Near-Misses and Stop Buttons in Slot Machine Play: An Investigation of How They Affect Players,and May Foster Erroneous Cognitions

In modern casinos, multiline slot machines are becoming increasingly popular compared to traditional, three-reel slot machines. A paucity of research has examined how the unique presentation of near-misses and the use of a stop button in multiline slot machines impact erroneous cognitions related to the perception of skill and agency during play. Our goal therefore was to determine the prevalence of erroneous cognitions pertaining to near-miss outcomes and the usage of a stop button and then to see whether the stop button affected players’ experiences of winning, losing and near-miss outcomes. We recruited 132 gamblers from a casino in Ontario. They played two versions of a slot machine simulator: one with a stop button and one without a stop button. We measured player’s arousal [skin conductance responses (SCRs), pressure on the spin-button), and behavioural responses (post-reinforcement pauses (PRPs)] to wins, losses and near-misses during play. We predicted more robust physiological SCRs and longer PRPs to wins in the stop button game. We also predicted that near-misses encountered in the stop button game would trigger greater levels of arousal and frustration in players, as indexed by larger SCRs, and greater force applied to the spin button to initiate the next spin. Erroneous cognitions pertaining to the stop button and near-misses respectively were assessed following play. Results showed that a small but meaningful percentage of players held erroneous cognitions about the stop button (13.6%) and near-misses (16%). Players depressed the spin button harder, and had larger SCRs for all outcomes when using the stop button. Players also paused longer for near-misses in the game involving the stop button. Our findings converge to suggest that the stop button encourages an erroneous perception of skill in some players, and consequentially impacts how such players perceive their outcomes in multiline slot machines.     

The Frustrating Effects of Just Missing the Jackpot: Slot Machine Near-Misses Trigger Large Skin Conductance Responses, But No Post-reinforcement Pauses

Near-misses in slot machines resemble jackpot wins but fall just short. Previous research has demonstrated that near-misses are behaviorally reinforcing despite the absence of monetary reward. We assessed the hedonic properties of near-misses by measuring the time between outcome delivery and the initiation of the next spin—the post-reinforcement pause (PRP) and skin conductance responses (SCRs) for losses, near-misses, and a range of wins (5, 15, 25, 50 or 250 credits) while participants (N = 122) played a slot machine simulator. PRPs and SCRs were compared for 40 low frequency and 22 high frequency slots players who were non-problem gamblers, 37 at risk players, and 23 problem gamblers. For winning outcomes, PRPs and SCRs tracked monotonically with win size such that progressively larger wins were associated with progressively larger PRPs and SCRs. Near-misses with jackpot symbols landing on the first two reels had significantly larger SCRs than regular losses, and other types of near misses. Crucially, PRPs for this kind of near-miss were significantly smaller than all wins, and when non-parametric statistics were used, significantly smaller than regular losses. This pattern of large SCRs and small PRPs suggest that these are highly frustrating outcomes that stimulate appetitive components of the reward system to promote continued gambling.     

The Candy Crush Sweet Tooth: How ‘Near-misses’ in Candy Crush Increase Frustration,and the Urge to Continue Gameplay

Like many gambling games, the exceedingly popular and lucrative smartphone game “Candy Crush” features near-miss outcomes. In slot machines, a near-miss involves getting two of the needed three high-paying symbols on the pay-line (i.e., just missing the big win). In Candy Crush, the game signals when you just miss getting to the next level by one or two moves. Because near-misses in gambling games have consistently been shown to invigorate play despite being frustrating outcomes, the goal of the present study was to examine whether such near-misses trigger increases in player arousal, frustration and urge to continue play in Candy Crush. Sixty avid Candy Crush players were recruited to play the game for 30 min while having their Heart Rate, Skin Conductance Level, subjective arousal, frustration and urge to play recorded for three types of outcomes: wins (where they level up), losses (where they don’t come close to levelling up), and near-misses (where they just miss levelling up). Near-misses were more arousing than losses as indexed by increased heart rate and greater subjective arousal. Near-misses were also subjectively rated as the most frustrating of all outcomes. Most importantly, of any type of outcome, near-misses triggered the most substantial urge to continue play. These findings suggest that near-misses in Candy Crush play a role in player commitment to the game, and may contribute to players playing longer than intended.     

Dual effects of ‘losses disguised as wins’ and near-misses in a slot machine game

Individually, both near-misses and losses disguised as wins (LDWs) have been seen to exert pro-motivational effects on gambling. However, it is not clear whether both structural characteristics are effective within the same game. Participants (n = 40) played a slot machine simulation. The simulation delivered near-misses, wins and ‘full-misses’. Half the participants also received LDWs that occurred independently of the outcomes on the payline. Valence and motivation ratings were collected after each round. Results showed that the LDW group reported increased valence ratings compared to the no-LDW group. Within the LDW group, trials with LDWs also resulted in increased enjoyment compared to trials without LDWs. We distinguished near-misses falling either side of the payline. Near-misses before the payline (NMB) were rated as more motivational than near-misses after the payline (NMA), whereas NMAs were rated as more aversive than NMBs. These differences between the two near-miss types were exacerbated by LDWs. Results demonstrate LDWs increase the trial-by-trial enjoyment of non-win outcomes. The motivational and hedonic effects of near-misses differed for events either side of the payline, and these differences were exaggerated by the presence of LDWs. Thus, near-misses can retain their effectiveness in complex forms of gambling that also deliver LDWs.     

Physiological Responses to Near-Miss Outcomes and Personal Control During Simulated Gambling

Near-miss outcomes during gambling are non-win outcomes that fall close to a pay-out. While objectively equivalent to an outright miss, near-misses motivate ongoing play and may therefore be implicated in the development of disordered gambling. Given naturalistic data showing increases in heart rate (HR) and electrodermal activity (EDA) during periods of real gambling play, we sought to explore the phasic impact of win, near-miss and full-miss outcomes on physiological arousal in a controlled laboratory environment. EDA and HR were monitored as healthy, student participants (n = 33) played a simulated slot-machine task involving unpredictable monetary wins. A second gambling distortion, perceived personal control, was manipulated within the same task by allowing the participant to select the play icon on some trials, and having the computer automatically select the play icon on other trials. Near-misses were rated as less pleasant than full-misses. However, on trials that involved personal choice, near-misses produced higher ratings of ‘continue to play’ than full-misses. Winning outcomes were associated with phasic EDA responses that did not vary with personal choice. Compared to full-misses, near-miss outcomes also elicited an EDA increase, which was greater on personal choice trials. Near-misses were also associated with greater HR acceleration than other outcomes. Near-miss outcomes are capable of eliciting phasic changes in physiological arousal consistent with a state of subjective excitement, despite their objective non-win status.     

“I was <Emphasis Type="Italic">that</Emphasis> close”: Investigating Players’ Reactions to Losses,Wins, and Near-Misses on Scratch Cards

While scratch cards are a popular, accessible, and inexpensive form of gambling, very little is known about how they affect and influence the player. This study sought to understand the physiological and subjective experience of scratch card play, with special emphasis on the effect of near-miss outcomes (i.e. uncovering two out of three “grand prize” symbols needed to win said prize), which are remarkably prevalent in scratch card games. Thirty-eight undergraduate students from the University of Waterloo each played two custom scratch card games and experienced three types of outcomes (losses, wins and near-misses) while their skin conductance levels (SCLs) and post-reinforcement pauses were recorded. Each participant also rated each outcome in terms of its subjective level of arousal, valence, and frustration. Our results indicate that players interpreted near-misses as negatively valenced, highly arousing, frustrating losses, and were faster to move onto the next game following this type of outcome than following winning outcomes. Additionally, near-miss outcomes were associated with the largest amount of change in SCLs as the outcome was revealed. This work has implications for the problem gambling literature as it provides evidence of the frustration hypothesis of near-misses in scratch cards, and is the first study to examine the physiological and psychological experiences of scratch card players.     

Reinforcing Small Wins and Frustrating Near-Misses: Further Investigation Into Scratch Card Gambling

Scratch card games are incredibly popular in the Canadian marketplace. However, only recently have researchers started to systematically analyze their structural characteristics and how these in turn affect the gambler. We present two studies designed to further understand the underlying physiological and psychological effects that scratch cards have on gamblers. We had gamblers (63 in Experiment 1, 68 in Experiment 2) play custom made scratch cards involving a small win, a regular loss and a near-miss—where they uncovered two out of the three symbols needed to win the top prize. Our predictions were that despite near-misses and losses being objectively equivalent (the gambler wins nothing) gamblers’ reactions to these outcomes would differ dramatically. During game play, skin conductance levels and heart rate were recorded, as well as how long gamblers paused between each game. Gamblers’ subjective reactions to the different outcomes were then assessed. In both studies, near-misses triggered higher levels of physiological arousal (skin conductance levels and heart rates) than losses. Gamblers paused significantly longer following small wins than other outcomes, and reported high arousal, positive affect and urge to gamble—a constellation of results consistent with their rewarding properties. Importantly near-miss outcomes were rated as highly arousing, negative in emotional tone, and the most frustrating of all three outcome types examined. In Experiment 2, when we measured subjective urge to gamble immediately after each outcome, urge to gamble was significantly higher following near-misses than regular losses. Thus, despite not rewarding the gambler with any monetary gain, these outcomes nevertheless triggered higher arousal and larger urges to gamble than regular losses, a finding that may explain in part, the allure of scratch cards as a gambling activity.     

Increased Urge to Gamble Following Near-Miss Outcomes May Drive Purchasing Behaviour in Scratch Card Gambling

Previous research into scratch card gambling has highlighted the effects of these games on players’ arousal and affective states. Specifically, near-miss outcomes in scratch cards (uncovering 2 of 3 needed jackpot symbols) have been associated with high levels of physiological and subjective arousal and negative emotional evaluations, including increased frustration. We sought to extend this research by examining whether near-misses prompted increases in gambling urge, and the subsequent purchasing of additional scratch cards. Participants played two scratch cards with varying outcomes with half of the sample experiencing a near-miss for the jackpot prize, and the other half experiencing a regular loss. Players rated their urge to continue gambling after each game outcome, and following the initial playing phase, were then able to use their winnings to purchase additional cards. Our results indicated that near-misses increased the urge to gamble significantly more than regular losses, and urge to gamble in the near-miss group was significantly correlated with purchasing at least one additional card. Although some players in the loss group purchased another card, there was no correlation between urge to gamble and purchasing in this group. Additionally, participants in the near-miss group who purchased additional cards reported higher levels of urge than those who did not purchase more cards. This was not true for the loss group: participants who experienced solely losing outcomes reported similar levels of urge regardless of whether or not they purchased more scratch cards. Despite near-misses’ objective status as monetary losses, the increased urge that follows near-miss outcomes may translate into further scratch card gambling for a subset of individuals .     

Reduced inhibitory control predicts persistence in laboratory slot machine gambling

Impairments in inhibitory control characterize a range of addictive behaviours including gambling disorder. This study investigated the relationship between a neuropsychological measure of inhibitory control and behaviour on a simulated slot machine that included a measure of gambling persistence, in a non-clinical sample of regular gamblers. Regular gamblers (n = 75) performed a laboratory slot machine task for 30 trials where they could win real money, followed by a persistence phase under extinction (i.e. without wins). Participants also completed a stop-signal task, along with measures of gambling-related cognitions, social desirability, and symptoms of disordered gambling. In hierarchical regression models, reduced inhibitory control was found to predict greater persistence and a higher subjective desire to play again after both wins and near-misses (i.e. unsuccessful outcomes close to the jackpot). These data illustrate the impact of low inhibitory control on relevant behavioural tendencies in a group of regular gamblers. Our results help elucidate a cognitive process that may contribute to problem gambling, with implications for screening and treatment.     

Mixed Emotions to Near-Miss Outcomes: A Psychophysiological Study with Facial Electromyography

Near-misses occur across many forms of gambling and are rated as unpleasant while simultaneously increasing the motivation to continue playing. On slot machines, the icon position relative to the payline moderates the effects of near-misses, with near-misses before the payline increasing motivation, and near-misses after the payline being rated as aversive. Near-misses are also known to increase physiological arousal compared to full-misses, but physiological measures to date have not been able to dissociate positive and negative emotional responses. The present study measured facial electromyography at the corrugator (brow) and zygomaticus (cheek) sites, as well as electrodermal activity (EDA), following gambling outcomes on a two-reel slot machine simulation in 77 novice gamblers. Behavioral data was collected using trial-by-trial ratings of motivation and valence. Wins were rated as more pleasant and increased motivation to continue playing, compared to non-win outcomes. Wins were also accompanied by increased EDA and zygomaticus activity. Near-misses after the payline were rated as more aversive than other non-wins, and this was accompanied by increased EDA and zygomaticus activity. Near-misses before the payline increased motivation to continue playing, and were accompanied by increased EDA. Thus, both subjective and physiological responses to near-misses differ for events falling either side of the payline. The ‘near-miss effect’ is not a unitary phenomenon. Facial EMG has differential sensitivity to positive and negative valence and may be a useful measure for future studies of gambling behavior.     

Misinterpreting ‘winning’ in multiline slot machine games

On multiline slot machines, ‘wins’ often amount to less than the spin wager, resulting in a monetary loss to the gambler. Nevertheless, these losses disguised as wins (LDWs) are accompanied by potentially reinforcing audiovisual feedback. A concern for gambling behaviour is whether or not players categorize LDWs as wins or losses, as miscategorization could effectively increase the reinforcement rate of these games. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether novice gamblers psychologically miscategorize LDWs. Forty-seven novices (undergraduate students) played 200 spins on an actual slot machine with credits, then estimated how often they won. It was found that the more LDWs players were exposed to, the higher their win estimates. In a subsequent ‘think out loud’ playing session, the majority of novices also verbally miscategorized LDWs as wins. We conclude that LDWs could increase the reinforcement rate of these games, despite not increasing the payout to the gambler.     

On the numerical forms of contingent valuation responses

Responses elicited by means of contingent valuation are often expressed in numerical forms termed “prominent numbers”, characterised by inexactness. This might arise because subjects find exactness in response unnecessary or valuation tasks intrinsically difficult. It has been suggested that the provision of numerical cues could influence the ease of completion of the valuation task, and thus its outcome. We describe an experiment undertaken to test three hypotheses. These are, first, that the perceived level of difficulty of the valuation task falls as the exactness of numerical cues provided to subjects increases. Second, it is hypothesised that subjects choose values characterised by higher degrees of exactness if they have been cued by numbers characterised by higher degrees of exactness. Third, the size of the chosen value is expected to be lower if the perceived task difficulty is higher. All three hypotheses are supported. Potential explanations for, and implications of, these findings are discussed.     

Hitting the jackpot: the influence of monetary payout on gambling behaviour

Restrictions on monetary payout may promote player engagement in gambling as a form of entertainment rather than as a source of income. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of monetary prize magnitude upon gambling behaviour in a community sample, and the degree to which this association is moderated by gambling risk factors. One hundred and eighty-seven adults completed an online survey assessing motivation, impulsivity and affect. Participants were given a series of vignettes and asked to estimate how much they would gamble to win monetary prizes of increasing amounts with and without accrued gambling debt. Participants reported increased gambling in response to increased monetary payout. Debt moderated these outcomes, such that electronic gaming machine (EGM) and lottery expenditures and number of lottery games played decreased with increased debt; this effect was most pronounced at elevated monetary prizes. The association between duration of EGM play and monetary payout was moderated by gender only. Results suggest that self-reported gambling behaviours increased with monetary payout even across qualitatively different gambling products, and across gamblers with different motivations for gambling, levels of impulsivity, and negative affect. The restriction of monetary payouts warrants further research attention as a form of problem gambling prevention.     

Cognitive,social, and neural determinants of diminished decision-making and financial exploitation risk in aging and dementia: A review and new model

ABSTRACT

In this article we will briefly review how changes in brain and in cognitive and social functioning, across the spectrum from normal to pathological aging, can lead to decision-making impairments that increase abuse risk in many life domains (e.g., health care, social engagement, financial management). The review will specifically focus on emerging research identifying neural, cognitive, and social markers of declining financial decision-making capacity in older adults. We will highlight how these findings are opening avenues for early detection and new interventions to reduce exploitation risk.     

Borrowing trouble. Finding ways out of value systems discord for biodiversity policy-making

IPBES’ conceptual framework, and the related debates prior to its adoption, provided an interesting opportunity to witness an old and ongoing tension between two value systems, namely an “economic” and utility-based value system, and a “cultural” and comprehensive value system. Arguments for and against both value systems relate, at least partly, to criteria such as practicality, democracy, comprehensiveness and respect for various forms of worldviews. However, disputes regarding the legitimacy of these value systems mostly rest on theoretical ground since they generally focus on the potential threats and future promises of approaches related to these value systems, rather than on their actual impacts and performance. This article aims to contribute to filling this gap.

Typical instruments of the “economic” value system are cost-benefit analysis and its correlate, ecosystem services valuation. The key selling point of these instruments is their ability to support efficient, transparent and democratic policy-making processes. On the other hand, their most often denounced threat lies in paving the way to the commodification of nature. In this paper, these promises and threats are put to test in the context of Official Development Assistance and the decision-making processes of five Official Development Agencies (ODAs) such as the World Bank, the European Investment Banks and three bilateral ODAs. The paper provides for an analysis of the role of cost-benefit analysis and ecosystem services valuation for supporting decision-making in the fields related to the local environment in these ODAs. Results suggest that, however favourable the context of ODA appears for economic valuation instruments, the “economic” value system has failed to deliver both in terms of its most commonly boasted promises and its most often denounced threats. This suggests renewing our views on the tension between the value systems. All value systems give birth to languages, concepts and representations that can be used as complementary rather than conflicting resources as long as the economic analysis is no longer considered as a proxy for decision-making, but rather as a useful language to speak of material interests and of distribution, and to bring these concerns into deliberation processes.     

Modern Multi-line Slot Machine Games: The Effect of Lines Wagered on Winners,Losers, Bonuses,and Losses Disguised as Wins

We simulated the commercially available multi-line slot machine game “Money Storm,” including its bonus wins. Our results show that after a specified amount of time (such as 1 or 50 h), when players played a single line, there were marked differences between one player and the next—a few won a lot, others lost far more than average. When playing 20 lines there were fewer big winners and fewer players quickly losing a large percentage of their money. We simulated a Gambler’s Ruin scenario whereby players arrived with $100 and made $1 wagers until broke. Again we saw a reduction in the variability among player as the number of lines wagered increased, fewer players lost their entire bankroll quickly, and fewer players had big wins. The bonus wins in Money Storm contribute approximately 24 % to the payback of the game, and our simulations of bonus wins shows that with 20 lines wagered the players spend approximately 11 % of their time in bonus wins. With one line wagered, there are no losses disguised as wins while with 20 lines wagered the majority of hits are losses disguised as wins. Players using multi-line machines can thus tune the characteristics of the machine gambling experience to match their preferred pattern, though most seem in practice to bet on the most possible lines. Our results serve to inform researchers, counsellors, gamblers and others about how slot machines are designed, and the effect that wagering on multiple lines has on short-term and long-term play, bonus wins, and losses disguised as wins.     

Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling

Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.     

Before crisis: How near-miss affects organizational trust and industry transference in emerging industries

A near-miss, such as a narrowly avoided collision between vehicles, evades a full-scale accident but can generate media attention that threatens trust. In emerging industries, the effects of near-miss may extend beyond organizational boundaries and influence trust in the industry and technology. This study empirically tests these assertions by examining how media reports of near-miss affect organizational trustworthiness and how trust repair strategies after a near-miss influence organizational and industry trust and technology acceptance in the emerging commercial industry of unmanned aircraft. Notwithstanding parallels to paracrisis, near-miss communication is understudied in public relations research. Further, studies of trust in the context of crisis are recent (see Brühl et al., 2018; Fuoli et al., 2017), and have produced unexpected results that warrant continued exploration in public relations. Underpinned by attribution theory, this study adopts a 2 (near-miss cause: external, low controllability; internal, high controllability) x 3 (trust repair strategy delivered via news story: denial, excuse, apology) scenario-based experiment. This study found that near-miss reduced organizational trustworthiness regardless of whether the event was controllable or not, indicating that when it comes to trust perceptions, near-miss can operate similarly to crisis. Further, apology was the only strategy that arrested a fall in organizational trustworthiness. The study signaled a trust transfer effect where organizational trust influenced industry trust, which led to the acceptance of unmanned aircraft technology. In the context of emerging industries, these findings have implications for organizations that experience near-miss, highlighting the potential for a standardized initial strategy to acknowledge a reduction in trust in order to support trust beyond the organization.     

Decision-Making,Cognitive Distortions and Alcohol Use in Adolescent Problem and Non-problem Gamblers: An Experimental Study

In the psychological literature, many studies have investigated the neuropsychological and behavioral changes that occur developmentally during adolescence. These studies have consistently observed a deficit in the decision-making ability of children and adolescents. This deficit has been ascribed to incomplete brain development. The same deficit has also been observed in adult problem and pathological gamblers. However, to date, no study has examined decision-making in adolescents with and without gambling problems. Furthermore, no study has ever examined associations between problem gambling, decision-making, cognitive distortions and alcohol use in youth. To address these issues, 104 male adolescents participated in this study. They were equally divided in two groups, problem gamblers and non-problem gamblers, based on South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised for Adolescents scores. All participants performed the Iowa gambling task and completed the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale and the alcohol use disorders identification test. Adolescent problem gamblers displayed impaired decision-making, reported high cognitive distortions, and had more problematic alcohol use compared to non-problem gamblers. Strong correlations between problem gambling, alcohol use, and cognitive distortions were observed. Decision-making correlated with interpretative bias. This study demonstrated that adolescent problem gamblers appear to have the same psychological profile as adult problem gamblers and that gambling involvement can negatively impact on decision-making ability that, in adolescence, is still developing. The correlations between interpretative bias and decision-making suggested that the beliefs in the ability to influence gambling outcomes may facilitate decision-making impairment.     

The Relationship Between Reinforcement and Gaming Machine Choice

The present study assessed whether prior reinforcement experiences were related to gaming machine choice and the decision to change gaming machines during a session of gambling. Seventy undergraduate students (48 women, 22 men; mean age = 22.05 years) were presented with two visually identical simulated gaming machines in a practice phase. These simulated machines differed only in the rate of reinforcement. After the practice phase, participants were asked to choose a machine to play in the test phase and were allowed to change machines at will. Two measures of reinforcement were employed; frequency of wins and payback rate. Results indicated that neither measure of reinforcement was related to machine choice, but both were predictors of when participants changed machines. A post-hoc analysis of the 33 participants who changed machines during the test phase found a significant relationship between machine choice and prior reinforcement. For these participants, payback rate was significantly related to machine choice, unlike frequency of wins.