Planning in a state of turbulence

This paper is concerned with an exploration of the role of the long range planner, whether in the private or public sector of the economy, and the impact made upon the processes of his work by government's increasing propensity to manipulate the economy. The authors' researches over the last 2 years into the comparative nature of planning processes in the U.K. economy have made it abundantly clear to them that planners are increasingly concerned at the dangerous potential of such impact upon their forecasting procedures. The emphasis here will rest upon the planner in private enterprises, although the authors' work in both local government and the nationalized enterprises suggest that the problem is of equal importance in these sectors.The authors consider first the past nature of the search processes in long range planning and the context of such attempts to narrow down the range of variables that form the enterprise's perception of its future. Secondly, they examine the emerging discontinuity and the changing role of government, with particular reference to indicative planning concepts. Then they introduce some of the findings of a recent survey of attitudes towards long range planning in the construction industry of the U.K., a sector vitally influenced by turbulence in the economy and with particular interest in government's ideas of macro-planning. Finally Edwards and Harris examine the implications to government and to planners of their findings.     

Implementation with Near‐Complete Information

Many refinements of Nash equilibrium yield solution correspondences that do not have closed graph in the space of payoffs or information. This has significance for implementation theory, especially under complete information. If a planner is concerned that all equilibria of his mechanism yield a desired outcome, and entertains the possibility that players may have even the slightest uncertainty about payoffs, then the planner should insist on a solution concept with closed graph. We show that this requirement entails substantial restrictions on the set of implementable social choice rules. In particular, when preferences are strict (or more generally, hedonic), while almost any social choice function can be implemented in undominated Nash equilibrium, only monotonic social choice functions can be implemented in the closure of the undominated Nash correspondence.     

Who is Appointed to What Position? The Politics of Appointment in Quangos of Korea

This study identifies the determinants of appointment of executives in quangos. Using data from 85 quangos in Korea over 15 years between 1993 and 2007, we investigate the degree to which various characteristics of organizational actors affect the choice of executives. Three organizational actors include presidents, sponsoring government departments, and the concerned quangos. Although results vary by executive position, the findings of the empirical analysis with multinomial probit and generalized linear mixed models support the idea that the appointment of quango executives is not the result of presidential choice but that of the interactions among the key organizational actors, with different incentives and resources, on the appointment. Compared to former bureaucrats, presidential allies are more likely to be appointed when presidents have more political support from the National Assembly and it is easier for insiders to be promoted as executives from larger and older quangos with clear legal origins.     

An Examination of the Economic Circumstances Surrounding Decisions to Capitalize Brands

The paper reports both the results of an empirical investigation into the effects of the decisions of 13 UK companies to include brands in their published balance sheets on the prices of their shares, and also an examination of the motivations for these decisions from a costly contracting perspective. Price gains appear to be positively associated with the proportionate increase in reported net assets caused by capitalizing brands. On the other hand, when allowance is made for the contemporaneous release of other information, little, if any, of the share price behaviour around the announcement dates can be attributed to the capitalization of brands - a finding consistent either with the capital market having already formed unbiased expectations of brand values prior to disclosure, or with ills having serious doubts about the credibility of the valuations. Consistent with a costly contracting perspective of accounting method choice, we found that brand capitalization had a marked impact on reported gearing levels and more or less eliminated the higher gearing levels of capitalizing firms relative to similar companies, particularly as far as late adopting firms were concerned. Brand capitalization also had a particularly marked impact on book-to-market-equity ratios; capitalization served to increase the ratios of capitalizing firms to approximately the levels observed on the non-capitalizing controls.     

The use of economic appraisal in transportation analysis

This paper surveys the use of economic appraisal techniques in the field of transportation. After surveying the history of such approaches, a critical assessment is offered of the most recent contributions to the debate, centering on the 1977 Leitch Report. The limited room for manoeuvre in making local assessments is highlighted: national policy considerations are seen as frequently dominating the local choice. While most of the debate on the ‘inadequacies’ of cost-benefit have focussed on ‘intangible’ items, the author argues for a much closer look at the ‘hard’ data on the value of time-savings and accident costs. Some of the Leitch committee's proposals are found wanting in this respect. In the wider context, a plea is made for the use of common criteria for assessing projects throughout the entire transport sector. Only in this way can misallocation of resources be minimised.     

Gender Differences in Risk Perception: Effects Differ in Stressed vs. Non-Stressed Environments

Contrary to previous reports that women are more concerned about environmental risks than men, we hypothesized that men and women residing in neighborhoods stressed by multiple hazards would demonstrate similar concerns about local environmental conditions. Analysis of a national data base and an aggregate of ten local data bases found greater female than male concern about local technological, behavioral, and land use hazards in good neighborhoods, but, as expected, not in stressed ones. We urge analysts to conduct more studies in stressed neighborhoods in order to better understand the perspective of those who live with environmental risks.     

The Access of the Young Graduates in Sciences into R&D Profession: A Switching Model Treatment for the French Case

We address the question concerning the choice of graduates in sciences and engineering to look for employment in research and development. We use an endogenous switching regression to avoid the existence of self‐selection biases. The study shows that human capital is decisive where both employment opportunities and remuneration are concerned within, but not without, this sector. The results also suggest that in the early stages of a career, the R&D sector is less rewarding than other types of employment only for doctors and not for graduates from engineering schools.     

Spatial Transmission Models: A Taxonomy and Framework

Within risk analysis and, more broadly, the decision behind the choice of which modeling technique to use to study the spread of disease, epidemics, fires, technology, rumors, or, more generally, spatial dynamics, is not well documented. While individual models are well defined and the modeling techniques are well understood by practitioners, there is little deliberate choice made as to the type of model to be used, with modelers using techniques that are well accepted in the field, sometimes with little thought as to whether alternative modeling techniques could or should be used. In this article, we divide modeling techniques for spatial transmission into four main categories: population‐level models, where a macro‐level estimate of the infected population is required; cellular models, where the transmission takes place between connected domains, but is restricted to a fixed topology of neighboring cells; network models, where host‐to‐host transmission routes are modeled, either as planar spatial graphs or where shortcuts can take place as in social networks; and, finally, agent‐based models that model the local transmission between agents, either as host‐to‐host geographical contacts, or by modeling the movement of the disease vector, with dynamic movement of hosts and vectors possible, on a Euclidian space or a more complex space deformed by the existence of information about the topology of the landscape. We summarize these techniques by introducing a taxonomy classifying these modeling approaches. Finally, we present a framework for choosing the most appropriate spatial modeling method, highlighting the links between seemingly disparate methodologies, bearing in mind that the choice of technique rests with the subject expert.     

Limitations on the Usefulness of Risk Assessment

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is now regarded as an essential component in the analysis of risks arising from installations classified as major hazards. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of the results in decision-making in practical situations. The use made of QRA in three contrasting cases which came to extensive public attention in the U.K. is examined. The first concerned an extension of domestic development near a chemical factory; the second an extension to a large petrochemical complex; and the third to a proposal to build a pressurized water reactor. The two public inquiries concerned with the chemical industry accepted standards of individual risk which were comparable to the risks from everyday accidents; the evidence of societal risk that could arise from major accidents at the petrochemical complex was compared with that of a local natural hazard — flooding. Higher standards of individual safety were set in the inquiry into the PWR proposal, and the definition of societal risk was debated at length. The QRA results were analyzed to show that risks arising from accidents were lower than those from normal operations, but they were used explicitly as a check on the overall safety of the design and of the operational and licensing organization. Such qualitative examination will always be required in addition to QRA. All these inquiries were faced with considerable technical argument. There is a need for the full details of risk calculations to be clear. The usefulness of QRA as an input to decision-making would be much enhanced if the technical points at issue could be clarified outside a formal public inquiry. In addition, there are some technical questions which apply to many installations. There should be better mechanisms of technical debate to achieve a measure of agreement on the optimum methods of calculation in these cases, and some possibilities are explored.     

关于外资并购国有企业若干问题的讨论——以德国博西华公司收购安徽扬子电冰箱厂为例

一、引言伴随着全球化以及中国参与国际分工程度的深入 ,大型国际跨国公司必然越来越多地选择跨国并购方式进入中国① 。与此同时 ,由于面对空前的竞争压力 ,部分国有企业也开始更多地考虑通过转让部分所有权的方式与外资进行合作。国有企业的这种将资本存量出售给跨国公司的构想 ,与前些年一些地方政府关于国企改革“一卖了之”思路 ,可以说是不谋而合。于是 ,在２０世纪９０年代中期 ,在我国掀起了外资并购国有企业的第一个高潮。抛开民族工业的保护问题不谈 ,我们认为 ,在相隔几年之后 ,回顾当时并购过程中发生的问题;考察并购后企业运…     

交易、风险与所有权——解释中国经济转轨路径及其绩效的一种新视角

本文试图为解释中国经济转轨过程提供一个新的视角 ,并通过强调有效交易和所有权的重要性来恢复与修补一些经典理论对经济转轨过程的解释力 ,以便将其最终整合到日见丰富和成熟的转轨经济理论的一般框架之中。本文的理论贡献可以归纳为:第一 ,阐发有效交易理论 ,认为经典理论所坚守的互利信条只是达成有效交易的必要条件 ,所有权的完整性才是充分条件。在所有权存在缺陷时 ,一种对当事人双方有利的交易极有可能伤及社会。第二 ,提出内生风险命题 ,经典资产选择理论所关注的外生风险主要源自宏观经济政策及企业经营层面 ,而内生风险则与微观经济基础尤其是所有权制度密切相关。第三 ,揭示出所有权、交易与产权之间的逻辑联系 ,并阐明所有权不一定是有效的但必须是完整的和神圣不可侵犯的观点。第四 ,指出内生贸易模型的隐含条件 ,发现在主管政府充当贸易者的场合 ,交易效率条件完全可以被超越 ,国际贸易就不一定非要以国内贸易为前提 ,而这种贸易也就极有可能成为贸易双方合谋算计国家和社会的博弈。本文的政策含义是 ,中国经济转轨的实际绩效与有效交易的规模和市场份额直接相关 ,而有效交易的成长既不依赖于政府推进市场化的决心 ,也不仰仗于法律与行政部门对交易主体的监督和惩罚力度 ,而最终取决于完     

The dynamics of policy change

This paper is concerned with policy adaptation and policy design in the public sector. The author commences with examples from UK experience relating to policy, initially using the local authority structure plans as an illustration. He then develops three assertions: that (1) turbulence undermines policy; (2) complexity undermines policy and (3) responsiveness undermines policy. Subsequently he discusses ways in which policy development may make a positive contribution to public planning, taking account of these realities.     

突发危机事件网络舆情治理的多情景演化博弈分析

互联网时代，网络媒体已经成为谣言传播的重要载体，严重威胁到我国的网络空间安全和社会和谐稳定，因此加强和创新对网络媒体的监管，妥善治理突发危机事件网络舆情是各级政府面临的重大挑战。针对突发危机事件网络舆情治理的研究，本文运用演化博弈理论构建了网络媒体与地方政府双方演化博弈模型，在引入中央政府惩罚机制基础上，对比分析了网络媒体与地方政府双方行为策略选择的演化稳定均衡，同时采取多案例进行实证研究，并通过数值仿真分析对模型进行多情景推演模拟。研究结果表明：突发危机事件网络舆情传播热度与网络媒体和地方政府双方的策略选择有着直接关系；若地方政府承受突发危机事件网络舆情恶性演化造成的经济损失与信誉损失持续增大，双方演化系统都会出现周期性波动现象；引入中央政府惩罚机制后，其惩罚力度若高于网络媒体消极应对网络舆情所受到的惩罚和地方政府的监管投入成本时，最终系统会演化至良性状态，研究结论为政府部门在面对突发危机事件网络舆情治理方面提供了新思路。     

A modelling system for local government resource planning

A major problem in local government is how to maximise the effectiveness of resource allocation. Senior officers and members concerned with corporate and strategic issues must take account of contemporary information of considerable variety and combine this with estimates of the future in their attempts to achieve rational resource allocation. This article describes the development of an experimental computer based corporate modelling system at Clwyd County Council which was designed to support allocation decisions pertaining to a 5 year planning period. It is concluded that a firm basis was achieved for progress towards a comprehensive operational system.     

What Is Wrong with Criterion FN-Lines for Judging the Tolerability of Risk?

This paper is concerned with the intellectual framework in which judgments are made about the tolerability of so-called societal risk. The current practical approach is based on the position of the FN-curves representing the risks from hazardous systems in relation to criterion FN-lines. The objections to FN-criteria are that they can give unreasonable conclusions and that they are inconsistent. Statistical decision theory suggests an alternative and preferable rule of minimising the expected disutility, that is average harm, from accidents.     

NIMBY, CLAMP, and the Location of New Nuclear-Related Facilities: U.S. National and 11 Site-Specific Surveys

Public and political opposition have made finding locations for new nuclear power plants, waste management, and nuclear research and development facilities a challenge for the U.S. government and the nuclear industry. U.S. government-owned properties that already have nuclear-related activities and commercial nuclear power generating stations are logical locations. Several studies and utility applications to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission suggest that concentrating locations at major plants (CLAMP) has become an implicit siting policy. We surveyed 2,101 people who lived within 50 miles of 11 existing major nuclear sites and 600 who lived elsewhere in the United States. Thirty-four percent favored CLAMP for new nuclear power plants, 52% for waste management facilities, and 50% for new nuclear laboratories. College educated, relatively affluent male whites were the strongest CLAMP supporters. They disproportionately trusted those responsible for the facilities and were not worried about existing nuclear facilities or other local environmental issues. Notably, they were concerned about continuing coal use. Not surprisingly, CLAMP proponents tended to be familiar with their existing local nuclear site. In short, likely CLAMP sites have a large and politically powerful core group to support a CLAMP policy. The challenge to proponents of nuclear technologies will be to sustain this support and expand the base among those who clearly are less connected and receptive to new nearby sites.     

Forecasting With Model Uncertainty: Representations and Risk Reduction

We consider forecasting with uncertainty about the choice of predictor variables. The researcher wants to select a model, estimate the parameters, and use the parameter estimates for forecasting. We investigate the distributional properties of a number of different schemes for model choice and parameter estimation, including: in‐sample model selection using the Akaike information criterion; out‐of‐sample model selection; and splitting the data into subsamples for model selection and parameter estimation. Using a weak‐predictor local asymptotic scheme, we provide a representation result that facilitates comparison of the distributional properties of the procedures and their associated forecast risks. This representation isolates the source of inefficiency in some of these procedures. We develop a simulation procedure that improves the accuracy of the out‐of‐sample and split‐sample methods uniformly over the local parameter space. We also examine how bootstrap aggregation (bagging) affects the local asymptotic risk of the estimators and their associated forecasts. Numerically, we find that for many values of the local parameter, the out‐of‐sample and split‐sample schemes perform poorly if implemented in the conventional way. But they perform well, if implemented in conjunction with our risk‐reduction method or bagging.     

OPTIMAL SCHEDULING FOR INVESTMENT OF EXCESS CASH

A method is presented for the scheduling of a company's investments of its predictable, short-term, excess cash. The problem is structured in a way that leads to a fairly simple dynamic programming algorithm. The method is very flexible with regard to the type of investments considered; no structural properties of rates of return or availability are made except that they are predictable. The method allows the choice of holding to maturity or not and the choice can differ for different types of investments. A bank constraint, which fixes the average bank balance over the planning period, is added and the method of solution obtained.     

Location-boundedness,investment irreversibility,and divestment of international joint ventures under host market demand uncertainty

We employ the real options perspective to examine how the irreversibility of location-bound assets and resources affects the divestment of international joint ventures (IJVs) under exogenous uncertainty in host countries. Utilizing a large sample of Korean IJVs and addressing a sample selection of IJVs and the endogeneity of firms’ choice of location-bound investments, we find that high host market demand uncertainty interacts with localized products or local sales forces and reduces divestment rates of IJVs. We also find that the deterrent effects of these two country-specific investments are more salient for IJVs with local sourcing and sales. These findings imply that the deterrent effect of location-boundedness is congruent with the uncertainty-based real options theory when explaining IJV divestment.     

Corporate planning in local government: Some measurement problems

A corporate planning system makes measurement demands on an organisation which it may not have met before. This paper describes these in the context of corporate planning in local government, and discusses some typical examples, especially as far as needs for services and the effects of providing them are concerned. It also deals with the extent to which choices can be measured, and with the constraints that a real-time decision system puts on the planner.