Managerial Risk‐taking in International Acquisitions in the Brewery Industry: Institutional and Ownership Influences Compared

This paper deals with the role that institutional differences play in managerial risk‐taking when firms engage in international acquisitions. It is assumed that multinational corporations (MNCs) have different interests and capabilities when dealing with international acquisition, which in the authors’ view are significantly shaped by specific home country institutional influences. This study concerns the question of how different forms of ownership – concentrated (e.g. family and bank based) and dispersed (stock market based) – influence risk‐taking and managerial decision‐making in large international acquisitions. Comparing a total of 12 large acquisitions of four leading MNCs in the global brewery industry, the paper shows that mutually reinforcing influences of country of origin (coordinated vs liberal market economies) and ownership (family ownership vs stock market ownership) lead to different risk profiles and managerial risk‐taking with regard to international acquisitions.     

Simulating alternative organizational structures of production systems

Changes in international competition lead to changes of the requirements on production enterprises. The introduction of new production technologies does not seem to be exclusively an adequate reaction to the increasing problems. Therefore tools of computer-integrated production (CIM) and new organizational concepts have to be conceived. Because these organizational and technical means are linked on the one hand with severe changes in the production system and, on the other hand, with rather higher economic risks in their realization, the effects have to be estimated in advance in the planning stage. Consideration of dynamical system behaviour plays an important part because the main goal is the improvement of order processing. This paper presents a simulation program, which can be used during the design phase of the organizational structure of production systems as a powerful tool for predicting the effects of new computer-aided tools and structures.     

Culture in chaos: the need for leadership and followership in medicine.

The health care industry is changing at a dizzying pace and most of its players are struggling to maintain some form of the status quo. But resisting change will not prove fruitful--ultimately, it will rob physician executives of the opportunity to be architects in designing a new, more efficient health care system and their role in it. Because health care is a complex adaptive system (CAS)--change occurs rapidly and events are unpredictable--the old command and control style of leadership and a linear way of interpreting events is too rigid and, therefore, an ineffective model for guiding change. Complexity science offers insights about leading for change. In CASs, changes emerge in response to environmental demands for adaptability. Since the nature of these demands is unpredictable, the role of leadership is to manage the relationships and context out of which these changes emerge. A leadership style is called for that leads to purpose, makes positive changes by influencing context and relationships, and takes followers to a better place.     

A Medicare reform primer

The use of the federal budget process to change Medicare policy is of importance to physician executives because of its impact on the health care delivery system. In particular, changes in Medicare policy, driven by the need to shore up the solvency of a politically popular program, will create changes for other public and private purchasers of health care. Reforming Medicare through the budget process is not new. Physician fees have been frozen, reduced, and selectively increased as a result. In 1983, the hospital reimbursement methodology was changed to prospective payment through this process. The budget process will continue to be used to make policy changes because of the large amount that Medicare occupies of the federal budget. Given the profound impact changes in Medicare can have in other health care sectors, the lack of consensus for a long-term solution would mean those in the health care arena will have to be prepared for significant annual policy changes through the reconciliation process.     

Demographic Trends and Pension System in Italy: an Assessment of 1990s Reforms

Abstract. In the last decade the Italian pension system underwent many changes. The process has started in 1992 with three major reform laws (passed in 1992, 1995 and 1997), supplemented by many other minor changes. Among the innovations introduced in the pay‐as‐you‐go social security system, the most important one is the more explicit link between pensions and contributions, and pensions and life expectancy at retirement. The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of both the short‐term and the long‐term effects of the social security reforms on pension expenditure. Notwithstanding the slowdown in the growth rate of the pension expenditure/GDP ratio, the measures adopted so far will not be sufficient to eliminate the existing social security deficit in the next decades, particularly under the assumption of moderate economic performance and rapid population ageing. Reducing public pension expenditure requires the completion of the 1995 reform, a more rapid move towards a multi‐pillar pension scheme, and the implementation of the much needed growth‐enhancing structural reforms.     

The generalized process manufacturing systems package

Process manufacturing systems should not be considered a simple variation to a discrete manufacturing control system. The change is often quite complex and generally it becomes easier to create a new package customized for the process manufacturer rather than try to change an existing M RP-based-discrete package. This article discusses why a discrete-to-process conversion can be an ineffective way to create a production control system. It describes the types of changes that will be necessary for process manufacturing systems.     

库存成本变化的VMI供应链协调

提出了库存成本变化的经济订货批量(EOQ)模型，基于该模型研究了库存成本变化时供应商管理库存(VMI)系统的最优协议问题。在该系统中，订货商和供应商达成缺货成本共担协议：当缺货发生时，供应商需要向订货商支付缺货补偿。订货商和供应商分散决策，订货商通过设计协议来减少其成本，而供应商通过制定补货决策来缩小自身成本。通过与传统系统和整合系统的比较，得出了库存成本变化时VMI系统的最优补货决策和缺货成本共担协议。采用数值算例验证了分析结果。结果表明，当且仅当供应商预期成本等于整合系统的最小总成本与固定缺货罚金之和时，VMI系统与整合系统具有相同的补货决策和系统绩效，即能够实现供应链协调。     

Performance analysis of a multi-agent scheduling and control system under manufacturing disturbances

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of alternative multi-agent approaches to manufacturing planning and control. In order to separate the influence of ‘control algorithm’ from that of ‘control architecture’, a simple local control algorithm is chosen as a common starting point for developing the agent-based system. Two sets of experiments are then reported to evaluate how changes in individual agent characteristics can affect the control system's flexibility and adaptability against disturbances. These experiments show that the manufacturing and control system performance is not affected by architecture if the control algorithm remains fixed, however, altering the characteristics of the control system decision-makers influences both systems’ performance.     

Getting the most for your consulting dollars

Major changes in the health care financing and delivery system have usually been accompanied by an increase in demand within the health care field for consulting services. The passage of Medicare/Medicaid in 1965 is one example. The passage of the DRG-based prospective pricing system in 1983 is another. Both spawned a substantial amount of work, and income, for consulting firms. Now the health care field is engaged in nearly total transformation as the forces of health care reform at the national level are met with myriad adjustments at the local and regional levels. Managed care, already a byword, is being strengthened by a multitude of so-called integrated system initiatives. It is not easy to survive, and the call is out to consultants to save the day, or at least stave off disaster. In the following four articles, Marilyn Kennedy, a member of the ACPE faculty and a consultant herself, gives some advice on how to make the consulting arrangement successful; three physician executives provide a glimpse at consults that have worked, and some that did not work.     

Production control systems for small group production

Experience with small group production systems has shown that mere change of layout and introduction of groups on the shop floor do not achieve the main objectives and possible advantages of groups, unless they are accompanied by certain changes in supporting services. Probably the most important changes are those required in production control. It is absolutely vital that the requirements and characteristics of the manufacturing system are taken into account when designing the production control system and vice versa. This paper outlines the problems and important factors affecting production control in a Group Technology (GT) environment, together with case studies which describe the operation of production planning and control systems used in two different organisations.     

Integrating Kanban principles in a pharmaceutical campaign production system

Centralised planned campaign production is the predominant production system in process industries. In this study, we investigate whether a decentralised Kanban control system, which has proven to offer advantages in other industries, can be successfully integrated in a campaign production environment. The used research methodology combines model-based and case-study-based elements. Using the example of a pharmaceutical internal five-stage supply chain, we conceive a Kanban concept that integrates campaign formation, develop a discrete-event simulation model and conduct a range of explorative simulation experiments. We find that a Kanban campaign production system is not merely feasible but would also be favourable: throughput times can be reduced without increasing customer lead times. Sensitivity analysis shows that the system’s performance is relatively robust to changes in Kanban key configuration parameters such as number of Kanban cards or campaign size. We conclude by discussing our findings and formulating three propositions that might stimulate future research.     

The health care system should produce health

Reform of the U.S. health care system along the lines to be proposed by the Clinton Administration will not be an easy task, and it will not be accomplished quickly. A fundamental objective of the changes should be a health system whose purpose is improvement in the health of U.S. citizens, and not just the provision of services to all. This column is jointly edited by Kevin M. Fickenscher, MD, and David A. Kindig, MD, PhD, chair and member, respectively, of the College's Forum on National Health Policy. Dr. Fickenscher is participating in various advisory capacities on health care in the Clinton Administration, and Dr. Kindig is Senior Advisor to HHS Secretary Donna Shalala.     

HEURISTIC LOT-SIZING AND SEQUENCING RULES IN A MULTISTAGE PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEM

Material Requirements Planning (MRP) is currently being applied and used extensively in industry and is being proclaimed as the solution to many of the problems of traditional production-inventory control problems. While the latter may be true, MRP is not without its own problems, two of which are the decisions concerning the appropriate lotsizing and sequencing rules to use in order to improve system performance. This paper describes a computer simulation study which was conducted to determine the effects of using various sequencing and lot-sizing rules on various performance criteria in a multistage, multiproduct, production-inventory system using MRP. The results of the study indicate that the application of various rules causes changes in system performance and that an interaction effect exists between lot-sizing and sequencing rules. What is more important is that a set of guidelines is developed to enable the practitioner to choose a lot-sizing rule and a sequencing rule that will tend to improve the performance of his system for the various performance criteria.     

Dynamic performance of a hybrid inventory system with a Kanban policy in remanufacturing process

In this paper we study a hybrid system with both manufacturing and remanufacturing. The inventory control strategy we use in the manufacturing loop is an automatic pipeline, inventory and order based production control system (APIOBPCS). In the remanufacturing loop we employ a Kanban policy to represent a typical pull system. The methodology adopted uses control theory and simulation. The aim of the research is to analyse the dynamic (as distinct from the static) performance of the specified hybrid system. Dynamics have implications on total costs in terms of inventory holding, capacity utilisation and customer service failures. We analyse the parameter settings to find preferred “nominal”, “fast” and “slow” values in terms of system dynamics performance criteria such as rise time, settling time and overshoot. Based on these parameter settings, we investigate the robustness of the system to changes in return yield and the manufacturing/remanufacturing lead time. Our results clearly show that the system is robust with respect to the system dynamics performance and the remanufacturing process can help to improve system dynamics performance. Thus, the perceived benefits of remanufacturing of products, both environmentally and economically, as quoted in the literature are found not to be detrimental to system dynamics performance when a Kanban policy is used to control the remanufacturing process.     

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety.     

考虑信息平台优化的医疗服务系统决策研究

微信、支付宝等手机应用上预约挂号和智能分诊的实现,实质上是信息平台优化。而信息平台优化投入对患者就医偏好的影响具有不确定性。通过分析信息平台优化投入对患者就诊选择影响,本文构建了考虑信息平台优化的医疗服务系统。与以往研究不同的是,系统中的期望等待时间为更精确的等待队列等待时间。另外,服务提供者的最优化决策变量创新地由医疗服务能力转为信息平台优化的投入,同时资金提供者的决策目标为最小化社会医疗成本。本文研究了医疗服务系统的均衡策略与均衡状态的性质。其次,对不同医疗服务规模的医疗服务系统的均衡状态进行了对比。研究发现,对于公共医疗系统,信息平台优化的最优投入与患者自付率无关,而这有助于实现基本医疗服务均等化。本文从数理上证明了,在均衡状态下,当患者的医疗需要增加时,划拨到公立医院的预算会减少。患者自付率与医疗服务的复杂度无关,即患者负担的医疗费用与医疗服务的复杂度无关。     

基于路径依赖视角的我国MAH制度实施演化博弈分析

MAH制度是国际公认通行的药品上市审批制度,具有生产形式多样化、技术转让自由、节约市场资源以及提升政府行政监管质量等优点。2016年,我国在北京、上海等10个省（市）开展药品上市许可持有人制度（MAH）试点工作。本文根据我国药品上市制度变迁的路径依赖问题,构建演化博弈模型,分别对由药品研发机构、药品生产企业构成的内部制度变迁和由政府、消费者构成的外部制度变迁进行分析,深入研究博弈主体行为的演化路径。研究表明：内部制度和外部制度路径依赖是制约我国医药产业发展和新药研发动力不足的主要原因,药品上市内部制度变迁主要通过规模效应和适应性预期影响药品研发机构和药品生产企业,从而产生药品上市内部制度路径依赖;药品上市外部制度变迁主要通过学习效应和协调效应影响政府和消费者,从而产生药品上市外部制度路径依赖。在此基础上,运用Matlab数值分析对药品制度变迁过程中的最优稳定策略进行探讨,解释了我国MAH制度变迁过程中存在的路径依赖问题,为完善我国MAH制度、破除路径依赖提供了一定参考。     

The Effect of Demand–Supply Mismatches on Firm Risk

A supply chain management (SCM) system comprises many subsystems, including forecasting, order management, supplier management, procurement, production planning and control, warehousing and distribution, and product development. Demand–supply mismatches (DSMs) could indicate that some or all of these subsystems are not working as expected, creating uncertainties about the overall capabilities and effectiveness of the SCM system, which can increase firm risk. This article documents the effect of DSMs on firm risk as measured by equity volatility. Our sample consists of three different types of DSMs announced by publicly traded firms: production disruptions, excess inventory, and product introduction delays. We find that all three types of DSMs result in equity volatility increases. Over a 2‐year period around the announcement date, we observe mean abnormal equity volatility increases of 5.62% for production disruptions, 11.19% for excess inventory, and 6.28% for product introduction delays. Volatility increases associated with excess inventory are significantly higher than the increases associated with production disruptions and product introduction delays. Across all three types of DSMs, volatility changes are positively correlated with changes in information asymmetry. The results provide some support that volatility changes are also correlated with changes in financial and operating leverage.     

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Decision support systems (DSSs) are more complex than most other traditional decision-aid systems. For what types of problems are they more effective, and what design characteristics make them more effective? The laboratory experiment reported here examined the effect of three design characteristics of these systems in the context of decision makers faced with ill-structured problems. The characteristics were presence or absence of decision-aid heuristics, degree of interaction between the user and the system, and whether or not the system was computerized. The dependent variables were (1) quality of user performance, (2) user productivity of ideas, (3) user confidence in the quality of his/her performance, (4) user satisfaction with the decision aid or support system, (5) changes in user attitude toward the problem addressed, and (6) changes in user attitude toward computers. Use of heuristics and increased interaction had positive effects on decision quality, user productivity, and attitude toward computers; they had negative effects on user confidence, satisfaction, and attitude toward the problem addressed. Whether or not the system was computerized did not have a significant effect on any dependent variable. The findings concerning negative effects, in particular, suggest the need for research on the design of heuristics for addressing ill-structured problems—heuristics that will deliver the positive but not the negative effects observed in this study. The findings also suggest the need for research on how to benefit from computers in the context of solving ill-structured problems.     

THE MARKET SHARE IMPACT OF SERVICE FAILURES

This paper develops a simple but powerful model that relates service satisfaction/dissatisfaction to market share. The model is based on an intuitive service satisfaction framework that relates three service system parameters (service success rate, complaint rate, and service recovery rate) to the percent of satisfied customers. A dynamic model is then posited that relates the defection rate and the addition rate to market share changes. The service satisfaction/market share model yields useful insights into how market share is influenced by these service system parameters. The surprisingly simple model predicts changes in market share due to changes in customer satisfaction.