银行不应对XX企业授信的分析

银行决定对一个公司是否授信是银行内部风险管理的关键一环，因为信用风险是传统的三大风险之一，对于银行的资产安全有着至关重要的作用。2008年的美国次贷危机所引起的全球金融海啸其起因就是银行对企业和个人盲目授信，从而产生了许多不良资产，引发了一系列严重的恶果。本文以某公司为例，从它的偿债能力、流动性风险和债务及销售三个方面进行分析。     

长安管理信息系统应用现状及开发策略

本文较为系统地论述了长安管理信息系统(CA-MIS)的开发过程及应用现状,客观地分析了我厂MIS建设中存在的主要问题及今后所应采取的开发策略.可供厂领导在制定规划时参考。     

试析我国图书馆业务管理系统的开发

对于我国图书馆业务管理信息系统的开发与建设进行分析,首先就要对图书馆管理信息的含义和技术进行概述,同时指出我国图书馆管理信息系统的开发现状以及存在的问题,针对这些现状和问题提出有效的解决我国图书馆信息系统这些问题的方法。     

对医院管理信息系统应加强内部审计

现在医院管理信息系统中的大量数据信息也和财务信息一样关系到医院的经营安全,我们必须加强内部审计来对它的处理过程及存储的业务数据的完整性和准确性进行审查。全面地评估医院管理信息系统能否有效地保证其数据的完整性和医院的资产安全,发现其中所存在的应用、管理和控制上的弱点和问题,并加以解决,以及时规避医院管理信息系统的风险。     

Excel在房地产投资项目敏感性分析中的应用

Excel是微软公司出品的office系列办公软件的一个组件,确切的说它是一个电子表格软件,可以用它来制作电子表格,完成许多复杂的运算,进行数据的分析和预测等。本文主要介绍运用EXCEL进行房地产投资项目的敏感性分析。通过敏感性分析,可以研究各种不确定因素变动对项目经济效果的影响程度,了解投资项目的风险根源和风险大小,还可以筛选出若干最为敏感的因素,有利于集中力量对他们进行研究,重点调查和搜集资料,尽量降低因素的不确定性,进而减少方案风险。本文主要对房地产投资项目的实例进行了单因素敏感性分析和多因素敏感性分析,找出了影响房地产开发项目的敏感因素,并针对敏感性因素提出了相应的解决办法。     

工学结合模式的数据库课程教学改革的研究

VFP数据库课程是开发管理信息系统的核心课程,也是强调理论和实践相结合并重视实践的专业基础课程.本文分析了目前教学中存在的缺点,采用工学结合新的教学模式,对传统的教学方法和手段进行了教学改革研究,目的是提高学生实践动手能力和创新能力.     

论人行征信系统基层运用效果

本文对企业(个人)征信系统的使用情况进行了调查,对系统使用中存在的问题进行分析、探讨,并提出了系统功能拓展的几点建议。     

对工程项目管理信息系统的探讨

分析国内工程项目管理信息系统开发和应用中存在的问题、通过对工程项目管理信息系统的研究，建立项目管理信息系统，为项目管理人员提供信息，作为项目管理规划、决策、控制的依据。对保证项目管理工作的顺利实施和很好地完成工程项目管理工作有很大的现实意义。     

医院病案管理信息系统的开发与应用

随着计算机、信息、存储等技术的快速发展,利用这些技术提高医院管理及工作效率已经成为必需。建设高效、科学的病案管理系统,实现安全海量数据存储,快速、便捷索引,一站式数据服务是一个值得研究的课题。本文从课题的开发背景出发,分析了浙江妇科医院现有病案管理信息系统的现状及存在的问题。对系统进行了可行性分析与需求分析,确定在现有条件下可以开发本系统。通过对业务流程、数据流图、功能需求、数据存储需求的分析,给出了具体设计。     

信息管理与信息系统专业“管理信息系统”课程教学探讨

管理信息系统(Management Information System,MIs)课程是信息管理与信息系统专业的一门核心主干课程.本文针对信息管理与信息专业的特点,根据管理信息系统课程的性质,分析了课程教学中存在的主要问题,并结合自身教学实际,对课程教学的改革与实践进行了探讨.     

价值链分析在MIS开发战略研究中的应用

管理信息系统的战略开发研究是管理信息系统开发中极为重要的工作,只有制定了正确的管理信息系统开发战略,才能设计成功一个获得用户满意的管理信息系统。在管理信息系统战略研究中可以采用外部价值链和内部价值链分析方法确定管理信息系统的开发战略重点。     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Unknown Parameters in Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment

The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.     

管理信息系统(MIS) :背景、核心课程、学术流派及 主要国际学术会议与刊物评介

管理信息系统(management information system, MIS)是一门新兴的交叉学科.简介了这一学科创立的背景, 国际MIS 学科核心课程, 当今世界MIS学科领域的主要学术流派及主要的国际学术会议及刊物,以期中国MIS领域的专家学者更好地知已知彼,为在国际MIS学术刊物上发表更多的学术论文提供一些参考建议.     

管理信息系统(MIS) :背景、核心课程、学术流派及 主要国际学术会议与刊物评介

管理信息系统(management information system , MIS) 是一门新兴的交叉学科. 简介了这一 学科创立的背景, 国际MIS 学科核心课程, 当今世界MIS 学科领域的主要学术流派及主要的 国际学术会议及刊物,以期中国MIS 领域的专家学者更好地知已知彼,为在国际MIS 学术刊物 上发表更多的学术论文提供一些参考建议.     

The Use of PBPK Models to Inform Human Health Risk Assessment: Case Study on Perchlorate and Radioiodide Human Lifestage Models

Physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are often submitted to or selected by agencies, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, for consideration for application in human health risk assessment (HHRA). Recently, U.S. EPA evaluated the human PBPK models for perchlorate and radioiodide for their ability to estimate the relative sensitivity of perchlorate inhibition on thyroidal radioiodide uptake for various population groups and lifestages. The most well‐defined mode of action of the environmental contaminant, perchlorate, is competitive inhibition of thyroidal iodide uptake by the sodium‐iodide symporter (NIS). In this analysis, a six‐step framework for PBPK model evaluation was followed, and with a few modifications, the models were determined to be suitable for use in HHRA to evaluate relative sensitivity among human lifestages. Relative sensitivity to perchlorate was determined by comparing the PBPK model predicted percent inhibition of thyroidal radioactive iodide uptake (RAIU) by perchlorate for different lifestages. A limited sensitivity analysis indicated that model parameters describing urinary excretion of perchlorate and iodide were particularly important in prediction of RAIU inhibition; therefore, a range of biologically plausible values available in the peer‐reviewed literature was evaluated. Using the updated PBPK models, the greatest sensitivity to RAIU inhibition was predicted to be the near‐term fetus (gestation week 40) compared to the average adult and other lifestages; however, when exposure factors were taken into account, newborns were found to be populations that need further evaluation and consideration in a risk assessment for perchlorate.     

Sensitivity Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model Using Analysis of Variance

This article demonstrates application of sensitivity analysis to risk assessment models with two-dimensional probabilistic frameworks that distinguish between variability and uncertainty. A microbial food safety process risk (MFSPR) model is used as a test bed. The process of identifying key controllable inputs and key sources of uncertainty using sensitivity analysis is challenged by typical characteristics of MFSPR models such as nonlinearity, thresholds, interactions, and categorical inputs. Among many available sensitivity analysis methods, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is evaluated in comparison to commonly used methods based on correlation coefficients. In a two-dimensional risk model, the identification of key controllable inputs that can be prioritized with respect to risk management is confounded by uncertainty. However, as shown here, ANOVA provided robust insights regarding controllable inputs most likely to lead to effective risk reduction despite uncertainty. ANOVA appropriately selected the top six important inputs, while correlation-based methods provided misleading insights. Bootstrap simulation is used to quantify uncertainty in ranks of inputs due to sampling error. For the selected sample size, differences in F values of 60% or more were associated with clear differences in rank order between inputs. Sensitivity analysis results identified inputs related to the storage of ground beef servings at home as the most important. Risk management recommendations are suggested in the form of a consumer advisory for better handling and storage practices.     

逆向供应链中电子废弃产品回收定价和补贴策略研究

随着废弃电子产品的大量涌现和社会环保意识的增强,废弃电子产品的回收处理成为社会关注的热点问题之一。在现有的文献研究中,更多的是从逆向供应链系统化的视角关注价格或税收政策对回收商或处理商的运营效率、积极性的影响,逆向供应链激励的关键问题即如何确定回收价格和补贴方面的研究却较少见。本文基于社会福利最大化的视角,建立斯塔克伯格博弈模型（社会福利模型）来确定逆向供应链分散管理中的回收价格和社会最优补贴费,该模型可以检验分散管理系统（环保局作为领导者、MIS和回收商作为追随者）中回收逆向供应链的回收价格和补贴的激励效应。通过社会福利模型和资金平衡模型的比较,以及比较案例的数值演算,结果发现：达到市场最优销售数量和向顾客提供回收废弃电子产品的最优奖金的状况下,销售商和回收商处于平衡状态;社会福利模型中窒息价格、零奖金对应的基准收集数量、相对于奖金的收集量敏感度等因素对社会福利的影响均优于资金平衡模型。     

On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment

A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)^(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. ⁴ than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables.