城市医生资源与新冠肺炎防控效率

本文利用非参数估计法考察了我国城市层面的新冠肺炎病情防控效率,讨论了医生资源对防控效率的影响。结果表明,城市疫情防控措施显著降低了每日新增病例,但存在明显地区异质性,城市医生资源差异是解释防控效率异质性的重要因素。医生资源对防控效率的影响具有非线性特征,在资源紧缺城市边际促进作用更大。包括病床和医院数量在内的医疗物质投入没有产生边际影响,表明医疗物质资源还未达到约束状态。进一步分析医生职业结构发现,临床医生的作用最为显著。地区应急响应启动越早,医生资源的作用越大,因此政府相关政策是医生资源作用的有力保障。新冠肺炎疫情一定程度上暴露了我国医生资源短板,需要多措并举有效提升城市医生资源供给。     

Reports of Conferences,Institutes, and Seminars

Abstract

This column covers sessions from the 2018 Charleston Library Conference, an informal annual gathering of librarians, publishers, electronic resource managers, consultants, and vendors of library materials in Charleston, South Carolina, in November. Topics include the impact of open access and open research, assisting faculty with locating and integrating these resources into their courses through partnerships and open applications, and managing gifts and donations with restricted resources.     

Remote Work in Library Technical Services: Connecting Historical Perspectives to Realities of the Developing COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The concept and practice of remote work in library technical services is not new, but the scale and speed of the transition to remote work for many libraries due to the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented. This column provides an overview of pre-pandemic literature on remote work in library technical services and briefly examines the history, planning, case studies, technology and equity concerns, challenges, and potential benefits of remote work. Initial connections are drawn between existing literature and the impact of the pandemic on remote work, and future directions for research and discussion are offered.     

国内外大学教材‘经济预测与时间序列’对比研究

随着教育部提倡全国普通高校使用国外教材,现在许多重点大学和一些普通高校纷纷在不同的学院、不同的专业、不同的年级上有选择地、有条件地实行“原版英文教材教学”试点。本文针对国内外大学教材中“经济预测与时间序列”方面的教材进行深入地对比分析研究,指出国内一些教材中普遍存在的问题与不足。     

《计量经济学》本科教材：问题与改革

《计量经济学》是高等学校经济类本科专业的8门核心课程之一。本文指出了当前教材 中普遍存在的问题并针对这些问题提出了《计量经济学》本科教材改革的若干建议。     

Potential impact of COVID-19 on ongoing clinical trials: a simulation study with the neurological Yale Global Tic Severity Scale based on the CANNA-TICS study

The COVID-19 pandemic has manifold impacts on clinical trials. In response, drug regulatory agencies and public health bodies have issued guidance on how to assess potential impacts on ongoing clinical trials and stress the importance of a risk-assessment as a pre-requisite for modifications to the clinical trial conduct. This article presents a simulation study to assess the impact on the power of an ongoing clinical trial without the need to unblind trial data and compromise trial integrity. In the context of the CANNA-TICS trial, investigating the effect of nabiximols on reducing the total tic score of the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS-TTS) in patients with chronic tic disorders and Tourette syndrome, the impact of the two COVID-19 related intercurrent events handled by a treatment policy strategy is investigated using a multiplicative and additive data generating model. The empirical power is examined for the analysis of the YGTSS-TTS as a continuous and dichotomized endpoint using analysis techniques adjusted and unadjusted for the occurrence of the intercurrent event. In the investigated scenarios, the simulation studies showed that substantial power losses are possible, potentially making sample size increases necessary to retain sufficient power. However, we were also able to identify scenarios with only limited loss of power. By adjusting for the occurrence of the intercurrent event, the power loss could be diminished to different degrees in most scenarios. In summary, the presented risk assessment approach may support decisions on trial modifications like sample size increases, while maintaining trial integrity.     

Reducing the Costs of Course Materials

The University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and University of Toronto (U of T) describe their respective library-driven programs to reduce the cost of course materials for students—the Affordable Course Materials Initiative (ACMI) at UCLA and the Zero-to-Low-Cost-Course Program (ZTLCC) at U of T. With the same goal of reducing costs by leveraging existing library resources, each library approaches that cost reduction differently. UCLA uses financial incentives to help drive faculty participation in reducing costs, whereas U of T works to reduce overlap in licensing costs while encouraging use of these already-paid-for resources. The following provides an overview of each program along with guidelines for implementing a similar program.     

Estimation of final standings in football competitions with a premature ending: the case of COVID-19

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - We study an alternative approach to determine the final league table in football competitions with a premature ending. For several countries, a premature...     

新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响分解与对策研究

新冠肺炎疫情;产业链效应;反弹效应;投入产出分析;可计算一般均衡模型     

基于vSEIdRm模型的人口迁移以及离汉交通管控对新冠肺炎疫情发展的影响分析

不同于传统( Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)SEIR流行病传播动力学模型,本文在近期研究的Varying Coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Diagnosed-Removed (vSEIdR)模型基础上加上人口迁徙(Migration) 模块,设计开发了vSEIdRm模型,该模型考虑了跨区域人口迁徙对疫情传播的影响,并允许流行病传播参数随时间变化。本文首先对人口迁移数据进行统计分析,建立其与各省新冠肺炎疫情发展的联系。之后,基于vSEIdRm模型估计了疫情初期各省份来自武汉的输入病例数,并定量刻画了离汉交通管控的效果。研究结果显示,离汉交通管控措施有效地减少了各省份的疫情规模。     

新课程改革中对课堂及其诸要素的认识

在新课程改革中,许多教师在教学过程中存在诸多的教学误区。在教学过程中,如何看待和改进课堂、教师、学生、教材等要素的作用和地位,显得相当重要。本文是我在多年的教育教学经验的基础上对课堂等诸要素一些看法和做法。     

European Federation of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry's position on access to clinical trial data

The European Federation of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (EFSPI) believes access to clinical trial data should be implemented in a way that supports good research, avoids misuse of such data, lies within the scope of the original informed consent and fully protects patient confidentiality. In principle, EFSPI supports responsible data sharing. EFSPI acknowledges it is in the interest of patients that their data are handled in a strictly confidential manner to avoid misuse under all possible circumstances. It is also in the interest of the altruistic nature of patients participating in trials that such data will be used for further development of science as much as possible applying good statistical principles. This paper summarises EFSPI's position on access to clinical trial data. The position was developed during the European Medicines Agency (EMA) advisory process and before the draft EMA policy on publication and access to clinical trial data was released for consultation; however, the EFSPI's position remains unchanged following the release of the draft policy. Finally, EFSPI supports a need for further guidance to be provided on important technical aspects relating to re‐analyses and additional analyses of clinical trial data, for example, multiplicity, meta‐analysis, subgroup analyses and publication bias. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution of the Stopping Time in Bayesian Sequential Sampling

The paper presents a method for computing the distribution of the stopping time for the Bayesian sequential one step look-ahead procedure with the proportion as parameter.     

A Note on the Estimation of Missing Values in Time Series

This paper derives an expression for the likelihood function of the parameters in an autoregressive-moving average model when some values are missing from the observed time series. The estimation of the missing values and their mean squared errors is discussed. Stationary as well as nonstationary models are considered.     

Tests for Multiple Peaks in the Spectra of Categorical Time Series

A Fisher's-type test for the significance of peaks in the spectra of categorical time series is developed. This test extends to peaks other than the maximum. The test was based on the Walsh–Fourier periodogram, which is more suitable for data which exhibit sharp jumps rather than smooth curves. The test is applied to a data set of neonatal sleep patterns, which have previously been shown to contain at least two clinically interesting periods.     

我国资源性产品定价机制研究

 自然资源是影响我国经济增长的重要因素,甚至是目前影响我国经济增长的瓶颈因素,因此科学地制定资源性产品价格,对合理调节资源生产和分配具有十分重要的意义。本课题试图从整体上研究资源性产品价格的构成和资源价格调节机制,选择石油、天然气、煤炭和水作为重点研究对象,为科学制定资源性产品价格提供决策参考。     

教育产出核算的难点透视

长期以来人们一直以服务对象“状态”的变化来作为教育成果的计量基础,但这种核算方法可能会导致产出核算的理论缺陷和数据失真。本文针对当前教育产出的测算及评价提出了几点初步的看法。     

煤炭资源开采中的生态环境经济损失及补偿研究

通过对CVM研究结论的比较讨论,认为基于CVM测算出的煤炭资源开采中的生态环境经济损失值偏小.为了全面计算煤炭资源开采中的生态环境经济损失值,提出将CVM与直接市场法和间接市场法联合使用,并计算出2010年榆林市煤炭资源开采的生态环境经济损失为208.4亿～209.11亿元.在此基础上,又对煤炭资源开采中的生态环境损失补偿问题进行研究,提出由煤炭资源开采企业和煤炭资源受益者共同承担煤炭资源开采中生态环境损失补偿的责任,并对各自应该分担的补偿水平进行量化.     

Keeping Time: An Analysis of Errors in the Measurement of Unemployment Duration

This study uses longitudinal microdata from the Current Population Survey to examine the consistency with which unemployment duration is reported. An estimate of measurement error is proposed and analyzed. A significant negative relationship is found between the initial month's unemployment duration and the reported change between surveys. On average, persons who begin spells of unemployment in the second month report durations greater than the actual time elapsed. Overall, the average duration of unemployment in this sample may be overstated by at least two weeks. A brief discussion of some implications for empirical labor market research concludes the article.     

中国义务教育阶段经费配置公平状况的实证研究

选取基尼系数作为测量工具,利用2003—2007年统计数据,分析中国31个省（市、区）义务教育阶段生均预算内教育事业费以及生均预算内公用经费配置的公平状况。研究发现：从省一级情况来讲,总的来说生均预算内教育事业费配置的公平状况要好于公用经费配置的公平状况;整体来讲,两个指标的基尼系数均呈逐年减小之势,说明近些年来中国各级政府尤其是中央政府在改善义务教育生均资源配置方面的努力初见成效。