Voluntary versus involuntary sample surveys in the microcensus

The author compares aspects of voluntary and involuntary sample surveys in West Germany. "The German microcensus as a non-voluntary survey draws a random sample from the total population which includes persons that would also respond in a voluntary survey (respondents) and persons that would not respond (non-respondents). The population of a voluntary survey, however, includes only respondents. Hence, statistical inference from a voluntary sample survey is only valid for the total population, if the population of respondents does not differ from the total population. This null hypothesis must be rejected from the comparisons of data from the German microcensus of 1985, 1986 and 1987 and corresponding voluntary test sample surveys. The discrepancies are great in central demographic and socio-economic variables such as region of residence, community size, age, marital status, income and social security." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Births in remarriages (using data from sample surveys)

Data from sample surveys conducted between 1978 and 1981 are used to examine the fertility of women in second and subsequent marriages in the USSR. The results indicate that women up to age 25 who have been married more than once have higher fertility than women in a first marriage. However, total fertility is higher for women in uninterrupted marriages. The analysis is presented separately for various cohorts and for socioeconomic characteristics such as educational status and rural or urban residence.     

我国住户调查一体化设计研究

住户调查一体化设计包括对各项住户调查的通盘考虑和与普查、行政记录的有机衔接。首先,在借鉴国际经验和考虑我国实际的基础上,提出我国住户调查一体化设计的两个基本要求;其次,构造出我国住户调查一体化设计的基础框架;最后,充分利用现行国家调查制度的渠道和机制,对住户调查项目按其调查内容特征和内在逻辑关系进行精简、整合,形成以劳动力调查和住户收支与生活状况调查为核心的住户调查体系,并给出以主样本为主体的我国住户调查的一体化设计思路。     

Regression Coefficient Estimation in Dual Frame Surveys

Dual frame surveys, in which independent samples are selected from two frames to decrease survey costs or to improve coverage, can present challenges for regression coefficient estimation because of complex designs and unknown degree of overlap. In this research, we developed four regression coefficient estimators in dual frame surveys. Simulation results show that all the proposed methods work well.     

Life expectancy of the population in Silesia

The author analyzes changes in average life expectancy in Silesian voivodships in Poland from 1976 to 1995. Differences according to sex, age, and place of residence are considered. (ANNOTATION)     

New statistical needs concerning the estimation of the demographic changes taking place in Poland

The authors examine the increased need for survey data in Poland to keep track of the rapid economic, social, and demographic changes that are occurring in the country. They discuss the type of surveys that are needed and such topics as data compatibility, sampling, frequency, and organization of data collection through surveys. (ANNOTATION)     

基于多重抽样框的校准估计方法研究

在现代抽样调查中,校准估计方法能够通过有效利用辅助信息来提高估计量的精度,多重抽样框抽样调查则不仅可以解决单一抽样框覆盖不全的问题,还可以节约抽样设计阶段的成本。本文将这两种现代抽样估计与设计方法进行结合,将校准估计方法引入到基于多重抽样框的抽样调查体系中,在实现节约调查成本的同时,还能够提高估计量的精度。文章首先按照分离抽样框与组合抽样框估计方法的分类思路,对传统多重抽样框估计方法进行系统梳理;然后在最短距离法校准估计的分析框架下,按照调查时所能掌握辅助信息的具体情况,给出了两类多重抽样框估计情形下的各种不同形式的校准估计量;随后数值分析的比较结果也表明在多重抽样框中校准估计量的估计效率明显优于传统估计量;最后对本文研究进行总结的基础上,给出了我国抽样实践中应用这套先进抽样估计方法体系的展望。     

On the planning and design of sample surveys

Surveys rely on structured questions used to map out reality, using sample observations from a population frame, into data that can be statistically analyzed. This paper focuses on the planning and design of surveys, making a distinction between individual surveys, household surveys and establishment surveys. Knowledge from cognitive science is used to provide guidelines on questionnaire design. Non-standard, but simple, statistical methods are described for analyzing survey results. The paper is based on experience gained by conducting over 150 customer satisfaction surveys in Europe, America and the Far East.     

Statistical data integration using multilevel models to predict employee compensation

This article considers the case where two surveys collect data on a common variable, with one survey being much smaller than the other. The smaller survey collects data on an additional variable of interest, related to the common variable collected in the two surveys, and out-of-scope with respect to the larger survey. Estimation of the two related variables is of interest at domains defined at a granular level. We propose a multilevel model for integrating data from the two surveys, by reconciling survey estimates available for the common variable, accounting for the relationship between the two variables, and expanding estimation for the other variable, for all the domains of interest. The model is specified as a hierarchical Bayes model for domain-level survey data, and posterior distributions are constructed for the two variables of interest. A synthetic estimation approach is considered as an alternative to the hierarchical modelling approach. The methodology is applied to wage and benefits estimation using data from the National Compensation Survey and the Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, United States.     

International surveys of educational achievement: how robust are the findings?

Summary.  International surveys of educational achievement and functional literacy are increasingly common. We consider two aspects of the robustness of their results. First, we compare results from four surveys: the Trends in International Maths and Science Study, the Programme for International Student Assessment, the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study and the International Adult Literacy Survey. This contrasts with the standard approach which is to analyse just one survey in isolation. Second, we investigate whether results are sensitive to the choice of item response model that is used by survey organizers to aggregate respondents' answers into a single score. In both cases we focus on countries' average scores, the within-country differences in scores and on the association between the two.     

The sensitivity of estimates of the change in population behaviour to realistic changes in bias in repeated surveys

Summary.  The first British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL) was conducted in 1990–1991 and the second in 1999–2001. When surveys are repeated, the changes in population parameters are of interest and are generally estimated from a comparison of the data between surveys. However, since all surveys may be subject to bias, such comparisons may partly reflect a change in bias. Typically limited external data are available to estimate the change in bias directly. However, one approach, which is often possible, is to define in each survey a sample of participants who are eligible for both surveys, and then to compare the reporting of selected events that occurred before the earlier survey time point. A difference in reporting suggests a change in overall survey bias between time points, although other explanations are possible. In NATSAL, changes in bias are likely to be similar for groups of sexual experiences. The grouping of experiences allows the information that is derived from the selected events to be incorporated into inference concerning population changes in other sexual experiences. We use generalized estimating equations, which incorporate weighting for differential probabilities of sampling and non-response in a relatively straightforward manner. The results, combined with estimates of the change in reporting, are used to derive minimum established population changes, based on NATSAL data. For some key population parameters, the change in reporting is seen to be consistent with a change in bias alone. Recommendations are made for the design of future surveys.     

Demographic and social changes in the Katowice voivodship

"Since [the] late nineteen-eighties, two important trends in demographic and social urbanisation have been visible. The first is diminution of [the] influence of demographic influences which originate outside the voivodship, the second is a stabilisation (regress in some cases) of some urban centres. The latter is due to a nation-wide demographic transformation as well as to a growth in emigration from traditional urban centres of Katowice conurbation....[The] latest [official] surveys indicate that the named trends are characteristic for a majority of Polish cities over 100,000 since 1990." (EXCERPT)     

The effect of area of residence over the life course on subsequent mortality

Summary.  Life course epidemiology concentrates on the contribution that social or physical exposures have across the life course on adult health. It is known that the area of residence can affect health, but little is known about the effect of the area of residence across the life course. We examine the contribution that area of residence in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990 made on subsequent mortality for 49736 male inhabitants of Oslo in 1990. We compare the performance of multiple-membership and cross-classified multilevel models on these data with a correlated cross-classified model that was developed for this.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

On the coefficient of variation for residence time distributions of some stochastic compartmental models

The study of residence time distributions is motivated by the desire to develop new practical tools for the statistical analysis of compartmental systems. In particular, Gibaldi and Perrier (1982) describe three alternative models for a two-compartment system, which were noted to be "indistinguishable based solely on plasma or urinary excretion data," defining a residence time distribution. In this paper, properties of the coefficient of variation of the residence time distributions are developed for these three models. In addition to the standard Markovian model with exponential retention times, properties are also derived for a non-Markovian model with gamma retention times. A coefficient of variation may be estimated from commonly available elimination data, and may be used in principle to discriminate between these three models.     

Mortality in the years 1950-1990

"The author of the paper has attempted to show...trends in...mortality by sex, age, place of residence and [the] selected most important death causes in Poland. The crude and the specific as well as standardized death rates and life expectancy have been analyzed for the period...1950-1990." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

城镇化进程中-农村向城镇转移人口数量分析

农村人口向城镇转移 ,农村富裕劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移 ,是工业化和现代化的必然趋势 ,也是人口城镇化的必然趋势。改革开放以来 ,在城镇化进程中 ,我国从农村向城镇转移人口的数量一直为政府和社会各界所关注。本文基于人口普查数据 ,估计了 2 0世纪末 ,1990～2 0 0 0年我国从农村向城镇转移人口的数量 ;户口“农转非”人口数量 ,并对 2 1世纪头 2 0年 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 2 0年我国城镇人口的发展趋势 ,农村向城镇转移人口的数量 ,城乡劳动力资源分布进行了预测。　　一、农村向城镇转移人口的定义当前我国从农村向城镇转移人口的情况复杂 …     

Estimating excess deaths in Iraq since the US—British-led invasion

No-one knows how many Iraqis have died as a result of the invasion of their country. Surveys published in The Lancet in 2004 and 2006 estimated the number at 10 times figures previously given. Predictably, they raised a storm of protest. Politicians attacked the surveys; public media gave their own spin. Here Scott Zeger and Elizabeth Johnson , statistical analysts of the surveys, discuss these and other attempts to count the dead, and how statistical messages should be best communicated.