Social Influences and Aggregated Immigration Dynamics: The Case of Spain 1999–2009

This research aims at broadening the applicability and scope of network‐based explanations of international migration to include explanations of aggregated immigration dynamics for multiple immigrant collectives. Using a unique dataset that contains data on approximately 4.5 million international immigration events from 180 different origin countries in Spain between 1999 and 2009, my analysis shows conclusively that information about changes in the supply of immigrant social capital between past and potential immigrants explains the variation in local immigration rates in the destination society. It also show that incorporating information about such social network influences is very informative when the goal is to explain (1) temporal variation in intra‐collective international immigration flows across different locations in the destination, (2) temporal variation in inter‐collective international immigration flows within a specific location in the destination, (3) intra‐collective differences in international immigration across locations in the destination, and finally (4) inter‐collective differences in local international immigration within the same geographical location in the destination.     

Conflicting and Reinforcing Identities in Expanding Europe: Individual‐ and Country‐Level Factors Shaping National and European Identities, 1995–20031

This study examines how, within the context of the expansion of the European Union, various multi‐level factors circumscribe individuals’ national and European identity. Focusing on the differential impact of new opportunities that Europeanization offers to people with different backgrounds, we propose hypotheses regarding the effects of individuals’ geopolitical, ethnic, class, and national historical backgrounds on their national and European identity. Drawing on theories on sociopolitical identities, we hypothesize that minorities are more likely to identify with the European Union, but are less likely to identify with their nation and that more local lower‐level geopolitical attachments can enhance broader higher‐level ones. We also combine these individual‐level arguments with macro‐level theories and examine the impact of country‐level factors such as having a communist past, the duration of EU participation, and the levels of economic development and international integration. We test these hypotheses using ISSP survey data from 15 European countries for the years 1995 and 2003. Overall, the results support our predictions about minorities’ identification patterns and about the reinforcing relationships between local and macro identities in general. Our macro‐level analyses indicate different effects in postcommunist nations than in Western‐democratic states, indicating widespread disillusionment with the European Union in postcommunist countries.     

Managers in the Global Economy: A Multilevel Analysis

We examine individual‐ and country‐level determinants of managerial employment, using data from the 1989 to 2009 waves of the World Values and European Values Surveys (n = 89,336 employed adults in 59 countries). Reflecting the rise of the transnational capitalist class, we find that factors related to globalization and international political institutions are most strongly associated with opportunities to join the managerial class relative to factors related to the business‐cycle or development. Additionally, in a subset of countries with detailed occupational information, we find that global trade has a particularly strong, positive association with the odds of being a corporate manager in a large firm.     

Migration,International Telecommunications,and Human Rights1

World polity embeddedness has traditionally been measured by state and civil participation in formal venues, including international organizations, multilateral agreements, and world conferences. In this study, we highlight an alternative form of embeddedness found in cross‐national social relations and apply this framework to the human rights sector of the world polity. Specifically, we propose that the international migrant community diffuses human rights values and practices via (1) local performance and (2) cross‐national communication. Using data from the World Values Survey, we first show that immigrants are more likely to embrace, and actively participate in, the human rights movement. Next, using network data that report country‐to‐country bilateral flows, we observe a high degree of correspondence between international migration and telecommunications, confirming previous studies that trace telephone traffic to the flow of people. Finally, analyzing a balanced data set of 333 observations across 111 countries spanning the 1975–2000 period, we use ordered probit regression to assess the local and cross‐national effects of migrants on a state’s human rights record. We find that a country’s immigration level and its in‐degree centrality in international telecommunications both positively affect its Amnesty International rating, and that these effects are robust to a number of alternative specifications.     

A hegemon fighting for equal rights: the dominant role of COC Nederland in the LGBT transnational advocacy network

Networks are alternatives to hierarchical organizational forms. However, actors in networks have different resources at their disposal, and more powerful participants will try to influence the network as a whole. We identify a dominant node in the European LGBT advocacy network, and explore whether a hegemonic actor in the transnational advocacy network will affect less powerful groups' issue framing. Our project uses software that locates the issue network on the internet, highlighting how transnational advocacy work and digital communication have become inextricably connected. We confirm that Cultuur – en Ontspannings Centrum, known as COC Netherland has higher‐than average centrality measures in the LGBT network. Noting the limitations of hyperlink analysis, we conduct a content analysis of select nodes illustrating the impact of a hegemon. We focus on marriage equality and find tentative support for our hypothesis: organizations with links to COC advocate for stronger forms of legalized same‐sex union than do organizations without ties.     

Linking Migration Intentions with Flows: Evidence and Potential Use

In the absence of reliable, internationally available migration flow data necessary for statistical forecasting, policymakers increasingly turn to survey data on emigration intentions to evaluate future migration trends. The important assumption – i.e. that there is a measurable and systematic relationship between the intention to migrate and actual migration – has not been firmly established at the international level. We examine the association between estimated population averages of emigration intentions and official migration flow data based on data for more than 160 countries. The results show a strong association between emigration intentions and recorded bilateral flows to industrialized countries, as well as between intentions and aggregated out‐migration. The results provide policymakers with a reliability assessment of survey data on emigration intentions and encourage future attempts to incorporate survey data in formal statistical migration forecasting models.     

Heating up the debate? Measuring fragmentation and polarisation in a German climate change hyperlink network

Research into polarisation on the internet has so far primarily focused on contentious issues and yielded contradictory results. Shifting the focus to a non-contentious setting, this article combines community detection with brokerage analysis and exponential random graph models to assess the degree of polarisation at different levels of a German hyperlink network on climate change. Although homophily accounts for a moderate degree of polarisation at the top level of the network, the communities reveal that other factors prove more decisive in shaping its structure and the article thus contributes to a more refined understanding of the nature of online polarisation.     

The UN Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration: Its Impact on Asia

This article focuses on the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM), a landmark international document that builds on the momentum of a decade of initiatives at the international level on migration governance, and its impact on Asia from the perspective of South Asia, Southeast Asia, China, and South Korea. While none of these countries voted against the adoption of the GCM, there are significant differences in how individual countries approached the commitments made in the GCM. These perspectives were articulated in a webinar hosted by Metropolis Asia on 20 June 2018 and in governmental statements made at the UN international conference when the GCM was adopted. This article also discusses the challenges confronting the implementation of the GCM. While the Compact resulted from inclusive and intensive negotiations and many compromises, the road towards realizing its goals will be at least as challenging as the road that led to its adoption. In spite of these challenges, the GCM is a ground‐breaking representation of the first multilateral framework for migration governance. Its success rests upon the recognition that addressing the challenges and maximizing the benefits of migration require true international cooperation, renewed commitment and meaningful action on the commitments agreed to.     

Food Self‐provisioning in Europe: An Exploration of Sociodemographic Factors in Five Regions

This article presents the results of an international comparative study on food self‐provisioning, an activity still widespread in the countries of the Global North. We collected the data in a sociological survey done in 2010 as a part of the household energy use research project GILDED. We selected a region with urban and rural areas as a case study in each of the five EU countries, including Scotland, the Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Our article raises two main research questions: (1) What is the level of food self‐provisioning in the regions? (2) Who participates in it? Additionally, we inquired into the motivations of self‐provisioners using the results of analyses of sociodemographic and food consumption habits for their interpretation. We found that the level of self‐provisioning varies considerably among the regions. Its share ranges from 13 percent in Dutch urban areas to 58 percent in German rural areas. The effects of some sociodemographic and geographic factors differ significantly among the countries. However, we can summarize that living in one's own property, living in a house or in a rural area, having a partner or children, being retired, or having a low income increases the probability of food self‐provisioning.     

Recession and Migration: A New Era for Labor Migration?

The current recession, the worst in a half century, is likely to affect international migration differently than past recessions. In 1973–1974 and 1981–1982, rising oil prices led to recessions in oil‐importing countries and economic booms in oil‐exporting countries, enabling some migrants to shift from bust to boom areas, as from Europe to the Middle East. The 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis did not spread globally, and was followed by a relatively quick resumption of economic and job growth that attracted migrant workers. The 2008–2009 recession is most severe in countries that had the most severe debt excesses, including the U.S., Spain, and Eastern Europe, and in countries most dependent on trade, including many Asian countries. New deployments of migrants are likely to slow, but what is not yet clear is how many migrants who lose jobs will remain abroad.     

Public Support for International Human Rights Institutions: A Cross‐National and Multilevel Analysis

The expansion of international human rights institutions has drawn much attention. Bringing together theories from sociology, political science, and international law, this article examines what factors promote public support for international human rights institutions, using the recent wave of the World Values Survey data (2005–2008). The level of public support displays both cross‐national and cross‐individual variations, so I conceptualize it as a two‐level process and employ the multilevel modeling. At the individual level, it is found that men, younger people, and individuals with more education and income show a higher level of support. At the country level, national affluence, political change (de‐democratization), and linkage to the world society are associated with more support. I further integrate individual‐level characteristics and country‐level social contexts, and pay special attention to education. Education is the institutional link between macro‐level social influences and micro‐level individual attitudes. I find that the support‐promoting effect of education is contingent on social contexts. It is more salient in wealthy countries and countries with strong ties to the world society.     

Income Inequality,Globalization, and the Welfare State: Evidence from 23 Industrial Countries, 1990–2009

The debate regarding the welfare state–weakening effect and the income inequality‐increasing effect of globalization remains a contentious issue among stratification scholars. For some, globalization increases income inequality, while for others, globalization has no, or a negligible, effect on income inequality. This study brings new evidence to bear on this debate by separately investigating effects of multiple indicators of globalization (international trade, foreign direct investment [FDI] and immigration), and of welfare state generosity (government social‐protection spending) on (1) income inequality before taxes and transfers and (2) income inequality after taxes and transfers, using data from 23 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries over 1990–2009. First, results show a positive effect of international trade, a negative effect of immigration, but no effect of FDI and government social‐protection spending on income inequality before taxes and transfers. Second, results show no effect of the globalization indicators but a negative effect of government social‐protection spending on income inequality after taxes and transfers. These findings suggest that (1) globalization has inequality‐increasing effects depending on measures of income inequality; (2) the welfare state, in many OECD countries, continues to shape income distribution; and (3) in contrast with the popular narrative, immigration may decrease income inequality.     

Predictions of Migration from the New Member States after Their Accession into the European Union: Successes and Failures1

This article evaluates predictions of the level of migration from Central and Eastern European countries which joined the European Union in 2004. It does so by comparing observed levels of migration from the new Member States with predictions based on a 2002 Eurobarometer survey. This comparison demonstrates that the failures of previous approaches were due mainly to underestimating the complex relationship between regional and international migration. In contrast to the situation in EU 15, the propensity to migrate regionally within the accession states does not imply a greater potential for international migration. This article shows that GDP was a strong predictor of migration from the new Member States during the 2004 to 2006 period. Equally important, the research presented demonstrates that well‐chosen survey variables have the potential to provide accurate measurements of migration intentions.     

HIERARCHICAL TRADE

Commodity trading is typically organized hierarchically: Large‐scale trade takes place at the global price system while individuals trade at local price systems within their countries. Agencies or trading houses establish the link between these different market places. In this paper, we devise a framework to study this type of hierarchical trade. We identify the free trade and the autarky equilibrium as polar cases. We show that no other two‐stage market equilibria exist if the commodity space is two‐dimensional. An example demonstrates that other, so‐called intermediate equilibria exist for three‐dimensional commodity spaces. We then provide an explicit construction of special classes of intermediate equilibria. Moreover, we study the consequences when some countries control the agency that organizes trade at the global level and we analyze the role of international goods arbitrage. Finally, we show that profit‐maximizing agencies may not promote free trade outcomes. (JEL D43, D50, F10)     

High‐Stakes Accountability in Social and Political Context: Skill Gains and Losses in the No Child Left Behind Era

Under the high‐stakes accountability regime, narrower curricula and/or teaching to narrower tests can restrict the range of skills students acquire. We develop a theory of skill range restriction at the state level. The analysis focuses on math and reading skills in fourth and eighth grade between 2003 and 2009. At both grade levels, the average student’s range of math and reading skills expanded, but there was considerable between‐state variation. In fourth grade, math and reading skills were affected in different ways by percentages of African American and Hispanic students in the state, average class size, and political conservatism. In eighth grade, math and reading skills were restricted, respectively, by lower per‐pupil revenue and lower average adult income. Skill range restriction was associated with greater proficiency gains, since students needed to demonstrate proficiency in fewer skills. An exception was in fourth‐grade reading, for which we observed the opposite pattern.     

Ideological Orientation and the PRC Academic Migration: A Theoretical and Longitudinal Analysis*

Since the end of the Cold War era, Western capitalist countries have experienced increased immigration of highly trained professionals from former socialist Eastern European countries and from socialist countries such as China and Cuba. In studies of the determinants of international migration, the focus has repeatedly been on demographic, economic, social network, and political explanations. This study addresses the migration of highly trained professionals from the People's Republic of China (PRC) to the United States of America (USA). Logistic regression analyses of longitudinal data collected between mid‐1988 and the beginning of 1992 show that, in addition to the explanatory power of the above predictors, transvaluation—the shift emphases from the socialist collectivist and interdependent ideological orientations to individualistic, independent, and competitive ideological orientations contribute to the migration decisions of the Chinese intellectuals. The results of field interviews and longitudinal comparisons suggest that the academics who come from an oppressed bourgeois‐class origin, and who experience more independent and competitive lifestyles in China, are more likely to acquire individualistic and independent ideologies than those who come from privileged and working‐class origins in China. The transvaluation is thus argued as a determinant of international migration, rather than as the post facto justification or the assimilation effect that was argued in previous migration studies. The modest erosion of the socialist‐collectivist and interdependent orientations among Chinese academics in the 1988 to 1992 three‐and‐half‐year time frame further enhanced their migration decisions. The longitudinal analyses suggest that the modifications of the individual ideological orientations among the Chinese academics may have occurred before the migration movement, rather than after. This finding thus challenges previous research regarding the determinants of international migration.     

ATTRIBUTION ERROR IN ECONOMIC VOTING: EVIDENCE FROM TRADE SHOCKS

This article exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990 to 2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust the incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home‐grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters—all conditions that have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems—do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth. (JEL E3, E6)     

FINANCIAL CONTAGION ON THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE NETWORK

We combine data on international trade linkages with a network approach to map the global trading system as an interdependent complex network. This enables us to obtain indicators of how well connected a country is into the global trading system. We use these network‐based measures of connectedness to explain stock market returns during recent episodes of financial crisis. We find that a crisis is amplified if the epicenter country is better integrated into the trade network. However, target countries affected by such a shock are in turn better able to dissipate the impact if they are well integrated into the network. A network approach can help explain why the Mexican, Asian, and Russian financial crises were highly contagious, while the crises that originated in Venezuela and Argentina did not have such a virulent effect. We suggest that a network approach incorporating the cascading and diffusion of interdependent ripples when a shock hits a specific part of the global trade network provides us with an improved explanation of financial contagion. (JEL F10, F36, F40, G15)     

Exploratory social-spatial network analysis of global migration structure

At the global level, international migration can be considered as a network of migration exchanges between different countries. Employing an exploratory network analysis of the international migration structure, the present paper examines the structural characteristics of this network and the status of the countries. The analysis is done using the socio-spatial approach. Results show that as the severity of network ties grow, the number of ties reduce significantly and ties are asymmetric. Most of the migrations in the international migration structure have also taken place outside the near and neighboring countries. The network analysis showed two migration patterns of "International Migratory Highways" and "Migratory Clusters". In the first migration pattern, migrations are largely asymmetric and towards the major centers of immigration, while in the second one, migrations are mostly symmetric and within specific geographical areas.     

When Will the Russians Come? On Post‐Soviet Immigration and Integration in Sweden

The focus of this paper is one of the paradoxes of international migration: the unexpectedly low level of migration between neighbouring countries with large macro‐economic differentials; in this case migration from the former Soviet republics to Sweden. In line with Faist (2000) , one assumption in the study is that the dynamics of international migration are strongly influenced by the emergence of a transnational social space. Based on a database (ASTRID) containing individual information about all residents in Sweden for the period 1986–2003, the study includes an analysis of migration in relation to the transnational social space ‐‐ its bridging and adaptive functions ‐‐ including labour market integration, family situation, intermarriage, population circulation and the spatial clustering of immigrants. The study reveals an over‐representation of female immigrants and a high frequency of intermarriage among women migrants. Moreover, a changing migrant composition over the past decades was found, including a growing number of students, whereas the empirical analyses indicate a rather weak labour market position among immigrants from former Soviet republics. However, the position of recently arrived migrants has been enhanced over time, and migrants who stay for longer periods attain a stronger position on the labour market. The analyses also show an increasing number of highly educated persons among immigrants from the former Soviet republics. Furthermore, migrants from the former Soviet republics who move to Sweden tend to remain rather than return. In addition, the empirical analysis shows only minor tendencies of spatial clustering among the migrants. In sum, the study indicates that the lack of a more developed transnational social space may explain the rather low level of migration but also that the changing mobility patterns could represent an initial phase of a denser transnational social space that may trigger higher migration rates between the former Soviet republics and Sweden in the near future.