对外直接投资对绿色全要素生产率的空间效应影响

基于2004—2016年中国30个省（市、自治区）的面板数据,通过空间杜宾计量模型（SDM）实证研究了对外直接投资（OFDI）对绿色全要素生产率的空间效应影响。结果显示：各地区绿色全要素生产率及其分解项存在明显的地区差异;绿色全要素生产率、绿色技术进步和绿色效率变化存在显著的空间相关性;OFDI逆向技术溢出能够显著的促进本地区绿色全要素生产率提高,并且存在显著的空间溢出效应;FDI技术溢出对绿色技术进步具有显著的正向推动作用;进口技术溢出和自主研发能够显著促进绿色全要素生产率和绿色技术进步的提升;环境规制强度对我国绿色全要素生产率具有非线性影响。     

能源价格对制造业能源强度调节效应的实证研究

能耗过高影响中国制造业的可持续发展,能源价格是市场体制中调节能源强度的重要因素和手段.引入价格作为调节变量,研究其对于技术进步和能源消费结构对行业能源强度影响的调节效应.运用1995年～2005年的数据,采用层次回归法对制造业24个重要行业的能源价格与能源强度的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,对大多数行业,能源价格的提升并未明显降低能源强度,能源价格对于技术进步对能源强度影响的调节效应不显著,能源价格的调节效应更多地表现为促进能源消费结构转化来降低行业能源强度.     

节能技术创新有助于降低能源消费吗?——“杰文斯悖论”的再检验

节能技术创新被视为提高能源效率和降低能源消费的重要途径.本文以电力要素为研究对象,在手工收集和整理2007年～2016年我国城市节电专利的基础上,采用空间杜宾模型研究了节电技术创新对我国城市电力消费的影响及传导机制.研究结果表明：在全国和分地区层面,节电技术创新不仅促进了城市的总电力消费,也刺激了工业和生活电力消费;在全国和东部城市层面,节电技术创新均存在显著的空间溢出效应.在经过替换空间权重矩阵、改变节电技术衡量方法以及剔除省会或直辖市之后,估计结果依然稳健,说明在我国节能技术创新与能源消费之间存在着“杰文斯悖论”.进一步的机制检验认为,节能技术创新能通过影响产业结构和能源价格,有效降低地区的能源消费.因此,中国在应用和推广节能技术的过程中,可通过配套产业结构升级和能源价格市场化,破解“杰文斯悖论”.     

节能技术创新有助于降低能源消费吗?——“杰文斯悖论”的再检验北大核心CSCDCSSCI

节能技术创新被视为提高能源效率和降低能源消费的重要途径,本文以电力要素为研究对象,在手工收集和整理2007年~2016年我国城市节电专利的基础上,采用空间杜宾模型研究了节电技术创新对我国城市电力消费的影响及传导机制,研究结果表明:在全国和分地区层面,节电技术创新不仅促进了城市的总电力消费,也刺激了工业和生活电力消费;在全国和东部城市层面,节电技术创新均存在显著的空间溢出效应,在经过替换空间权重矩阵、改变节电技术衡量方法以及别除省会或直辖市之后,估计结果依然稳健,说明在我国节能技术创新与能源消费之间存在着“杰文斯悖论”,进一步的机制检验认为,节能技术创新能通过影响产业结构和能源价格,有效降低地区的能源消费,因此,中国在应用和推广节能技术的过程中,可通过配套产业结构升级和能源价格市场化,破解"杰文斯悖论".     

能源价格波动、诱导性技术进步与中国环境全要素生产率

随着能源的"金融属性"日益凸显,科学评估能源价格波动对经济增长和环境改善的综合影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于参数化的双曲线距离函数,将能源价格因素纳入环境全要素生产率（ETFP）的分析框架,剖析能源价格波动影响ETFP变动的内在机理;在此基础上,运用1995~2015年省际面板数据,考察能源价格诱导性技术进步对我国ETFP提升的促进作用及其时空分异规律,并识别该技术进步的具体偏向类型。研究结果表明：近20年来我国能源价格诱导性技术进步的平均速率为0.22%,其对ETFP变动的提升作用相对较弱,并表现出较强的时空分异特征。此外,从要素投入来看,能源价格诱导性技术进步总体上呈现资本和能源节约—劳动力使用型特征;从产出侧来看,其主要偏向于SO₂的减排,但对CO₂减排和GDP扩张的诱导作用不甚明显。     

中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的空间格局及传导机制研究

<正>对外直接投资（OFDI）逆向技术溢出作为母国获取技术的新渠道,已成为全球-地区背景下发展中地区经济、技术演变的重要影响因素之一。分析结果表明：全国样本下,相较于FDI和IM技术溢出的滞后提升作用和抑制作用而言,OFDI逆向技术溢出能够显著提升全要素生产率、促进技术发展。中国OFDI逆向技术溢出效应与技术进步效应显著性较一致。分区域水平上,OFDI逆向技术溢出对技术效率和全要素生产率的影响呈现较一致的空间格局。技术进步和技术效率的协调促进作用是国际技术溢出提高区域全要素生产率的内在机制,其中尤以技术效率更为重要。     

考虑环境效应的中国省际全要素能源效率研究

从系统论的角度出发,将能源利用的环境影响纳入全要素能源效率研究框架.运用2000年～2007年中国省际面板数据,以资本存量、从业人员总数和能源消费为投入指标,各省份GDP,CO_2和S0_2排放量为好和坏的产出指标,选取基于投入导向的BC～2-DEA模型,测算包含环境效应的中国省际全要素能源效率,并分析比较全国整体、各省份和三大地区的能效差异;给出2000年～2007年中国省际能源利用效率的4类模式,并采用Tobit模型检验中国全要素能源效率的影响因素.实证分析结果表明,中国全要素能源效率整体水平偏低,各省份、三大地区的能源效率差异显著,节能减排潜力巨大;技术进步、经济结构和能源消费结构的优化对提高能源效率有显著促进作用,市场化水平和能源价格的提升对提高能源效率有积极影响,但是目前这两种机制作用尚未充分发挥.     

技术进步对中国电力行业环境效率提升影响的实证研究——基于SBM超效率-ML-Tobit三阶段分析法

本文综合采用SBM超效率模型和ML模型，从静态和动态的视角分别对2009-2018年中国30个省份电力行业环境效率及其增长率进行测度，并对静态效率和动态效率进行拆分，分析技术进步对其的影响；利用Tobit回归模型，对技术进步等因素对全国及六大电网区域电力行业环境效率及其增长率的影响进行实证检验。结果表明：研究期间中国电力行业环境效率年均值为0.769，还具有较大的提升空间；华中电网和东北电网区域的纯技术效率提升对环境效率的提升贡献较低；南方电网区域纯技术效率显著推动了环境效率的提升；中国电力行业环境效率以年均5.6%的水平提升，其中技术进步年均增长率为3.7%。技术进步对中国电力行业环境效率的提升贡献较大，“十二五”以来，中国电力行业技术进步速度在加快；技术进步是电力行业环境效率及其增长率的关键影响因素，对其具有显著正影响。建议继续加大科技投入、加强科技创新，以继续推动中国电力行业环境效率的提升；各区域应积极主动，且因地制宜地采取有效措施；加快核电等清洁电力能源的发展，优化电源结构。     

我国全要素能源效率的测度与分析

考虑到能源与资本、劳动力等投入要素间普遍存在的替代效应,本文通过全要素能源效率指标考察我国能源利用水平的时空变化特征,并利用计量模型分析全要素生产率各分解部分对能源效率的影响作用。研究表明:我国总体及区域内的全要素能源效率自2001年起出现了退化现象,区域间能源效率的差异性较为显著,且有扩大趋势;全要素能源效率与全要素生产率之间关系密切,技术进步、纯技术效率和规模效率对能源效率的改善均具有促进作用,软技术的贡献甚至已超越了传统科技进步的功效。     

地区竞争、推广数字普惠金融与绿色经济效率

基于考虑非期望产出的Super-SBM模型测算了2011—2018年中国265个地级市的绿色经济效率,综合运用面板模型、空间杜宾模型,系统分析了地区竞争下推广数字普惠金融对绿色经济效率的影响效应。研究发现：(1)绿色经济效率存在显著正向空间溢出效应,地理距离与经济差异是其产生空间溢出的重要因素;(2)推广数字普惠金融有助于提升全社会和本地的绿色经济效率,但对邻近地区的绿色经济效率存在一定抑制作用;(3)地区适度竞争下推广数字普惠金融有助于提升全社会和本地的绿色经济效率,但地区过度竞争下推广数字普惠金融则对其产生显著“拉低效应”;(4)地区竞争下推广数字普惠金融对邻近地区的绿色经济效率具有显著负向的空间溢出效应;(5)推广信用类数字普惠金融对绿色经济效率的提升作用最大,地区竞争与推广数字普惠金融的交互作用对绿色经济效率产生的负向影响也主要源于信用类数字普惠金融。为此,推动地区间数字普惠金融的协调发展,保持地区间的适度竞争,分类推广数字普惠金融,将有助于提升绿色经济效率。     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Job strain and psychotropic drug use among white-collar workers

The main objective of this study was to measure the association between simultaneous exposure to high psychological demand and low decision latitude at work and the use of psychotropic drugs among white-collar workers. A second objective was to determine whether social support at work modified this association. A cross-sectional study was performed that included 2786 workers from the public sector in the Greater Quebec City area. A self-administered questionnaire was used in order to evaluate psychological demand, decision latitude and social support at work. Psychotropic drug use was measured over a period of 2 days. The prevalence of psychotropic drug use among the participants was found to be 3.9%, even though 20.5% were exposed to job strain. The association between job strain and psychotropic drug use, after adjustment for social support at work, age, gender, education, family income, employment status, occupation, stressful life events, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity, was statistically significant (odds ratio: 4.5, 95% CI 1.7?12.2). Social support did not appear to modify this association. The results of this study suggest that job strain might be a determinant of psychotropic drug use among white collar workers. Social support at work does not appear, however, to modify this association.     

Role clarity, work overload and organizational support: multilevel evidence of the importance of support

The present study extended the demands-control-support model used in occupational stress research in two ways. First, it hypothesized that role clarity (i.e. role ambiguity), like control, would moderate the relationship between demands and psychological strain. Second, the study assessed support (from leaders) as a macro characteristic of the work-group environment. Data were drawn from a large study of US army soldiers, the study sample consisting of 1786 lower enlisted male soldiers. The inclusion of support as a work-group characteristic lead to a multilevel test of the model. A three-way multilevel interaction among work demands, role clarity and support was observed. As predicted, the relationship between demands and psychological strain was moderated by role clarity; however, this moderating relationship was found only when work-group support was high.     

Leadership, levels of analysis, and déjà vu: Modest proposals for taxonomy and cladistics coupled with replication and visualization

In the inaugural issue of LQ's Yearly Review of Leadership, Hunt and Dodge (2000, p. 442) note that, “Within the last two decades, one of the crucial developments in organizational research in general, and in leadership research specifically, is the articulation of specific levels of analysis and their implications for theory building, measurement, and observation.” Their original observations are updated by extending the inferential logic of Yammarino, Dionne, Chun and Dansereau (2005) to determine if any increase in the utilization of a level of analysis perspective has occurred in the last five years. The possible evolution of leadership theory and analysis is discussed, especially with reference to Relational Leadership Theory, Leader–Member Exchange, and Individualized Dyadic Theory. Proposals incorporating taxonomic and visualization tools as a means to help bridge the stakeholder gap are also offered.     

Information Frictions in Trade

It is costly to learn about market conditions elsewhere, especially in developing countries. This paper examines how such information frictions affect trade. Using data on regional agricultural trade in the Philippines, I first document a number of observed patterns in trade flows and prices that suggest the presence of information frictions. I then incorporate information frictions into a perfect competition trade model by embedding a process whereby heterogeneous producers engage in a costly sequential search process to determine where to sell their produce. I show that introducing information frictions reconciles the theory with the observed patterns in the data. Structural estimation of the model finds that information frictions are quantitatively important: roughly half the observed regional price dispersion is due to information frictions. Furthermore, incorporating information frictions improves the out‐of‐sample predictive power of the model.     

The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of internal city structure that features agglomeration and dispersion forces and an arbitrary number of heterogeneous city blocks. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical analysis because of stochastic shocks to commuting decisions, which yield a gravity equation for commuting flows. To structurally estimate agglomeration and dispersion forces, we use data on thousands of city blocks in Berlin for 1936, 1986, and 2006 and exogenous variation from the city's division and reunification. We estimate substantial and highly localized production and residential externalities. We show that the model with the estimated agglomeration parameters can account both qualitatively and quantitatively for the observed changes in city structure. We show how our quantitative framework can be used to undertake counterfactuals for changes in the organization of economic activity within cities in response, for example, to changes in the transport network.     

Modelling end-of-life product recovery chains - a case study

European Union legislation, and existing national legislation of many European countries, mandates that manufacturers take back and recover their electronic and electrical equipment. If manufacturers are to comply with legislation, models need to be developed for these activities. Whilst infrastructural and technological deficits exist and must be addressed, so too must the organization of recovery, from a business perspective. In this paper, models of resource recovery are presented and a case study described.