An Extension of the Epsilon-Skew-Normal Distribution

This article is related with the probabilistic and statistical properties of an parametric extension of the so-called epsilon-skew-normal (ESN) distribution introduced by Mudholkar and Hutson (2000 Mudholkar , G. S. , Hutson , A. D. ( 2000 ). The epsilon-skew-normal distribution for analyzing near-normal data . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 83 : 291 – 309 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which considers an additional shape parameter in order to increase the flexibility of the ESN distribution. Also, this article concerns likelihood inference about the parameters of the new class. In particular, the information matrix of the maximum likelihood estimators is obtained, showing that it is non singular in the special normal case. Finally, the statistical methods are illustrated with two examples based on real datasets.     

Elementary renewal theorems for widely dependent random variables with applications to precise large deviations

Abstract

On the basis of Wang and Cheng (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 384 (2011) 597–606), this paper further investigates elementary renewal theorems for counting processes generated by random walks with widely orthant dependent increments. The obtained results improve the corresponding ones of the above-mentioned paper mainly in the sense of weakening the moment conditions on the positive parts of the increments. Meanwhile, a revised version of strong law of large numbers for random walks with widely orthant dependent increments is established, which improves Theorem 1.4 of Wang and Cheng (2011 Wang, Y., and D. Cheng. 2011. Basic renewal theorems for a random walk with widely dependent increments and their applications. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 384 (2):597–606. doi:10.1016/j.jmaa.2011.06.010.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) by enlarging the regions of dominating coefficients. Finally, by using the above results, some precise large deviation results for a nonstandard renewal risk model are established, in which the innovations are widely orthant dependent random variables with common heavy tails, and the inter-arrival times are also widely orthant dependent.     

Optimal nonparametric estimator of the area under ROC curve based on clustered data

Abstract

In diagnostic trials, clustered data are obtained when several subunits of the same patient are observed. Intracluster correlations need to be taken into account when analyzing such clustered data. A nonparametric method has been proposed by Obuchowski (1997 Obuchowski, N. A. 1997. Nonparametric analysis of clustered ROC curve data. Biometrics 53 (2):567–78.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to estimate the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve area (AUC) for such clustered data. However, Obuchowski’s estimator is not efficient as it gives equal weight to all pairwise rankings within and between cluster. In this paper, we propose a more efficient nonparametric AUC estimator with two sets of optimal weights. Simulation results show that the loss of efficiency of Obuchowski’s estimator for a single AUC or the AUC difference can be substantial when there is a moderate intracluster test correlation and the cluster size is large. The efficiency gain of our weighted AUC estimator for a single AUC or the AUC difference is further illustrated using the data from a study of screening tests for neonatal hearing.     

Testing economic “genetic pleiotropy” for Box-Cox linear model

Abstract

Genetic pleiotropy occurs when a single gene influences two or more seemingly unrelated phenotypic traits. It is significant to detect pleiotropy and understand its causes. However, most current statistical methods to discover pleiotropy mainly test the null hypothesis that none of the traits is associated with a variant, which departures from the null to test just one associated trait or k associated traits. Schaid et al. (2016 Schaid, D. J., X. Tong, B. Larrabee, R. B. Kennedy, G. A. Poland, and J. P. Sinnwell. 2016. Statistical methods for testing genetic pleiotropy. Genetics 204 (2):483–97. doi:10.1534/genetics.116.189308.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) first proposed a sequential testing framework to analyze pleiotropy based on a linear model and a multivariate normal distribution. In this paper, we analyze the Economic pleiotropy which occurs when an economic action or policy influences two or more economic phenomena. In this paper, we extend the linear model to Box-Cox transformation model and proposed a new decision method. It improves the efficiency of hypothesis test and controls the Type I error. We then apply the method using economic data to multivariate sectoral employments in response to governmental expenditures and provide a quantitative assessment and some insights of different impacts from economic policy.     

On Testing Sample Selection Bias Under the Multicollinearity Problem

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews and extends the literature on the finite sample behavior of tests for sample selection bias. Monte Carlo results show that, when the “multicollinearity problem” identified by Nawata (1993 Nawata , K. ( 1993 ). A note on the estimation of models with sample-selection biases . Economics Letters 42 : 15 – 24 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is severe, (i) the t-test based on the Heckman–Greene variance estimator can be unreliable, (ii) the Likelihood Ratio test remains powerful, and (iii) nonnormality can be interpreted as severe sample selection bias by Maximum Likelihood methods, leading to negative Wald statistics. We also confirm previous findings (Leung and Yu, 1996 Leung , S. F. , Yu , S. ( 1996 ). On the choice between sample selection and two-part models . Journal of Econometrics 72 : 197 – 229 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that the standard regression-based t-test (Heckman, 1979 Heckman , J. J. ( 1979 ). Sample selection bias as a specification error . Econometrica 47 : 153 – 161 . [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the asymptotically efficient Lagrange Multiplier test (Melino, 1982 Melino , A. ( 1982 ). Testing for sample selection bias . Review of Economic Studies 49 : 151 – 153 . [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), are robust to nonnormality but have very little power.     

Survival analysis for a new compounded bivariate failure time distribution in shock and competing risk models via an EM algorithm

Abstract

In this paper, two bivariate models based on the proposed methods of Marshall and Olkin are introduced. In the first model, the new bivariate distribution is presented based on the proposed method of Marshall and Olkin (1967 Marshall, A. W., and I. Olkin. 1967. A multivariate exponential distribution. Journal of the American Statistical Association 62 (317):30–44. doi: 10.2307/2282907.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) which has natural interpretations, and it can be applied in fatal shock models or in competing risks models. In the second model, the proposed method of Marshall and Olkin (1997 Marshall, A. W., and I. Olkin. 1997. A new method of adding a parameter to a family of distributions with application to the exponential and weibull families. Biometrika 84 (3):641–52. doi: 10.1093/biomet/84.3.641.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is generalized to bivariate case and a new bivariate distribution is introduced. We call these new distributions as the bivariate Gompertz (BGP) distribution and bivariate Gompertz-geometric (BGPG) distribution, respectively. Moreover, the BGP model can be obtained as a special case of the BGPG model. Then, we present various properties of the new bivariate models. In this regard, the joint and conditional density functions, the joint cumulative distribution function can be obtained in compact forms. Also, the aging properties and the bivariate hazard gradient are discussed. This model has five unknown parameters and the maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in explicit form. We propose to use the EM algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters, and it is computationally quite tractable. Also, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Finally, we analyze three real data sets for illustrative purposes.     

A Broad Class of Partially Specified Autoregressions on Multi-Casting Data

Extending the bifurcating autoregressive (BAR) process (cf. Cowan and Staudte, 1986 Cowan , R. , Staudte , R. G. ( 1986 ). The bifurcating autoregression model in cell lineage studies . Biometrics 42 : 769 – 783 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to multi-casting (multi-splitting) data, Hwang and Choi (2009 Hwang , S. Y. , Choi , M. S. ( 2009 ). Modeling and large sample estimation for multi-casting autoregression . Statist. Prob. Lett. 79 : 1943 – 1950 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced multi-casting autoregression (MCAR, for short) defined on multi-casting tree structured data. This article is concerned with the case when the MCAR model is partially specified only through conditional mean and variance without directly imposing autoregressive (AR) structure. The resulting class of models will be referred to as P-MCAR (partially specified MCAR). The P-MCAR considerably enlarges the class of multi-casting models including (as special cases) MCAR, random coefficient MCAR, conditionally heteroscedastic multi-casting models and binomial-thinning processes. Moment structures for this broad P-MCAR class are investigated. Least squares (LS) estimation method is discussed and asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) of the generalized-LS over ordinary-LS is obtained in a closed form. A simulation study is conducted to illustrate results.     

Complete integral convergence for arrays of row-wise extended independent random variables under Sub-linear expectations

Abstract

In this paper, we establish the complete convergence and complete integral convergence for arrays of row-wise extended independent random variables under sub-linear expectation space with some conditions. At the same time we extend some complete convergence and complete integral convergence theorems from the classical probability space to the sub-linear expectation space. The results generalize corresponding results obtained by Wu et al. (2017 Zhang, L. X. 2016b. Exponential inequalities under the sub-linear expectations with applications to laws of the iterated logarithm. Science China Mathematics 59 (12):2503–26. doi: 10.1007/s11425-016-0079-1.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

The exponential distribution analog of the Grubbs–Weaver method

Abstract

Grubbs and Weaver (1947 Grubbs, F. E., and C. L. Weaver. 1947. The best unbiased estimate of population standard deviation based on group ranges. Journal of the American Statistical Association 42 (238):224–41. doi: 10.2307/2280652.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggest a minimum-variance unbiased estimator for the population standard deviation of a normal random variable, where a random sample is drawn and a weighted sum of the ranges of subsamples is calculated. The optimal choice involves using as many subsamples of size eight as possible. They verified their results numerically for samples of size up to 100, and conjectured that their “rule of eights” is valid for all sample sizes. Here we examine the analogous problem where the underlying distribution is exponential and find that a “rule of fours” yields optimality and prove the result rigorously.     

Covariate-Adjusted Partially Linear Regression Models

Motivated by covariate-adjusted regression (CAR) proposed by Sentürk and Müller (2005 Sentürk , D. , Müller , H. G. ( 2005 ). Covariate-adjusted regression . Biometrika 92 : 75 – 89 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and an application problem, in this article we introduce and investigate a covariate-adjusted partially linear regression model (CAPLM), in which both response and predictor vector can only be observed after being distorted by some multiplicative factors, and an additional variable such as age or period is taken into account. Although our model seems to be a special case of covariate-adjusted varying coefficient model (CAVCM) given by Sentürk (2006 Sentürk , D. ( 2006 ). Covariate-adjusted varying coefficient models . Biostatistics 7 : 235 – 251 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the data types of CAPLM and CAVCM are basically different and then the methods for inferring the two models are different. In this article, the estimate method motivated by Cui et al. (2008 Cui , X. , Guo , W. S. , Lin , L. , Zhu , L. X. ( 2008 ). Covariate-adjusted nonlinear regression . Ann. Statist. 37 : 1839 – 1870 . [Google Scholar]) is employed to infer the new model. Furthermore, under some mild conditions, the asymptotic normality of estimator for the parametric component is obtained. Combined with the consistent estimate of asymptotic covariance, we obtain confidence intervals for the regression coefficients. Also, some simulations and a real data analysis are made to illustrate the new model and methods.     

Semiparametric Efficient Distribution Free Estimation of Panel Models

This article generalizes results from Park et al. (1998 Park , B. U. , Sickles , R. C. , Simar , L. ( 1998 ). Stochastic frontiers: a semiparametric approach . J. Econometrics 84 : 273 – 301 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Adams et al. (1999 Adams , R. M. , Berger , A. N. , Sickles , R. C. ( 1999 ). Semiparametric approaches to stochastic panel frontiers with applications in the banking industry . J. Bus. Econ. Statist. 17 : 349 – 358 .[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) on semiparametric efficient estimation of panel models. The form of semiparametric efficient estimators depends on the statistical assumptions imposed. Normality assumptions on the transitory error are sometimes inappropriate. We relax the normality assumption used in the articles above to derive more general semiparametric efficient estimators. These estimators are illustrated in a Monte Carlo simulation and an analysis of banking productivity.     

Second-Order Covariance Matrix Formula for Heteroskedastic Generalized Linear Models

For the first time, we provide a matrix formula for second-order covariances of maximum likelihood estimates in heteroskedastic generalized linear models, thus generalizing the results of Cordeiro (2004 Cordeiro , G. M. ( 2004 ). Second-order covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimates in generalized linear models . Statist. Probab. Lett. 66 : 153 – 160 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Cordeiro et al. (2006 Cordeiro , G. M. , Barroso , L. P. , Botter , D. A. (2006). Covariance matrix formula for generalized linear models with unknown dispersion. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 35:113–120.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) related to the generalized linear models with known and unknown dispersion parameter, respectively. The covariance matrix formula does not involve cumulants of log-likelihood derivatives and can be easily obtained using simple matrix operations. We apply our main result to a simple model. Some simulations show that the second-order covariances can be quite pronounced in small to moderate samples. The usual covariances of the maximum likelihood estimates can be corrected by these second-order covariances.     

Testing Parameter Constancy in Unit Root Autoregressive Models Against Multiple Continuous Structural Changes

This article considers tests for logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) models accommodating multiple time dependent transitions between regimes when the data generating process is a random walk. The asymptotic null distributions of the tests, in contrast to the standard results in Lin and Teräsvirta (1994 Lin , C. F. J. , Teräsvirta , T. ( 1994 ). Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change . Journal of Econometrics 62 : 211 – 228 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), are nonstandard. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that the tests have modest size distortions and satisfactory power against LSTAR models with multiple smooth breaks. The tests are applied to Swedish unemployment rates and the hysteresis hypothesis is over-turned in favour of an LSTAR model with two transitions between extreme regimes.     

On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study

This article presents results concerning the performance of both single equation and system panel cointegration tests and estimators. The study considers the tests developed in Pedroni (1999 Pedroni , P. ( 1999 ). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 : 653 – 670 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2004 Pedroni , P. ( 2004 ). Panel cointegration. Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis . Econometric Theory 20 : 597 – 625 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Westerlund (2005 Westerlund , J. ( 2005 ). New simple tests for panel cointegration . Econometric Reviews 24 : 297 – 316 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Larsson et al. (2001 Larsson , R. , Lyhagen , J. , Löthgren , M. ( 2001 ). Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels . Econometrics Journal 4 : 109 – 142 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), and Breitung (2005 Breitung , J. ( 2005 ). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data . Econometric Reviews 24 : 151 – 173 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the estimators developed in Phillips and Moon (1999 Phillips , P. C. B. , Moon , H. R. ( 1999 ). Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data . Econometrica 67 : 1057 – 1111 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Pedroni (2000 Pedroni , P. ( 2000 ). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels . In: Baltagi , B. H. , ed. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels . Amsterdam : Elsevier , pp. 93 – 130 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Kao and Chiang (2000 Kao , C. , Chiang , M.-H. ( 2000 ). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data . In: Baltagi , B. H. , ed. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels . Amsterdam : Elsevier , pp. 179 – 222 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Mark and Sul (2003 Mark , N. C. , Sul , D. ( 2003 ). Cointegration vector estimation by panel dynamic OLS and long-run money demand . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65 : 655 – 680 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Pedroni (2001 Pedroni , P. ( 2001 ). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels . Review of Economics and Statistics 83 : 1371 – 1375 . [Google Scholar]), and Breitung (2005 Breitung , J. ( 2005 ). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data . Econometric Reviews 24 : 151 – 173 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We study the impact of stable autoregressive roots approaching the unit circle, of I(2) components, of short-run cross-sectional correlation and of cross-unit cointegration on the performance of the tests and estimators. The data are simulated from three-dimensional individual specific VAR systems with cointegrating ranks varying from zero to two for fourteen different panel dimensions. The usual specifications of deterministic components are considered.     

Skew-Normal ARMA Models with Nonlinear Heteroscedastic Predictors

Multivariate skew-normal (SN) distributions (Azzalini and Dalla Valle, 1996 Azzalini , A. , Dalla Valle , A. ( 1996 ). The multivariate skew-normal distribution . Biometrika 83 : 715 – 726 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) enjoy some of the useful properties of normal distributions, have nonlinear heteroscedastic predictors but lack the closure property of normal distributions (the sum of independent SN random variables is not SN). Recently, there has been a proliferation of classes of SN distributions with certain closure properties, one of the most promising being the closed skew-normal (CSN) distributions of González-Farías et al. (2004 González-Farías , G. , Dominguez-Molina , J. A. , Gupta , A. K. ( 2004 ). Additive properties of skew-normal random vectors . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 126 : 521 – 534 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We study the construction of stationary SN ARMA models for colored SN noise and show that their finite-dimensional distributions are skew-normal, seldom strictly stationary and their covariance functions differ from their normal ARMA counterparts in that they do not converge to zero for large lags. The situation is better for ARMA models driven by CSN noise, but at the additional cost of considerable computational complexity and a less explicit skewness parameter. In view of these results, the widespread use of such classes of SN distributions in the framework of ARMA models seem doubtful.     

Relations for Moments of Progressively Type-II Censored Order Statistics from Log-Logistic Distribution with Applications to Inference

In this article, we establish several recurrence relations for the single and product moments of progressively Type-II right censored order statistics from a log-logistic distribution. The use of these relations in a systematic recursive manner would enable the computation of all the means, variances and covariances of progressively Type-II right censored order statistics from the log-logistic distribution for all sample sizes n, effective sample sizes m, and all progressive censoring schemes (R ₁,…, R _m ). The results established here generalize the corresponding results for the usual order statistics due to Balakrishnan and Malik (1987 Balakrishnan , N. , Malik , H. J. ( 1987 ). Moments of order statistics from truncated log-logistic distribution . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 17 : 251 – 267 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Balakrishnan et al. (1987 Balakrishnan , N. , Malik , H. J. , Puthenpura , S. ( 1987 ). Best linear unbiased estimation of location and scale parameters of the log-logistic distribution . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 16 : 3477 – 3495 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The moments so determined are then utilized to derive best linear unbiased estimators for the scale- and location-scale log-logistic distributions. A comparison of these estimates with the maximum likelihood estimates is made through Monte Carlo simulation. The best linear unbiased predictors of progressively censored failure times is then discussed briefly. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

A Nonparametric Test for Symmetry Based on Freeman and Halton's Ideas on Contingency Tables

In this article, we propose a nonparametric method to test for symmetry in bivariate data. By using the extension of Fisher's exact treatment for 2 × 2 contingency tables proposed by Freeman and Halton (1951 Freeman , G. H. , Halton , J. H. ( 1951 ). Note on an exact treatment of contingency tables, goodness of fit and other problems of significance . Biometrika 38 : 141 – 149 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), we can test the hypothesis of equal distribution for two samples of integer valued variables. Then, by counting the number of observations belonging to each cell of a symmetric, appropriately built grid, we can produce the two samples of integers required to use this test for equal distribution. The resulting test for symmetry is potentially extendible to higher dimensions. A simulation study is performed to compare with some known tests (Bowker, 1948 Bowker , A. H. ( 1948 ). A test for symmetry in contingency tables . Journal of the American Statistical Association 43 : 572 – 574 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Hollander, 1971 Hollander , M. ( 1971 ). A nonparametric test for bivariate symmetry . Biometrika 58-1 : 203 – 212 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; and its improvement given in Krampe and Kuhnt, 2007 Krampe , A. , Kuhnt , S. ( 2007 ). Bowker's test for symmetry and modifications within the algebraic framework . Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 51 : 4124 – 4142 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Our proposal represents a competitive option as a test for symmetry.