Effect of forecast errors on rolling horizon master production schedule cost performance for various replanning intervals

Master production schedules are usually updated by the use of a rolling schedule. Previous studies on rolling schedules seem to form the consensus that frequent replanning of a master production schedule (MPS) can increase costs and schedule instability. Building on previous research on rolling schedules, this study addresses the impact of overestimation or underestimation of demand on the rolling horizon MPS cost performance for various replanning frequencies. The MPS model developed in this paper is based on actual data collected from a paint company. Results indicate that under both the forecast errors conditions investigated in this study, a two-replanning interval provided the best MPS cost performance for this company environment. However, results from the sensitivity analysis performed on the MPS model indicate that when the setup and inventory carrying costs are high, a 1-month replanning frequency (frequent replanning) seems more appropriate for both of the above forecast error scenarios.     

A Model for Master Production Scheduling in Uncertain Environments

In uncertain environments, the master production schedule (MPS) is usually developed using a rolling schedule. When utilizing a rolling schedule, the MPS is replanned periodically and a portion of the MPS is frozen in each planning cycle. The cost performance of a rolling schedule depends on three decisions: the choice of the replanning interval (R), which determines how often the MPS should be replanned; the choice of the frozen interval (F), which determines how many periods the MPS should be frozen in each planning cycle; and the choice of the forecast window (T), which is the time interval over which the MPS is determined using newly updated forecast data. This paper uses an analytical approach to study the master production scheduling process in uncertain environments without capacity constraints, where the MPS is developed using a rolling schedule. It focuses on the choices of F, R, and T for the MPS. A conceptual framework that includes all important MPS time intervals is described. The effects of F, R, and T on system costs, which include the forecast error, MPS change, setup, and inventory holding costs, are also explored. Finally, a mathematical model for the MPS is presented. This model approximates the average system cost as a function of F, R, T, and several environmental factors. It can be used to estimate the associated system costs for any combination of F, R, and T.     

Open Order Rescheduling in Job Shops with Demand Uncertainty: A Simulation Study

This paper addresses the problem of open order rescheduling in a job shop. Results are reported of experiments conducted in a simulation model of an 8-machine job shop. Four different order updating policies are examined. The due-date process is modeled to include several realistic features about the pattern of due-date variability. These features are parameterized and tested at several levels. Tardiness results indicate that open order rescheduling is beneficial only when allowances are loosely set. The results indicate that inventory performance is improved by order rescheduling, particularly in cases when due dates are revised to earlier times than originally forecast.     

RFID as an Enabler of Improved Manufacturing Performance*

The use of radio frequency identification (RFID) versus bar coding has been debated with little quantitative research about how to best use RFID's capabilities and when RFID is more advantageous. This article responds to that need by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing how RFID facilitates increased traceability and control in manufacturing, which in turn enables the use of more lot splitting and smaller lot sizes. We develop insights about operating policies (RFID vs. bar‐code tracking mechanisms, extent of lot splitting, and dispatching rules) and an operating condition (setup to processing time ratio) that affect the mean flow time and proportion of jobs tardy in a job shop. A simulation model is used to control factors in the experimental design and the output is evaluated using analysis of variance. The results show the following: (i) performance worsens when bar coding is used with extensive lot splitting, (ii) process changes such as extensive lot splitting may be required to justify RFID use instead of bar coding, (iii) the earliest operation due date dispatching rule offers an attractive alternative to other rules studied in previous lot splitting research, and (iv) the performance improvements with RFID and increased lot splitting are larger when the setup to processing time ratio is smaller. In a broader context, we fill a research void by quantitatively showing how RFID can be used as an advanced manufacturing technology that enables more factory automation and better performance along several dimensions. The article concludes by summarizing the results and identifying ideas for future research.     

Fundamental Insights into Part Family Scheduling: The Single Machine Case

A simulation study was conducted to investigate the behavior of family scheduling procedures in a dynamic dispatching environment. Two scheduling rules that incorporate setup avoidance mechanisms (FCFS-F and SPT-F) and two that do not (FCFS and SPT) were applied to a single machine. The scheduling environment was varied by controlling several important factors: the machine utilization, the number of setup configurations (families), the size of the family setup times relative to the job run times, the frequency by which members of the part families were released for processing, and the distribution of job interarrival and job run times. The major results from the study are the following: (1) The degree of stability in the system is the most influential factor with respect to mean flow time and flow time variance. Under low variance service and interarrival time distributions, the impact of scheduling rule selection is minor. (2) Conversely, under unstable scheduling situations, family scheduling procedures can have a substantial impact. (3) Clear interaction effects are noticed between all factors. The environment most conducive to family scheduling is characterized by high resource utilization, low setup-to-run time ratio, few part families, and erratic job arrivals. (4) Under conditions favorable to family scheduling, setup avoiding procedures can be used to increase output while at the same time reduce the mean and variance of flow time. (5) The shortest processing time rule (SPT) performs well with respect to mean flow time when relative setup times are small. Overall, however, SPT-F generates the lowest mean flow time while FCFS-F produces the lowest flow time variance. This study shows that scheduling procedures that consider setups in their structure can outperform rules that do not under many different operating conditions. However, the magnitude of this advantage very much depends on the scheduling environment. The results also highlight the fact that it may be better to try to reshape the manufacturing environment than worry about selecting the correct scheduling rule. If the environment cannot be stabilized, then the choice of a setup avoiding procedure, allocation of families to machines, and setup reduction become important issues.     

Evaluation of simple dispatching rules for dynamic single-machine earliness/tardiness problem

Abstract. This paper investigates the effects of four simple dispatching rules on just-in-time production related performance measures of mean and maximum absolute lateness. The rules used are modified due date (MDD), shortest processing time (SPT), earliest due date (EDD), and first in first out (FIFO). A single machine is used under three utilization levels. Due-dates are set according to total work content rule. The results indicate that each rule performs well under certain conditions. The MDD rule is the best one to minimize mean absolute lateness. The EDD and FIFO rules do well in minimizing the maximum absolute lateness. Economic interpretation of these performance measures are also discussed.     

A joint economic lot size model for raw material ordering,manufacturing setup,and finished goods delivering

In this research we consider a single-manufacturer single-buyer supply chain problem where the manufacturer orders raw materials from its supplier, then using its manufacturing processes converts the raw materials to finished goods, and finally delivers the finished goods to its customer. The manufacturer produces the product in batches at a finite rate and periodically delivers the finished goods at a fixed lot size to its customer, who has a constant demand rate. An integrated inventory control model, making joint economic lot sizes of manufacturer's raw material ordering, production batch, and buyer's ordering, is developed to minimize the mean total cost per unit time of the raw materials ordering and holding, manufacturer's setup and finished goods holding, the buyer's ordering, and inventory holding. Numerical examples are also setup to illustrate that jointly considering the inventory costs above results in less mean total cost than that of considering them separately.     

FREQUENCY OF REPLANNING IN A ROLLING HORIZON MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULE FOR A PROCESS INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT: A CASE STUDY

This study addresses the problem of replanning frequency for a rolling horizon master production schedule (MPS) in a process industry environment under demand certainty. The major contribution of this paper is the demonstration of how the appropriate replanning frequency for a MPS can be determined under the conditions of minimum batch-size production restrictions in a rolling planning horizon setting. In addition, the problem environment for this study is an actual MPS operation that includes features such as multiple production lines, multiple products, capacity constraints, minimum inventory requirements, and multiple goals. Actual data from a paint company are used to determine the appropriate replanning frequency for a rolling horizon MPS. Results indicate that a 2-month replanning frequency was the best at this firm because of the significant cost savings it provided when compared to actual company performance and the other replanning intervals.     

Planned Lead Times in Multistage Systems

This study investigates the impact of planned lead times on performance in multistage manufacturing where material requirements planning is used in a make-to-stock environment. We simulate a variety of different operating environments and find: (1) planned lead times are important to customer service levels under all operating environments examined, but have a smaller impact on inventory investment; (2) tight due dates introduced by short planned lead times hurt customer service without saving much inventory; (3) small increases to tight planned lead times improve customer service substantially with small inventory increases; (4) co-component inventories change with planned lead times, and disparity between such inventories is a sign of poor timing coordination; (5) the fixed order quantity rule performs better than the periodic order quantity rule; and (6) tall product structure and large lot sizes require particular attention to planned lead times. The findings also extend the current understanding of planned lead times by including uncertainties such as forecast error, yield loss, and equipment reliability. The study concludes with a way to diagnose and improve poorly set planned lead times.     

Customer Order Scheduling in a General Job Shop Environment*

The primary objective of this study is to examine the performance of order-based dispatching rules in a general job shop, where the environmental factors are shop utilization and due date tightness. An order is defined as a collection of jobs that are shipped as a group—an order—to the customer, only on completion of the last job of the order. We specifically compare dispatching rules from past job-based studies to some rules adapted to encompass order characteristics. Standard flow time and tardiness measures are used, but in addition, we introduce measures that combine average performance with variation in an attempt to capture the performance of a majority of the orders processed in the shop. Of the 16 dispatching rules tested, our results show that four of the simple rules dominate the others. We also found that order-based rules perform better than their job-based counterparts. The study makes use of multivariate statistical analysis, in addition to the usual univariate tests, which can provide additional insight to managers using multiple criteria in their decision process.     

Concepts,Theory, and Techniques A JOINT LOT-SIZING RULE FOR FIXED LABOR-COST SITUATIONS

Many American firms are implementing just-in-time production in order to minimize inventories, reduce flow time, and maximize resource utilization. These firms recognize that, in the short run, setup costs really are fixed expenses and it is available capacity which is the critical factor in determining production-run quantities. We propose using available capacity to increase the number of setups and reduce lot-size inventories. This results in improved relevant cost performance. Sugimori, Kusunoki, Cho, and Uchikawa [16] in their paper on the Toyota kanban system developed a relationship for lead time but failed to use it for lot sizing. We use this relationship to develop the joint lot-sizing rule. The efficacy of our proposed rule is demonstrated by applying it to lot-size scheduling problems at the John Deere Engine Works [14]. Extensions of the proposed rule to undercapacity situations with material-wastage costs in the setup processes and to multistate production inventory systems also are discussed.     

PRODUCTION SCHEDULING OF CONTINUOUS FLOW LINES: MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WITH SETUP TIMES AND COSTS

The problem of production planning and setup scheduling of multiple products on a single facility is studied in this paper. The facility can only produce one product at a time. A setup is required when the production switches from one type of product to another. Both setup times and setup costs are considered. The objective is to determine the setup schedule and production rate for each product that minimize the average total costs, which include the inventory, backlog, and setup costs. Under the assumption of a constant production rate, we obtain the optimal cyclic rotation schedule for the multiple products system. Besides the decision variables studied in the classical economic lot scheduling problem (ELSP), the production rate is also a decision variable in our model. We prove that our solutions improve the results of the classical ELSP.     

Heterogeneous dispatching rules in job and flow shops

This paper reports the results of a study of the use of heterogeneous dispatching rules for the scheduling of work in a job shop. The methodology employed included discrete event simulation, using rule combinations determined by prior genetic algorithm searches and generalization using neural networks. Eight dispatching rules were considered, including first in first out (FIFO), earliest due date ( EDD), shortest processing time (SPT), slack/ number of operations (SLK), critical ratio (CR), modified due date (MDD), modified operation due date (MOD), and apparent tardiness cost (ATC). A three-machine job shop was studied, in which three work organizations were employed, pure flow (fixed sequence), pure job shop ( random sequence), and a hybrid shop where flow is random but with unequal probabilities. Three levels of machine loading were used and average tardiness was used as the performance measure. In most cases, modified due date and apparent tardiness cost were the best rules. The application of the best rules effected the results primarily when applied to bottleneck machines or the first machine in a pure flow shop. Nearly any other rule was acceptable on non-botdeneck machines except FIFO and CR, which consistently perform poorly. No major advantage of mixing rules was found.     

INVENTORY RATIONING AND SHIPMENT FLEXIBILITY ALTERNATIVES FOR DIRECT MARKET FIRMS

This paper investigates inventory‐rationing policies of interest to firms operating in a direct market channel. We model a single product with two demand classes, where one class requests a lower order fulfillment lead time but pays a higher price. Demand for each class follows a Poisson process. Inventory is fed by a production system with exponentially distributed build times. We study rationing policies in which the firm either blocks or backlogs orders for the lower priority customers when inventory drops below a certain level. We compare the performance of these rationing policies with a pure first‐come, first‐serve policy under various scenarios for customer response to delay: lost sales, backlog, and a combination of lost sales and backlog.     

带工期指派的产品服务系统订单随机调度问题研究

针对由一个制造工厂和多个区域服务中心组成的服务型制造企业，研究了考虑生产时间和服务时间均具有随机性且工期可指派的产品服务系统（PSS）订单调度问题。首先以最小化订单提前、误工和工期指派费用的期望总额为目标构建问题的优化模型，然后分析目标函数近似值的最优性条件，据此提出加权最短平均生产时间排序规则，并结合该规则与插入邻域局部搜索设计了启发式算法对问题进行求解，最后通过数值仿真验证算法的可行性和有效性。研究表明，提前费用偏差对PSS订单调度与工期指派决策的影响很小，因此企业管理者无需准确估计库存费用也能制定出比较有效的PSS订单调度策略；而工期指派费用偏差对决策结果的影响非常大，因此企业管理者在决策时必须谨慎估计该项费用。     

A Simulation Study of Sequencing Rules in a Kanban-Controlled Flow Shop*

This paper addresses the problem of sequencing in decentralized kanban-controlled flow shops. The kanban production control system considered uses two card types and a constant withdrawal period. The flow shops are decentralized in the sense that sequencing decisions are made at the local workstation level rather than by a centralized scheduling system. Further, there are no material requirements planning (MRP)-generated due dates available to drive dispatching rules such as earliest due date, slack, and critical ratio. Local sequencing rules suitable for the decentralized kanban production-control environment are proposed and tested in a simulation experiment. These rules are designed so that they can be implemented with only the information available at the workstation level. Example sequencing problems are used to show why the shortest processing time rule minimizes neither average work-in-process inventory nor average finished-goods withdrawal kanban waiting time. Further, it is shown how work station supervisors can use the withdrawal period, in addition to the number of kanbans, to manage work-in-process inventories.     

An Experimental Comparison of Dispatching Rules for Field Service Support*

Field service repair management is increasing in importance as “high tech” machines such as computers, communication systems, and copy machines are becoming more popular and more widely disbursed geographically. Complicating the management of these systems are response time performance guarantees (e.g., 8-hour response time), which are a popular marketing tool for many field service businesses [21]. These response time), guarantees especially complicate the field service dispatching problem. With response time guarantees, dispatchers must consider travel times and other issues to determine which call should be assigned to an available technician. This research proposes several dispatching rules that might be applied for dispatching sequential-trip technicians in this environment and compares these rules in a simulation experiment to determine which rule is best in terms of average tardiness. The proposed composite travel time-expiration time rule was found to be the best on average tardiness performance and on all other tardiness-related measures. Given the increased importance of tardiness performance in field service organizations, the proposed composite rule appears to have promise.     

Setups and effective capacity: the impact of lot sizing techniques in an MRP environment

This study investigates how lot sizing techniques influence the profit performance, inventory level, and order lardiness of an assembly job shop controlled by MRP. Four single-level lot sizing techniques are compared by simulation analysis under two levels of master schedule instability and two levels of end item demand. A second analysis investigates the influence of a multilevel lot sizing technique, the generalized constrained-K (GCK) cost modification, on the four single-level techniques at low demand and low nervousness. The analyses reveal a previously unreported phenomenon. Given the same inventory costs, the single-level lot sizing techniques generate substantially different average batch sizes. The lot sizing techniques maintain the following order of increasing average batch size (and decreasing total setup time):

economic order quantity (EOQ)

period order quantity (POQ)

least total cost (LTC)

Silver-Meal heuristic (SML)

The causes for different average batch sizes among the lot sizing techniques are analysed and explained. Demand lumpiness, inherent in multilevel manufacturing systems controlled by MRP, is found to be a major factor. The number of setups each lot sizing technique generates is the primary determinant of profit performance, inventory level, and order tardiness. EOQ, a fixed order quantity technique, is less sensitive to nervousness than the discrete lot sizing techniques. EOQ_, however, generates the smallest average batch size, and, therefore, the most setups. Since setups consume capacity, EOQ, is more sensitive to higher demand. SML generates the largest average batch sizes, and is, therefore, less sensitive to increased demand. At low demand, the other lot sizing techniques perform better on all criteria. They generate smaller batches and, therefore, shorter actual lead times. The GCK cost modification increases the average batch size generated by each lot sizing technique. GCK improves the profit and customer service level of EOQ the lot sizing technique with the smallest batches. GCK causes the other lot sizing techniques to generate excessively large batches and, therefore, excessively long actual lead times.     

EXISTENCE AND DERIVATION OF FORECAST HORIZONS IN A DYNAMIC LOT SIZE MODEL WITH NONDECREASING HOLDING COSTS

We are concerned with a discrete-time undiscounted dynamic lot size model in which demand and the production setup cost are constant for an initial few periods and the holding cost of inventory is an arbitrary nondecreasing function assumed to be stationary (i.e., explicitly independent of time) in the same initial few periods. We show that there exists a finite forecast horizon in our model and obtain an explicit formula for it. In addition, we obtain fairly general conditions under which the existence of a solution horizon in the model implies the existence of a forecast horizon. We also derive an explicit formula for the minimal solution horizon. These results extend the earlier ones obtained for the dynamic lot size model with linearly increasing holding costs.