Proposition of a General Formula for Price Indices

In this article, we propose a general formula for aggregative price indices that satisfies most postulates coming from the axiomatic price index theory. We show that the ideal Fisher index, Laspeyres and Paasche formulas, and a lot of other indices are particular cases of the proposed formula. Moreover, using the general formula we can easily define new indices, that would satisfy given postulates. We also present an interesting result for the proposed formula.     

An asymptotic confidence interval for the process capability index Cpm

Abstract

The use of indices as an estimation tool of process capability is long-established among the statistical quality professionals. Numerous capability indices have been proposed in last few years. C_pm constitutes one of the most widely used capability indices and its estimation has attracted much interest. In this paper, we propose a new method for constructing an approximate confidence interval for the index C_pm. The proposed method is based on the asymptotic distribution of the index C_pm obtained by the Delta Method. Under some regularity conditions, the distribution of an estimator of the process capability index C_pm is asymptotically normal.     

Estimation of value-at-risk using single index quantile regression

ABSTRACT

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the best known and most heavily used measures of financial risk. In this paper, we introduce a non-iterative semiparametric model for VaR estimation called the single index quantile regression time series (SIQRTS) model. To test its performance, we give an application to four major US market indices: the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 2000 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite Index. Our results suggest that this method has a good finite sample performance and often outperforms a number of commonly used methods.     

An entropic structure in capability indices

Abstract

Analysis capability indices for symmetric process in normal case is obtained via maximum entropy approach of distribution function of the data. In view of it, we have perused on production processes to be in statistical control. Generally a process is capable based on capability indices when its reasonable index was more than a known threshold value. Thus by conditioning on indices, the most general distribution is found out whose parameters can be approximated by using the data of process. Also analysis via Kullback-Leibler information measure based on the above arguments is obtained in the last part of the paper.     

Weighted product index and its two-independent-sample comparison based on weighted sensitivity and specificity

Background: On the basis of statistical methods about index S (S = SEN × SPE), we develop a new weighted ways (weighted product index S_w) of combining sensitivity and specificity with user-defined weights. Methods: The new weighted product index S_w is defined as S_w = (SEN) (Youden 1950)^2w × (SPE) (Youden 1950) ^2(1?w) Results: For the large sample, the test statistics Z of two-independent-sample weighted product indices can either be a monotonous increasing/decreasing function or a no-monotonous function of weight w. Type I error of this statistics can be guaranteed close to the nominal level of 5%, which is more conservative than the weighted Youden index from simulation.     

A general function of axiomatic index numbers

Summary This paper describes an axiomatic approach to index number theory. A general bilaeral formula which generates a set of indices of prices and quantities is proposed. This formula is written as a geometric mean, weighted with logarithmic means of relative values, and includes all of those indices and related cofactors which satisfy the following axiomatic properties: strong identity, commensurability, linear homogeneity and associativity (or monotonicity). Moreover, two subsets of indices are identified: the first subset includes those which can be expressed either as geometric means or as expenditure ratios; the corresponding bounds are given by the Laspeyres' and Paasche's indices. The second subset also satisfies the desired properties of base and factor reversibility; in this case the bounds are given by Sato Vartia's and Fisher's indices. In addition it is shown that the intersection between the two subsets identifies a new bilateral ideal index which satisfies the axiomatic and reversibility properties (base and factor) and may also be written as an expenditure ratio. All other formulas, which do not belong to the family of the proposed indices, violate some of the axiomatic properties. For multilateral comparisons, a mixed system of direct and indirect indices which satisfies the transitivity condition is proposed.     

Approximation of the Fisher price index by using the Lloyd–Moulton index: Simulation study

The Lloyd–Moulton price index does not make use of current-period expenditure data and, as it is commonly known, it allows us to approximate superlative indices, in particular the Fisher price index. This is a very important property for the inflation measurement and the Consumer Price Index bias calculations. In this article, we verify the utility of the Lloyd–Moulton price index in the Fisher price index approximation. We propose a simple modification of that index which reduces the variation of the estimator of an unknown parameter in this index formula. We also examine the influence of the price volatility on the quality of estimation of the parameter from the Lloyd–Moulton formula.     

Approximation of the Fisher price index by using Lowe,Young, and AG Mean indices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) approximates changes in the costs of household consumption assuming the constant utility (COLI, Cost of Living Index). In practice, the Laspeyres price index is used to measure the CPI despite the fact that many economists consider the superlative indices to be the best approximation of COLI. The Fisher index is one of the superlative indices and additionally it satisfies most of tests from the axiomatic price index theory. Nevertheless, the Fisher price index makes use of current-period expenditure data and its usefulness in CPI measurement is limited. In this article, we verify the utility of using the Lowe, Young, and AG Mean indices for Fisher price index approximation. We confirm this utility in a simulation study and we provide an empirical proof.     

On Confidence Intervals for Process Capability Indices in a One-Way Random Model

In this article, we investigated the bootstrap calibrated generalized confidence limits for process capability indices C _pk for the one-way random effect model. Also, we derived Bissell's approximation formula for the lower confidence limit using Satterthwaite's method and calculated its coverage probabilities and expected values. Then we compared it with standard bootstrap (SB) method and generalized confidence interval method. The simulation results indicate that the confidence limit obtained offers satisfactory coverage probabilities. The proposed method is illustrated with the help of simulation studies and data sets.     

Measuring technological breadth and depth of patent documents using Rao’s Quadratic Entropy

ABSTRACT

In this article we propose indices for technological breadth and depth of patent documents. We conceptually compare and contrast several indices that have been used in the existing literature, explaining main limitations. Motivated by the drawbacks of those we demonstrate how Rao’s Quadratic Entropy, a statistical index used in ecology for measuring biodiversity, can be decomposed to separately measure technological breadth and depth. The properties of breadth and depth are then investigated using patents for business data processing. For the technological domains with the highest patenting activity, we show how the novel measures of technological breadth and depth can be used to rank the patenting entities by average breadth, and identify ones with inventions that on average exceed the domain-specific average depth. Practical implications of the proposed indices are also exemplified and discussed in the context of competitor analysis for entrepreneurial ventures in the area of network security for business data processing.     

A Similarity Measure Based on Species Proportions

ABSTRACT

There are several indices for measuring the similarity of two populations, including the ratio of the number of shared species to the number of distinct species (Jaccard's index) and the conditional probability of observing a shared species (Smith et al., 1996 Smith , W. , Solow , A. R. , Preston , P. E. ( 1996 ). An estimator of species overlap using a modified beta-binomial model. Biometrics 52 : 1472 – 1477 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, these indices only take into account the number of species and species proportions of shared species. In this article, we propose a new similarity index which includes the species proportions of both the shared and non shared species in each population, and also propose a Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPMLE) for this index. Bootstrap and delta methods are used to evaluate the standard errors of the NPMLE. Based on a loss function, we also compare a class of nonparametric estimators for the proposed index in various situations.     

Bayesian Estimation of the Two-Parameter Gamma Distribution

In this article, we present and discuss an original price index being a special case of a general formula for price indices. We show that the discussed formula satisfies most postulates coming from the axiomatic price index theory. We compare this index to other known and popular price indices in a simulation study.     

Estimation of the process incapability index

Greenwich and Jahr-Schaffrath (1995) introduced a new index C _pp a simple transformation of the index C _pm , which provides an uncontaminated separation between information concerning process accuracy and process precision. Under the assumption of normality, we first show that the estimators of C _pp proposed by Greenwich and Jahr-Schaffrath (1995) are UMVU estimators. We also show that for the inaccuracy index, the variance of the unbiased estimator is smaller than the mean squared error (MSE) of the natural (biased) estimator for n > 3. In addition, we obtain the r-th moment and the probability density function of these estimators.     

On a Process Capability Index for Asymmetric Specifications

Abstract

Among the process capability indices considered in the literature C _pm is one of the most widely used, despite the fact that its performance often becomes unsatisfactory in the case of processes with asymmetric specifications, i.e., processes whose target value is not located at the midpoint of the specification area. In this article, a new index that is a variant of C _pm , is introduced and shown to overcome this deficiency. In particular, the proposed index performs satisfactorily for processes with symmetric or asymmetric specifications. Moreover, the article compares the suggested index with the existing indices for asymmetric specifications, investigates the distributional properties of its estimator under the assumption of normality and deals with the assessment of confidence intervals using three bootstrap methods. The coverage achieved by each of these methods is investigated via simulation.     

An improved comorbidity summary score for measuring disease burden and predicting mortality with applications to two national cohorts

Abstract

Research involving administrative healthcare data to study patient outcomes requires the investigator to account for the patient’s disease burden in order to reduce the potential for biased results. Here we develop a comorbidity summary score based on variable importance measures derived from several statistical and machine learning methods and show it has superior predictive performance to the Elixhauser and Charlson indices when used to predict 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year mortality. We used two large Veterans Administration cohorts to develop and validate the summary score and compared predictive performance using the area under ROC curve (AUC) and the Brier score.     

Permutation Tests for Comparing Inequality Measures

ABSTRACT

Asymptotic and bootstrap tests for inequality measures are known to perform poorly in finite samples when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed. We propose Monte Carlo permutation and bootstrap methods for the problem of testing the equality of inequality measures between two samples. Results cover the Generalized Entropy class, which includes Theil’s index, the Atkinson class of indices, and the Gini index. We analyze finite-sample and asymptotic conditions for the validity of the proposed methods, and we introduce a convenient rescaling to improve finite-sample performance. Simulation results show that size correct inference can be obtained with our proposed methods despite heavy tails if the underlying distributions are sufficiently close in the upper tails. Substantial reduction in size distortion is achieved more generally. Studentized rescaled Monte Carlo permutation tests outperform the competing methods we consider in terms of power.     

Confidence Intervals for Conditional Tail Risk Measures in ARMA–GARCH Models

ABSTRACT

ARMA–GARCH models are widely used to model the conditional mean and conditional variance dynamics of returns on risky assets. Empirical results suggest heavy-tailed innovations with positive extreme value index for these models. Hence, one may use extreme value theory to estimate extreme quantiles of residuals. Using weak convergence of the weighted sequential tail empirical process of the residuals, we derive the limiting distribution of extreme conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) estimates for a wide range of extreme value index estimators. To construct confidence intervals, we propose to use self-normalization. This leads to improved coverage vis-à-vis the normal approximation, while delivering slightly wider confidence intervals. A data-driven choice of the number of upper order statistics in the estimation is suggested and shown to work well in simulations. An application to stock index returns documents the improvements of CVaR and CES forecasts.     

A note on the asymptotic distribution of the process capability index C pmk

Process capability indices have been widely used to evaluate the process performance to the continuous improvement of quality and productivity. The distribution of the estimator of the process capability index C _pmk is very complicated and the asymptotic distribution is proposed by Chen and Hsu [The asymptotic distribution of the processes capability index C _pmk , Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 24(5) (1995), pp. 1279–1291]. However, we found a critical error for the asymptotic distribution when the population mean is not equal to the midpoint of the specification limits. In this paper, a correct version of the asymptotic distribution is given. An asymptotic confidence interval of C _pmk by using the correct version of asymptotic distribution is proposed and the lower bound can be used to test if the process is capable. A simulation study of the coverage probability of the proposed confidence interval is shown to be satisfactory. The relation of six sigma technique and the index C _pmk is also discussed in this paper. An asymptotic testing procedure to determine if a process is capable based on the index of C _pmk is also given in this paper.