Geographic distance,the measurement of socioeconomic development,and the extent of migration

A study of migration in the region of Wojewodztwo Wloclawskie, Poland, is presented for the period 1975-1979 using a gravitational model. The model includes migration variables and variables measuring the level of socioeconomic development.     

The effect of migration on population development

Long-term migration patterns in the USSR are analyzed by Union Republic using data from the 1979 census. The impact on the population of rural and urban areas is considered.     

Average life expectancy for infants and socioeconomic development

The author examines the relationship between life expectancy and the level of economic development in 23 selected countries around the world. Empirical results concerning 12 economic indicators are fitted using a log function     

An attempt at the econometric specification of the socioeconomic determinants of migratory movements and migration balance

An analysis of internal migration in Poland is presented. Models of out-migration, in-migration, and migration balance are constructed for each of the 49 voivodships for 1979. Factors affecting migration are analyzed, including per capita investment, employment, output, fixed capital, per capita retail sales, housing, social services, manufacturing payroll, school enrollment, per capita hospital beds, movie theater seats, and book publications.     

The socioeconomic structure of the population

The author discusses plans for the next all-Union population census in the USSR, with a focus on gathering data on socioeconomic characteristics.     

Anticipated demographic development in Poland in the light of the new demographic projections

The authors present the results of revised population projections for Poland for 1985 based on the final results of the 1978 population census. Assumptions made in previous projections are critically reviewed, as are the population estimates on which those projections were based     

The accuracy of population projections

A review of past population projection errors is presented as a means for constructing confidence intervals for future projections. The author first defines a statistic to measure projection errors independent of the size of population and the length of the projection period. A sample of U.S. and U.N. projections is used to show that the distributions of components of the error statistic are relatively stable. This information is then used to construct confidence intervals for the U.S. population up to the year 2000.     

Orthogonal projections and the geometry of estimating functions

In this paper, a notion of generalized inner product spaces is introduced to study optimal estimating functions. The basic technique involves an idea of orthogonal projection first introduced by Small and McLeish (1988, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994). A characterization of orthogonal projections in generalized inner product spaces is given. It is shown that the orthogonal projection of the score function into a linear subspace of estimating functions is optimal in that subspace, and a characterization of optimal estimating functions is given. As special cases of the main results of this paper, we derive the results of Godambe (1985) on the foundation of estimation in stochastic processes, the result of Godambe and Thompson (1989) on the extension of quasi-likelihood, and the generalized estimating equations for multivariate data due to Liang and Zeger (1986). Also we have derived optimal estimating functions in the Bayesian framework.     

Detecting dependence between marks and locations of marked point processes

Summary.  We introduce two characteristics for stationary and isotropic marked point proces- ses, E ( h ) and V ( h ), and describe their use in investigating mark–point interactions. These quantities are functions of the interpoint distance h and denote the conditional expectation and the conditional variance of a mark respectively, given that there is a further point of the process a distance h away. We present tests based on E and V for the hypothesis that the values of the marks can be modelled by a random field which is independent of the unmarked point process. We apply the methods to two data sets in forestry.     

The measurement of the intensity of internal migration

The method developed by Daniel Courgeau for calculating rates of internal migration is described and applied to data for Poland. Individual probabilities of internal migration are calculated for various years, population groups, and administrative areas in order to show that these probabilities are not constant.     

A general definition of influence between stochastic processes

We extend the study of weak local conditional independence (WCLI) based on a measurability condition made by (Commenges and Gégout-Petit J R Stat Soc B 71:1–18) to a larger class of processes that we call D￠{\bf {\mathcal{D}'}}. We also give a definition related to the same concept based on certain likelihood processes, using the Girsanov theorem. Under certain conditions, the two definitions coincide on D￠{\bf {\mathcal{D}'}}. These results may be used in causal models in that we define what may be the largest class of processes in which influences of one component of a stochastic process on another can be described without ambiguity. From WCLI we can construct a concept of strong local conditional independence (SCLI). When WCLI does not hold, there is a direct influence while when SCLI does not hold there is direct or indirect influence. We investigate whether WCLI and SCLI can be defined via conventional independence conditions and find that this is the case for the latter but not for the former. Finally we recall that causal interpretation does not follow from mere mathematical definitions, but requires working with a good system and with the true probability.     

Spatial differentiation of the socioeconomic composition of the population

Differences in population characteristics among the administrative districts of Poland are analyzed. The characteristics examined include density, place of employment, urban population growth, population employed in agriculture, and migration.     

Time series,point processes,and hybrids

Techniques developed for the study of time series, point processes, and marked point processes can suggest corresponding techniques for each other, and common techniques can be recognized. In this paper connections are drawn based on conceptual foundations, basic parameters, analyses, displays, algorithms, problems, models. The definitions and techniques are brought out by specific scientific problems. The emphasis is on the single-realization stationary case and on the use of second- and third-order moments to help understand the realization. The tool of stacking, at a particular period, is employed in several of the examples.     

The moving-range chart and autocorrelated processes

This paper investigates the behavior of the moving-range statistic and the performance of the standard moving-range chart in the presence of autocorrelation. The distributional properties and time-series properties of the moving-range statistic are presented. The average run length (ARL) properties of the standard moving-range chart in the presence of autocorrelation and a new proposed chart are presented.     

The relationship between the mean,median, and mode with grouped data

It is widely believed that the median is “usually” between the mean and the mode for skewed unimodal distributions. However, this inequality is not always true, especially with grouped data. Unavailability of complete raw data further necessitates the importance of evaluating this characteristic in grouped data. There is a gap in the current statistical literature on assessing mean–median–mode inequality for grouped data. The study aims to evaluate the relationship between the mean, median, and mode with unimodal grouped data; derive conditions for their inequalities; and present their application.