Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France

Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk‐reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood‐coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision‐making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood‐prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood‐coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood‐coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood‐coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood‐preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood‐coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.     

Perception of Hazards: The Role of Social Trust and Knowledge

Recent research indicates that social trust of those who manage a hazard is strongly correlated to judgments about the hazard's risk and benefits. The present study investigates the more specific question of “For which hazards is this?” It was postulated that when an individual lacks knowledge about a hazard, social trust of authorities managing the hazard determines perceived risks and benefits. On the other hand, when an individual has personal knowledge about a hazard and therefore does not need to rely on managing authorities, social trust is unrelated to judged risks and benefits. Participants (N = 91) assessed risks, benefits, and trust in managing authorities and personal knowledge associated with 25 hazardous technologies and activities. As expected, strong correlations between social trust and judged risks and benefits were observed for hazards about which people did not possess much knowledge. No significant correlations between social trust and judged risks and benefits were found for hazards about which people were knowledgeable. Results suggest that the lay public relies on social trust when making judgments of risks and benefits when personal knowledge about a hazard is lacking. Replicating findings of other studies, the present study also found negative correlations between perceived risks and perceived benefits. When social trust was controlled for, correlations between perceived risks and benefits diminished. Implications of the results for risk management are discussed.     

Americans’ Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues

Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective‐action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans’ behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior‐specific analyses), the behaviors involved, and whether analysis focused on the full sample or only on people who had a reasonable opportunity to enact the behavior or who believed it relevant to their lives. There was a general contrast between mosquito control actions (removal of mosquito breeding areas and pesticide spraying) and travel‐related behaviors (avoiding travel to areas of local transmission of the virus, protecting oneself from mosquito bites after potential exposure, and practicing safe sex after potential exposure). Reported action or inaction during the 2016 mosquito season, and stages of behavior change, were both elicited in January–February 2017; both drove intentions in April 2017 for the upcoming season, although direct and indirect effects varied widely. Collectively these findings present theoretical, measurement, and practical implications for understanding, tracking, and promoting voluntary protective actions against hazards.     

Media exposure,threat processing,and mitigation behaviors in Gulf Coast residents facing the co-occurring threats of COVID-19 and hurricanes

The 2020 hurricane season threatened millions of Americans concurrently grappling with COVID-19. Processes guiding individual-level mitigation for these conceptually distinct threats, one novel and chronic (COVID-19), the other familiar and episodic (hurricanes), are unknown. Theories of health protective behaviors suggest that inputs from external stimuli (e.g., traditional and social media) lead to threat processing, including perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity), guiding mitigation behavior. We surveyed a representative sample of Florida and Texas residents (N = 1846) between April 14, 2020 and April 27, 2020; many had previous hurricane exposure; all were previously assessed between September 8, 2017 and September 11, 2017. Using preregistered analyses, two generalized structural equation models tested direct and indirect effects of media exposure (traditional media, social media) on self-reported (1) COVID-19 mitigation (handwashing, mask-wearing, social distancing) and (2) hurricane mitigation (preparation behaviors), as mediated through perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity). Self-efficacy and response efficacy were associated with social distancing (p = .002), handwashing, mask-wearing, and hurricane preparation (ps < 0.001). Perceived susceptibility was positively associated with social distancing (p = 0.017) and hurricane preparation (p < 0.001). Perceived severity was positively associated with social distancing (p < 0.001). Traditional media exhibited indirect effects on COVID-19 mitigation through increased response efficacy (ps < 0.05), and to a lesser extent self-efficacy (p < 0.05), and on hurricane preparation through increased self-efficacy and response efficacy and perceived susceptibility (ps < 0.05). Social media did not exhibit indirect effects on COVID-19 or hurricane mitigation. Communications targeting efficacy and susceptibility may encourage mitigation behavior; research should explore how social media campaigns can more effectively target threat processing, guiding protective actions.     

Loss/Gain Framing,Dose, and Reactance: A Message Experiment

Whether a loss or gain frame has a persuasive advantage in communicating health risks is a matter of ongoing debate. Findings reported in the literature are mixed, suggesting that framing effects are likely complex and may be influenced by a combination of factors. This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements). Compared to loss frames, gain frames generated more threat to freedom and reactance. Dosage exerted significant influence at the extremes; the one‐dose messages invoked less intentions to exercise compared to the four‐dose messages. Planned contrasts revealed significant frame × dose interactions. Notably, the one‐dose gain‐framed messages triggered significantly more freedom threat and less intentions to engage in physical activity—a situation that changed when the information was loss‐framed or when the dosage was increased.     

突发事件公众准备意愿的影响因素——基于实证数据的分析

突发事件是"低概率、高损失"的极端事件。突发事件风险客观存在,公众的应对准备意愿及行为对减缓突发事件风险及降低突发事件损失有着重要影响。但实际上,公众普遍表现出较弱的准备意愿,很少主动采取准备措施及行为。为了解释公众为避免突发事件损失而事先采取应对准备的行为差异,本文基于实证调查数据,将保护动机理论（PMT）应用于公众准备意愿的预测研究,建立突发事件公众认知与准备意愿理论模型,运用多元回归分析及结构方程模型方法,验证公众风险认知、应对认知与准备意愿之间的路径关系。其中风险认知包括可能性和严重性认知两个变量,应对认知包括应对效能、自我效能和应对成本认知三个变量。实证数据通过问卷调查的方式获取,调查对象涉及湖北省武汉市七大行政区域共405位城区居民。数据分析结果表明,公众的准备意愿受到风险认知及应对认知的共同影响,相比于风险认知,应对认知对准备意愿有更大的解释效力;年龄、教育程度、收入等三类人口统计学特征对准备意愿有一定的解释效力。研究结论显示,为了促使公众形成准备意愿,风险沟通不仅应考虑突发事件风险发生的可能性及后果的严重性,更需要关注应对效能、自我效能以及应对成本等对公众准备意愿有着显著影响的因素。     

Psychological Mediators of the Sport Injury—Perceived Risk Relationship

Drawing upon both heuristic‐ and threat‐based approaches, we sought to examine whether perceived similarity with injury‐prone people and perceived control over injury occurrence would directly contribute to perceived risk and whether these variables would mediate the previous injury–perceived risk relationship. Judokas (n = 207) reported the number of injuries experienced in the past year and then completed measures of perceived similarity, perceived control, and injury risk perception. Analyses revealed that perceived similarity and perceived control directly contributed to perceived risk of injury; only perceived similarity acted as a partial mediator of the injury–perceived risk relationship. These findings are discussed in relation to the potential influence of the sport context, which universally involves the acceptance of a high risk of injury.     

High Risk or Low: How Location on a "Risk Ladder" Affects Perceived Risk

Efforts to explain risk magnitude often rely on a "risk ladder" in which exposure levels and associated risk estimates are arrayed with low levels at the bottom and high ones at the top. Two experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that perceived threat and intended mitigation vary with the location of the subject's assigned level on the risk ladder. Subjects were New Jersey homeowners, asked to assume a particular level of radon or asbestos contamination in their homes, to read a brochure explaining the risk, and then to complete a questionnaire. Both studies found that the difference between an assigned level one-quarter of the way up the ladder and the same level three-quarters of the way up the ladder significantly affected threat perception; the effect on mitigation intentions was significant in only one of the studies. Variations in assigned risk also affected threat perception and mitigation intentions. Variations in test magnitude (e.g., 15 fibers per liter vs. 450 fibers per cubic foot, roughly equivalent risks) had no effect, nor did the distinction between radon and asbestos affect the dependent variables. These findings suggest that communicators can design risk ladders to emphasize particular risk characteristics.     

Secondary Risk Theory: Validation of a Novel Model of Protection Motivation

Protection motivation theory states individuals conduct threat and coping appraisals when deciding how to respond to perceived risks. However, that model does not adequately explain today's risk culture, where engaging in recommended behaviors may create a separate set of real or perceived secondary risks. We argue for and then demonstrate the need for a new model accounting for a secondary threat appraisal, which we call secondary risk theory. In an online experiment, 1,246 participants indicated their intention to take a vaccine after reading about the likelihood and severity of side effects. We manipulated likelihood and severity in a 2 × 2 between‐subjects design and examined how well secondary risk theory predicts vaccination intention compared to protection motivation theory. Protection motivation theory performed better when the likelihood and severity of side effects were both low (R² = 0.30) versus high (R² = 0.15). In contrast, secondary risk theory performed similarly when the likelihood and severity of side effects were both low (R² = 0.42) or high (R² = 0.45). But the latter figure is a large improvement over protection motivation theory, suggesting the usefulness of secondary risk theory when individuals perceive a high secondary threat.     

Social Influence,Risk and Benefit Perceptions,and the Acceptability of Risky Energy Technologies: An Explanatory Model of Nuclear Power Versus Shale Gas

Risky energy technologies are often controversial and debates around them are polarized; in such debates public acceptability is key. Research on public acceptability has emphasized the importance of intrapersonal factors but has largely neglected the influence of interpersonal factors. In an online survey (N = 948) with a representative sample of the United Kingdom, we therefore integrate interpersonal factors (i.e., social influence as measured by social networks) with two risky energy technologies that differ in familiarity (nuclear power vs. shale gas) to examine how these factors explain risk and benefit perceptions and public acceptability. Findings show that benefit perceptions are key in explaining acceptability judgments. However, risk perceptions are more important when people are less familiar with the energy technology. Social network factors affect perceived risks and benefits associated with risky energy technology, hereby indirectly helping to form one's acceptability judgment toward the technology. This effect seems to be present regardless of the perceived familiarity with the energy technology. By integrating interpersonal with intrapersonal factors in an explanatory model, we show how the current “risk–benefit acceptability” model used in risk research can be further developed to advance the current understanding of acceptability formation.     

Enhancing Self‐Protective Behavior: Efficacy Beliefs and Peer Feedback in Risk Communication

In times of a high‐impact safety incident citizens may have a variety of sources available to help them cope with the situation. This research focuses on the interplay of efficacy information in risk communication messages and peer feedback, such as responses on social network sites (SNSs) in the context of a high‐impact risk on the intention to engage in self‐protective behavior. The study pitted high and low efficacy information messages against supporting and opposing peer feedback (N = 242). Results show a significant interaction effect between efficacy information in a news article and peer feedback from SNS messages on both the intention to engage in self‐protective behavior and levels of involvement. Participants who received the article with more efficacy information and also received supportive peer feedback via SNS messages were more likely to express higher levels of involvement and greater intentions to engage in protective behavior. When confronted with a low efficacious news article, the effect of peer feedback on these two variables was significantly stronger. Finally, implications for theory and government risk communication are discussed.     

Values,Perceived Risks and Benefits,and Acceptability of Nuclear Energy

We examined how personal values and perceptions of risks and benefits are associated with the acceptability of nuclear energy (NE). A theoretical model is tested in which beliefs about the risks and benefits of NE mediate the relationship between values and acceptability. The results showed that egoistic values are positively related to the perceived benefits and acceptability of NE. In contrast, altruistic and biospheric values were positively related to the perceived risks of NE. Although it has been argued that NE may help to combat climate change through lower CO₂ emissions, these environmental benefits were not acknowledged by people with strong biospheric values. Furthermore, results confirmed that the more risks respondents perceived, the less they were inclined to accept NE. In contrast, the more a person believed that NE has beneficial consequences, the more acceptable NE was. Finally, as expected, perceived risks and benefits were found to partly mediate the relationship between personal values and acceptability. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Risk and Benefit Perceptions of Mobile Phone and Base Station Technology in Bangladesh

Research in developed countries showed that many citizens perceive that radio signals transmitted by mobile phones and base stations represent potential health risks. Less research has been conducted in developing countries focused on citizen perceptions of risks and benefits, despite the recent and rapid introduction of mobile communication technologies. This study aims to identify factors that are influential in determining the tradeoffs that Bangladeshi citizens make between risks and benefits in terms of mobile phone technology acceptance and health concerns associated with the technology. Bangladesh was selected as representative of many developing countries inasmuch as terrestrial telephone infrastructure is insubstantial, and mobile phone use has expanded rapidly over the last decade, even among the poor. Issues of importance were identified in a small‐scale qualitative study among Bangladeshi citizens (n = 13), followed by a survey within a sample of Bangladeshi citizens (n = 500). The results demonstrate that, in general, the perceived benefits of mobile phone technology outweigh the risks. The perceived benefits are primarily related to the social and personal advantages of mobile phone use, including the ability to receive emergency news about floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters. Base stations were seen as a symbol of societal advance. The results furthermore suggest that overall risk perceptions are relatively low, in particular health risks, and are primarily driven by perceptions that related to crime and social inconvenience. Perceived health risks are relatively small. These findings show that risk communication and management may be particularly effective when contextual factors of the society where the system is implemented are taken into consideration.     

Intentions to Seek Information About the Influenza Vaccine: The Role of Informational Subjective Norms,Anticipated and Experienced Affect,and Information Insufficiency Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated People

When deciding whether to vaccinate, people often seek information through consequential processes that are not currently well understood. A survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,091) explored the factors associated with intentions to seek influenza vaccine information in the 2018–2019 influenza season. This survey shed light on what motivates intentions to seek information about the influenza vaccine through the lens of the risk information seeking and processing (RISP) model. The model explained information-seeking intentions well among both unvaccinated and vaccinated respondents. Key findings show that informational subjective norms, information insufficiency, and different types of affect are strong predictors of information-seeking intentions. Theoretical insights on extending the RISP model and practical guidance on designing interventions are provided.     

A Social-Cognitive Perspective of Terrorism Risk Perception and Individual Response in Canada

The volume of research on terrorism has increased since the events of September 11, 2001. However, efforts to develop a contextualized model incorporating cognitive, social-contextual, and affective factors as predictors of individual responses to this threat have been limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate a series of hypotheses drawn from such a model that was generated from a series of interviews with members of the Canadian public. Data of a national survey on perceived chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives (CBRNE) terrorism threat and preparedness were analyzed. Results demonstrated that worry and behavioral responses to terrorism, such as individual preparedness, information seeking, and avoidance behaviors, were each a function of cognitive and social-contextual factors. As an affective response, worry about terrorism independently contributed to the prediction of behavioral responses above and beyond cognitive and social-contextual factors, and partially mediated the relationships of some of these factors with behavioral responses. Perceived coping efficacy emerged as the cognitive factor associated with the most favorable response to terrorism. Hence, findings highlight the importance of fostering a sense of coping efficacy to the effectiveness of strategies aimed at improving individual preparedness for terrorism.     

Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness: Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model

Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi‐longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high‐risk (chemical release) petrochemical manufacturing community investigated whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making. Telephone survey data collected at four intervals (1995, 1998, 2002, 2012) reveal that perceptions of protective actions and stakeholder norms, but not of threat, currently predict protective action decision making (intention to shelter in place). Of significance, rather than threat perceptions, perception of Wally Wise Guy (a spokes‐character who advocates shelter in place) correlates with perceptions of protective action, stakeholder norms, and protective action decision making. Wally's response‐efficacy advice predicts residents’ behavioral intentions to shelter in place, thereby offering contextually sensitive support and refinement for PADM.     

Perception of Mobile Phone and Base Station Risks

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.     

Does Size Matter? A Study of Risk Perceptions of Global Population Growth

The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well‐documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.‐based study that examined respondents’ risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate‐to‐high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research.     

Multiple Health Risk Perception and Information Processing Among African Americans and Whites Living in Poverty

We investigated the risk‐information‐processing behaviors of people living at or near the poverty line. Because significant gaps in health and communication exist among high‐ and low‐income groups, increasing the information seeking and knowledge of poor individuals may help them better understand risks to their health and increase their engagement in health‐protective behaviors. Most earlier studies assessed only a single health risk selected by the researcher, whereas we listed 10 health risks and allowed the respondents to identify the one that they worried about most but took little action to prevent. Using this risk, we tested one pathway inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model to examine predictors of information insufficiency and of systematic processing and extended this pathway to include health‐protective action. A phone survey was conducted of African Americans and whites living in the southern United States with an annual income of ≤$35,000 (N= 431). The results supported the model pathway: worry partially mediated the relationship between perceived risk and information insufficiency, which, in turn, increased systematic processing. In addition, systematic processing increased health‐protective action. Compared with whites and better educated respondents, African Americans and respondents with little education had significantly higher levels of information insufficiency but higher levels of systematic processing and health‐protective action. That systematic processing and knowledge influenced health behavior suggests a potential strategy for reducing health disparities.