Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality?

I examine whether prenatal sex selection has substituted postnatal excess female mortality by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using country-level life table data. I decompose changes in child sex ratios into a ‘fertility’ component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a ‘mortality’ component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival. Although reductions in numbers of excess female deaths have accompanied increases in missing female births in all countries experiencing the emergence of prenatal sex selection, relative excess female mortality has persisted in some countries but not others. In South Korea, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, mortality reductions favouring girls accompanied increases in prenatal sex selection. In India, excess female mortality was much higher and largely stable as prenatal sex selection emerged, but slight reductions were seen in the 2000s. In China, although absolute measures showed reductions, relative excess female mortality persisted as prenatal sex selection increased.     

How Many More Missing Women? Excess Female Mortality and Prenatal Sex Selection, 1970–2050

Sex‐based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.     

The claim that China's fertility restrictions contributed to the use of prenatal sex selection: A sceptical reappraisal

Most observers assume that China's fertility restrictions contribute to the use of prenatal sex selection. I question the logic and evidence underlying that assumption. Experts often stress that China's low fertility is largely voluntary, and that fertility restrictions are an unneeded safety valve. Others claim that China's ‘1.5-child’ loophole, common throughout rural areas, reinforces son preference or intensifies prenatal sex discrimination by hardening fertility constraints. These claims defy logic upon closer examination. Moreover, almost two-thirds of the exceptional distortion of the sex ratio in 1.5-child areas results from excess underreporting of daughters and enforced sex-specific stopping. Prenatal sex selection may explain the remaining third but probably reflects the stronger rural son preference that led to the 1.5-child loophole itself. The recent surge in sex selection of first births that has perpetuated the distortions also seems unrelated to policy. Some son-preferring parents who formerly wanted two children may now genuinely want only one.     

Evidence mounts for sex-selective abortion in Asia

In Korea, China, and Taiwan--countries where son preference persists--the availability of prenatal screening techniques and induced abortion has produced an imbalance in the naturally occurring sex ratios of 104-107 male births for every 100 female births. Policy responses to sex-selective abortion were the focus of a 1994 International Symposium on Sex Preference for Children in the Rapidly Changing Demographic Dynamics in Asia sponsored by the United Nations Population Fund and the Government of the Republic of Korea. Modern technology (i.e., amniocentesis, ultrasound, and chorionic villi sampling) enables couples to control both family size and sex selection. According to data from the 1990 Korean Census, 80,000 female fetuses were aborted from 1986-90 as a result of son preference. In the late 1980s, the Governments of Korea, China, and India imposed bans on the use of medical technology for prenatal sex determination, but many observers maintain that regulations have served only to make the procedures clandestine and more expensive. To remedy the problems underlying sex-selective abortion, the Symposium recommended the following government actions: 1) implement policies and programs to diminish gender discrimination; 2) establish guidelines for the monitoring and regulation of prenatal testing; 3) utilize mass and folk media, interpersonal channels, and school curricula to promote gender equality; 4) strengthen the ethics curriculum of medical schools to address son preference; and 5) increase the capability of statistical and research organizations to collect gender-disaggregated data.     

Skewed Sex Ratios in India: “Physician, Heal Thyself”

Sex selection, a gender discrimination of the worst kind, is highly prevalent across all strata of Indian society. Physicians have a crucial role in this practice and implementation of the Indian Government’s Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques Act in 1996 to prevent the misuse of ultrasound techniques for the purpose of prenatal sex determination. Little is known about family preferences, let alone preferences among families of physicians. We investigated the sex ratios in 946 nuclear families with 1,624 children, for which either one or both parents were physicians. The overall child sex ratio was more skewed than the national average of 914. The conditional sex ratios decreased with increasing number of previous female births, and a previous birth of a daughter in the family was associated with a 38 % reduced likelihood of a subsequent female birth. The heavily skewed sex ratios in the families of physicians are indicative of a deeply rooted social malady that could pose a critical challenge in correcting the sex ratios in India.     

Child Underreporting,Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China

Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world’s highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a “1.5-child” policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China’s sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.     

High Sex Ratios at Birth in the Caucasus: Modern Technology to Satisfy Old Desires

During the 1990s, the sex ratio at birth increased considerably and simultaneously in the three independent Caucasian countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. At the end of the first decade of the twenty‐first century, levels remain abnormally high in Armenia and Azerbaijan (above 114 male births per 100 female births) and show erratic trends in Georgia. Analyzing data from demographic surveys carried out around 2005, we confirm the persistence of high sex ratios in these three countries and document significant differences in fertility intentions and behavior according to the sex of the previous child or children that constitute evidence of the practice of sex‐selective abortion. These countries combine societal features and medical systems that make this phenomenon possible: son preference in a context of low fertility and the possibility of prenatal sex selection given easy access to ultrasound screening and induced abortion. Why high sex ratios are observed only in these three countries of the sub‐region remains, however, an open question.     

Indirect evidence of the contribution of prenatal sex selection practices to the high sex ratio at birth in Vietnam

This paper reports indirect evidence that prenatal sex selection is a contributor to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam. The paper uses birth data from the Population Change Survey 2006 to assess the associations between sex ratio at birth and variables that predict increased opportunities to practise prenatal sex selection, including maternal knowledge of foetal sex before birth, the use of ultrasound for foetal sex determination, the gestation week when foetal sex was disclosed, and access to abortion services. The high sex ratio of most recent births was significantly associated with the use of ultrasound to determine the foetal sex in gestation weeks 12–22 and with access to family planning services that provide abortion. Prenatal sex selection in health facilities are likely to contribute to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam.     

An alternative formulation of the birth function in a two-sex model

The inconsistency in Lotka's stable population model (two different intrinsic growth rates for the two sexes) arises from the fact that he considers two equations (for male and female births), and not because his equation for one sex does not involve the other. Many authors in the past have erroneously put emphasis on the latter point and modified Lotka's equations for male and female births. Since sex ratio at birth is constant, two independent equations for male and female births cannot exist. The correct approach is to attempt to form an equation for all births. The author followed this approach in his earlier works on the problem, but his birth functions were formulated from axiomatic considerations. The present paper provides a new birth function which has an intuitively appealing physical interpretation, and for which the interaction between the sexes is empirically determined from the data.     

A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population Estimates: Component I (Net-Migration) vs Component III (Hamilton–Perry)

While the housing-unit method continues to be the preferred method nationwide for producing small-area population estimates, this procedures lacks a method for making age/sex-specific estimates. This paper reports evaluation research on implementation of component-based methods for estimating census tract populations with age/sex detail. Two alternatives are explored: (1) the Component I method relying upon estimates of births, deaths, and net-migration and (2) the Component III method relying solely upon 1990 and 2000 Census counts. From an April 1, 2000 base, each method is used to make estimates moving forward to an April 1, 2010 estimate that is compared to the results of the 2010 Census. The two methods are compared in terms of accuracy and bias using both absolute and algebraic mean and median percentage errors. Results are reviewed and discussed in light of their implications for applied demographers tasked with making small-area demographic estimates.     

Population growth rates in perfect contraceptive populations

Eventually, world population must cease to grow. In many countries attempts are made to decrease population growth by providing family planning services to all who want to prevent pregnancies. In this paper we use the concept ‘perfect contraceptive population’,¹ — a population in which no unwanted births occur — to derive estimates of the maximum contribution that prevention of unwanted births might make toward attaining a zero rate of natural increase in population.     

Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection? Evidence from the Chinese census

Recent increases in the (male/female) sex ratio at birth in eastern Asia are thought to be associated with a preference for sons and to result from parental sex selection. However, males are less likely to marry and to have offspring as the ratio increases, and that decreases the expected number of grandchildren. Using data from the 2000 Chinese census, we test whether the sex ratio in the marriage market has an effect on the gender of subsequent births and hence on the sex ratio of the birth cohort. The slow population growth caused by the Great Famine in the early 1960s and the quick recovery that followed produced major changes in the sex ratio for those of marriageable age two decades later. We estimate that an increase of 1 % in the number of marriageable males relative to females, the marriage market sex ratio, would decrease the probability of having a son by 0.02 percentage points. That implies that the Great Famine, which occurred around 1960, led to an increase in the early 1980s of 5.8 extra male births per 100 females.     

A problem of estimating a contingency table arising in demographic analysis

Abstract This note deals with a special problem of estimating a contingency table arising in demographic analysis. What we require are the estimates of the numbers of births and deaths in Malaya crossclassified by state and race for the years of the Japanese occcupation, 1942-45. For many reasons this period had an adverse effect on the Chinese and Indian Communities, and hence the two-fold result of a greater reduction in the number of births and a larger increase in the number of deaths in states with a smaller proportion of Malay population. The estimates are worked out by means of a technique which takes into consideration this actual demographic situation.     

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country’s population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China’s population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China’s population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.     

The imbalance of sex ratio at birth,and its causes and countermeasures in China

This news brief focuses on the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in China, its causes, and remedial efforts. A SRB has been evident since the 1980s. The SRB increased from 108.48 male/100 female births to 116.30 male/100 female births during 1981-94. A normal SRB in China during 1940-94 would have been 107 male/100 female births. The SRB rose every year after 1985, with the exception of 1988. Male births increased, while female births decreased. SRB declined with age. The sex ratio in 1991, was 112.3 for children aged 0-4 years, 108.38 for children aged 5-9 years, and 106.56 for children aged 10-14 years. SRB values were higher in more populous provinces and lower in less populous provinces. SRB values were lower in northwestern China than in southeastern China. SRB values of minorities were lower than the Han ethnic group. A high SRB will increase the proportion single in later years. In 1990, 7.86 million people aged 30-40 years were single, of whom 94.32% were males. The SRB is caused by second, third, or higher birth orders. In 1993, sex ratios were 105.60 for first births, 130.22 for second births, and 126.12 for third births. The imbalance is attributed to a preference for sons as inheritors of blood ties and as family physical laborers. The imbalance is due to strict birth control and people's refusal to report female births. There is a need to increase awareness of the consequences, to increase old-age pensions and social security, to increase women's status, and to prohibit sex determination of a fetus. The family structure should emphasize its consumptive capacity rather than its function as a production unit.     

已婚流动妇女的性生活及其影响因素实证研究

基于"流动人口的婚姻家庭问题研究"课题组收集的数据,描述当代已婚流动妇女的性生活状况及其与从未外出打工已婚女性和已婚流动男性的性生活水平差异,通过建立多视角、多因素的综合解释模型,对已婚流动妇女性生活的影响因素进行估计和检验。多元分析结果表明,年龄、受教育程度、月收入、家庭经济支配权、与配偶居住情况、打工当地朋友数等是已婚流动妇女性生活质量的主要影响因素。     

Five decades of missing females in China

This paper seeks to explain the dearth of females in the population of China in cohorts born from the late 1930s to the present. We demonstrate that in virtually all cohorts. the shortage of females in comparison with males is revealed when the cohort is first enumerated in a census. Subsequently it barely changes, an indication that female losses occur very early in life. Using the high-quality data from the censuses and fertility surveys in China, we show that many of the births of the girls missing in the censuses were not reported in the surveys because they died very young. The incidence of excess early female mortality (probably infanticide) declined precipitously in the Communist period, but not to zero. The recent escalation in the proportion of young females missing in China has been caused largely by rapidly escalating sex-selective abortion.     

Research note: imputing large group averages for missing data,using rural-urban continuum codes for density driven industry sectors

Understanding the effects and consequences of missing data imputation is vital to the ability to obtain meaningful and reliable statistics and coefficients in the examination of any quantitatively-based phenomena. Over time a series of sophisticated methods have been developed to handle the issue of missing data imputation however, these sophisticated methods may not always be appropriate or attainable. In these specific cases more traditional approaches to missing data imputation must be employed and driven by the research project, theoretical framework, and the data. In this research note we offer a brief account of one such instance, implementing a large-group mean imputation approach to handling missing data. The analysis is drawn from a much larger project and shows the effect of proper group selection in terms of mean imputation using a cross-validation approach based on the imputed data’s relation to known values. Ultimately, the results show that the use of Rural-Urban Continuum codes are superior to currently used group-means in the U.S., thus introducing a new, and more efficient, approach to the handling of missing data using group-mean imputation.     

An evaluation of the recent fertility changes in Afghanistan: a parity-specific analysis

Very limited studies exist on the demography of Afghanistan. Using the only national survey with complete birth history data, the 2010 Afghanistan Mortality Survey, this paper describes the recent fertility changes in the country from a parity-specific perspective. From 1995 to 2009, parity progression ratios, average birth intervals, sex ratio at birth by parity and synthetic lifetime average parity are successively examined. Results show that the progression to higher-order births started to decline in the early 2000s and was accompanied by childbearing postponement. The consistency of the parity analysis is assessed by looking at the sex ratio at birth by parity and comparing the synthetic lifetime average parity to fertility estimates computed from other datasets and/or estimation methods. While the sex ratio at birth indicates strong distortion, casting doubt on the ultimate fertility level, the consistency of the parity-based fertility estimates with other fertility estimates corroborates the fact that misreporting the sex of the child is mainly causing the imbalanced sex ratio at birth and is not significantly affecting the level of fertility. The SPPRs-based analysis provides solid evidence that Afghanistan is in the early stage of its fertility transition.     

Estimating a Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China

High ratios of males to females in China, which have historically concerned researchers (Sen 1990), have increased in the wake of China’s one-child policy, which began in 1979. Chinese policymakers are currently attempting to correct the imbalance in the sex ratio through initiatives that provide financial compensation to parents with daughters. Other scholars have advocated a relaxation of the one-child policy to allow more parents to have a son without engaging in sex selection. In this article, I present a model of fertility choice when parents have access to a sex-selection technology and face a mandated fertility limit. By exploiting variation in fines levied in China for unsanctioned births, I estimate the relative price of a son and daughter for mothers observed in China’s census data (1982–2000). I find that a couple’s first son is worth 1.42 years of income more than a first daughter, and the premium is highest among less-educated mothers and families engaged in agriculture. Simulations indicate that a subsidy of 1 year of income to families without a son would reduce the number of “missing girls” by 67% but impose an annual cost of 1.8% of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP). Alternatively, a three-child policy would reduce the number of “missing girls” by 56% but increase the fertility rate by 35%.