ERP项目生命周期的风险分析与控制

为有效防范ERP项目实施失败风险的发生,本文从ERP项目全生命周期管理着手,定义了风险的种类。提出了风险识别和风险分析的四个主要方面;分析了ERP项目实施可能存在的风险及解决方法;提出了风险评估量化分析方法,给出了风险影响曲线。根据风险识别与分析方法,结合ERP实施各阶段情况,提出风险控制方法,确定了一种完整的风险控制策略。     

信用证的欺诈及防范

信用证欺诈是民事欺诈在信用证领域中的一种特殊表现形式。在中国入世后,国际经济交往越来越频繁,预防信用证欺诈是减少贸易风险的重要手段,本文将积极地对信用证欺诈的防范措施进行一些探索。     

信用证的欺诈及防范

信用证欺诈是民事欺诈在信用证领域中的一种特殊表现形式.在中国入世后,国际经济交往越来越频繁,预防信用证欺诈是减少贸易风险的重要手段,本文将积极地对信用证欺诈的防范措施进行一些探索.     

基于贝叶斯MCMC的POT模型——低频高损的操作风险度量

对低频率高损失的操作风险进行量化非常困难,其特点为较少发生,而一旦发生通常都会造成巨额损失,因此数据匮乏是一个严重的挑战,内部欺诈风险是此类风险的典型代表,也是中国商业银行有代表性的重大操作风险类型.在损失分布法的框架下,通过极值理论对内部欺诈风险进行度量;考虑到使用损失数据对频率直接拟合带来的问题,借助POT模型的重要性质对内部欺诈风险强度和频率进行估计;在此基础上,使用基于吉布斯抽样的贝叶斯MCMC方法估计POT模型的参数,以解决样本数据不足时极大似然估计中误差增大的问题.在这一方法框架下,以中国商业银行的内部欺诈损失数据为样本,对中国商业银行的内部欺诈风险进行度量,并估计了相应的经济资本.     

财务欺诈风险特征筛选框架的建立和应用

本文从金融科技大数据出发,以人工智能的吉布斯随机搜索(Gibbs Sampling)算法为工具,在大数据框架下建立了针对公司财务欺诈风险的特征因子筛选的一般处理方法与特征提取推断原理,并结合上市公司的财务报表数据进行实证分析,结合从2017年1月到2018年12月证监会对上市公司财务报表信息披露违规的数据样本,筛选出刻画财务欺诈的特征因子并进行了验证测试,支持财务欺诈的识别。本文提出的框架和模型方法可以加强和提升对上市公司财务欺诈风险的识别能力,并实现对公司财务在欺诈方面的探测与预测(Detecting and Predicting)功能。     

银行网络支付的潜在风险及防范

正由于网络支付业务的创新性、跨界经营和客户自主远程操作的特点,以及第三方支付服务端系统漏洞、客户的风险意识参差不齐,特别是第三方平台风险防控水平和能力的不可控性,给银行网络支付风险的管理和防控提出了新的挑战。如果客户不慎将账户相关信息泄露给不法分子,就有可能账户资金被诈骗分子通过网络支付转移欺诈。网络支付欺诈事件的特征和表现形式目前来讲,电信欺诈、钓鱼欺诈和网站信息泄漏是目前三种主要的网络支付诈骗类型,其主要特征     

基于变位置参数贝叶斯预测银行内部欺诈研究

内部欺诈事件类型是中国商业银行最严重的操作风险类型。但由于操作风险本质特征和中国商业银行内部欺诈损失数据收集年度较短,数据匮乏,为了在小样本数据下进行更准确的度量,本文采用贝叶斯后验预测分布方法,其中,假设损失频率服从泊松-伽马分布,而损失强度服从广义帕累托-混合伽马分布,分析后验分布的形式。由于在广义帕累托分布的参数估计中,位置参数的确定对估计结果的影响很大,因此,本文采用变位置参数线性趋势的贝叶斯分析以增强参数预测稳定性,降低位置参数选择对结果产生的影响,获得中国商业银行内部欺诈损失频率和损失强度的后验预测分布和边际分布,进而采用蒙特卡罗模拟,联合损失频率分布和损失强度的预测分布获得内部欺诈的风险联合分布。与传统Poisson-GPD极值分析法相比,在险值和预期超额损失明显降低,有利于银行降低内部欺诈操作风险资本。利用贝叶斯分析获得的后验分布可以作为未来的先验分布,有利于在较小样本下获得较真实的参数估计。     

审计项目中财务欺诈之审计对策

本文力图在审计项目的实施过程中从识别公司财务欺诈的风险信号和对财务报表进行分析性复核两个方面建立起独立审计防范财务欺诈的壁垒。     

信用证欺诈风险与防范

正在国际贸易的过程中,信用证业务为双方国际结算提供便利的同时,也带来了一些风险。对国际贸易的发展非常不利,本文从研究信用证欺诈类型入手,分析信用证欺诈产生原因进而提出防范措施。信用证欺诈的界定《跟单信用证统一惯例》(UCP600)没有对信用证欺诈概念做规定,我国最高院《信用证规定》第8条对信     

商业银行柜面业务操作风险的表现形式与特征探究

柜面业务操作风险是操作风险的重要组成部分,也是当前操作风险的主要矛盾和主要方面。柜面业务操作风险通常是在银行营业网点受理客户业务交易后,由于外部欺诈、内部欺诈原因对银行或客户资金财产造成损失所形成的风险。     

基于VAR模型的金融危机传染效应检验方法与实证分析

随着国际经济一体化程度的提高,经济风险的波及效应也日益显著。20世纪90年代以来爆发的国际金融危机,通过金融市场体系对各国产生的传染效应便是典型的表现之一。本文运用VAR系统的方法,提出了通过分析危机前后各国市场波动性之间的因果关系的变化、以及被传染国家对危机发源国的冲击响应的变化,来检验金融危机传染效应的新方法。并运用此方法,实证分析了亚洲金融危机的传染效应。     

基本医疗保险中共谋问题的研究与防范

本文首先讨论了在我国当前实行的基本医疗保险体系中患者和医疗机构为了共同的利益,利用信息优势,形成共谋来欺骗医疗保险机构的可能性。然后在建立基本医疗保险体系的简单模型的基础上,分析了医患共谋产生的情况,详细讨论了有效防止医患共谋的保险合同的设计问题,并且得出了此类保险合同所具有的一系列基本特性。     

客户流失危机分析的决策树方法

叙述了客户流失的基本概念,分析客户流失危机产生的原因,指出了传统的客户流失危机分析方法存在的问题,在ID3算法的基础上,提出一种加权熵的概念,并对ID3算法进行改进,提出了一种基于决策树的客户流失危机分析方法,通过一个客户流失危机的分析实验对该模型进行了验证.实验结果表明该方法是可行的和有效的,为客户流失危机分析和预警提供了一种新的研究思路和分析方法.     

Morality rebooted: Exploring simple fixes to our moral bugs

Ethics research developed partly in response to calls from organizations to understand and solve unethical behavior. We examine two approaches to mitigating unethical behavior: (1) values-oriented approaches that broadly appeal to individuals’ preferences to be more moral, and (2) structure-oriented approaches that redesign specific incentives, tasks, and decisions to reduce temptations to cheat in the environment. This paper explores how these approaches can change behavior. We argue that integrating both approaches while avoiding incompatible strategies can reduce the risk of adverse effects that arise from taking a single approach and leverage the strengths of both approaches.     

Embracing risk as a core competence: The case of CEMEX

In this paper we argue that risk management can be an important source of competitive advantage for firms. For this to happen, managers must overcome four deep-seated notions about the management of risk: the myopic conception that risk is a collection of unconnected threats to the survival of a firm, the belief that risk management is largely a financial activity, the idea that risk management is solely a top management team task, and a blind faith that CEOs can continuously anticipate the risks that firms must address on an ongoing basis. Challenging these four misconceptions reveals that risk management can be an activity that is value creating, not just value preserving. Indeed, rather than indiscriminately shedding all types of risks, companies can develop new sources of competitive advantage by embracing those risks that they are relatively better at managing than their rivals. We illustrate our arguments by analyzing the risk management practices at CEMEX, the Mexican cement manufacturer.     

信贷环境与类型差异情景下的PPP项目政府经济承诺决策

为破解政府在PPP项目中存在的"承诺不足"与"承诺过度"决策难题，基于项目类型和信贷环境差异构建四种决策情景，融合优化决策与实物期权理论构建政府经济承诺决策模型，通过Kuhn-Tucker条件分析模型解的条件与边界并设计计算机求解算法，以W市城东污水处理项目为例进行数值模拟探讨政府经济承诺决策规律。结果表明：情景差异将会影响政府经济承诺决策；政府经济承诺可以提升项目价值，但较高的经济承诺未必导致较高的承诺成本；政府应对收益波动型项目给予更低的经济承诺，应在信贷收紧时给予更高的经济承诺，反之亦然；政府可以通过转移收益分配权和增加投资额来降低经济承诺，且不同情景效果具有差异。本文系统刻画了信贷环境与类型差异对经济承诺决策的影响，对于明晰经济承诺的决策成本及其后果、控制PPP项目金融风险、优化我国政府经济承诺决策等具有积极价值。     

Analyzing Complicity in Risk

When risks generate anger rather than fear, there is at least someone who regards the imposition of those risks as wrongdoing; and it then makes sense to speak of the involvement in producing those risks as complicity. It is particularly relevant to examine the complicity of risk bearers, because this is likely to have a strong influence on how far other actors should go in providing them with protection. This article makes a case for analyzing complicity explicitly, in parallel with normal processes of risk assessment, and proposes a framework for this analysis. It shows how it can be applied in a case study of maritime transportation, and examines the practical and theoretical difficulties of this kind of analysis. The conclusion is that the analysis has to be formative rather than summative, but that it could provide a useful way of exposing differences in the assumptions of different actors about agency and responsibility.     

Cyber risk assessment in small and medium-sized enterprises: A multilevel decision-making approach for small e-tailors

The role played by information and communication technologies in today's businesses cannot be underestimated. While such technological advancements provide numerous advantages and opportunities, they are known to thread organizations with new challenges such as cyberattacks. This is particularly important for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are deemed to be the least mature and highly vulnerable to cybersecurity risks. Thus, this research is set to assess the cyber risks in online retailing SMEs (e-tailing SMEs). Therefore, this article employs a sample of 124 small e-tailers in the United Kingdom and takes advantage of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. Indeed, we identified a total number of 28 identified cyber-oriented risks in five exhaustive themes of “security,” “dependency,” “employee,” “strategic,” and “legal” risks. Subsequently, an integrated approach using step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) and best–worst method (BWM) has been employed to develop a pathway of risk assessment. As such, the current study outlines a novel approach toward cybersecurity risk management for e-tailing SMEs and discusses its effectiveness and contributions to the cyber risk management literature.     

Investigating Heterogeneity in the Characterization of Risks Using Best Worst Scaling

This research proposes and implements a new approach to the elicitation and analysis of perceptions of risk. We use best worst scaling (BWS) to elicit the levels of control respondents believe they have over risks and the level of concern those risks prompt. The approach seeks perceptions of control and concern over a large risk set and the elicitation method is structured so as to reduce the cognitive burden typically associated with ranking over large sets. The BWS approach is designed to yield strong discrimination over items. Further, the approach permits derivation of individual‐level values, in this case of perceptions of control and worry, and analysis of how these vary over observable characteristics, through estimation of random parameter logit models. The approach is implemented for a set of 20 food and nonfood risks. The results show considerable heterogeneity in perceptions of control and worry, that the degree of heterogeneity varies across the risks, and that women systematically consider themselves to have less control over the risks than men.     

供应商专项投资与感知的合作风险:关系发展阶段与控制机制的调节作用研究

本文从供应商———制造商关系发展这一动态的角度探讨供应商专项投资与其感知合作风险之间的关系以及契约和关系规范的不同调节作用.通过对中国家电行业261对供应商与制造商的关系的问卷调查,采用因子分析和多元回归的方法对概念模型及假设进行验证.本文研究结果表明:(1)在不同的关系发展阶段供应商专项投资与其感知的合作风险有着显著的差异.(2)尽管契约和关系规范对供应商专项投资与其感知的合作风险间的正向关系有着负向调节作用,但在关系发展的不同阶段,这种调节作用也存在着显著的差异.本文对于认识和了解关系发展阶段中供应商专项投资带来的合作风险感知水平的变化以及两种不同控制机制调节作用的差异性具有重要的理论和现实意义.