The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates

Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance traveled, so that longer driving should result in higher premiums, but there should be a discount for drivers who accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety.     

A Revised Economic Analysis of Restrictions on the Use of Cell Phones While Driving

Evidence that cell phone use while driving increases the risk of being involved in a motor vehicle crash has led policymakers to consider prohibitions on this practice. However, while restrictions would reduce property loss, injuries, and fatalities, consumers would lose the convenience of using these devices while driving. Quantifying the risks and benefits associated with cell phone use while driving is complicated by substantial uncertainty in the estimates of several important inputs, including the extent to which cell phone use increases a driver's risk of being involved in a crash, the amount of time drivers spend using cell phones (and hence their aggregate contribution to crashes, injuries, and fatalities), and the incremental value to users of being able to make calls while driving. Two prominent studies that have investigated cell phone use while driving have concluded that the practice should not be banned. One finds that the benefits of calls made while driving substantially exceed their costs while the other finds that other interventions could reduce motor vehicle injuries and fatalities (measured in terms of quality adjusted life years) at a lower cost. Another issue is that cell phone use imposes increased (involuntary) risks on other roadway users. This article revises the assumptions used in the two previous analyses to make them consistent and updates them using recent data. The result is a best estimate of zero for the net benefit of cell phone use while driving, a finding that differs substantially from the previous study. Our revised cost-effectiveness estimate for cell phone use while driving moves in the other direction, finding that the cost per quality adjusted life year increases modestly compared to the previous estimate. Both estimates are very uncertain.     

Evacuation Risks: A Tentative Approach for Quantification

This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person–km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 ^-8 deaths per person–km and 32 10^-8 injuries per person–km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10^-8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10^-8 injuries per person–km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations.     

Should Persons with Diabetes Be Licensed to Drive Trucks?—Risk Management

How should a regulatory agency interpret a risk analysis that concludes there is a small increase in risk? The agency must decide on behalf of society whether the increased risk is large enough to justify banning the risky activity or taking some other step to lessen the risks. In a companion paper (Songer et al.), we conclude that licensing insulin using persons to drive commercial motor vehicles in interstate commerce would result in 42 additional crashes each year. Here we address risk management issues by interpreting the number of additional crashes and the relative risks of the prospective handicapped drivers. Are the number of additional crashes (42) significant? Is the increase in the annual crash risk (from 0.00785 to 0.032 for non-insulin dependent and 0.048 for insulin dependent persons) significant? Are the relative risks significant for all insulin using drivers (4.7)? For drivers with a history of severe hypoglycemic reactions (19.8)? How should society tradeoff risk increases for increases in opportunity for these handicapped persons? We review other social decisions concerning highway safety: Accepting the increasing risks of letting 16 year olds drive, allowing extremely light cars, allowing some unsafe highways, and allowing extremely unsafe driving conditions at some times of day. We conclude that the additional risks from insulin using persons are well within the current accepted range of risks. Currently, 70% of states permit insulin using persons to drive trucks within their state. Nonetheless, the social cost, due to fatalities, injuries, and property damage from allowing a person with a history of severe hypoglycemic reactions to drive is more than $19,700 per year.     

Analysis of Travel Times and CO2 Emissions in Time‐Dependent Vehicle Routing

Due to the growing concern over environmental issues, regardless of whether companies are going to voluntarily incorporate green policies in practice, or will be forced to do so in the context of new legislation, change is foreseen in the future of transportation management. Assigning and scheduling vehicles to service a pre‐determined set of clients is a common distribution problem. Accounting for time‐dependent travel times between customers, we present a model that considers travel time, fuel, and CO₂ emissions costs. Specifically, we propose a framework for modeling CO₂ emissions in a time‐dependent vehicle routing context. The model is solved via a tabu search procedure. As the amount of CO₂ emissions is correlated with vehicle speed, our model considers limiting vehicle speed as part of the optimization. The emissions per kilometer as a function of speed are minimized at a unique speed. However, we show that in a time‐dependent environment this speed is sub‐optimal in terms of total emissions. This occurs if vehicles are able to avoid running into congestion periods where they incur high emissions. Clearly, considering this trade‐off in the vehicle routing problem has great practical potential. In the same line, we construct bounds on the total amount of emissions to be saved by making use of the standard VRP solutions. As fuel consumption is correlated with CO₂ emissions, we show that reducing emissions leads to reducing costs. For a number of experimental settings, we show that limiting vehicle speeds is desired from a total cost perspective. This namely stems from the trade‐off between fuel and travel time costs.     

Is It Safer to Fly or Drive?

In attempts to soothe the nascent fear of the scheduled airline traveler, passengers waiting takeoff are sometimes reminded of the cliche that they may have already completed the most dangerous part of their trip — the drive to the airport. The objective of this paper is to communicate under what conditions air travel is indeed safer than highway travel and vice versa. The conventional wisdom among risk communicators that air travel is so much safer than car travel arises from the most widely quoted death rates per billion miles for each — 0.6 for air compared to 24 for road. There are three reasons why such an unqualified comparison of aggregated fatality rates is inappropriate. First, the airline rate is passenger fatalities per passenger mile, whereas the road rate is all fatalities (any occupants, pedestrians, etc.) per vehicle mile. Second, road travel that competes with air travel is on the rural interstate system, not on average roads. Third, driver and vehicle characteristics, and driver behavior, lead to car-driver risks that vary over a wide range. Expressions derived to compare risk for drivers with given characteristics to those on airline trips of given distance showed that 40-year-old, belted, alcohol-free drivers of cars 700 pounds heavier than average are slightly less likely to be killed in 600 miles of rural interstate driving than in airline trips of the same length. Compared to this driver, 18-year-old, unbelted, intoxicated, male drivers of cars 700 pounds lighter than average have a risk over 1000 times greater. Furthermore, it is shown that the cliche above is untrue for a group of drivers having the age distribution of airline passengers.     

Trait Predictors of Aggression and Crash‐Related Behaviors Across Drivers from the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic

Aggressive driving is acknowledged as a contributor to motor vehicle crashes. This study explored a theoretical model of aggressive expression and crash‐related outcomes using self‐report data collected, using an online questionnaire, from drivers in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. The proposed model tested whether the personality traits of boredom proneness, sensation seeking, and impulsivity, coupled with trait driving anger, predicted aggressive driving; and whether aggressive driving predicted crash‐related outcomes (loss of concentration and control, near misses, and moving violations). The structural model was confirmed, with aggressive expressions of anger being found to mediate the relationships driving anger and impulsivity had with the crash‐related outcomes. Multigroup invariance analysis showed that the model remained invariant across drivers from the United Kingdom and Ireland, suggesting that the contributing factors for aggressive expression and crash involvement are similar across both countries. When self‐reported crash‐related conditions were compared between drivers in the United Kingdom and Ireland, drivers in the United Kingdom reported more aggressive driving, more minor crashes, more incidents of road rage, and more frequent losses of concentration and vehicle control.     

Changes in Risk Perceptions Prospectively Predict Changes in Self‐Reported Speeding

Risk perception theories posit that changes in risk perception prompt subsequent changes in risk behavior. Prospective studies using observations made at three time‐points offer the capacity to test this hypothesis by observing sequential changes in both risk perceptions and behavior. A telephone survey was administered by random‐digit dialing to 255 adult Australian drivers at baseline (T1), 6 weeks (T2), and 14 weeks (T3). During weeks 2–5, a risk‐perception‐based anti‐speeding mass media campaign was conducted. The survey assessed risk perception, operationalized as the proportion of time that driving at 70 km/h (43 mph) was perceived to be dangerous, and self‐reported speeding behavior, defined as the frequency of respondents driving 5 km (3 mph) faster than the legal speed limit in built up areas. Higher T2 risk perception predicted lower T3 self‐reports of speeding after controlling T1 risk perception and T1 and T2 self‐reported speeding. This can be interpreted as changes in risk perceptions between T1 and T2 predicting changes in speeding between T2 and T3. Further analyses showed that increases in risk perception predicted lower subsequent self‐reported speeding changes, but decreases in risk perception were unrelated to those changes. Risk perception changes were unrelated to recall of exposure to the media campaign. These findings support a dynamic view of the relationship between risk perception and self‐reported behavior, and that risk perception theories can be applied to speeding.     

Exploring Reductions in London Underground Passenger Journeys Following the July 2005 Bombings

We examine the reduction in London Underground passenger journeys in response to the July 2005 bombings. Using entrance data for London Underground stations between 2001 and 2007, we incorporate demand and supply factors in a multivariate time‐series regression model to estimate changes in passenger journeys between different Underground lines. We find that passenger journeys fell by an average of 8.3% for the 4 months following the attacks. This amounts to an overall reduction of 22.5 million passenger journeys for that period. Passenger journeys returned to predicted levels during September 2005, yet we find evidence of reduced travel until June 2006. Our estimates controlled for other factors, including reduced Underground service provision due to damage from the attacks, economic conditions, and weather, yet substantial reductions in passenger journeys remained. Around 82% of passenger journey reductions following the 2005 attacks cannot be attributed to supply‐side factors or demand‐side factors such as economic conditions, weather, or the summer school‐break alone. We suggest that this reduction may partially be due to an increased perception of the risk of Underground travel after the attacks.     

Car Occupant Life Expectancy: Car Mass and Seat Belt Effects

Average human life expectancies for the U.S. resident population are calculated using tabulated population and survival rate data. These life expectancies are recalculated assuming elimination of various types of motor vehicle fatalities using Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data. The differences between the original and recalculated values provide estimates of life expectancy reductions due to the motor vehicle fatalities. These estimates are combined with prior work relating the likelihood of an occupant fatality to car mass, so that reductions in life expectancy are determined as a function of car mass. The estimates of life expectancy reductions are also used to determine the effect of seat belt use on life expectancy. The estimates, which are based on data for 1978, assume that survival rates remain unchanged. Estimates of the changes in life expectancy associated with switching from a large (1800 kg) car to a small (900 kg) car, and switching from not using to using a seat belt are presented as functions of the age at which an individual makes the switch.     

Major Factors Influencing the Health Impacts from Controlling Air Pollutants with Nonlinear Chemistry: An Application to China

Predicting the human‐health effects of reducing atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from power plants, motor vehicles, and other sources is complex because of nonlinearity in the relevant atmospheric processes. We estimate the health impacts of changes in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone concentrations that result from control of NO_x emissions alone and in conjunction with other pollutants in and outside the mega‐city of Shanghai, China. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is applied to model the effects on atmospheric concentrations of emissions from different economic sectors and geographic locations. Health impacts are quantified by combining concentration‐response functions from the epidemiological literature with pollutant concentration and population distributions. We find that the health benefits per ton of emission reduction are more sensitive to the location (i.e., inside vs. outside of Shanghai) than to the sectors that are controlled. For eastern China, we predict between 1 and 20 fewer premature deaths per year per 1,000 tons of NO_x emission reductions, valued at $300–$6,000 per ton. Health benefits are sensitive to seasonal variation in emission controls. Policies to control NO_x emissions need to consider emission location, season, and simultaneous control of other pollutants to avoid unintended consequences.     

Risk‐Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Transportation Corridors with Interval Uncertainties of Heterogeneous Data

Access management, which systematically limits opportunities for egress and ingress of vehicles to highway lanes, is critical to protect trillions of dollars of current investment in transportation. This article addresses allocating resources for access management with incomplete and partially relevant data on crash rates, travel speeds, and other factors. While access management can be effective to avoid crashes, reduce travel times, and increase route capacities, the literature suggests a need for performance metrics to guide investments in resource allocation across large corridor networks and several time horizons. In this article, we describe a quantitative decision model to support an access management program via risk‐cost‐benefit analysis under data uncertainties from diverse sources of data and expertise. The approach quantifies potential benefits, including safety improvement and travel time savings, and costs of access management through functional relationships of input parameters including crash rates, corridor access point densities, and traffic volumes. Parameter uncertainties, which vary across locales and experts, are addressed via numerical interval analyses. This approach is demonstrated at several geographic scales across 7,000 kilometers of highways in a geographic region and several subregions. The demonstration prioritizes route segments that would benefit from risk management, including (i) additional data or elicitation, (ii) right‐of‐way purchases, (iii) restriction or closing of access points, (iv) new alignments, (v) developer proffers, and (vi) etc. The approach ought to be of wide interest to analysts, planners, policymakers, and stakeholders who rely on heterogeneous data and expertise for risk management.     

The Risks of Licensing Persons with Diabetes to Drive Trucks

The 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act forbids employers to bar disabled persons from jobs unless employers can show the disabled person cannot perform the tasks. The Federal Highway Administration will not license persons with diabetes mellitus to drive commercial motor vehicles in interstate commerce. These individuals may experience severe hypoglycemia, greatly increasing their risk of losing control of the truck. This prohibition is currently being reexamined. We describe the disease process leading to severe hypoglycemia and its physical manifestations. To quantify the risks of licensing persons with diabetes to use insulin, we first estimate the number of potential insulin-using drivers. We estimate that 1420 insulin-using persons would seek licenses in the United States if they were permitted to do so (920 noninuslin dependent and 500 insulin dependent). Next, we estimate the annual incidence of mild and severe hypoglycemia in these populations. The third step is to estimate the number of hypoglycemic episodes while driving. Estimating the likelihood of a crash due to a mild or severe hypoglycemic episode is the fourth step. We estimate that an additional 42 crashes each year would occur if insulin using persons were licensed to drive commercial motor vehicles in interstate commerce (20 from insulin dependent and 22 from non-insulin dependent drivers).     

Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0–5‐log₁₀ reduction in Salmonella ) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400 – 248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5 ‐ to 7‐fold) predicted from a 1‐log₁₀ seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1‐log₁₀ seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3‐log₁₀ or a 5‐log₁₀ seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33 – 448) or 1.4 (95% CI <1 – 4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3‐log₁₀ or 5‐log₁₀ seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10–146) or <1 (95% CI <1 – 1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3‐log₁₀ seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22 – 298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.     

Fault Tree Analysis for Exposure to Refrigerants Used for Automotive Air Conditioning in the United States

A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servicing. The number of refrigerant exposures of service technicians was estimated to be 135,000 per year. Exposures of vehicle occupants can occur when refrigerant enters passenger compartments due to sudden leaks in air-conditioning systems, leaks following servicing, or leaks caused by collisions. The total number of exposures of vehicle occupants was estimated to be 3,600 per year. The largest number of exposures of vehicle occupants was estimated for leaks caused by collisions, and the second largest number of exposures was estimated for leaks following servicing. Estimates used in the fault tree analysis were based on a survey of automotive air-conditioning service shops, the best available data from the literature, and the engineering judgement of the authors and expert reviewers from the Society of Automotive Engineers Interior Climate Control Standards Committee. Exposure concentrations and durations were estimated and compared with toxicity data for refrigerants currently used in automotive air conditioners. Uncertainty was high for the estimated numbers of exposures, exposure concentrations, and exposure durations. Uncertainty could be reduced in the future by conducting more extensive surveys, measurements of refrigerant concentrations, and exposure monitoring. Nevertheless, the analysis indicated that the risk of exposure of service technicians and vehicle occupants is significant, and it is recommended that no refrigerant that is substantially more toxic than currently available substitutes be accepted for use in vehicle air-conditioning systems, absent a means of mitigating exposure.     

Real-World Personal Conversations Using a Hands-Free Embedded Wireless Device While Driving: Effect on Airbag-Deployment Crash Rates

A wireless device embedded in the vehicle allowed the user to engage in a personal hands-free conversation (HFC), and automatically placed an emergency notification call to an OnStar call center if the vehicle was involved in a crash in which its airbag deployed. A database stored the exact counts, start timestamps, and billed durations of all HFC and airbag notification calls. In 30 months of naturalistic driving, there were 91 million HFC calls from an average of 323,994 drivers per month who made calls. There were 14 airbag deployments in 276 million driver-minutes of HFC conversation for an exposed incidence rate of 5.08 airbag crashes per 100 million driver-minutes. There were 2,023 airbag deployments in an estimated 24.7 billion driver-minutes of no HFC conversation for a not-exposed incidence rate of 8.18 airbag crashes per 100 million driver-minutes. The crash incidence rate ratio (IRR) is the ratio of these two rates or 0.62 (95% C.I. 0.37 to 1.05). Sensitivity analyses controlled for the impact on the crash IRR of estimated time spent driving per day and calls by passengers. Counting all crashes as much as 20 minutes later than a call as related to that call gave similar results. We conclude that for personal conversations using a hands-free embedded device the risk of an airbag crash is somewhere in a range from a moderately lower risk to a risk near that of driving without a recent personal conversation. These results are not consistent with the large increase in crash risk reported in epidemiological studies using the case-crossover method.     

Social Optimal Location of Facilities with Fixed Servers,Stochastic Demand,and Congestion

We consider two capacity choice scenarios for the optimal location of facilities with fixed servers, stochastic demand, and congestion. Motivating applications include virtual call centers, consisting of geographically dispersed centers, walk‐in health clinics, motor vehicle inspection stations, automobile emissions testing stations, and internal service systems. The choice of locations for such facilities influences both the travel cost and waiting times of users. In contrast to most previous research, we explicitly embed both customer travel/connection and delay costs in the objective function and solve the location–allocation problem and choose facility capacities simultaneously. The choice of capacity for a facility that is viewed as a queueing system with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times could mean choosing a service rate for the servers (Scenario 1) or choosing the number of servers (Scenario 2). We express the optimal service rate in closed form in Scenario 1 and the (asymptotically) optimal number of servers in closed form in Scenario 2. This allows us to eliminate both the number of servers and the service rates from the optimization problems, leading to tractable mixed‐integer nonlinear programs. Our computational results show that both problems can be solved efficiently using a Lagrangian relaxation optimization procedure.     

A SIMULATION AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC VEHICLE ROUTING WITH TIMING CONSTRAINTS

This paper examines a generalization of the vehicle-dispatch problem in which time constraints as well as stochastic demand and travel times are considered. The objective is to minimize total travel time subject to vehicle load capacities and sequencing restrictions, meaning that certain points may be serviced only in specified time intervals. Intra-city travel times are estimated via multiple regression, and an effective heuristic is tested on single-estimate travel times. A GPSS simulation is used to evaluate the heuristic on stochastic travel times and also to examine the effects of other decision variables such as route configuration. Computational experience with an actual refuse collection problem involving 163 points per day is reported.     

基于无标度网络的绿色出行选择行为研究

随着我国城市化进程的加快,机动车污染已成为我国城市空气污染的一个主要来源,提倡绿色出行的理念有助于缓解机动车尾气带来的空气污染,那么对于有限理性个体在复杂社交网络中的绿色出行行为意愿的研究以及群体行为的演化则成为了本文的研究焦点。本文基于计划行为理论等建立了基于个体行为态度、感知行为控制、主观规范及行为结果感知等影响因素的个体绿色出行行为意愿模型,运用观点传播动力学及无标度网络构建了个体选择行为交互网络模型。实证及仿真分析表明,个体行为态度因素在居民的绿色出行行为意愿中取值很高,作用显著,行为感知因素则影响较为有限,提高行为结果感知因素与主观规范因素的取值是提高居民绿色出行行为意愿的主要途径;在择优连接原则与网络增长假设条件下,整个网络向着几个中心节点聚集的趋势越来越明显,即网络节点中心化的程度越来越显著;在社会网络中,提高行为主体的信息交互阈值取值、增加行为主体绿色出行交通费用的折扣系数、提升民众采取绿色出行方式时的精神满足感、塑造宣传绿色出行的意见领袖将有利于提高居民的绿色出行行为意愿。     

Motor vehicle recalls: Trends,patterns and emerging issues

This paper examines patterns and trends in motor vehicle safety recalls using a dataset based on 23.1 million vehicles registered in the UK between 1992 and 2002. A safety recall occurs when vehicle manufacturers call vehicles that have been sold and are in use back to their dealerships for safety-related remedial work. Safety recalls can be a strategic concern for car makers, having the potential to damage brand value, reduce stock price as well as resulting in significant direct costs. The data from this study show that the incidence of vehicle recalls is increasing—between 1998 and 2002 there was an average of over 120 recall incidents per annum in the UK, compared to less than 50 per annum between 1992 and 1994. Total numbers of vehicles recalled show no clear trend over time, but the absolute level of recalls year on year is very high: in the UK, 10.8 million vehicles were recalled during 1992–2002, representing 47% of all vehicle UK registrations in the period. Moreover, there are substantial differences in recall rates between different car manufacturers, suggesting that recall rates may be a useful indicator of process performance in the automotive design-and-production value chain. European and American producers have recall rates that are nearly three times greater than their East Asian counterparts. This paper concludes with some ideas that may explain these patterns and suggests an agenda for further research.