Partial Distributional Policy Effects

In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate the effect of a counterfactual change in the unconditional distribution of a single covariate on the unconditional distribution of an outcome variable of interest. Both fixed and infinitesimal changes are considered. We show that such effects are point identified under general conditions if the covariate affected by the counterfactual change is continuously distributed, but are typically only partially identified if its distribution is discrete. For the latter case, we derive informative bounds, making use of the available information. We also discuss estimation and inference.     

违约风险、银行信贷筛选与货币政策非对称效应

本文构建一个包含企业违约风险与银行信贷筛选的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究银行信贷筛选对货币政策宏观经济效应产生的影响。在参数校准的基础上,分析了货币政策冲击的长期效应与短期效应。研究结果显示：(1)无论是基于长期还是短期效应的角度,银行信贷筛选均显著抑制了扩张性货币政策对宏观经济产生的积极影响;(2)基于货币政策冲击的短期效应可以发现,银行信贷筛选降低了扩张性货币政策的实际效应,并且放大了货币政策对通胀的影响;(3)通过比较扩张性与紧缩性货币政策的脉冲响应可以发现,银行信贷筛选导致货币政策的宏观经济效应存在非对称性特征。福利分析的结果表明,相比无银行信贷筛选的情形而言,银行信贷筛选导致了整体社会福利的恶化。     

基于非线性VAR模型对我国货币政策非对称作用效应的实证检验

本文基于1990年1月至2008年12月间的月度数据,利用Logistic平滑迁移向量自回归(LSTVAR)模型来描述和检验我国货币政策作用机制中是否存在非对称效应。LSTVAR模型的估计和脉冲响应函数结果表明,我国实际产出序列和通货膨胀率过程对货币冲击的动态反应随着冲击方向、规模以及经济周期阶段的变化而改变,货币政策对实际产出和价格水平的作用具有非对称性,这说明总供给和总需求之间存在着非线性关系。     

经济增长和环境质量相容性政策条件——环境技术进步方向视角下的政策偏向效应检验

现有文献关注政策规制的经济与环境绩效,却并未重视不同类型政策的技术偏向,以及技术偏态情境中经济增长和环境质量相容发展的政策条件。本文扩展Acemoglu等(2012)的环境技术进步方向模型,数理演绎不同性质政策的技术偏向,以及技术进步方向转变时经济增长和环境质量的动态演化过程,再结合我国经济数据进行政策效果评价。研究结果发现:(1)环境技术进步方向是技术研发效率和环境政策累积作用的结果,环境政策会通过影响不同类型技术创新激励的方式,改变环境技术进步方向。(2)异质性政策转变技术进步方向,影响经济增长和环境质量,其作用存在不同的着力点和偏向性。其中,研发补贴政策的清洁技术偏向和产出激励效果明显,而规制类政策的环境质量效应优于研发补贴,但其对经济增长的作用表现出非线性U型特征。(3)单一政策干预往往难以破除经济增长和环境质量的两难困境,而政策组合的效果明显优于单一政策,特别是在碳排放权交易试点地区实施研发补贴政策,以及在碳排放权交易试点地区同时实行环境税与研发补贴,效果明显优于实施单一政策。但最优的政策组合并非固定不变,而往往处于动态变化过程中。     

基于政府补贴的企业最优减排技术选择研究

通过构建三阶段博弈模型，得到了清洁工艺治污和末端治污企业的减排研发绩效，并进一步利用数值模拟方法分析了最优补贴政策下，技术溢出率、污染损害程度及排污税对企业治污技术选择的影响。研究表明：无补贴政策下，企业最优的选择为末端治污技术，经济和环境无法取得双赢。最优补贴政策下，当污染损害在一定范围内时，无论技术溢出率取何值，基于利润最大化和政府福利最大化视角，企业的最优技术选择都为清洁工艺治污技术。最优补贴政策下，无论排污税取何值，清洁工艺治污模式下的企业利润都高于末端治污模式下的企业利润；排污税影响不同治污模式下的社会福利水平，当排污税较小时，清洁工艺治污模式下的福利水平大于末端治污模式下的情形，当排污税较大时，末端治污模式下的福利水平大于清洁工艺治污模式下的情形，为保证企业的减排技术选择和政府的选择一致，取得经济和环境无法取得双赢，政府应设置一个合理的排污税水平。     

Policy Against Science: The Case of Environmental Tobacco Smoke

The grounds for official policy claims that environmental tobacco smoke is a major health risk remain speculative. In scientific terms, the evidence is compatible with either a slight increase or a decrease of risks, but is impotent to certify either conclusion. Official advocacy of unproven hypotheses presented as valid scientific conclusions raises serious ethical questions, and threatens the credibility of risk assessment as a legitimate policy instrument.     

认知偏差、债务政策选择偏好和资本结构税收效应

本文针对管理者认知偏差对其债务政策选择的影响问题进行研究,通过建立认知偏差影响下的最优资本结构决策模型,从行为金融学的角度研究了债务政策选择的税收效应,并以中国上市公司2006-2009年的数据为样本,使用多元回归分析等方法对相关结论进行了实证检验。研究表明:上市公司的债务政策受到了认知偏差的影响,即随着财务困境成本的不断增大,上市公司对其变化的敏感性不断降低;认知偏差严重时,上市公司会选择过度保守负债或过度积极负债,导致最优资本结构与税率无关;认知偏差不严重时,上市公司会选择适度负债,且负债水平与税率正相关。结论表明中国上市公司需要更为客观地评价财务困境成本,更为理性地利用负债的税收收益,尽可能避免认知偏差对企业价值的损害。     

结构性减税下小微企业税率调整分析模型

本文针对结构性减税政策在支撑实体经济、调整产业结构方面边际效果日趋减弱,且对小微企业减税领域研究的匮乏和非系统性的特点,建立了一个结构性减税下小微企业税率调整分析模型。通过对企业员工、小微企业和政府三层次目标的讨论,逐步得出各关键指标的表达式,建立了政府目标同小微企业税率的关系模型,在此基础上推导出九个相关命题。研究发现：税率调整在本质上是国民对福利和就业两种需求的偏好替换;并不存在最优的小微企业税率,只存在最差的小微企业税率。目前我国设定的小微企业税率低于最差税率,属于左侧税率;税率优劣取决于其与最差税率的偏离程度,而不是绝对值。研究结果还表明：在不改变既有左侧税率的前提下,政府也可以通过加大对职业培训和社会医保等领域的投入,实现结构性减税所要达到的效果。模型的建立和相关命题的引入,丰富了结构性减税政策的理论体系,对小微企业的税率调整有一定的实践意义。     

Adaptive Governance,Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change,Drought, and Flood

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi‐structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to “risk” that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.     

基于多区域CGE模型的长江经济带一体化政策效果分析

长江经济带是中国最具潜力的经济地带。如何充分发挥长江黄金水道作用,促进产业分工协作和有序转移,促进长江经济带一体化发展,已成为推动长江经济带高质量发展的重要课题。为此,政府制定怎样的政策以及政策效果如何,将对长江经济带一体化发展至关重要。本文构建了中国长江经济带的多区域CGE模型,并用其定量模拟研究了降低运输成本、促进产业转移以及复合政策等不同促进长江经济带一体化发展政策对长江经济带内部各区域经济和一体化发展的影响效果。研究表明降低运输成本和促进产业转移的复合政策,有助于促进产业转移并减轻对欠发达地区的负面冲击,有利于长江经济带的一体化发展及收入差距缩小,是较好的政策选择。促进长江经济带一体化发展,需要在加强交通基础建设的同时推进产业空间重构,可采取空间差异化的税收政策,鼓励产业转移,发展中西部地区的产业链和产业集群,同时管控好产业转移的环境风险。     

碳税政策下闭环供应链网络均衡分析

针对由多个制造/再制造工厂和多个需求市场构成的闭环供应链网络,考虑两种碳税政策：单一比例碳税政策和超额累进碳税政策,分别量化两种碳税政策下工厂需支付的碳税,分析两种碳税政策下闭环供应链网络各成员企业的均衡条件,建立闭环供应链网络均衡模型,提出修正投影算法求解模型,最后,通过算例,对比分析两种碳税政策对闭环供应链网络成员企业新产品产量、网络间正向/逆向产品交易量、需求、价格、减排投资、碳排放量、碳税及成员利润的影响。     

Citizen Advisory Committees and Environmental Policy: What We Know, What's Left to Discover

Citizen Advisory Committees (CACs) are being used in increasing numbers to provide public input into environmental policy and management decisions. While there is a large body of literature consisting of guidelines for establishing and running CACs, the body of literature of empirical evaluations of CACs is markedly smaller. Fourteen empirical studies of CACs involved in environmental policy decisions (spanning the period from 1976 to 1994) are reviewed here, including case studies, large-scale surveys, and consultant reports. For each study consideration is given to the methods of study, the issues considered by the CACs, the organizations advised, the definitions of success used in the study, and the suggested factors contributing to the success, or lack of success, experienced by the CACs. The review shows that the influence of CACs on policy outcomes have varied from case to case, with some accomplishing little and others having significant policy impacts. The increased use of CACs by government and industry presents an excellent opportunity for academics and practitioners to strengthen their understanding of the internal processes and capabilities of CACs through comparative evaluation research.     

二次博弈下供应链的均衡订货批量分析

首先提出了二次博弈下供应商与零售商的四种博弈方式:静态-静态博弈、静态-动态博弈、动态-静态博弈和动态-动态博弈;并且分别对四种博弈方式下的均衡做了详细的分析和求解,同时通过一个实例求得了该博弈下的一个混合战略纳什均衡,对比一次博弈得到结论:在正常情况下,二次博弈较一次博弈而言,无论供应商、零售商还是整个供应链的成本都高。     

“扩大生产者责任”制的一般均衡分析

扩大生产者责任制是当前发达国家或地区正在实行的一项废弃物管理政策,其研究在我国亦引起了愈来愈多的关注。文章针对我国废弃物管理中最突出的家电废弃物问题构建了一般均衡模型,分别探讨了外部性存在时的最优家电废弃物管理政策和外部性不存在时的最优家电废弃物管理政策。研究结果表明:外部性存在时,庇古税是家电废弃物管理的最优政策;外部性不存在时,可在我国将要实行的收购回收方式的基础上推行扩大生产者责任制。     

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy‐level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others.     

中国经济政策不确定性的跨国动态溢出效应

中国作为世界第二、亚洲最大的经济体，在国际事务中发挥的作用日益突出，其经济政策波动对其他国家的影响也日益显著。本文基于1997年1月至2017年5月经济政策不确定性（Economic Policy Uncertainty，EPU）指数，运用DCC-GARCH模型分析了中国与美国、日本和英国的经济政策不确定性的动态溢出效应。研究表明，样本国家的EPU指数波动率呈现尖峰、厚尾、非对称的特征，因而更适用非对称多元t分布DCC-GARCH模型；中国经济政策不确定性对美国、日本和英国均有一定程度的正向溢出效应，但影响程度不一。进一步分析表明，中美间EPU指数的动态相关性高于中英和中日，中美和中英间的EPU指数动态相关系数走势较为相似，且趋向稳定；受地缘政治关系的影响，中日间的EPU指数动态相关系数走势明显异于中美和中英。     

碳税政策下随机双渠道库存与协调研究

构建碳税政策下由单个制造商和单个零售商组成的双渠道供应链模型,在考虑渠道之间缺货转换的基础上,研究批发价格合约和双向收入共享契约下渠道间双渠道库存竞争问题,并设计了由双向收入共享合约和转移支付机制组成的组合合约机制使制造商和零售商实现共赢,以此保证合约的有效执行。研究表明：批发价合约和双向收入共享合约下,制造商分别通过调控批发价格和收入分享比例来调控双渠道的库存水平,其中网络渠道最优库存水平随着零售渠道单位碳排放量增加而增加,零售商的库存水平随着其单位碳排放量增加而减少。进一步分析了渠道间单位产品碳排放差异对批发价格,以及传统零售渠道和网络渠道库存水平的影响如何受到缺货转换率和碳税税率的调节。     

Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin

This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.     

碳税政策下制造商竞争的供应链定价策略和社会福利研究

本文在考虑消费者环境意识下，探讨了制造商竞争情形下基于碳税政策的供应链成员定价策略和社会福利问题。研究表明，碳税政策的实施均会使得普通产品和低碳产品的批发价格和零售价格上升，且普通产品的价格变化总是较低碳产品更加明显；实施碳税政策前后，清洁型制造商面临的产品需求和利润变化总是较普通制造商更具有相对优势；制造商竞争有利于碳税政策引导制造商降低单位产品的碳排放量，实现绿色转型；碳税政策下，不论是清洁型制造商还是普通制造商，他们降低自身产品的单位碳排放量对提升自身产品在需求上的优势或减少自身产品在需求上的劣势都是有益的。当制造商之间的竞争性较小时，实施最优的碳税政策可以显著改善社会福利；特别是当消费者环境意识水平较低时，实施最优的碳税政策更为必要。当制造商之间的竞争强度较大时，不论消费者环境意识高低，直观税率值1可以作为一个近似最优的碳税政策，用以改善社会福利。     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.