Group Involvement and Democratic Orientations: Social Capital in the Postelection Context

Objective . This article tests the relationship between involvement in voluntary associations and attitudinal changes considered supportive of democratic principles and system legitimacy. Methods . We utilize 1996 pre- and postelection American National Election Studies panel data to test the proposed relationship. The effects of reported levels of group involvement are examined across three attitudinal measures of democratic support: trust in government, external efficacy, and absolute differences in postelection evaluations of the winning and losing candidates. Results . Greater involvement in voluntary organizations contributes to increased levels of postelection trust in government and external efficacy and a reduction in postelection polarization of comparative candidate evaluations. Conclusions . In addition to supporting the social capital proposition linking group involvement to orientations viewed as enhancing of democracy, this study also contributes to a growing literature linking individual-level behavior to changes in systemic-level attitudes.     

Strategic and Sincere Voting in a One‐Sided Election: The Canadian Federal Election of 1997*

Objective. We are interested in whether and how voters make strategic decisions in a race that is, according to the polls, expected to be very one sided. Looking specifically at the choices available to ideologically right‐of‐center voters in the 1997 Canadian federal election, we argue that strategic considerations will be filtered by voters' assessments of the competitiveness of the race both locally and nationally. Methods. We estimate logistic regression models measuring support for the two right‐of‐center Canadian political parties. Our models focus on the relationship between assessments of district‐ and national‐level party prospects on voting for the Progressive Conservative Party. Results. We find that voters who consider the race competitive emphasize district‐level data in their strategic calculations. However, those who consider the election to be all but over look more closely at national‐level concerns when deciding which right‐wing party to support. Conclusions. We conclude that earlier understandings of tactical voting should be updated to take into consideration the circumstances under which voters will use national‐level evaluations of relative party viability in casting their ballots.     

After New Labour: political and policy consequences of welfare state reforms in the United Kingdom and Australia

ABSTRACT

Growing global integration, combined with the collapse of Soviet Communism, created major challenges for centre-left politics in the democratic world. This article considers two transformative Labour Party-led experiments that refurbished the welfare states of Australia and the United Kingdom, respectively. In Australia, this includes the Hawke–Keating (1983–1996) and Rudd–Gillard (2007–2013) Governments, and in the United Kingdom, the ‘New Labour’ Blair–Brown Governments (1997–2010). We present a comparative political economy of these welfare reforms, one that draws on both the policy transfer and policy diffusion literatures. By the 1980s, both parties faced three problems related to national economic decline, the ideological challenge to Keynesianism, and the decline of the traditional working-class electorate. We argue both parties developed common electoral and governing strategies aimed at winning support for a market-driven social-democratic program. Policy simultaneously compensated voters for market inequalities and deepened market relations. Focusing on how labour governments managed post-industrial change, responded to inequalities, advanced quasi-markets, and negotiated with union partners, we argue these experiments produced increasingly contradictory results that left both parties electorally and ideologically depleted. Despite important similarities, we note differences – starting points, discrete events and institutional variations have mattered to reform paths and their consequences.     

How Do Voters Form Expectations about the Parties' Chances of Winning the Election?*

Objective. This article examines the factors that form voters' perceptions of the parties' chances of winning at both the national and the local levels. Method. We make use of the 1988 Canadian Election Study and we employ a HLM model to estimate the effect of individual‐level and contextual‐level variables. Results. It is shown that voters' expectations are affected by a combination of “objective” contextual information and personal preferences (projection effects). Conclusion. The basic contextual information that is utilized to ascertain local chances is the outcome of the previous election in the local constituency, whereas polls are crucial in the case of perceived national chances. We also find that the most politically aware are more strongly influenced by “objective” indicators.     

New Voters,New Outlook? Predispositions,Social Networks,and the Changing Politics of Gay Civil Rights*

Objectives. This study examines the factors that shape public acceptance of homosexuality and support for same-sex marriage across age cohorts.Methods. We analyzed data from two national surveys. We constructed hierarchical logistic and hierarchical ordinary least squares regressions for relevant age cohorts in order to test our hypotheses and explore our research questions.Results. Our models suggest that personal contact has a greater impact on the attitudes of younger respondents, positively influencing public acceptance of homosexuality. Alternatively, religious and ideological predispositions have a greater impact on the attitudes of older individuals. When examining public support for gay marriage, we find that younger individuals have higher levels of deliberative engagement with the issue debate, while older individuals rely more heavily on their predispositions when determining issue stance. Interestingly, measures of media exposure are not significantly related to either public acceptance of homosexuality or support for same-sex marriage, suggesting that other factors may have a greater impact on public attitudes at this point in time.Conclusion. The implications of these findings are discussed in light of the emergence of a new political generation and the continuing struggle for gay civil rights.     

A Reason to Believe: Examining the Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming*

Objectives. In this article we examine the causes of both belief and disbelief in global warming among adult Americans. Methods. We use national‐ and state‐level telephone surveys to collect data on individual‐level beliefs regarding climate change and employ ordered logistical regression to measures the relative effect of various factors on those beliefs. Results. The study finds that U.S. views on climate change are being shaped by a combination of personal observations, meteorological events, and physical changes on the planet. The impact of various factors on one's belief in global warming are significantly determined by partisan affiliation, with Democrats and Republicans responding differently to assorted types of evidence. Conclusion. Beliefs regarding global warming are being shaped by individual experiences and weather phenomenon and the processing of such factors is substantially influenced by a person's partisan leanings.     

International Nongovernmental Organizations and Deforestation: Good,Bad, or Irrelevant?*

Objective. This research adds to our understanding of environmental degradation by evaluating the “contested” role international nongovernmental organizations play in managing environmental problems. Methods. I use cross‐national data for a sample of up to 70 nations to examine the effect of international nongovernmental organizations on deforestation for the period of 1990 to 2000. The models also include relevant controls for gross national product, economic growth, population growth, democracy, government expenditures, domestic investment, forest stocks, exports, multinational corporations, and structural adjustment. Results. The main findings indicate that nations with higher levels of international nongovernmental organizations presence have lower levels of deforestation. I also examine the effects of international nongovernmental organizations at different levels of democracy by including an interaction term between international nongovernmental organizations and democracy. In doing so, I find that international nongovernmental organizations continue to reduce deforestation. However, they reduce deforestation more at higher rather than at lower levels of democracy. Conclusions. This research illustrates that international nongovernmental organizations reduce deforestation despite claims to the contrary. However, their effectiveness appears to be affected by the level of democracy in a nation.     

北部湾（广西）区域旅游竞争力影响因素实证分析与提升对策探讨

结合区域旅游竞争力的实际情况得出影响区域旅游竞争力的因素主要分为资源因素、市场因素、旅游设施因素、政策因素、支撑因素、基础设施、管理因素、其他因素等8个项目,在进行北部湾（广西）区域旅游的竞争力影响因素的实证分析基础上得出影响北部湾（广西）区域旅游竞争力的因素重要性排序为区域旅游资源整合能力、国际旅游、区域旅游交通、区域旅游发展整体水平、区域政策支撑度。基于此科学地提出北部湾（广西）区域旅游的竞争力提升策略。     

Breaking it is one thing,fixing it is another: Responsibility attributions and support for the U.S. Presidency,Congress, and the Supreme Court

When do attributions of responsibility predict support for governmental institutions? Data from an online survey of 508 United States citizens examining attributions for their most salient national problem revealed associations between attributions and evaluations of the Presidency, Supreme Court, and Congress. With respect to the Presidency, causal attributions were related to more negative evaluations, while resolution attributions were related to more positive evaluations. This was especially true for conservative participants. With respect to the Supreme Court, causal attributions were related to more negative evaluations. With respect to Congress, there was an association between causal attributions and negative evaluations, but only for those with a low level of resolution attributions. Results are discussed in terms of the political climate and differences in institutional expectations.     

Who won political elections in Hong Kong over time?

Addressing the question about who won in political elections in Hong Kong can reveal its trajectory of democratic development. Because a democracy requires fair representation in elected members, whose performance and ideological orientation can appeal to rational and ideologically sophisticated citizens, incumbents and partisans tend to be more successful in winning the democratic election. To examine this instance of democratic development, the study compiles a dataset including all candidates (3,811 cases) contesting for elections from 1982 to 2000. It finds the general trend that incumbents and partisans of some major parties were more likely to win the contests. Furthermore, it estimates the relative chance separately for 17 elections during the period and examines the influence of time. As a result, it detects that the favorable effects of incumbency and party affiliation tended to increase with time. These findings imply the steady democratic development in Hong Kong.     

Ideological polarization in a decentralized party system: Explaining interstate differences

During the past decade scholars have noted growing ideological polarization between Democratic and Republican Party elites in the United States. This trend has occurred in a party system traditionally characterized as decentralized. This paper examines whether the trend towards partisan polarization noted by scholars at the national level has affected state party systems in similar ways. Are some state party systems more polarized than others? The paper uses a classification scheme of state party systems developed by David Mayhew to try to explain interstate differences in partisan polarization. The paper concludes that states with political environments that supported pragmatic and non-ideological traditional party organizations are less polarized in the modern era than states without such environments.     

Differential customer racial attitudes toward scandal and patriotism: The Mitchell Report,the Olympics,race, and baseball memorabilia

This paper investigates differential customer racial reaction to negative and positive publicity related to professional athletes. In terms of negative publicity, it analyzes the effect of mention in the Mitchell Report on the price of baseball cards. In regards to positive publicity, it considers the impact of having been identified as a member of the United States Olympic or national team. After controlling for player productivity with performance statistics, the effects of being mentioned in the Mitchell Report are isolated within regression analysis to draw conclusions concerning customer racial attitudes toward the steroids scandal. Similar analysis is conducted to see the impact of being seen as a baseball representative of the United States. Regression results are consistent with the conclusion that negative publicity devalues the cards of nonWhite players but not of White players. Positive publicity, however, increases the value of a player's card regardless of ethnicity.     

Ideology over strategy: Extending voting rights to felons and ex-felons, 1966-1992

The disenfranchisement of felons and ex-felons has long served to restrict the practice of democracy in the United States. In the late 20th century, a number of states allowed increasing numbers of felons and ex-felons to vote. Previous work has noted that Democrats are often associated with extensions of voting rights to felons and ex-felons. If this is the case, what accounts for their support for re-enfranchisement? In this paper I conduct a series of event history analyses of voting rights policy changes at the state level. I argue that Democratic support was not based on expected electoral benefits that might derive from changes in the composition of the electorate. Instead, analyses suggest that would-be reformers—often Democratic, but also Republican—were importantly constrained by the ideological climate among a state's population. Thus, policy liberalism appears to have trumped crass partisan strategizing in encouraging restoration of voting rights to felons and ex-felons. Results also confirm claims that local patterns of racial domination were relevant in decisions to re-enfranchise or not.     

Acculturation Effects on Trust in National and Local Government Among Mexican Americans*

Objectives. The objectives of this article are to examine the impact of acculturation on the levels of trust in both the national and local governments in a long‐term minority‐majority community and to consider the effect on Mexican Americans' level of trust of long‐term co‐ethnic control of local government. Methods. Ordered probit is applied to measures of local and national political trust derived from the National Election Studies. Data were drawn from a sample of Latino respondents residing in the predominantly Mexican‐American region of south Texas. Independent variables include a language‐based measure of acculturation, a measure of interethnic social interaction, and items dealing with respondents' evaluations of the honesty, efficiency, and beneficiaries of governmental policies. Clarify is then used to estimate the real‐world impacts of these variables. Results. Acculturation has a significant and negative impact on trust in the national government. This effect vanishes, however, at the local level. Moreover, co‐ethnic control of government appears not to be related to trust. Conclusions. Trust in the national government is significantly reduced by acculturation, while trust in local government is unaffected. Moreover, trust in government is not enhanced by co‐ethnic control of the levers of political power.     

Welfare Ideologies and Theories of Federalism

This paper examines from a theoretical perspective how each of three major ideological orientations towards the welfare state (structural left; social democracy; new/far right) might incorporate an intermediate level of interest between a central and local governments—namely, a province. While the analysis is most straightforward at either end of the spectrum, it is complex for the middle grouping. The paper observes one commonality across all points on the ideological spectrum: there is an increasing loss of faith and disillusionment everywhere with big government, with a resulting focus on more local neighbourhoods and communities (which may or may not include provinces). A brief case example, dealing with the development of legal aid in Canada, is presented for illustrative purposes. The paper ultimately suggests caution: in a world of monetarist economic policies, a central government must always retain pre-eminent interest.     

Selective exposure to partisan media: Moderating factors in evaluations of the president

The conditions in which moderating factors – media trust, mediabias, and political ideology – increase or limit the approval ratings of a politician in a partisan media environment were investigated using data obtained from the 2010 Pew survey. The findings show that media trust and media bias intensify negative presidential evaluations among consumers of conservative news programs, whereas these factors do not influence presidential approval among consumers of liberal news programs. The findings also reveal that conservatives tend to choose to be exposed to news messages that are congenial to their ideological orientations, while liberals select a more balanced diet of news messages. This study proposes that moderating factors have different effects on conservative and liberal news consumers.     

A multilevel analysis of the determinants of willingness to pay to prevent environmental pollution across countries

This paper discusses the extent to which individual and contextual level factors influence the likelihood of individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to prevent environmental pollution. A multilevel probit regression framework was set up to explain WTP to prevent environmental pollution. We use data from the World Values Survey (WVS), which contains socio-economic and socio-demographic information, and merged it with country level covariates. Compared to many previous studies, our dataset encompasses a more indepth set of individual level covariates. We find that rich people, individuals with higher education, as well as those who possess post-materialist values are more likely to be concerned about environmental pollution. This study reveals that in developed countries, 90% of country variation in WTP to prevent environmental pollution can be explained by individual characteristics. This portion reduces to 80% in the case of developing countries. An interesting feature in our study is the ability to investigate the effect of contextual factors on individuals’ willingness to contribute for the environment. We observe that both democracy and government stability reduce individuals’ intention to donate to prevent environmental damage mainly in developed countries.     

The Prison Industry: Carceral Expansion and Employment in U.S. Counties, 1969–1994*

Objectives. Despite the interest that social scientists have displayed in the rising rate of incarceration, little attention has been devoted to understanding its consequences for local areas. This is an important omission because prison construction has become a component of state and local economic development schemes. Indeed, there is a widespread belief that prison construction provides significant economic benefits to local areas. Methods. We analyze data on all existing and new prisons in the United States since 1960 and examine the impact of these prisons on the pace of growth (as measured by public, private, and total employment growth) in U.S. counties from 1969 to 1994. To our knowledge, our study is the first comprehensive and longitudinal assessment of the impact of prison construction on local areas. Results. We find no evidence that prison expansion has stimulated economic growth. In fact, we provide evidence that prison construction has impeded economic growth in rural counties that have been growing at a slow pace. Conclusion. Despite sharp ideological and intellectual differences, the critics and the advocates of the prison construction boom share the assumption that prisons can contribute to local growth, especially in hard‐pressed local areas. This belief flies in the face of mounting evidence that state and local initiatives rarely have a significant impact on growth; this belief is also contradicted by our analyses.     

Stadium size, ticket allotments and home field advantage in college football

This study builds on a conceptual framework that explores of the relationship between relative fan attendance, stadium size and home field advantage in college football. We extend the conceptual model by providing empirical estimates of the impact that various ticket allotment arrangements and home stadium size have on the probability of winning in college football. The Auburn–Alabama rivalry (the “Iron Bowl”) provides a unique case given that the series has been played both at a neutral site with an equal division of tickets, as well as on a home-and-home basis with an uneven ticket split and nonuniform stadium capacities.