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1.
We study optimal investment in self-protection of insured individuals when they face interdependencies in the form of potential
contamination from others. If individuals cannot coordinate their actions, then the positive externality of investing in self-protection
implies that, in equilibrium, individuals underinvest in self-protection. Limiting insurance coverage through deductibles
or selling “at-fault” insurance can partially internalize this externality and thereby improve individual and social welfare.
相似文献
Howard KunreutherEmail: |
2.
Many decisions require tradeoffs over time and in the presence of risk. To examine interactions between risk and intertemporal
effects we developed a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, subjects choose between payoffs that take place at different
points in time. We find that very few subjects are consistently risk averse or risk loving. Instead, we find that subjects
are less patient in the presence of risk. We also find that increased risk decreases subjects’ patience levels. However, we
do not find evidence that the effect of risk on the intertemporal decision depends on the length of the temporal delay.
相似文献
Lisa R. AndersonEmail: |
3.
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will
be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance
their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below
those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing
the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level.
Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.
相似文献
Richard ZeckhauserEmail: |
4.
Susan K. Laury Melayne Morgan McInnes J. Todd Swarthout 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,39(1):17-44
It is widely accepted that individuals tend to underinsure against low-probability, high-loss events relative to high-probability,
low-loss events. This conventional wisdom is based largely on field studies, as there is very little experimental evidence.
We reexamine this issue with an experiment that accounts for possible confounds in prior insurance experiments. Our results
are counter to the prior experimental evidence, as we observe subjects buying more insurance for lower-probability events
than for higher-probability events, given a constant expected loss and load factor. Insofar as underinsurance for catastrophic
risk is observed in the field, our results suggest that this can be attributed to factors other than only the relative probability
of the loss events.
相似文献
J. Todd SwarthoutEmail: |
5.
We implement a risk experiment that allows for judgment errors to investigate who makes mistakes and whether it matters. The
experiments are conducted with a random sample of the adult population in Rwanda, and data on financial decisions are collected.
We find a high proportion of inconsistent choices, with over 50% of the participants making at least one mistake. Importantly,
errors are informative. While risk aversion alone does not explain financial decisions, risk aversion and inconsistent choices
interact in significant and sensible ways. As we would expect, risk-averse individuals are more likely to belong to a savings
group and less likely to take out an informal loan. For those more likely to make mistakes, however, as they become more risk
averse, they are less likely to belong to a savings group and more likely to take up informal credit, suggesting that mistakes correlate with less than optimal behavior.
相似文献
Ragan Petrie (Corresponding author)Email: |
6.
Christian Gollier 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):107-127
We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability
distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover,
increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that
when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This
can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.
相似文献
Christian GollierEmail: |
7.
Research suggests an association between risk perception and risk-taking behavior in a variety of contexts. There is empirical
evidence that perceived risk is generally biased and that perception of risk influences behavior. Perception of risk can be
endogenous. It is therefore more appropriate to instrument risk perception. This article studies the perception of the risks
associated with impaired driving and the relation between predicted risk perception and driving behavior. We survey a sample
of license-holders, half of whom are drivers with a past conviction for impaired driving, the other half or control group
without such conviction. Predicted perceptual biases are shown to influence actual driving behavior.
相似文献
Georges DionneEmail: |
8.
Liqun Liu Andrew J. Rettenmaier Thomas R. Saving 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(2):159-172
Self-protection can be financed either by upfront payments or by conditional payments (or contingent fees) in which individuals
pay a provider only when a favorable outcome is realized. We find that, from the vantage point of a risk-averse individual,
conditional payments welfare dominate upfront payments in the state-independent framework, but upfront payments welfare dominate
conditional payments in the state-dependent framework. Moreover, more risk aversion always implies more self-protection under
conditional payments, for both state-independent and state-dependent frameworks. In contrast, it has been previously argued
that more risk aversion does not necessarily imply more self-protection under upfront payments.
相似文献
Liqun LiuEmail: |
9.
We present two theorems that yield necessary and sufficient conditions for first- and second-degree stochastic dominance deteriorations
of background risk to increase risk aversion with respect to foreground risk. We require that any change in a foreground risk
that is undesirable remains so after a background risk changes in a way that is either unfair, undesirable in the sense of
reducing expected utility, or undesirable in the sense of increasing expected marginal utility. Our results thus characterize
utility functions that are, respectively, vulnerable, proper, or standard with respect to changes in background risk.
相似文献
Arthur SnowEmail: |
10.
David M. Aadland Arthur J. Caplan Owen R. Phillips 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):149-178
A theoretical framework is presented to explain how agents respond to information under uncertainty in contingent valuation
surveys. Agents are provided with information signals and referendum prices as part of the elicitation process. Agents use
Bayesian updating to revise prior distributions. An information prompt is presented to reduce hypothetical bias. However,
we show the interaction between anchoring and the information prompt creates a systematic bias in willingness to pay. We test
our hypotheses in an experimental setting where agents are asked to make a hypothetical, voluntary contribution to a public
good. Experimental results are consistent with the model.
相似文献
David M. AadlandEmail: |
11.
Jinkwon Lee 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(1):19-41
We experimentally investigate the effect of an independent and exogenous background risk to initial wealth on subjects’ risk
attitudes and explore an appropriate incentive mechanism when identical or similar tasks are repeated in an experiment. Taking
a simple chance improving decision model under risk where the winning probabilities are negatively related to the potential
gain, we find that such a background risk tends to make risk-averse subjects behave more risk aversely. Furthermore, we find
that risk-averse subjects tend to show decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA), and that a random round payoff mechanism
(RRPM) would control the possible wealth effect. This suggests that RRPM would be a better incentive mechanism for an experiment
where repetition of a task is used.
相似文献
Jinkwon LeeEmail: |
12.
Mikael Svensson 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,39(1):65-85
This paper examines within-sample correlation between six different precautionary behaviors and stated willingness to pay
for a mortality risk reduction. The paper also shows estimates of the value of a statistical life based on seat belt and bicycle
helmet use as well as based on the stated willingness to pay for a risk reduction in traffic mortality. Contrary to the theoretical
expectations, no correlation is found between precautionary behavior and stated willingness to pay. One major explanation
is that females and the elderly take more precaution, but state a lower WTP for a risk reduction. The estimates of VSL from
the different approaches are $11.0 million, $5.0 million and $2.8 million from stated WTP, bicycle helmet use and seat belt
use, respectively.
相似文献
Mikael SvenssonEmail: |
13.
Dinky Daruvala 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(3):265-283
This paper reports results from an economic experiment where respondents are asked to make choices between risky outcomes
for themselves and others. We investigate whether subjects’ own risk preferences and gender stereotypes are reflected in the
predictions they make for the risk preferences of others and the way this occurs. When predicting other people’s risk preferences,
the respondents tend to use a combination of their own risk preferences and stereotypes. Moreover, when making risky choices
for others, the respondents generally use a combination of their own risk preferences and their average predicted risk preference
of the targeted group.
相似文献
Dinky DaruvalaEmail: |
14.
Valuing publicly sponsored research projects: Risks,scenario adjustments,and inattention 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Daniel R. Burghart Trudy Ann Cameron Geoffrey R. Gerdes 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):77-105
Survey-based choice scenarios used to value non-market public goods typically preclude any risk that the benefits described
may not be delivered. Our survey specifies explicit risks of (a) outright program failure and (b) program redundancy due to
possible private sector substitutes. Additionally, most analyses assume that survey subjects fully accept these scenarios
and that all provided information receives their complete attention. Our discounted expected utility model of choice accommodates
both these objective risks and the possibility of subjective scenario adjustment or selective inattention by respondents.
We then counterfactually simulate willingness-to-pay in the absence of these distortions.
相似文献
Trudy Ann CameronEmail: |
15.
W. Kip Viscusi 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(3):191-213
This paper uses a random utility model to examine stated preferences for the valuation of public risks of fatalities from
terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Traffic-related deaths serve as the common reference point in two series of pairwise
risk-risk tradeoff choices. Even after taking into account differences in respondent risk beliefs, the nationally representative
sample values the prevention of terrorism deaths almost twice as highly as preventing natural disaster deaths and at about
the same level as preventing deaths from traffic accidents, which pose greater personal risk. Education, seatbelt usage, political
preferences, and terrorism risk beliefs affect valuations in the expected manner.
相似文献
W. Kip ViscusiEmail: |
16.
The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi,India 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Soma Bhattacharya Anna Alberini Maureen L. Cropper 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(1):21-47
We interviewed commuters in Delhi, India, to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road
traffic accidents in three scenarios that mirror the circumstances under which traffic fatalities occur in Delhi. The WTP
responses are internally valid: WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks,
as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent drives a motorcycle. As a result, the value of a statistical life
(VSL) varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most highly-exposed individuals the VSL is about 150,000 Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP) dollars.
相似文献
Maureen L. CropperEmail: |
17.
Individuals’ perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is
compared with the objective risk of the respondents’ peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that
individuals’ risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been
found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For
overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger
than women’s.
相似文献
Henrik AnderssonEmail: |
18.
A reasonable level of risk aversion with respect to small gambles leads to a high, and absurd, level of risk aversion with
respect to large gambles. This was demonstrated by Rabin (Econometrica 68:1281–1292, 2000) for expected utility theory. Later, Safra and Segal (Econometrica, 2008) extended this result by showing that similar arguments apply to many non-expected utility theories, provided they are Gateaux
differentiable. In this paper we drop the differentiability assumption and by restricting attention to betweenness theories
we show that much weaker conditions are sufficient for the derivation of similar calibration results.
相似文献
Uzi Segal (Corresponding author)Email: |
19.
Anna Alberini Stefania Tonin Margherita Turvani Aline Chiabai 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(2):155-178
We use conjoint choice questions to investigate the preferences of people in four cities in Italy for income and future/permanent
mortality risk reductions delivered by contaminated site remediation policies. The VSL is €5.6 million for an immediate risk
reduction. If the risk reduction takes place 20 years from now, the implied VSL is €1.26 million. Respondents’ implicit discount
rate is 7%. The VSL depends on respondent characteristics, familiarity with contaminated sites, concern about the health effects
of exposure to toxicants, having a family member with cancer, perceived usefulness of public programs and beliefs about the
goals of government remediation programs.
相似文献
Anna AlberiniEmail: |
20.
Evaluation of projects that affect mortality risk usually assumes that risk changes are small and similar across individuals.
In reality, risks differ among individuals and information about risk heterogeneity determines the extent to which affected
lives are “statistical” or “identified” and influences the outcome of benefit-cost analysis (BCA). The effects of information
about risk heterogeneity on BCA depend on, inter alia, whether information concerns heterogeneity of baseline or change in
risk and whether valuation uses compensating or equivalent variation. BCA does not systematically favor identified over statistical
lives. We suggest some political factors that may explain the apparent public bias.
相似文献
Nicolas TreichEmail: |