Cuba: the demography of revolution

Cuba's post-revolution demographic trends, especially in regard to fertility and emigration, and the causes and consequences of these trends, were examined using available statistical data. The authors maintain that both fertility and emigration trends were highly infuenced by economic factors. The trends are described in the context of the social and economic changes instituted by the revolutionary government. Government policies were aimed at 1) eradicating inequalities in housing, income, education, and health; 2) improving the status of women; and 3) upgrading the living standards of the rural population. Government policies did alleviate many social problems and greatly improved the health and educational status of the population; however, these policies had a marked adverse effect on economic performance. The demographic transition began in Cuba earlier than in most other developing countries and it began long before the 1959 revolution. These earlier changes must be taken into account when assessing the impact of post-revolution policies on demographic trends. Cuba's birthrate declined from 26-14.8/1000 population between 1959-1979 and the total fertility rate declined from 3.7-1.9 between 1970-1978; however, during the 1960s there was a baby boom and the birth rate for 1963 exceeded 35/1000 population. The baby boom was largely a response to the temporary improvement in economic conditions which occurred shortly after the revolution. The decline in fertility during the 1970s was due in part to the increased availability of abortion and contraceptive services and to a decline in the marriage rate; however, Cuba's deteriorating economy was also a major contributing factor. The baby boom of the 1960s is negativley affecting the current economy of the country. Individuals born during the baby boom are entering adulthood and are contributing toward Cuba's current unemployment problems. Prior to the revolution, Cuba experienced a high rate of in-migration. Immediately after the revolution this pattern was reversed and between 1959-1980 more than 800,000 Cubans emigrated. Most of these emigrants went to the U.S. A large proportion of the earlier emigrants were members of the upper and middle socioeconomic classes. Recent emigrants were more evenly representative of all segments of Cuba's population. The socioeconomic characteristics of the emigrants are described and their adjustment in the U.S. is discussed. Tables provide statistical data on Cuba's demographic trends.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

The state of applied demography in Australia

What is the state of applied demography in Australia from a practitioner’s perspective? The paper discusses this question by addressing the following aspects: what issues are and are not receiving media coverage; the use and misuse of demographic data; the level of service received by the demography community from the main suppliers of data; the emerging role of some key players on the scene and some suggestions on the teaching of demography in Australia.     

The verification of data in historical demography

Abstract In all scientific studies care must be taken to work on data which are correct and hence to make sure of the quality of the observations. In the field of historical demography there is need for extra care. The data were collected a long time ago in circumstances which were sometimes good, sometimes bad, but often little known. Statisticians are, moreover, on a priori grounds, rather inclined to be more suspicious of observations made in the past than of those which are made currently. Results relating to past populations must therefore be more rigorously established than any others if they are to be accepted. The verification of the data thus forms an integral part of the work of the historical demographer.     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.     

The demography of Tristan da Cunha

The eruption of the volcano on Tristan da Cunha in 1961 and the subsequent arrival of the island population in the United Kingdom provided a unique opportunity for studying the health of this formerly isolated community. During their stay, while the facilities and services of modern medicine were made available to them, investigations of many facets of their general biology were made under the auspices of the Medical Research Council, co-ordinated by Dr. H. E. Lewis. Analysis of their demographic history was essential to understand many features of their disease pattern, and the results of this analysis are presented here. They are of interest in that they not only show some consistent trends in the common variables of demography, but also demonstrate biological principles, some perhaps for the first time in man, which may be fundamental in the process of colonization as a biological phenomenon, e.g. the initial difficulty of establishment of a population in a new area, the curious demographic structure that may emerge in its earliest years, the bottleneck effect of population-size reduction, the founder principle.     

The demography of Tristan da Cunha

Abstract The eruption of the volcano on Tristan da Cunha in 1961 and the subsequent arrival of the island population in the United Kingdom provided a unique opportunity for studying the health of this formerly isolated community. During their stay, while the facilities and services of modern medicine were made available to them, investigations of many facets of their general biology were made under the auspices of the Medical Research Council, co-ordinated by Dr. H. E. Lewis. Analysis of their demographic history was essential to understand many features of their disease pattern, and the results of this analysis are presented here. They are of interest in that they not only show some consistent trends in the common variables of demography, but also demonstrate biological principles, some perhaps for the first time in man, which may be fundamental in the process of colonization as a biological phenomenon, e.g. the initial difficulty of establishment of a population in a new area, the curious demographic structure that may emerge in its earliest years, the bottleneck effect of population-size reduction, the founder principle.     

The impact of Medicare on demography

The so-called Medicare program enacted by the 1965 Amendments to the Social Security Act will have a significant impact on demographic studies, in view of the vast amount of previously unobtainable data that will be made available. Not only will there be extensive information in regard to hospitalization and other medical-care costs for persons aged 65 and over (with adequate subdivisions by age and sex) but also reliable data in regard to the true size of the population aged 65 and over will be produced.The reason for this latter result is that virtually all pereons aged 65 and over in the country will become eligible for hospital insurance, even though they may not have been previously covered, or have been survivors of persons covered, under the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance System. As a result, not only will there be an accurate count (unlike the census, where the enumeration necessarily is not complete), but also there will be a verification of age, since this is necessary under the claims process.     

The contemporary demography of indigenous Australians

Increased public policy focus on indigenous Australians over the past 30 years has resulted in a substantial expansion of demographic analysis over the same period. This paper reviews these efforts and summarizes the main topics, findings and debates. The accumulated evidence points to both demographic change and continuity. Change: in that mortality has declined; fertility levels have been much reduced; urbanization has burgeoned and population growth has entered a phase of rapid increase. Continuity: because mortality is still much higher than the Australian average; fertility remains at a level well above that reported for all women; most individuals still live away from major cities; and the estimation of overall numbers still hinges on a social construction of identity.     

Historical demography in Venezuela

The authors provide information on selected sources of demographic data for Venezuela for two historical periods: the pre-statistical years from the beginning of Spanish colonization to the early 1870s and the period from 1870 to the present. A brief bibliography is included     

Finite approximations in demography

Abstract Conventions exist for carrying out the arithmetic of population projection, finding the intrinsic rate of natural increase, and other demographic calculations. These are good approximations only for populations which are stationary or increasing very slowly. For rapidly increasing populations, which are presently the subject of much study, they can be readily improved. The improved formulae take account of the way in which the increase shifts the distribution of population within the five-year age group. A number of examples are given of the derivation of corrections to existing formulae. While the corrections are smaller than the error of the data available for most countries, such formulae are worth introducing in anticipation of better data. They in no way depend on machine computation, but the computer makes them especially easy to apply.     

The demography of the Kuwaiti population of Kuwait

Kuwait has experienced a dramatic rise in national income since 1945, and its material standard of living is as high as that of any country in the world. The national population (Kuwaitis) is a stable and almost closed population comprising 45 percent of the total population of the state. The Kuwaitis, readily separable from the immigrant population, both de facto and de jure, have a very low level of mortality but retain their traditionally high level of fertility. It is suggested that this largely unaltered pattern of fertility is a function of the peculiar form of economic development to which Kuwait has been subjected and of the strongly pro-natalist pressures associated with Arabic Islam.     

The contours of demography: Estimates and projections

This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.