A study of inadequate consumer demand among Chinese residents --based on data for urban and rural areas in different provinces

本文运用1995—2005年中国除西藏和台湾外30个省、自治区和直辖市城乡面板数据建立随机效应模型对中国城乡居民消费需求的影响因素分别进行计量分析,结果发现：中国居民人均可支配收入与居民人均消费支出高度相关,且在这11年里中国城乡居民消费函数相对稳定。在这个发现的基础上,本文又进一步运用1992—2004年中国的资金流量表（实物交易）数据,解释了1997—1998年以来中国居民消费需求持续低迷的原因之一是在国民收入分配和再分配过程中,政府在总收入和可支配收入中占有的份额越来越大,而居民占有的份额不断下降。     

Income and Power Inequality as Determinants of Environmental and Health Outcomes: Some Findings*

Objective. The article corrects for two main shortcomings in conventional economic analyses of environmental change. First is the overemphasis placed on income growth, and general disregard for other socioeconomic factors. Second is economists' often oversimplified view of the environment, where distinctions between environmental necessities such as potable water and so‐called environmental luxuries are ignored. I test for the effectiveness of power inequality in explaining access to sanitation and safe water as well as their health consequences. Methods. I develop a two‐stage model seeking first to explain changes in the environmental variables and then population health. I employ ordinary least squares regressions on international cross‐sectional data. Results. Some dimensions of power inequality outperform per‐capita income as possible determinants of population health. Neither power inequality nor income is clearly superior at explaining environmental quality. Conclusion. The study casts further doubt on the importance of per‐capita income in explaining environmental and health outcomes.     

Heterogeneous impacts of provincial governance on household welfare in Vietnam

This study investigated the role of provincial governance in the growth of per capita income of Vietnamese households, using a balanced panel data set for the period 2012–2014. Although we found no evidence for the influence of provincial governance when a linear fixed‐effect regression estimator was used, the results from a fixed‐effect quantile regression estimator revealed that provincial governance has a positive effect on all groups (but not the poorest) and that the effect tends to be greater for better‐off households. In addition, we found that wage employment plays a larger role in the income growth of poorer households, whereas returns on education are greater for richer households. The findings suggest that a mean regression approach that looks only a t the role of explanatory variables on mean household welfare, and does not consider differences in the distribution of household welfare, may miss some heterogeneity that is of interest to policymakers. Key Practitioner Message: ? Using a quantile regression approach has allowed the current study to provide new insight into the role of household‐related factors in household welfare. ? Finding shows that good governance tends to provide greater benefits to richer households than to other groups in the population.     

Agenda Setting and State Policy Diffusion: The Effects of Media Attention,State Court Decisions,and Policy Learning on Fetal Killing Policy*

Objectives. This study combines theories on agenda setting, policy innovation, and policy learning to develop an improved model of state policy change. The case of fetal killing policy change in the states is used to develop a model that incorporates national media attention and the decisions of state courts, in addition to policy learning variables that account for the policy changes of neighboring states and the passage of time. Methods. I test the effect of national media attention, decisions by the courts, and the actions of neighboring states on the likelihood that states will change their fetal homicide policies. Using time‐series cross‐sectional data from 1970 to 2002, the model is tested using logistic regression analysis. In addition to testing the theories mentioned above, control variables in the model include citizen and government ideology and the percentage of state residents who are fundamentalist Protestants. Results. Three of the four research hypotheses are supported by the statistical analysis. The results demonstrate that increased media attention to fetal homicide in a given year increases the likelihood that a state will change its policy the next year. Support is also found for the hypothesis that state court decisions will affect policy change. One of the control variables, government liberalism, is also found to decrease the likelihood that states will change their fetal homicide policies. Conclusions. This study lends insight into why states change their policies by including agenda‐setting variables such as media attention and decisions made by the courts. States do react to the actions of the courts by making changes to policies affected by the decisions.     

Social Representations Theory and young Africans' creative narratives about human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome, 1997–2014

Research on social representations (SRs) has often focused more on categorical than narrative‐based representations. However, narratives are considered to play a key role in the organization of SRs. This article describes an empirical study of some 2000 creative narratives about human immunodeficiency virus written by young Africans from five countries between 1997 and 2014 and examines the theoretical, methodological and applied relevance of Social Representations Theory (SRT) for this study and the implications of the study for the intersection between narrative and SRT. The study is unusual within the SR paradigm: it is temporal and cross‐national; addresses a subject whose science has evolved over time; and uses creative narratives as its data source. A narrative perspective foregrounds holistic understandings of SRs as systems of thought. Creative narratives fit well within an SR framework. Our triangulating methodologies foreground categorical or narrative dimensions depending on the objectives of specific sub‐studies. Central Core Theory provides a framework to articulate stability and change within narrative representations. In creative narrative, objectification also happens at the level of plot and characters, such that dominant cultural narratives can be viewed as a form of hegemonic SR. We link with health communication and embrace more critical streams within SR research.     

Indian agricultural policy: An applied general equilibrium model

A ten-sector, sequential applied general equilibrium model is formulated, estimated, and stimulated for analyzing agricultural policy choices for India until year 2000. Ten groups of consumers (five of them rural), each with its own preferences and claims on output are recognized in the model, the groups distinguished by the range of their per capita household (real) consumption expenditure. The simulations compare: four policies with respect to the compulsory purchase and subsidized distribution to consumers of a limited amount of foodgrains and four foreign trade and aid scenarios. Procuring and freely distributing 100 kgs of grain per capita per year and financing the cost through additional taxation improves income distribution with no reduction in growth. On the other hand, the same distributional policy financed by reducing investment has a negative impact on growth.     

Training and the Earnings of Immigrant Males: Evidence from the Canadian Workplace and Employee Survey*

Objective. To improve on the existing research on earnings differentials between visible minority immigrants and the native‐born, and on the role of discrimination in producing that difference. To do this we introduce into the analysis: (1) access to training and (2) training effects on earnings growth. Method. Using a panel data set containing information on training we test cross‐sectional models of access to training, cross‐sectional models of wage determination, and panel models of wage growth. Results. Visible minority immigrants are disadvantaged in both access to training and earnings; education reduces the disadvantage; and they do better than the other two groups in wage growth. Conclusions. Some results are consistent with a discrimination interpretation but, considered together, the complete sets of results are difficult to reconcile with any relatively straightforward discrimination account.     

Societal shifts and changed patterns of poverty

Fritzell J, Ritakallio VM. Societal shifts and changed patterns of poverty Int J Soc Welfare 2010: ??: ??–??© 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This article uses data from the Luxembourg Income Study to analyse cross‐national and cross‐temporal poverty risks in 11 Western countries. We show that poverty risks have tended to increase from the early 1980s to 2000. In line with what we would expect based on the welfare state literature, the Nordic countries tend to have the lowest poverty rates. However, the proportion of the national population with a market income below the poverty threshold has increased in all countries and the cross‐national variation in market income poverty is not apparently related to the type of welfare state regime. We perform a simulation analysis to test whether structural factors, that is, compositional differences in age, family and labour market behaviour, could account for the cross‐national variation found. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of household labour market attachment for alleviating poverty risks, as well as for explaining the cross‐national variation in these risks.     

Exploring the Bidirectionality of Emotion Understanding and Classroom Behavior with Spanish‐ and English‐speaking Preschoolers Attending Head Start

The present study investigated time‐dependent relationships between emotion understanding and the behavioral adjustment of preschoolers over a single school year using a latent variable structural equation modeling framework. Teacher reports of child behavior (hyperactivity, emotion symptoms, conduct problems, peer problems, and prosocial behavior) and performance assessments of emotion understanding were obtained twice at a 6‐month interval for a sample of 281 preschoolers (159 boys and 122 girls, with mean age = 52.40 months) from English‐ (N = 158) and Spanish‐speaking (N = 123) backgrounds. Emotion understanding and behavior were stable over time, and cross‐sectional associations between them were in expected directions. Cross‐lagged paths revealed that the behavior variables significantly associated with emotion understanding across time were hyperactivity, emotion symptoms, and peer problems, and that behavior variables were generally better predictors of emotion understanding than vice versa. Differences across gender and language groups suggest a stronger and more complex bidirectional relationship between emotion understanding and behavior for girls and for Spanish‐speaking children compared wth boys and English‐speaking children. Results are discussed with respect to the value of exploring cross‐lagged relationships and the potential importance of gender and culture as determinants of those relationships.     

Is the association between social capital and health robust across Nordic regions? Evidence from a cross‐sectional study of older adults

Nyqvist F, Nygård M. Is the association between social capital and health robust across Nordic regions? Evidence from a cross‐sectional study of older adults The study examined the association between structural and cognitive social capital and self‐rated health among 65‐ and 75‐year‐olds in Västerbotten in Sweden and Österbotten and Pohjanmaa in Finland. Data were retrieved from a cross‐sectional postal questionnaire survey conducted in 2005 and was answered by 3,370 persons, yielding a total response rate of 69 per cent. The association between self‐rated health and interpersonal trust and membership in organisations was tested by logistic regression analysis. The results showed that older adults in Västerbotten in Sweden experienced better self‐rated health than in Finland. Furthermore, interpersonal trust and active membership in organisations were associated with self‐rated health among 65‐ and 75‐year olds even after having controlled for the influence of region. We therefore conclude that the association between social capital and self‐rated health tends to be robust across contextually similar regions, but that further analyses are warranted in order to clarify the nature of this relationship. Key Practitioner Message: ?Health status can be indirectly strengthened through investments in social capital, such as group participation and active networks; ?When working with older adults, more focus needs to be put on how to develop trustful relationships; ?The Nordic welfare state, with its universal and subsidised social and health care services, has an indirect and positive effect on health among older adults.     

Testing the affluence hypothesis: A cross-cultural analysis of the determinants of environmental action

This paper tests empirically the “affluence hypothesis” that states that the level of national income per capita influences the level of environmental concern expressed by the population. The hypothesis is tested in cross-sectional analyses of five aggregate variables measuring involvement in environmental protection. These variables are derived from answers to the World Values Survey (third wave). The interdisciplinary literature on the emergence of environmental awareness suggests that, in addition to national income, levels of education, subjective well-being, population density and income inequality may positively impact national preferences regarding environmental protection. The analysis conducted in this paper shows some statistical evidence of a U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and some measures of environmental action. Furthermore, it is found that income inequality, education, population density and subjective well-being play a role in explaining cross-cultural differences in preferences over specific environmental actions. Overall the evidence included in this paper lends qualified support to the “affluence hypothesis.” However, it also indicates that involvement in environmental protection may be stronger in poorer countries than is commonly thought.     

The SESS multisite collaborative research initiative: establishing common ground

Multidisciplinary intervention approaches are needed for meeting service needs for families in which substance abuse and mental health disorders may be interfering with child‐rearing. Experiences from the Starting Early Starting Smart (SESS) initiative, a 12‐site national collaborative investigation of integrating behavioural health services in early childhood and primary health care service settings for children aged 0–5 years and their families and caregivers, are described. This 4‐year applied research initiative was co‐funded by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration of the US Department of Health and Human Services and Casey Family Programs, a private operating foundation. SESS, which was developed and implemented in 12 geographically and culturally diverse cities in the USA during 1997–2001, encouraged federal, state, and local public/private partnerships. Opportunities and challenges in using an inclusive, consensus‐based, stakeholder model to maximize study relevance and utility for researchers, practitioners, and fiscal sponsors are discussed, and lessons for multidisciplinary, multisite research collaborations are identified.     

The Transnational Organization of Production and Environmental Degradation: A Cross‐National Study of the Effects of Foreign Capital Penetration on Water Pollution Intensity, 1980–1995*

Objective. This study attempts to increase our understanding of the environmental impacts of the transnational organization of production in the context of foreign capital penetration. Methods. With a sample of 53 countries, panel analyses using OLS and robust regression are conducted to assess the effects of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector on growth in organic water pollution intensity, 1980–1995. Slope‐dummy interaction variables are used to compare the effects in developed countries and less‐developed countries. The tested models include a variety of relevant controls, such as domestic investment, state environmentalism, size of the manufacturing sector, and level of economic development. Results. Findings for the analyses indicate that foreign direct investment in manufacturing positively affects growth in organic water pollution intensity in less‐developed countries, while the effect in developed countries is nonsignificant. Conclusions. This research illustrates the need for social scientists to investigate the environmental impacts of both the transnational organization of production and the overall scale of production in different sectors.     

A note on the determinants of sexually transmitted disease rates

This paper addresses the impact of several factors on rates of sexually transmitted disease (STD) in the United States. Similar to existing studies, which proxy health outcomes by mortality rates or life expectancy, we find that health care spending improves health outcome. That is, using annual data over the 1960–1997 period, rates of syphilis, gonorrhea, and chancroid fall with increases in per capita health care expenditure. Furthermore, per capita income, per pupil education expenditure, as well as a host of socio-demographic variables, also affect STD rates.     

Who governs or how they govern: Testing the impact of democracy,ideology and globalization on the well being of the poor

This paper examines the effects of regime type, government ideology and economic globalization on poverty in low- and middle-income countries around the world. We use panel regression to estimate the effect of these explanatory variables on two different response variables: national poverty gap (104 countries from 1981 to 2005) and child mortality rate (132 countries from 1976 to 2005). We find consistent and significant results for the interactive effect of democracy and government ideology: strong leftist power under a democratic regime is associated with a reduction in both the poverty gap and the child mortality rate. Democracy, on its own, is associated with a lower child mortality rate, but has no effect on the poverty gap. Leftist power under a non-democratic regime is associated with an increase in both poverty measures. Trade reduces both measures of poverty. Foreign direct investment has a weak and positive effect on the poverty gap. From examining factors that influence the welfare of poor people in less developed countries, we conclude that who governs is as important as how they govern.     

Structured Partisan Competition: A Vote Shares Model of Party Alignments and Realignments*

Objective. This study develops and tests an aggregate “vote shares” model of party alignments and realignments, building a theoretical framework around “structured political composition” (Rabinowitz, Gurian, and Macdonald, 1984, p. 6). The vote shares model conceptualizes party alignments as latent class constructs, or factors, and changes in these latent class constructs as party realignments. Methods. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) model with bias corrected bootstrap estimates and standard errors is used where the cases are counties and the variables are aggregate election outcomes. The data come from Kansas from 1900 to 2010. Results. Comparing the findings of the vote‐shares approach to those of Nardulli (2005) and Sundquist (1983) suggests that the vote shares model provides a greater depth of understanding and a more accurate portrait of the timing of realignments and the partisan bias of new alignments in Kansas. The vote shares model also overcomes the major problem of false positives associated with landslide elections, a problem that plagued most previous aggregate voting models. Conclusion. The vote‐shares model of party alignments and realignments provides a viable alternative for analyzing historic and current election returns where the votes are aggregated by a geographically defined government jurisdiction (parish, county, city, or district).     

A land of the ‘fair go’? Intergenerational earnings elasticity in Australia

This paper contributes to the existing literature on income mobility by developing and applying a two‐stage panel regression model and assessing the effects of using different levels of occupational (dis)aggregation and different earnings measures on the magnitude of father–son earnings elasticities in Australia. We find that the overall intergenerational earnings elasticity in Australia between 2001 and 2013 ranges from 0.11 to 0.30. Our preferred estimates lie between 0.24 and 0.28. Elasticity estimates vary depending on the level of occupational (dis)aggregation and earnings measure used: they are highest when two‐digit level occupations and hourly earnings are used, and lowest when four‐digit level occupations and annual earnings are used. We read these findings as indicating that elasticity estimates are sensitive to the use of different data and methods, and researchers should be careful when undertaking cross‐study, cross‐temporal or cross‐national comparisons.     

The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?

This paper examines the impact of three fiscal policy shocks on per capita real GDP and income inequality in Australia during the period 1965–2014. A small structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed for an open economy for contemporaneous identification and estimation purposes. Based on the evidence of one cointegrating vector among the variables, a structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is specified for the long run. Direct taxation, indirect taxation receipts and government spending are identified as permanent fiscal policy shocks. The convergent use of two different models (SVAR & SVEC) strengthens the credibility of the results. The results have three key policy implications. First, a reduction in direct taxation receipts increases per capita real GDP without increasing income inequality. Second, a reduction in government expenditure significantly increases income inequality. Third, the adverse effect of indirect taxation receipts on income inequality is greater than the redistributive effect of government expenditure, which questions the widely held fiscal policy strategy of using indirect taxation to finance redistributive expenditure.     

Industrial structure and economic fluctuation—Evidence from China

Industrial structure evolves with economic development. Since the reform and opening up of the economy in 1978, China has undergone rapid economic growth and dramatic industrial restructuring, with the proportion of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry changed respectively from 28%, 48% and 24% of GDP in 1978 to 11%, 49% and 40% in 2008. Using panel data from 31 provinces in the past three decades, this paper empirically examined the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. Based on results from unit root test, cointegration test, and Granger causality test, this paper concluded that the two variables are order-1 integrated, short-run economic fluctuation causes industrial structure disproportion, while a long-run bidirectional causal relationship exists between industry structure disproportion and economic aggregate fluctuation. This paper also investigated the determinants of China's industrial structure and found that influential factors include per capita GDP, domestic consumption propensity, urban–rural disparity, scale of the labor force and capital stock, property right protection, and administrative effectiveness.     

Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies

This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting (IT) on output growth over the “globalization years” of 1986-2004. Employing static panel data methods that control for traditional growth determinants, trade openness and financial globalization, the paper finds that the adoption of a fully fledged IT regime results in higher output income per capita for industrial and emerging economies. However, under dynamic model specifications, the estimated long-run output impact of inflation targeting for emerging market economies is found to be lower than in the case of static models. We argue that this might be due to the long lags until the full effects of greater credibility are felt in the real economy and the fact that emerging market economies adopted the regime much later than industrial economies.