不确定性环境对建设工程项目决策的影响机理研究

大型建设工程项目是维护社会生产和生活的基础,对经济社会的可持续发展,促进和谐社会构建起着重要作用,然而,环境的不确定性和复杂性加剧了大型建设工程项目决策的难度,影响其总体建设目标和预期效益的实现。通过对大型建设工程的决策环境、决策主体进行理论分析,本文构建了不确定性环境对决策和决策效果的影响机理概念模型,并实证分析定量研究了决策环境不确定性对决策效果的影响关系。研究表明,决策环境不确定性对决策效果有直接或间接影响,其中决策信息、社会环境和决策组织对决策效果的影响最为显著,研究结论为我国大型建设工程项目的决策重点考虑因素提供了参考。     

新兴产业政策决策过程中的不确定性管理研究——基于物联网产业的宏观政策决策过程的案例

采用纵贯研究、内容分析、深度访谈相结合的定性研究方法,以推动我国物联网产业发展的3个宏观政策决策过程为研究对象,旨在讨论政企互动是如何帮助政府进行不确定性管理的.研究结论表明:新兴产业的宏观政策决策是由数个存在递进关系的渐进式阶段组成,而每个渐进式事项的解决依赖于众多在政企互动中形成的微观政策工具的实施.政企互动帮助政策决策者通过4种机制(信息获取、行动协调、企业行动承诺和政府政策承诺)实现了对因信息缺乏以及对产业行动者资源依赖所造成的不确定性的管理.     

决策的约束及有效决策的制度安排

决策面临决策问题选择、决策项目分析和可行方案搜寻等三个约束,任何方面的缺失都导致决策失当。决策者本身的因素、外部对决策者的影响对决策次序和议事日程产生影响,组织结构化形成知识层级进而影响组织知识、组织内决策博弈和治理结构等因素决定决策分析的效果,方案集的“关闭”损害了方案集的完备性,直接决定了方案的性质以及选择。有效的决策需要社会资本的支持,需要决策制度保障。     

对我国设立监护报酬制度的必要性及其性质的辨析

监护报酬制度,是指一国监护制度中规定的监护人因其对被监护人的监护行为而获取报酬的制度。世界上一些国家立法规定了这一制度,我国与监护制度相关的立法中并没有规定这一制度,于是一些学者主张应当在我国设立监护报酬制度。     

考虑排污权市场价格不确定性的企业生产决策

目前有关不确定情境下排污权交易企业生产决策问题研究通常都是采纳的期望效用理论。针对排污权市场价格不确定性普遍存在的客观事实,重点引入前景理论,考察排污权市场价格不确定情境下的企业生产决策问题。首先通过建立特定排污权市场价格下的生产决策优化模型,提取了企业在产品生产、污染削减、排污权交易等方面决策行为与排污权市场价格之间的关联性;基于此,运用前景理论分析框架,分析、推导了排污权市场价格不确定情境下企业生产决策的价值函数、主观概率与决策权重函数,建立了考虑心理参考点与决策偏好的生产决策模型。结果表明:由于受信息局限、资源禀赋、心理预期、行为偏好等多方面的影响,企业的实际生产决策会系统性地偏离期望最优决策;算例分析也从多个角度清晰刻画了企业面向排污权市场价格不确定性的复杂决策行为,所得结果更贴近现实情景,并充分说明了基于前景理论的模型分析能够更好地描述排污权交易企业的实际生产决策行为。     

基于交货时间不确定性的二阶供应链决策模型研究

在以供应链为主体的竞争中,很多行业的分销商占据越来越重要的位置.本文通过建立一个以分销商为方,制造商从方的Stackelberg博弈二阶供应链模型,比较分析在分散决策与集中决策时的收益,得出制造商、分销商在交货响应时间不确定情况下的集中决策模式要优于分散决策模式;并得出在两种决策模式下最优的响应时间以及产品价格.     

浅谈旅游企业动机报酬制度的建立

合理而具有吸引力的报酬不但能有效激发员工的积极性、主动性，促进员工努力去实现企业的目标，提高企业的经济效益，而且能在人力资源竞争日益激烈的知识经济下吸引和保留住一支素质良好且具有竞争力的员工队伍。旅游企业作为劳动密集型企业，尤其要关注利用报酬的激励作用来提高员工的工作积极性，要建立健全科学合理的报酬制度。本文结合旅游企业特点，提出了动机报酬制度的建立和运用。     

现代企业制度的缺陷与经营者激励报酬计划安排

现代企业制度所具有的经营权与所有权“两权分离”的特征促进了经济与社会的发展。但是,正是由于“两权分离”,导致现代企业制度的组织缺陷——代理问题以及由此而产生的内部人控制现象。激励机制是现代企业制度的重要组成部分,经营者激励报酬计划安排(包括业绩基础和激励报酬类型)有助于将企业经营者从单纯的支薪阶层转向分享(风险)阶层。     

建立符合高职院校特点的决策制度

制度建设是一所学校办学水平、管理水平高低的重要标志,高职院校如何在科学发展观的指导下,通过制度创新走科学发展之路,提高理论创新、科技创新和文化创新能力,成为高职院校的办学者、教育者、管理者需要深思、探索和实践的重要课题。     

完善专家咨询制度 推进决策的科学化

<正> 党的十六大报告从政治文明建设的高度,对改革和完善决策机制,进行了专题论述。将完善专家咨询制度作为完善重大决策的规则和程序之一,是三个代表重要思想在决策机制建设上的生动体现。结合多年工作的实践,对完善专家咨询制度方面的体会是:     

Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Deep uncertainty in future climatic and economic conditions complicates developing infrastructure designed to last several generations, such as water reservoirs. In response, analysts have developed multiple robust decision frameworks to help identify investments and policies that can withstand a wide range of future states. Although these frameworks are adept at supporting decisions where uncertainty cannot be represented probabilistically, analysts necessarily choose probabilistic bounds and distributions for uncertain variables to support exploratory modeling. The implications of these assumptions on the analytical outcomes of robust decision frameworks are rarely evaluated, and little guidance exists in terms of how to select uncertain variable distributions. Here, we evaluate the impact of these choices by following the robust decision-making procedure, using four different assumptions about the probabilistic distribution of exogenous uncertainties in future climatic and economic states. We take a water reservoir system in Ethiopia as our case study, and sample climatic parameters from uniform, normal, extended uniform, and extended normal distributions; we similarly sample two economic parameters. We compute regret and satisficing robustness decision criteria for two performance measures, agricultural water demand coverage and net present value, and perform scenario discovery on the most robust reservoir alternative. We find lower robustness scores resulting from extended parameter distributions and demonstrate that parameter distributions can impact vulnerabilities identified through scenario discovery. Our results suggest that exploratory modeling within robust decision frameworks should sample from extended, uniform parameters distributions.     

风险偏好和需求不确定性对销售努力和补货决策库存系统的影响

研究风险偏好和需求不确定性对库存和销售努力决策库存系统的影响.运用应用概率中的随机比较方法,分别在一阶和二阶随机占优的意义下给出比较需求分布不同两个系统的最优利润和努力水平的充分条件或充分必要条件.证明存在一类需求分布在一定条件下系统的最优利润和努力水平都随需求可变性的增加而增大.数值例子验证了获得的研究结果.     

基于不确定条件下的供应商参与协同设计决策分析

以供应商参与协同设计所承担任务比例,作为其参与程度的定量指标,考虑研发不确定性,从供应商角度出发寻求其最适合的参与程度。研究结果表明,对于供应商而言,其参与受双方相对边际利润和开发能力,以及新产品市场不确定性的限制。供应商参与分担制造商部分设计任务有一个最适当的比例,该比例与其自身边际利润及技术开发能力正相关,与制造商边际利润以及技术开发能力负相关,与产品市场成功概率负相关。     

The Effect of Cognitive Load on Decision Making with Graphically Displayed Uncertainty Information

An experiment examined the ability of five graphical displays to communicate uncertainty information when end users were under cognitive load (i.e., remembering an eight‐digit number). The extent to which people could accurately derive information from the graphs and the adequacy of decisions about optimal behaviors based on the graphs were assessed across eight scenarios in which probabilistic outcomes were described. Results indicated that the load manipulation did not have an overall effect on derivation of information from the graphs (i.e., mean and probability estimation) but did suppress the ability to optimize behavioral choices based on the graph. Cognitive load affected people's use of some graphical displays (basic probability distribution function) more than others. Overall, the research suggests that interpreting basic characteristics of uncertainty data is unharmed under conditions of limited cognitive resources, whereas more deliberative processing is negatively affected.     

不确定环境下研发投资决策的期权博弈模型

假定产出价格(随机需求)服从带跳的几何布朗运动来模拟研发项目中突发事件和市场的不确定性特点,拓展了用几何布朗运动模拟市场不确定性的双寡头期权博弈模型,同时也是在带跳的几何布朗运动的实物期权方法中融入了竞争策略互动的影响.敏感性分析结果表明随着这两类不确定性的增大,参与双方进入门槛值都变大.突发事件带来的不确定提高会使得参与双方的期权价值降低,但是市场的不确定性变大对于追随者来说等待是有价值的,对领先者的期权价值的影响却是不定的.     

产出随机及贸易信用下农产品供应链农户决策与政府补偿价值

针对由单一公司和受资金约束单一农户组成的农产品供应链中融资难问题,考虑政府补偿公司预付货款损失及农产品产出随机性,分别构建了贸易信用下农户有、无破产风险的供应链博弈模型,并对比分析农户最优决策,最后探讨了政府补偿对社会福利及供应链的价值创造。研究表明,灾害年投入产出率越小,农户有破产风险的供应链决策模式对农户越有利;政府补偿策略不仅可化解公司预付货款损失风险和创造更多社会福利,还能激励农户制定更合理生产投入量,并提升供应链效率,且在一定条件下还可达到集中决策下最优期望利润水平,为供应链创造更多价值。     

物流敏捷调运决策支持系统的研究

由于物流敏捷调运优化方案的生成过程,本质上是一个决策过程。针对各决策环节,提出了借鉴IDEF0方法描述的敏捷调运优化适度递阶控制模型,在此基础上构建了决策支持系统总体框架。针对该决策支持系统运行模块,提出了基于敏捷性准则的运行控制思想。进而,对该决策支持系统中的数据库系统、模型库与方法库进行了研究,利用递阶设计思想设计了数据库的三大体系,提出了以"剩余装载总量"极小化为目标的物流敏捷调运优化(0-1)_h模型和对分搜索算法。通过对搜索次数的估计来衡量(0-1)_h模型求解算法的计算复杂性,结果表明该算法效率较高。     

Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info‐Gap Methods

This study compares two widely used approaches for robustness analysis of decision problems: the info‐gap method originally developed by Ben‐Haim and the robust decision making (RDM) approach originally developed by Lempert, Popper, and Bankes. The study uses each approach to evaluate alternative paths for climate‐altering greenhouse gas emissions given the potential for nonlinear threshold responses in the climate system, significant uncertainty about such a threshold response and a variety of other key parameters, as well as the ability to learn about any threshold responses over time. Info‐gap and RDM share many similarities. Both represent uncertainty as sets of multiple plausible futures, and both seek to identify robust strategies whose performance is insensitive to uncertainties. Yet they also exhibit important differences, as they arrange their analyses in different orders, treat losses and gains in different ways, and take different approaches to imprecise probabilistic information. The study finds that the two approaches reach similar but not identical policy recommendations and that their differing attributes raise important questions about their appropriate roles in decision support applications. The comparison not only improves understanding of these specific methods, it also suggests some broader insights into robustness approaches and a framework for comparing them.     

Uncertainty about Probability: A Decision Analysis Perspective

The issue of how to think about "uncertainty about probability" is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the median as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, we find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group.