The sample census of population in Poland, 1949

In this note the author describes the sample census of Poland that was taken after the end of the war. He explains the method by which the sample was selected and the type of information that can be obtained from it.     

An Orsett census enumerator

Given the wide use of Victorian census enumerators' books (CEBs), it is surprising that so little is known about the background and ability of the enumerators who compiled them. For the most part they are anonymous persons with difficult handwriting and strange spelling. One such enumerator was the current author's grandfather, William Woollings of Orsett, Essex, who compiled the censuses of 1851, 1861 and 1871 for one of the enumeration districts in the parish in which he lived. This article examines his qualifications for the task of census enumerator and attempts to find if his knowledge of and social standing in the local community affected the way in which he completed the census returns. Secondly, by comparing the three censuses that he compiled an overall assessment is made of the accuracy of his returns in the light of the difficulties that he experienced, and the improvements that were made over time.     

The strange history and problematic future of the Australian census

When looking back into the first century of Australian history following white settlement we often rely on the records of musters, listings and censuses to provide information on individuals and communities. The first census of New South Wales in 1828 was little more than a directory of names of settlers and settlements, but both professional historians and genealogists regard it as invaluable. As the scientific principles of censuses were developed over the course of the nineteenth century the information collected became ever more important for social scientists and economists. In the twentieth century, professional historians in the UK and USA opened wholly new perspectives on society by looking to the census for records of common families who were not recorded in the newspapers or diaries of the time, and the community structures in which they lived. Unfortunately such innovations have not been possible in Australia. The individual records of most colonial and all Commonwealth censuses are not to be found in the libraries or archives. The destruction of original census records in Australia has been the result of misadventure and government policies reflecting great fear about the impact of popular privacy concerns on public compliance with the census operations. This paper explores the history behind the anomalous practice of destroying census records in Australia, and poses questions about the role of the census in the writing of histories of Australian people and Australian communities.     

The population census of Northern Nigeria 1952: Problems and results

A brief survey of censuses previously taken in Northern Nigeria makes clear by comparison the importance of the 1952 Census in the acquisition of demographic data. Some of the problems of organising and conducting the census are considered.

The analysis of the census results pays special attention to the pattern of population density but consideration is also given to age and sex structure, occupations, tribal data, literacy and religions. Shortcomings and omissions in the census, particularly the absence of any information on migration, are noted.

The conclusion stresses the importance of the 1952 Census as a basis for future demographic studies ; the evidence for an increasing population but the absence of vital statistics to explain this ; the need for much further detailed analysis to be undertaken of the data in the 1952 Census.     

The application of electronic computers in processing population census data]

This is an explanatory essay concerning the use of computers in processing census data. The article focuses on the steps involved in transforming raw data into machine-readable form. The geographical focus of the study is on China.     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.     

The reduction of errors in census populations for statistically underdeveloped countries

The population data of statistically under-developed countries are usually subject to many substantial errors. Techniques are required to detect and, by adjustment, to reduce these errors. In the past, much of this work has been of an ad hoc nature. This present study attempts to contribute to the building up of a general methodology for dealing with these problems.

Each technique for detecting error is paralleled by techniques for reducing the error, and a secondary objective was to integrate closely each detecting technique with its associated adjustments. The criteria used are based on the need for internal consistency, and the fields studied are the ogive, the proportion of each generation surviving from one census to the next, sex ratio, digital preference and age overstatement at the older ages.     

Quality of response in census taking

A brief preliminary review of sources of error in the 1951 Census of England and Wales is made against the background of earlier experience. Examples are given of methods of assessing the nature and extent of errors of misstatement or misunderstanding which form an inherent risk of census taking. An extension of pre-census testing of question appreciation is foreshadowed but the truism that accuracy depends upon acceptance of the social purposes of the census, is emphasised as the essential condition for securing the best possible response.     

Understanding the 1996 census migration data

The Australian Census provides two approaches to measuring migration: indicators which distinguish movers from non-movers, and a geographic classification which identifies each person’s usual residence on census night, and their usual address one year and five years previously. Although these data represent a rich source of information, they contain several traps for the unwary. We show that differences in the variables and classifications used can result in marked variations in the apparent intensity and patterns of migration. The questionnaire and processing methodology used in the 1996 Census also resulted in a number of inconsistencies between the migration indicators and the usual address information. We examine the magnitude and source of these anomalies, assess their implications and propose a partial solution. The views expressed in this paper are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

Estimating census and death registration completeness

This article presents a new method for estimating the relative completeness of 2 census enumerations and of intercensal registered deaths. The Growth Balance Equation was developed by Brass (1975) to estimate the completeness of death registration relative to the completeness of census enumeration. The method presented here can be seen either as an extension of Martin's formulation to allow explicitly for changes in census coverage or as a modification of Brass's method to use deaths by age group rather than deaths by cohort, preferable on the grounds that age group comparisons will be less distorted by age misreporting than cohort comparisons if the patterns of age misreporting are similar for 2 successive censuses. This simple method estimates simultaneously the relative coverage of the 2 censuses and the completeness of registration of intercensal deaths. The key assumptions of the method are that the population is closed to migration and that all the coverage factors involved are invariant with age, at least for the age range studied. Analysis of the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and further work on extending the method to open populations would be useful.     

A probability model for census adjustment

The census can be adjusted using capture‐recapture techniques: capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.     

Birth delays skew developing world's fertility figures

This article explains that birth delays skew developing world's fertility figures. When successive groups of women who have delayed childbearing start having children, the rapid fertility decline stalls. Such change in the timing of childbearing skews the total fertility rate (TFR). Analysis of the tempo component of TFR trends in Taiwan suggests that tempo effects reduced its TFR by about 10% in the late 1970s and early 1990s and by about 19% in the late 1980s. In Colombia, on the basis of increasing mean maternal age at childbirth between the 1970s and the late 1980s, tempo distortions of the TFR during the most of the 1980s seem likely. Moreover, many developing countries are now experiencing rapid fertility declines that are in part attributable to tempo changes. These changes have accelerated past fertility transitions, but they also make these countries vulnerable to future stalls in fertility when the delays in childbearing end. Since fertility reductions caused by tempo effects lead to real declines in birth rates and hence in population growth, countries that wish to reduce birth rates can take actions that encourage women to delay marriage and the onset of childbearing.