Social Insurance Expansion and Political Regime Dynamics in Europe, 1880–1945*

Objectives. This article analyzes the causal relationship between political regime dynamics and social insurance expansion. I theorize that the social insurance expansion is the result of the ruling elites' strategic decision about regime change to dispel revolutionary motives. The key testable implication is that social insurance expansion is more likely to happen under a democratic regime, which, in turn, is influenced by the threat of social revolution evinced by strike activities. Methods. Using historical data on social insurance coverage from 12 European countries from 1880 to 1945, I test the hypothesis employing a treatment‐effects model that endogenizes democratization. Results. I find a positive association between social insurance expansion and democracy, controlling for other political mechanisms. Furthermore, I find that democratic transition is greatly influenced by the duration and intensity of strikes. Conclusion. This study suggests that social insurance expansion requires a link between a threat of revolution and democratization.     

Land Tenure,Democracy, and Patterns of Violence During the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal, 1996–2005*

Objectives. We seek to investigate the determinants of Nepal's relapse into authoritarianism and resort to violence rather than reform as a response to the Maoist insurgency. Revolutionary insurgency emerged in Nepal after a transition to parliamentary democracy, whereas democracy is supposed to inoculate a nation against the risk of civil war. We present a theory of how the level of violence varies across districts with variations in the distribution of peasants among land tenure categories. Methods. We use district‐level data from Nepal and test hypotheses by using negative binominal statistical analysis. Results. Our results indicate that the level of violence varies across districts with variations in land tenure patterns, the level of electoral participation, and the extent of poverty. Conclusions. Our study provides insights into how the concentration of landed resources and political power creates incentives for a landowning coalition that dominated the state to use violence against those segments of the peasantry that have incentives to support an insurgency that promised to redistribute land.     

Density Dependent Dynamics in the Population of Transgender Interest Groups in the United States, 1964–2005*

Objective. This article seeks to determine the value of density dependence theory in helping us understand the process of interest group mobilization. The general theory of density dependence has been tested against manifold organizational populations. It has not, however, been tested extensively against data on populations of overtly political organizations. Methods. I test the theory of density dependence against original data on the foundings of nationally active transgender interest groups in the United States for the period 1964–2005. I estimate several simple Poisson regression count models. Results. The results provide strong support for the theory of density dependence. Specifically, in the population of U.S. transgender interest groups, the data imply an inverted‐U relationship between density and the founding rate. Conclusions. My findings suggest the following: (1) theories of group mobilization that do not take contextual variables into account are likely to be incomplete; and (2) interest group populations most likely have stable carrying capacities. In all, the results provide yet more support for the general organizational ecology paradigm.     

Unemployment Insurance Reform – 1991–2006: A New Balance between Rights and Obligations in France,Germany, Portugal and Spain

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, focusing on unemployment insurance schemes, the article seeks to identify the development of social rights and obligations in four countries (France, Germany, Portugal and Spain), representative of the conservative regime, over the period 1991–2006. Second, the article aims to verify whether or not there was a common reform trajectory in time as well as in space, given the already known divergence over the appropriateness of classifying Mediterranean countries within the framework of a specific regime. Based on analysis of 25 legislative changes concerning entitlement and eligibility criteria, the study presents three major findings. First, the four insurance schemes reveal a new balance between (weaker) social rights and (stronger) obligations, which may indicate a trend toward a re‐commodification of work. Second, Portugal adopted a specific trajectory while the Spanish reform process more closely resembled that carried out by France and Germany. Finally, two waves of reform may be identified: first, between 1991 and 1997 and justified by cost‐containment concerns and, subsequently, from 2001 onwards, associated with a stronger recalibration of benefit rights.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.     

The Partisan Impact of Congressional Redistricting: The Case of Texas, 2001–2003*

Objective. In this article we assess the partisan effects of five plans proposed by Republican state legislators during Texas' 2003 congressional redistricting. Methods. Using the JudgeIt statistical program developed by Gelman and King (2001) , and data provided by the Texas Legislative Council, we assess the bias, responsiveness, and the probability that the Democratic Party wins each district for each plan. Results. All five Republican plans, including the one enacted, are strongly biased in favor of the Republican Party. Conclusions. Texas' Democratic legislators were wise to use every parliamentary maneuver available to block the enactment of a new congressional map. Beyond affecting the partisan makeup of the Texas delegation, Texas' redistricting has national implications because it adds to the GOP's narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.     

Voting for Catholic Candidates: The Evolution of a Stereotype*

Objectives. This article looks at the effects of candidate Catholicism on individual voters, turning the traditional inquiry into voters' religion on its head. Specifically, it hypothesizes that individuals stereotype Catholic candidates based on the voting behavior of Catholics in general, and that these stereotypes help voters make a decision in elections with Catholic candidates. Methods. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), this article argues that citizens hold stereotypes of Catholics based on actual Catholic political behavior—solidly Democratic from the 1950s to the 1970s, but trending Republican starting in the 1980s. It also tests these stereotypes with Gallup data on hypothetical Catholic candidates and analyzes, through election‐day exit polls, the impact on voters of the Catholic conversion of a sitting U.S. Senator. Results. The data analyses strongly support the article's hypothesis, demonstrating that partisan attitudes toward hypothetical Catholic candidates shifted direction as the Catholic electorate shifted. In addition, Senator Sam Brownback's (R‐KS) conversion to Catholicism increased partisan polarization in his support—indicating a conservative shift in perceptions. Conclusions. Candidate religion plays a role in elections. Specifically, voters stereotype candidates based on candidate religion and use this stereotyped information to help them make an electoral decision. This article demonstrates this effect for Catholicism, but other religions should evidence similar impacts.     

The Interaction of Race and Gender: Changing Gender‐Role Attitudes, 1974–2006*

Objective. The purpose of this article is to assess over‐time trends in the interactive effects of gender and race on attitudes toward the changing roles of women in U.S. society. Methods. This article uses data from the 1974–2006 General Social Survey. Gender‐role attitudes are measured using two composite indices of traditionalism. Results. We find black females tend to hold less traditional gender‐role attitudes than their black male, white male, and white female counterparts. Black and white males tend to hold similar attitudes toward women entering politics, but differ significantly in their attitudes toward women working outside the home and its impact on children. Assessing over‐time trends, we find the difference between black females and the other social groups to be generally diminishing. This convergence is more pronounced for white and black females. The difference in attitudes toward women entering politics between black females and white males, on the other hand, appears to be maintaining over time. Conclusions. These findings support the idea that the labor force participation for women may have provided the groundwork for the evolution of attitudes for men and women. As white women in particular increase participation in the workforce, ideologies regarding the place of women in U.S. society have shifted.     

The Revenge of History – The Institutional Roots of Post‐Communist Family Policy in the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland

The authors combine historical and sociological institutional analysis to show that despite the political and socio‐economic transformation in 1990s, the institutional development during and before the communist era provides the best explanation for current childcare policies in Central Europe. While most authors have concentrated on policy changes that have taken place in the region since 1989, this article concentrates on the historical roots of these policies and shows that today's policies are highly influenced by a certain dynamics that had already emerged under communist rule. It shows that a historical institutional approach, which analyses the ‘gendered logic of appropriateness’ and policy legacies at various critical junctures, can explain why family policies in Central Europe had already begun to differ during the communist era, why these main differences continue and why even the changes that have taken place follow logically from historical‐institutional developments.     

The Search for Coordination: The Case of the Central Policy Review Staff and Social Policy Planning, 1971–77

The Central Policy Review Staff (CPRS) attempted to create an ambitious strategy for the horizontal coordination of social policy in the UK during the early 1970s. The attempt – inspired largely by planning, programming and budgeting systems – was a failure, and gave way to a much modified ‘joint framework for social policies’ in 1975. Recent research has compared the CPRS's joint framework approach to the Labour government's promotion of ‘joined‐up government’ (JUG) in the 2000s. This article provides a case study of the CPRS's work on social policy planning, using archival sources. The case study addresses themes that remain significant, particularly approaches to and the politics of horizontal coordination. Finally, the article makes a modest attempt to signal the differences between the 1970s' approach and ‘JUG’.     

Measuring Media Bias: A Content Analysis of Time and Newsweek Coverage of Domestic Social Issues, 1975–2000*

Objective. This study is an effort to produce a more systematic, empirically‐based, historical‐comparative understanding of media bias than generally is found in previous works. Methods. The research employs a quantitative measure of ideological bias in a formal content analysis of the United States' two largest circulation news magazines, Time and Newsweek. Findings are compared with the results of an identical examination of two of the nation's leading partisan journals, the conservative National Review and the liberal Progressive. Results. Bias scores reveal stark differences between the mainstream and the partisan news magazines' coverage of four issue areas: crime, the environment, gender, and poverty. Conclusion. Data provide little support for those claiming significant media bias in either ideological direction.