation in transitional and modern sectors have significant positive effects on fertility. The correlation between higher fertility and contraceptive use may be due to women's delay in practicing family planning until reaching desired parity and/or high infant mortality driving women to cease practice in order to replace lost offspring. Future research should be conducted with larger samples and also consider occupations of both husbands and wives. Societal attitudes about women's education should be reformed in support of opening rural schools for women. With 90% of women residing in rural areas and women with traditional occupations having lower fertility, more traditional sector opportunities for women in cottage industry and agriculture production are also recommended, and would help balance skewed urban growth and hypertrophication of the tertiary sector. Finally, motivational efforts should be focused upon encouraging younger instead of older married couples to limit fertility.     

Female Labor Force Participation in Urban and Rural China1

Abstract The objective of this study is to examine female labor force participation and its determinants in rural and urban China. The sociological literature has demonstrated that participation tends to increase in urban and industrialized places where women have higher levels of education and fewer children, where more workers are engaged in service pursuits, and where family structure is less traditional. With the use of data on counties and cities (N = 2,377) from the I-percent sample of the 1982 census of the People's Republic of China, it was found that female labor force participation is likely to rise in areas with increased agricultural employment, educational levels, proportion of female-headed households, and higher male-to-female sex ratios. Both the size of the service sector and the fertility rate had negligible effects on female labor force participation. Although, on average, rural places have slightly higher levels of female labor force participation, when other variables are controlled, urban places have a higher rate of female participation. In addition, the findings suggest that market factors (i.e., education) are more likely to determine the rate of female labor force participation in urban areas; whereas demographic and social factors (i.e., sex ratio and household structure) play a more important role in explaining the female labor force participation in rural counties.     

The impact of childbirth on Spanish women’s decisions to leave the labor market

The present paper analyzes the effect of childbirth on Spanish women??s decisions to withdraw from paid work, defined here as the transition from employment to out of the labor force due to the requirements of household production. Decisions regarding fertility and labor market participation are interrelated and depend on individual and household characteristics, as well as external variables such as the availability of childcare services. We postulate that a female??s decision to leave the labor market is taken in a household context, and thus is the outcome which maximizes household welfare after taking into account the employment and earnings characteristics of all household members. We pay special attention to the effect of the male partner??s characteristics upon the female??s decision to withdraw from the labor market. Our empirical results show that in order to better define social and labor market policies on work and family reconciliation, increased attention should be paid to the job characteristics of males given their effect on the optimal assignment of tasks within the household following childbirth.     

Fertility expectation and employment across three female cohorts

The purpose of the study reported here is to assess the relationship between fertility expectation (total number of children expected to have or have had), childrearing career (ratio of actual or intended total time per child taken out of the labour force to rear children), and the following variables across female age cohorts: (a) age, (b) education, (c) personal income, (d) religious strength, (e) marital status, and (f) employment status. The random sample consists of 323 women. Results of simultaneous equation modelling indicates that fertility expectation and childrearing career are influenced by different factors in the age cohorts. Results are discussed in terms of role compatibility and new home economics theories.Data were part of the Winnipeg Area Study, managed by Raymond Curry in the Department of Sociology, University of Manitoba.Dr. Kingsbury received her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina-Greensboro. Her research interests are fertility decision-making and women's employment.     

The employment and wages of legalized immigrants

"This article analyzes the employment and wages of recently legalized immigrants [in the United States] using the Legalization Application Processing System (LAPS) file, an administrative file based on the individual records of amnesty applicants, and draws comparisons with a sample of the foreign-born population from the Current Population Surveys of 1983, 1986 and 1988. Compared to the total foreign-born population, the legalized immigrant population differs in four important respects that bear on labor market position: 1) a younger age structure; 2) a less balanced gender composition; 3) a greater representation of Latin Americans; and 4) few years of U.S. residence. LAPS data reveal high rates of labor force participation among legalized immigrants, which exceeded the rates of the foreign-born population by approximately 5 and 17 percent for men and women, respectively."     

Demographic Changes and Economic Activityin Greece

This paper investigates the linkages among demographic changes (fertility choice, marriage decision and mortality), real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–1998. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. In addition, the results suggest that an increase in real wages decreases nuptiality and fertility. Employing vector error-correction models and impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process.     

Individual and Familial Determinants of Married Arab Israeli Women's Labor Force Participation: Trends of Change and Stability

Although the Arab population in Israel has undergone important economic and social changes in the past decades, the labor force participation of Arab women, particularly married women, has remained limited. This study uses census data to learn about the individual and familial factors associated with the entry into paid work of married Arab women and examines the extent to which these factors have changed over time. A major advantage is that the study distinguishes between the Muslim, Christian, and Druze populations, who markedly differ in their demographic, social, and cultural characteristics. Results from logistic regression models and standardization analyses reveal that the growth in employment experienced by Arab women was associated with the increasing education of both wives and husbands. However, the returns to education significantly decreased over time, particularly among Druze women, suggesting it has become more difficult for highly educated women to find employment. Results further show that the growth in employment experienced by Muslim and Christian women was related both to a decline in fertility and to a decrease in the negative returns to having children. Overall, findings underscore the structural barriers that limit Arab Israeli women's employment opportunities and raise concerns about their future occupational prospects.     

Housing tenure,structure, and crowding among Latino households

This article examines the effect of federal housing and public assistance programs on the housing quality of different Latino households. The research tests models of crowding and housing tenure and structure for Latino households. The data for this research are from the 1990 Latino National Political Survey-Panel Study of Income Dynamics (LNPS-PSID). Findings reveal that housing and public assistance programs do help alleviate crowding among the Latino population, but they do not help Latino households achieve ownership of a single-family home. All the demographic variables in the model contribute to the explanation of crowding, and a majority also significantly explain housing tenure and structure. Significant differences are found among Latino subgroups in the explanatory variables for crowding, tenure, and structure. She is also the director of the Center for the Study of Aging at Illinois State. Her research interests include housing of minority households and congregate housing for the elderly. She received her Ph.D. from Iowa State University. Her research interests include housing needs of Latino households, resource management of female-headed Puerto Rican households, fertility decisions of Puerto Rican women, and student labor force participation. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.     

Determinants of employment of recently arrived Mexican immigrant wives

The work force participation of married, Mexican-origin immigrant women who came to the US in the 1980s was investigated. Determinants of employment utilized in this study are the women's human capital stock, household resources, and labor market structural factors. Nine hypotheses were derived from the analytical model and were examined through logistic regression. Findings showed that all human capital resource and structural labor market factors were significantly related to employment. On the other hand, four of the five family household factors namely: the age and presence of children in the household, husband's income, husband's employment, and non-labor income were significantly related to employment. Furthermore, the positive factors indicating the likelihood of being employed in 1989 for Mexican immigrant wives are: 1) being 25-54 years of age; 2) higher educational levels; 3) speaking fluent English; 4) lower levels of husband's income and non-labor income; 5) employment of husband in 1989; 6) absence of children under age 6 at home; 7) lower non-Hispanic female unemployment rates; 8) higher work force proportion employed in immigrant female-dependent occupations; 9) lower proportions of the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) population being of Mexican origin; and 10) smaller MSA populations.     

How female education reduces fertility: models and needed research

Although the correlation between female education and fertility has been documented, the operators that link greater female education to lower fertility at either the individual or aggregate levels have not been specified or submitted to systematic empirical tests. Discovering which aspects of female education account for reduced fertility requires a refined conceptualization of the education-fertility relationship as well as identification of all the causal variables and operators that mediate the effects of female education. A series of propositions from the research literature regarding indirect effects of female education on fertility through effects on age at marriage or first conception, labor force participation, social mobility, economic utility of children, exposure to mass media, knowledge and use of contraception, husband-wife communication, and infant mortality are set forth along with their rationale and empirical support. These propositions are supplemented by 1 on the direct effects and 3 on the interaction effects of female education on fertility. A block-recursive model is presented by means of which the 12 propositions can be brought together and assessed. A methodology for applying appropriate statistical procedures to World Fertility Survey or other high quality data arranged in the form of multivariate models in order to decompose the direct, indirect and joint effects of female education is then proposed and discussed.     

Satisfaction with home-based employment

Using data from nine state regional research project on at-home income generation, the relationships of three satisfaction variables to demographic and work situation variables of 899 household managers in households with home-based employment are investigated. The satisfaction variables include quality of life, family income, and control over everyday life. The majority of households are satisfied with their quality of life and control over life although only moderately satisfied with income. One variable is related to the three satisfaction variables, the wage earner's control over the amount of work done in a day.This paper reports results from the Cooperative Regional Research Project, NE-167, entitled, At-Home Income Generation: Impact on Management, Productivity and Stability in Rural and Urban Families, partially supported by Cooperative States Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Experiment Stations at the University of Hawaii, Iowa State University, Lincoln University (Missouri), Michigan State University, Cornell University (New York), The Ohio State University, The Pennsylvania State University, Utah State University, and the University of Vermont. This article was accepted in 1992 under the editorship of Charles B. Hennon.Her research interests include evaluation of teaching/learning, program evaluation, and entrepreneurship. She received her Ph.D. from Cornell University.     

Evaluating a basic-needs strategy and population policies: the BACHUE approach

The BACHUE model, a dynamic simulation technique developed within the International Labour Organization's World Employment Program, has been applied to the Philippines. The model simulates behavior and consequences in a number of key areas: fertility, marriage, migration, savings and expenditure, and labor force participation for households and a macro-model for demand, ouput, employment, and income. The design and development of the model are discussed in detail. The model was run for a series of 13 experiments ranging from nationlization of modern sectors, increasing self-employment, movement toward labor-intensive techniques, changes in growth rates of various sectors, and a reduction in fertility by 2% over 1976-1985, an increase over the 1% assumed in the base run. Runs R-2 to R-11 all showed that a change in basic needs is associated with significant declines in fertility, largely because of increasing education and decreasing mortality. Better economic conditions in rural areas also reduced migration. R-13 which examined the effects of a family planning program of moderate size on ultimate fertility, showed that even by year 2000 the effects were small. The population is reduced 5% over the run which assumes negative income tax and government subsidies to poor families but the gain in income per adult is less than 4%. Any real improvement in income as the result of family planning will take 40-50 years to achieve. Economic incentives, on the other hand, have much faster demographic results. The models also show that rural-urban migration is responsive to policy changes. Planners are cautioned that the model is not a picture of the entire range of human behavior but is an adjunct for use in analyzing interaction between policies.     

Rural Agricultural Change and Fertility Transition in Nepal

Using longitudinal panel data from the Western Chitwan Valley of Nepal, this study examines the impact of the use of modern farm technologies on fertility transition—specifically, the number of births in a farm household. Previous explanations for the slow pace of fertility transition in rural agricultural settings often argued that the demand for farm labor is the primary driver of high fertility. If this argument holds true, the use of modern farm technologies that are designed to carry out labor‐intensive farm activities ought to substitute for farm labor and discourage births in farm families. However, little empirical evidence is available on the potential influence of the use of modern farm technologies on the fertility transition. To fill this gap, the panel data examined in this study provide an unusual opportunity to test this long‐standing, but unexplored, argument. The results demonstrate that the use of modern farm technologies, particularly the use of a tractor and other modern farm implements, reduce subsequent births in farm households. This offers important insight for understanding the fertility transition in Nepal, a setting that is experiencing high population growth and rapidly changing farming practices.     

How Do Migrants Fare in a Post‐Apartheid South African Labor Market?1

South African policies have historically emphasized employment as the reason for immigration. In post‐apartheid South Africa, stories about how “immigrants take away our jobs” abound in the mass media, yet few empirical studies have been undertaken to examine the validity of this claim. This study looks at the relationship between migration status, nativity and labor force outcomes in the post‐apartheid labor market. Our results suggest that migrants are more likely to participate in the labor force and to be gainfully employed than the indigenous population. Foreign migrants enjoy the highest labor force participation rates and employment rates in South Africa. South African‐born internal migrants also have significantly higher labor force outcomes than do nonmigrants.