M1和M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性研究

 M1、M2均符合可测性要求。稳定性检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,M1比M2更具可控性。Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析结果和基于M1、M2相对增长速度的分析结果表明,M1与货币政策最终目标的相关性好于M2。因此,我国仍应将M1作为货币政策中介目标,将M2作为观测目标,并要加强对M1的相对增长速度的调控。     

More Than Things

Abstract

The often invisible labor of serials, technical services, metadata, and electronic resources workers sits in the space between required and preferred, assessment and surveillance. Although libraries and information workers did not explicitly create the systems many of us live in, we are responsible for their everyday functioning. In many ways the narratives from technical services to the library are centered in objects: item counts, COUNTER stats, door counts, discovery, and other transactional data. And yet, we are stewards and maintainers, innovators and storytellers of the countless ways these objects are experienced. How can we help our colleagues understand the outreach component of this work? How do we responsibly confront power in our systems—which often miscalculates the necessity of care in favor of the shiny? What does it mean to honor expertise behind the scenes, and how might we gain agency in our systems once more?     

Managing a Comprehensive Cost-per-Use Project in a Large Academic Library

Abstract

This article reports the findings of a study to evaluate title-level cost per use (CPU) for most recurring resources at The University of Alabama Libraries. The study relied on cost and usage data from FY2016. The purpose of the project was to identify titles for cancellation and to establish CPU for most titles ordered individually and those within packages for use in future contract negotiations. The analysis began with a list of all recurring titles having a cost of $1,000 or more. The review involved 1,035 titles with an initial objective to highlight all titles with a CPU of $200 or more. Titles exceeding this CPU threshold received additional review, with several identified for cancellation. This article presents the findings and provides an overview of the process used to collect CPU on a large scale. The article outlines some of the challenges faced by libraries when trying to align data that are stored in various silos and the limitations for various platforms and software used when collecting CPU data. The findings from this study formed the basis for a LibGuide developed and used to raise awareness of the need for cancellations. The data also assisted with future contract negotiations.     

Serials Spoken Here - Reports of Conferences,Institutes, and Seminars

Abstract

This column includes reports on sessions from the American Library Association Midwinter Conference 2019, with a report on how libraries can be part of a shared community with developers and users through the use of future of libraries, is open (FOLIO) library services platform and a report reflecting on future technological developments. Additionally, conference reports from the 14th Annual Electronic Resources & Libraries Conference, which includes reports on implementing troubleshooting training programs for public services staff and using budget cuts as an opportunity to generate goodwill. The remaining reports are from American Library Association Annual Conference 2019, which includes a report about the parallels between managing campaigns and managing an integrated library system (ILS) migration, how to improve a collection development plan with resources about Cheyenne and Arapaho people, and an exploration of the challenges of hosting student and faculty journals.     

Serials Clutter in Online Catalogs

Abstract

Finding and deciphering serials records in online catalogs is a challenge to many library users. To understand and analyze these challenges, the author conducted searches for scientific journal titles in the online catalogs of Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC) libraries. The first part of the study measures the difficulty of retrieving serial records from online catalogs comparing one-word versus multiple-word titles. The second part analyzes displays for complexity by measuring the length of the complete record and the length of the holdings statements. These data show the complexity of displays and indicate the potential confusion that these displays may induce in library users.     

Advances in Librarianship,Vol. 28

Abstract

This quarter’s column reports on sessions from the Charleston Conference, held in Charleston, SC, November 6–10, 2017.     

Two-Tailed p-Values and Coherent Measures of Evidence

ABSTRACT

In a test of significance, it is common practice to report the p-value as one way of summarizing the incompatibility between a set of data and a proposed model for the data constructed under a set of assumptions together with a null hypothesis. However, the p-value does have some flaws, one being in general its definition for two-sided tests and a related serious logical one of incoherence, in its interpretation as a statistical measure of evidence for its respective null hypothesis. We shall address these two issues in this article.     

Using EZproxy and Google Analytics to Evaluate Electronic Serials Usage

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the study is to evaluate electronic usage statistics for Belk Library at Elon University. The Electronic Resources Office (ERO) collects usage data for all serials—both print and electronic—, ebooks, and electronic databases. This study used ezPAARSE and Google Analytics to analyze the data from our website, and we will use these data to compare our vendor statistics to get a more complete picture of how the library's electronic resources are being used.     

The Democratization of Data Science Education

Abstract

Over the last three decades, data have become ubiquitous and cheap. This transition has accelerated over the last five years and training in statistics, machine learning, and data analysis has struggled to keep up. In April 2014, we launched a program of nine courses, the Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization, which has now had more than 4 million enrollments over the past five years. Here, the program is described and compared to standard data science curricula as they were organized in 2014 and 2015. We show that novel pedagogical and administrative decisions introduced in our program are now standard in online data science programs. The impact of the Data Science Specialization on data science education in the U.S. is also discussed. Finally, we conclude with some thoughts about the future of data science education in a data democratized world.     

基于实物量数据的文化产业增加值核算模型研究

 中国服务业核算相对滞后,但服务业发展的地位却越来越重要,全社会对服务业统计核算的数据需求和质量要求非常迫切。更为突出的是,文化产业等一批新兴现代服务业,在企业基层单位的统计核算数据非常薄弱情况下,如果沿袭常规的国民经济核算方法将会产生许多问题,严重影响核算的数据质量。如何改革与发展我国的服务业增加值的统计核算,本文提出一种新的思路和探索,即以我国文化产业增加值核算为例,引入现代数理统计模型方法,基于相对较好的实物量数据对产业增加值等重要的价值量数据进行模型推算。     

《货币与金融统计编制指南(CGMFS2008)》的比较与思考

 2000年货币与金融统计领域的第一部国际标准《货币与金融统计手册（2000）》出台,时隔八年之后,国际货币基金组织又颁布了更具操作性的《货币与金融统计编制指南（2008）》。通过新旧两个版本的比较,本文对总体框架与主要内容的变化进行了述评,进而结合中国实际提出了加强研究并做好准备的建议。     

Serials Spoken Here–Reports of Conferences,Institutes and Seminars

ABSTRACT

This quarter's column offers a report from the Acquisitions Institute at Timberline Lodge, held May 14–17, 2016, in Timberline Lodge, Oregon, and also provides coverage of multiple sessions from the Kraemer Copyright Conference, held June 6–7, 2016, in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Some reports are collected, as well, from the NASIG Annual Conference, held June 9–12, 2016, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and the American Library Association (ALA) Annual Conference, held June 23–28, 2016, in Orlando, Florida. Lastly, there is a report from the International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions (IFLA) World Library and Information Congress, held August 13–19, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. Topics covered include open access, linked data, copyright, text mining, e-resource management, and digitization.     

Data-Informed Ebook Discovery: An Analytical Approach to the User Experience

ABSTRACT

This article reports on an effort to better understand the discoverability of ebook collections at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC-CH). Library staff analyzed titles in nine ebook packages across disciplines and conducted a two-pronged analysis of how discoverable titles in these collections were, both in Summon Discovery Service and the online catalog, and the quality of what could be discovered about the ebooks with these tools. This study revealed that discoverability of ebooks is not equal across collections, and some collections require more work to make them discoverable in Summon and the catalog. Finally, the majority of titles were discovered in Summon, but the catalog still seems to be a better discovery engine for these ebooks.     

我国第三产业比重是否应该逐年上升？

 从长期看,第三产业比重应呈上升趋势。但是,某一时期（比如5年或更长一点）第三产业比重回落也是可能的。第三产业比重与最终使用结构有很大关系,从一定意义上讲,一个国家的最终使用结构决定着它的第三产业比重,这一关系可以借助投入产出模型进行量化。我国的最终使用结构比较特殊,一定程度地制约了我国第三产业比重的上升。     

数据挖掘方法应用于调查数据的抽样权重问题

 在将数据挖掘方法应用于抽样调查数据时,会遇到抽样权重的处理问题。本文提出采用放回的、与样本单元权数大小成比例的再抽样方法,简称PPWWR再抽样,来实现“事后”自加权设计。实现“事后”自加权设计后的子样本可忽略掉样本权数,直接采用常规的图示方法和数据挖掘算法进行分析。随后,基于2007中国公民科学素质调查贵州省数据,通过模拟分析讨论了PPWWR再抽样子样本的样本量问题,发现 是一个比较合适的样本量。这一结论可能为其它大型复杂抽样调查数据的数据挖掘实施问题提供借鉴。     

Lindley first-order autoregressive model with applications

ABSTRACT

A new stationary first-order autoregressive process with Lindley marginal distribution, denoted as LAR(1) is introduced. We derive the probability function for the innovation process. We consider many properties of this process, involving spectral density, some multi-step ahead conditional measures, run probabilities, stationary solution, uniqueness and ergodicity. We estimate the unknown parameters of the process using three methods of estimation and investigate properties of the estimators with some numerical results to illustrate them. Some applications of the process are discussed to two real data sets and it is shown that the LAR(1) model fits better than other known non Gaussian AR(1) models.     

PPP在中国的再检验 —基于ESTAR和ARB-STR模型

 本文基于人民币兑美元1994年4月以来的实际汇率月度数据,运用包含二次多项式时间趋势作为B-S效应代理变量的ESTAR模型和ARB-STR模型,研究PPP向其长期均衡调整的非线性均值回复特征。模型中的B-S效应表明实际均衡汇率在1994至2000年间持续贬值而在2001年后持续升值,并且这种升值趋势在近期已经趋缓。脉冲响应分析显示,冲击越大实际汇率的均值回复速度越快,实际汇率对正负向冲击的调整行为具有非对称性,人民币被低估时的均值回复速度要比被高估时更快;另外,相对于西方发达国家而言,由于我国汇率形成机制的不同和央行的频繁干预,致使外部冲击对DY实际汇率的影响效应更加持久,因而其半生命周期较长。最后,我们简要的阐述了相应的政策建议。     

外商直接投资对我国经济增长的效应

一、引言国际直接投资自产生之日起,就对一国的经济增长产生巨大影响。尤其是20世纪80年代以来,国际资本流动日趋活跃,直接投资成为主要的资本流动方式,也成为发展中国家获取外部资源的主要渠道。FDI对东道国尤其是发展中国家经济社会发展的影响是多渠道和多途径的,除了可以增加东道国的资本存量、提高投资质量以及缓解东道国的就业压力外,还有其技术的外溢效应。从本质上说,外商直接投资促进经济增长的机制属于资本推动,但又不是单纯的资本推动,还包括技术知识等国内资本所不具备的因素。所以,从某种程度上看,外商直接投资对经济增长的促…