我国新时期资本形成问题分析

本文以我国社会主义市场经济建设的新时期为背景 ,首先建立了兼顾积累与消费的二元目标最优经济增长模型和两部门最优投资比例模型 ,然后分析了我国资本形成面临的新情况和新问题 .根据模型和分析的结果 ,最终给出了相关的政策建议     

资本账户子项目开放的经济增长效应及中国应用

对于资本账户不同子项目开放顺序如何安排,是中国资本账户加速开放进程中亟待解决的议题。基于Guisinger和Brune(2017)所构造的资本账户开放分类数据库,本文采用线性门槛模型,在经济增长框架下分析全球112个国家(地区)在1970～2004年期间资本账户子项目开放的经验规律。研究发现,资本账户各子项目在初始人均GDP、制度质量上存在显著的门槛效应;外商直接投资流入、信贷的流出和流入、资本市场的流出的门槛值相对较低,可以较早的开放,而外商直接投资的流出、资本市场的流入的门槛值相对较高,开放的顺序靠后。房地产子项目的门槛值水平最高,意味着其最后开放。基于以上发现,本文进一步讨论中国的自贸区资本账户开放试点安排问题。     

对我国资本流动性的实证分析: 基于储蓄-投资关系

通过对我国1978-2005年储蓄率、投资率与资本流动性的关系进行实证分析得出的结论是我国资本具有一定的流动性,但是流动性偏弱;对我国储蓄率与投资率进行协整检验的结果表明,我国储蓄率与投资率之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;储蓄率与投资率的误差修正模型结果显示,当储蓄率与投资率的短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将通过反向修正以实现长期均衡.     

金融发展、技术创新与产业结构转型——多部门内生增长理论分析框架

本文将经典熊彼特内生增长模型扩展为包含金融中介部门的多部门熊彼特内生增长模型,通过数值模拟定量分析了金融发展对产业结构转型与经济增长的影响。数值结果表明,本文的扩展模型能够实现经典模型所不能实现的"卡尔多事实"与"库茨涅茨事实"相容,并能解释随产业结构转型出现的经济增长率下降现象。我们也发现金融发展能通过技术创新的"水平效应"与"结构效应"加速产业结构转型与促进经济增长。本文的研究表明金融体系在推动产业结构转型与促进经济增长方面发挥着不可估量的作用,这对于当前我国面临的产业结构转型具有重要的启示意义。     

我国(1996-2003年)货币政策低效性及原因分析

本文运用协整与格兰杰因果检验等时间序列分析方法,对中国1996-2003年间的货币政策有效性进行实证分析。结果表明,此段时间内我国的货币政策表现出低效性。论文基于实证结果,对货币政策低效性的原因进行了分析。     

2013夏季报告③ 变与不变:中国进入经济增长阶段转换期

中国经济正从长达30年的高速增长进入中速增长阶段,增长动力转换之间,原有竞争优势逐渐削弱、新竞争优势逐渐形成,原有平衡被打破,亟需重新寻找并建立新平衡,进而实现经济增长与潜在增长率相协调,与生产要素的供给能力和资源环境的承受能力相适应,并有效增强中国经济增长的内生动力。     

金融发展推动经济增长的理论模式及实证分析

本文基于内生经济增长的基本原理,通过引入金融行业的信用放大机制,推导了存在金融中介的情况下经济增长的均衡路径,刻画了经济增长、金融发展与资本投入之间的互动关系,研究表明,在稳态经济增长中,金融发展具有正向的作用,在非稳态经济增长中,只有保持适度的增量资本投入,金融发展对经济增长才具有推动作用.     

基于灰色关联度的我国资本市场与经济增长实证分析

以灰色关联度为工具,结合我国1998-2005年资本市场与经济增长数据,实证分析了资本市场与经济增长之间的相关关系.结论表明:资本市场的发展对经济增长的作用是显著的,但是目前,这种贡献作用主要来自于中长期信贷市场.     

“深康佳”中小股东维权:“庶民的胜利”抑或“百日维新”?——一个中小股东参与治理的分析框架

本文以我国资本市场上中小股东首次在董事会选举中击败控股股东并成功控制董事会的上市公司"深康佳"为例,探讨中小股东参与公司治理的动因、途径及局限性。主要发现和结论是:首先,互联网时代下,随着法制环境的改善和信息渠道的日益畅通,中小股东的维权意识更强,更容易了解和辨识控股股东对上市公司利益的侵害行为,也更可能借助网络等新媒体渠道沟通协作并联合制衡大股东;其次,股东网络投票制度降低了中小股东投票的成本,而累积投票制则大大提高了中小股东选派董事代表的可能性,成为中小股东制约控股股东、参与公司治理的有效渠道;最后,由于中小股东利益联盟脆弱、治理角色定位不当、短期偏好等局限,中小股东掌握控制权可能造成公司在治理和经营管理等方面的混乱。因此,我们需要客观全面地评价中小股东参与公司治理的积极意义及其局限性。本文提供了一个中小股东参与治理的完整分析框架,丰富了现有中小股东治理的相关文献,也对有关当局完善投资者保护制度尤其是股东投票机制有一定的借鉴意义。     

An Analytical Framework for Relating Dose, Risk, and Incidence: An Application to Occupational Tuberculosis Infection

An adverse health impact is often treated as a binary variable (response vs. no response), in which case the risk of response is defined as a monotonically increasing function R of the dose received D. For a population of size N , specifying the forms of R(D) and of the probability density function (pdf) for D allows determination of the pdf for risk, and computation of the mean and variance of the distribution of incidence, where the latter parameters are denoted E[S _N] and Var[ S _N], respectively. The distribution of S _N describes uncertainty in the future incidence value. Given variability in dose (and risk) among population members, the distribution of incidence is Poisson-binomial. However, depending on the value of E[S _N], the distribution of incidence is adequately approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter μ= E[S _N], or by a normal distribution with mean and variance equal to E[S _N] and Var[ S _N]. The general analytical framework is applied to occupational infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb). Tuberculosis is transmitted by inhalation of 1–5 μm particles carrying viable M. tb bacilli. Infection risk has traditionally been modeled by the expression: R(D) = 1 – exp(– D ), where D is the expected number of bacilli that deposit in the pulmonary region. This model assumes that the infectious dose is one bacillus. The beta pdf and the gamma pdf are shown to be reasonable and especially convenient forms for modeling the distribution of the expected cumulative dose across a large healthcare worker cohort. Use of the the analytical framework is illustrated by estimating the efficacy of different respiratory protective devices in reducing healthcare worker infection risk.     

顾客累积满意度的测量——基于动态顾客期望的解析模型

顾客的累积满意度是反映持续型服务产品绩效的重要指标.由于累积顾客满意是顾客各期感知的叠加,会涉及不同时段的顾客期望,因此,充分考虑期望的动态性是对它进行有效测量的关键.本研究以动态的顾客期望为基础,建立了一个测量累积满意度的解析模型.该模型将“期望差距范式”和“后悔/得意结构”相结合,并充分考虑了“适应性”和“社会比较”对顾客期望的动态性所造成的影响.本研究还将该模型运用于企业促销资源的优化分配.优化结果表明,整体符合脉冲式递增分布,并增大首期投入的资源配置方案可以使顾客在一定时期内的累积满意度达到最大.该结论与行为经济理论的一致性证明了本模型的良好效度.     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

Competing on Time: An Integrated Framework to Optimize Dynamic Time‐to‐Market and Production Decisions

This study develops a comprehensive framework to optimize new product introduction timing and subsequent production decisions faced by a component supplier. Prior to market entry, the supplier performs process design activities, which improve manufacturing yield and the chances of getting qualified for the customer's product. However, a long delay in market entry allows competitors to enter the market and pass the customer's qualification process before the supplier, reducing the supplier's share of the customer's business. After entering the market and if qualified, the supplier also needs to decide how much to produce for a finite planning horizon by considering several factors such as manufacturing yield and stochastic demand, both of which depend on the earlier time‐to‐market decision. To capture this dependency, we develop a sequential, nested, two‐stage decision framework to optimize the time‐to‐market and production decisions in relation to each other. We show that the supplier's optimal market entry and qualification timing decision need to be revised in real time based on the number of qualified competitors at the time of market‐entry decision. We establish the optimality of a threshold policy. Following this policy, at the beginning of each decision epoch, the supplier should optimally stop preparing for qualification and decide whether to enter the market if her order among qualified competitors exceeds a predetermined threshold. We also prove that the supplier's optimal production policy is a state‐dependent, base‐stock policy, which depends on the time‐to‐market and qualification decisions. The proposed framework also enables a firm to quantify how market conditions (such as price and competitor entry behavior) and operating conditions (such as the rate of learning and inventory/production‐related costs) affect time‐to‐market strategy and post‐entry production decisions.     

有关品牌文化内涵及影响因素的探索性研究

随着商品经济的发展和市场竞争的日益激烈,品牌文化的建设已经成为一个品牌成功的关键.本研究基于扎根理论对品牌文化的概念模型进行了探索性研究.通过文献分析和质的研究(32个深度访谈、四组焦点团体访谈)相结合的方法,本研究认为品牌文化包括企业文化、产品与服务、品牌个性和理念以及品牌归属四个维度.品牌文化以企业文化为基础,以产品和服务为载体,通过理念、个性、声誉等品牌精神的塑造,最终使得用户对品牌产生归属感.在这一过程中,品牌文化的形成受到企业营销手段、社会潮流和消费者的共同影响.本研究为品牌文化的定量研究打下了坚实的基础,对品牌研究和营销实践都具有重要意义.     

中国外商直接投资产业政策测量和有效性研究:1979~2003

本文以我国正式颁布的1987、1995、1997和2002年4次外资产业政策及其投资目录为研究对象,通过将投资目录按照标准的2位数产业代码进行归类,并对各种政策类别赋予权重,以此测量外资产业政策指数,在这基础上,再对外资产业政策的有效性进行研究。结果表明:在产业开放趋势上,我国对外资产业开放程度越来越大。在产业开放导向上,这4次外资产业政策表现出了一致性,集中反映了我国的引资目的,而且,在产业开放效果上,对于各种不同的产业分组,以及对于港澳台企业和外国企业,外资产业政策都能够有效地引导外资的产业流向。     

国际化背景下的中国本土企业战略:一个理论框架与应用分析

发展中经济体内的本土企业,在面对全球竞争环境时如何形成有效的战略,是尚未受到充分研究的战略管理领域。本文以中国为对象,通过三个相关论题来探究这个有意义的问题。首先,我们评估了中国这样的转型发展经济体内的外部环境条件。在此基础上,我们确定了4个关键战略要素——本土化、资源拓展性成长、战略差异化和竞争性协作,从而形成成功的本土企业战略。然后,我们用这个四元模型来分析中国高新技术公司这类面临竞争挑战的特殊的公司群体。最后,我们提出了战略复杂性的概念以开拓未来的研究。除了理论贡献之外,我们还提供了管理建议和政策指向。