The world population on the threshold of the 21st century

Global population trends are reviewed. The author rejects the idea that demographic factors exert a decisive affect on socioeconomic development, and maintains the Marxist-Leninist view that demographic trends are a reflection of socioeconomic systems. He suggests that the resources of the planet can support a larger population than it contains at present providing these resources are used rationally.     

Optimizing the “demographic dividend” in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population, also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working‐age population – essentially the labor force – to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, Sub‐Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth‐focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low‐skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.     

A real threat to the nation's future

The seriousness of the current demographic situation in Russia is reviewed, with the focus on the deteriorating health of the nation's children. The author notes that "a drastically diminished level of reproduction of the population has taken shape in Russia, one in which every generation of children born is smaller in number than the generation of its parents and cannot make up for the loss in population. Such reproduction is characteristic only of Russia, and it is extremely persistent. In 1994, the true coefficient of reproduction of the population fell to figures that are catastrophic in terms of demographic consequences--0.651. Moreover, among the urban population the figure is even lower--0.570. Such an unprecedented low level of reproduction has never before been recorded either in our country or in other countries of the world, even during wartime."     

2015：中国人口学研究回顾和述评

2015年,中国人口学在诸多领域取得了较有影响力的研究成果。通过对本年度国内主要人口学核心期刊《人口研究》《中国人口科学》《人口与经济》《人口学刊》《人口与发展》《西北人口》《南方人口》以及人大复印资料《人口学》等进行文献检索,梳理相关的代表性文献,对中国人口学研究重点关注的人口生育政策、老龄化与老年健康、人口流动和城镇化、人口与经济、人口统计与方法等若干领域以及婚姻家庭等相关主题进行了系统回顾与评述。     

Long-Term Trends in the Reproduction of the Population

The determination of long-term prospects for change in the size and structure of the population and trends in its reproduction and development in general has ceased to be a purely theoretical demographic problem and has acquired paramount practical importance. The primary reason for this is that the implementation of many long-term socioeconomic programs in our country now may take longer than one or two five-year periods. Moreover, the strategy used in resolving certain global problems (for example, the correlation of the size and structure of the population on the one hand and the availability and condition of natural resources on the other) can be implemented only from the standpoint of the extended future. In themselves programs for the development of the population and measures of demographic policy can also be scientifically constructed only on the basis of forecasts calculated for a considerable future period: such a program must essentially be stable for a Professor Kvasha holds a doctorate in economics; I. Kaliniuk holds a candidate's degree in economics.     

改革开放以来北京市流动人口研究回顾与展望

改革开放30年来,北京市流动人口的规模一直并将继续扩大;并由城区、近郊区向远郊区县扩散;来京流动人口表现出较强烈的留京愿望。在此基础上,我们认为应加强对流动人口统计方法和在京流动人口社会政策建构等方面的研究,加强对在京流动人口需求的调查,着重解决流动人口的就业、住房、社会保障等难题,转变管理理念和工作模式,促进在京流动人口的社会融合。     

Demographic Transition

Some forecasts based on possible trends in population in Russia suggest that it may be possible to achieve stabilization of the population. However, the actual demographic situation and the conditions in Russian society raise doubt about this, and about the possibility of sustaining and enhancing the quality of an aging and declining population. Russia's future and the possibilities for successful modernization of the economy and its transition to an innovative path of development depend on the quality and structure of the population.     

Generalized Population Aging in China: A National-Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

The age structure of the Chinese population is entering a process of generalized aging in which the major age groupings will see a fall in the ratio of younger age groups and a rise in the ratio of older age groups, with varying levels of socioeconomic significance for the entire population system. The implementation of the unconditional two-child policy (quanmian erhai zhengce) has not changed this general trend. The early stage of population aging (2011-2060) is one of the high-speed development of generalized aging with multiple growth peaks and fluctuations in the size, growth rate and internal structure of the major age groupings. From the perspective of generalized population aging, China’s future contains four major systemic demographic dividends and faces four major systemic demographic risks. The early stage of aging is the most important period for the transformation of the population age structure. If society can adjust to the aging trend and the phased nature of the development of this trend, it will be able to seize the initiative in long-term development.     

The Coming of an Aged Society in Taiwan: Issues and Policies

For most advanced industrialized countries, an aging society has been a national issue since the 1970s. However, Taiwan was not aware of this issue until 1993, the year when the old‐age population reached 7.0%. As an aging nation under the definition of the United Nations, the Taiwanese government began to pay more attention to the aging population, and executed several policies in response to this demographic transition. First, this article examines Taiwan’s demographic transition from an aging society to an aged society, and its impacts. Second, it demonstrates the responses of Taiwan to the coming of an aged society and explores crucial issues that Taiwanese society is facing.     

The Ageing of Australia: Fiscal Sustainability,Intergenerational Equity and Inter‐temporal Fiscal Balance

Australian public policy makers are presently confronted with significant demographic changes that will profoundly affect the formulation of rational economic and social policy over the long term. This paper seeks to outline the potential impact of this demographic change and place it in historical perspective. The challenges posed by an ageing population for fiscal policy are explored and it is stressed that policy inertia will invite severe costs in future. It is argued that an appropriate policy stance should be developed in the context of a framework for inter‐temporal fiscal balance not only to focus on long‐run fiscal sustainability, but also to include considerations of intergenerational equity.     

Do we need a theory of demographic transition?

The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.     

Providing social security in a context of change: Experience and challenges in Latin America

Over the past two decades Latin America has experienced major demographic, economic and social changes. The trend towards accelerated ageing of the population in most countries, together with the financial restrictions faced by social protection systems, has brought sweeping changes in pension programmes. The new demographic and labour context presents challenges for these new programmes which, unless they make the necessary adaptations, will definitely be unable to attain their stated objective of providing universal coverage and eliminating poverty in old age. This article offers a general discussion of the processes that the region is undergoing, as well as the limitations and challenges imposed by existing welfare systems. Finally, it examines the options available to retain the objective of universal coverage and thus ensure the economic needs of the elderly population.     

Structural pressures, social policy and poverty

The purpose of this article is twofold. The first aim is to examine 15 OECD countries from the point of view of the so-called third-generation studies, analysing if the development of poverty and income transfers has been uniform in countries classified under the same welfare state models. This has been done to test how appropriate it is to use welfare state models as an analytical tool in comparative welfare state research. The second aim is to examine the effect of different structural factors on poverty and income transfers. Obtained results indicate that two demographic variables studied behave somewhat differently. The share of older people in the population is – not very surprisingly – connected to an increase in income transfers. In the case of younger population groups, the results are the opposite. The results show that the greater the proportion of older people in the population, the lower the poverty rates. Social policy has in many countries consisted primarily of pension policy, and investments in the elderly population are now beginning to bear fruit. Good pension schemes diminish the immediate poverty risk of older people. As a consequence of their increased well-being, the overall poverty rate will fall. In addition to demographic factors, the results indicate that the unemployment rate is connected, on the one hand, to growth in income transfers and, on the other hand, also to increases in poverty. However, unemployment's effect on poverty is not straightforward. The direct effect is indeed an increase in poverty but, if income transfers are taken into account, the indirect effect is a decrease in poverty, since unemployment increases income transfers (unemployment benefits), which on their side alleviate poverty.     

近年来北京市人口分布变动的空间特征分析

本文运用空间统计方法来研究近年来北京市人口郊区化的动态变化过程。研究结果表明,北京市人口郊区化发展迅速,近郊区已经基本实现城市化,并和中心城区一起组成了新的核心区域,人口正不断向这个新的核心区域聚集。目前北京市城市化的进程正处在新一轮的集聚阶段,新的核心区域人口越来越密集。由于地区经济发展的不平衡性,这种趋势在短期内难以改变;但在长期内,整个区域内人口分布将向均衡化趋势发展。     

The Changing Socio‐Demographic Composition of Poverty in Australia: 1982 to 2004

The extent of income poverty and its socio‐demographic composition are examined using all ABS income surveys conducted over the period 1982 to 2004. There has been some increase in the proportion of the population in poverty, particularly since 1997, but of more note are the substantial changes in the socio‐demographic composition of those in poverty. Compared with the start of the sample period, persons in poverty at the end of the period were much more likely to be older, in families without dependent children, holding post‐school qualifications and/or foreign‐born. In part, these changes reflect broader changes in the composition of the population. However, changes in the risks of poverty associated with different characteristics have also produced large changes in the composition of the poor, and have in some cases counteracted or reversed effects of demographic change. Specifically, the risk of poverty has increased for the elderly, non‐dependent youth, single people, foreign‐born persons and those without post‐school qualifications, and it has decreased for sole parent families and residents of Queensland, the ACT and the Northern Territory.     

Occupation and Suicide

Objective . Research on occupation and suicide has neglected multivariate models. It is not clear, for example, if persons in alleged "high-risk" occupations have high suicide risk because of occupational stress associated with the occupation or because of the demographic composition of the people in the occupation. The present study explores the relationship between occupation and suicide for 32 occupational groups. Methods . Data are from the national mortality file tapes, which cover 21 states. They refer to 9,499 suicides and 134,386 deaths from all other causes in 1990. Results . Bivariate logistic regression models find a total of 15 occupations with either significantly higher (e.g., dentists, artists, machinists, auto mechanics, and carpenters) or lower (e.g., clerks, elementary school teachers, cooks) risk than the rest of the working-age population. Multivariate models that remove the demographic covariates of occupation find only eight occupations with greater or lower than expected risk of death by suicide. Conclusion . The results underscore the need for demographic controls in the assessment of occupational risk of suicide. They are consistent with a previous study based on data from England. The findings provide the first systematic evidence on the problem for the United States.     

京津冀一体化对首都人口规模的影响

京津冀区域一体化人口规模预测的主要功能,是反映该区域经济、社会、人口发展的基本走势,包括未来集聚的程度、增长速度、主要结构变动的情况。本文首先对该区域现有的人口数据进行了必要的校核;其次,对京津冀区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的历史轨迹与特点进行分析,阐述未来影响区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的主要因素和变化趋势;最后,采用多模型预测,给出了区域及各城市总人口规模的预测值。     

Correlates of Psychological Distress and Major Depressive Disorder Among African American Men

This study examines the demographic correlates of depressive symptoms, serious psychological distress (SPD), and major depressive disorder (MDD; 12-month and lifetime prevalence) among a national sample of African American men. Analysis of the National Survey of American Life (NSAL) data set provides first-time substantiation of important demographic differences in depressive symptoms (measured by the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale [CES-D]), SPD (measured by the K6), and 12-month and lifetime MDD among African American men. Findings illuminate the heterogeneity within the African American male population. Findings also demonstrate the need for additional research focusing on within-group differences and a comprehensive research and mental health promotion agenda that recognizes the importance of improving access to education and employment and promoting healthy coping behaviors, while acknowledging the larger social context in which African American men live.     

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE ELDERLY POPULATION

This paper reviews demographic trends and their implications for the growing population of elderly people, as well as their impact upon the total population of the nation. The nature and characteristics of frailty should be an area of major concern, as should the implications of frailty as related to service delivery. Although attention is being paid to the concept of frailty, no commonly accepted operational definition of frailty has as yet been developed.     

Transformation of Social Care Services for the Elderly in Slovakia

ABSTRACT

The main objective of this article is to present a theoretical framework for the relevant historical, economic, demographic, and political factors influencing the transformation of social care services for the elderly in Slovakia. A major restructuring of the social care services for the elderly is necessitated by the aging of the Slovak population (demographic reason), the path dependency of the current Slovak elderly care system (historical reason), the growing purchasing power of older people and the general population (economic reason), and new requirements formulated by the European Union and the general public (political reason). Historical documents, legislative acts, strategic documents, international project documents, and statistics were reviewed, and 34 open-ended interviews within the framework of two case studies were carried out in order to obtain qualitative and quantitative data. The theoretical framework and the results based on those interviews indicate that the Slovak social care service for the elderly may turn out to become more similar to the advanced Central European systems, but also that prompt legislative and financial changes are required. Nevertheless, the future direction can only be more precisely identified when more case studies can be compared with one another.