Using geotagged tweets to track population movements to and from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria

Population and Environment - After a disaster, there is an urgent need for information on population mobility. Our analysis examines the suitability of Twitter data for measuring post-disaster...     

Puerto Rico exodus: long-term economic headwinds prove stronger than Hurricane Maria

Population and Environment - In September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico causing 102 billion worth of damages, demolishing the electric grid and severely affecting essential...     

Investigating the impact of Hurricane Maria on an ongoing birth cohort in Puerto Rico

Population and Environment - Prior to Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico already had 200+ hazardous waste sites, significant contamination of water resources, and among the highest rates of preterm birth...     

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period.     

Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas

This article examines the decision of Hurricane Katrina evacuees to return to their pre-Katrina areas and documents how the composition of the Katrina-affected region changed over time. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we show that an evacuee’s age, family income, and the severity of damage in an evacuee’s county of origin are important determinants of whether an evacuee returned during the first year after the storm. Blacks were less likely to return than whites, but this difference is primarily related to the geographical pattern of storm damage rather than to race per se. The difference between the composition of evacuees who returned and the composition of evacuees who did not return is the primary force behind changes in the composition of the affected areas in the first two years after the storm. Katrina is associated with substantial shifts in the racial composition of the affected areas (namely, a decrease in the percentage of residents who are black) and an increasing presence of Hispanics. Katrina is also associated with an increase in the percentage of older residents, a decrease in the percentage of residents with low income/education, and an increase in the percentage of residents with high income/education.     

The psychic costs of migration: evidence from Irish return migrants

Within the economics literature, the ‘psychic costs’ of migration have been incorporated into theoretical models since Sjaastad (J Polit Econ 70:80–93, 1962). However, the existence of such costs has rarely been investigated in empirical papers. In this paper, we look at the psychic costs of migration by using alcohol problems as an indicator. Rather than comparing immigrants and natives, we look at the native-born in a single country and compare those who have lived away for a period of their lives and those who have not. We use data from the first wave of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing which is a large, nationally representative sample of older Irish adults. We find that men who lived away are more likely to have suffered from alcohol problems than men who stayed. For women, we again see a higher incidence of alcohol problems for short-term migrants. However, long-term female migrants are less likely to have suffered from alcohol problems. For these women, it seems that migration provided psychic benefits, and this is consistent with findings from other research which showed how migration provided economic independence to this group. The results remain when we adjust for endogeneity and when we use propensity score matching methods.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

Pre-hurricane linkages between poverty,families, and migration among Puerto Rican-origin children living in Puerto Rico and the United States

Population and Environment - Puerto Rican children comprise a historically vulnerable group that has garnered little attention from academics and policy makers. Then, Hurricanes Irma and Maria...     

Population estimates for Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1987

This report estimates the population for July 1, 1980, to 1987 for the Caribbean areas of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the US Virgin islands, the Pacific areas of American Samoa, Guam, and the commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The components of population change for these areas for the 1980-1987 period are also presented. Some highlights of the data follow. 1) All areas except for St. Croix and Puerto Rico are growing at a rate well above that of the US (7.4% from April 1, 1980 to July 1, 1987). 2) The Virgin Islands (population 106,100 in 1987) have shown the highest growth rate (9.8%) since 1980. Growth in St. Thomas and St. John (population 53,600) account for 72% of the total Virgin Islands growth. 3) St. Thomas and St. John together have a net immigration rate of just under 1%; St. Croix (population 52,400) had a net outmigration rate of almost 10%. 4) Puerto Rico (population 3,292,000) experienced a -7.1% net outmigration, and population increase of 95,000. 5) At 23%, Guam (population 130,400) has the largest % population growth; 21% of this growth is due to net immigration. 6) All 3 areas in the Pacific grew in the 7-year period; their overall growth rate was 23%, compared with 3% in the Caribbean areas.     

The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden

This study analyzes emigration propensities for natives and immigrants delineating among immigrant emigrants between return and onward migration. Results indicate that emigrants are positively selected in terms of upper education. Well-educated immigrants have a higher probability of leaving for third-country destinations than returning to countries of origin. Predicted age–income profiles for immigrants show that return migrants have higher adjusted mean income levels than non-emigrants up to the age of 40. Onward migrants have lower predicted income levels across the age distribution due to this group’s composition and relatively low employment levels in Sweden. Separate estimations by region of origin indicate that within each group, onward migrants are more positively selected then return migrants in terms of income.

Admission of Puerto Rico to the Union of States: Unityis the issue

Proposed Congressional legislation would allow the status of Puerto Rico—as an associated Commonwealth, an independent country, or a state of the United States—to be decided by popular plebiscite in Puerto Rico. The proposed legislation is silent on language policy, an issue of concern to many Americans and which has been much discussed in Puerto Rico. In addition to the divisiveness inherent in bilingualism, the history of the island's relations with the United States raises concern that statehood might lead to a separatist backlash possibly accompanied by violent unrest. The authors urge wider debate and a more deliberate approach to union: one that does not attempt to displace the Spanish tradition but one which protects the traditional language unity of the United States.The authors are public policy analysts who have worked extensively on issues relating to the status of English in the United States. The views expressed in this article are their own, and do not necessarily reflect those of any group or constituency.     

Estimates of the population of Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1986

This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1980 to 1986 for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Census counts for 1980 are also shown for each of the areas. Components of population change for these areas for the 1980-1986 period are also shown. Most of the statistics used to prepare the area estimates were obtained from the local governments of the outlying areas. Except for Puerto Rico, all of the areas estimated are growing at a rate well above that of the US (64% from April 1, 1980 to July 1, 1986). Of the areas, Guam has exhibited the highest % of growth since 1980--19.6%. Although Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have increased in population since 1890, both experienced population declines between 1985 and 1986. The Virgin Islands' population declined by 1.2%, from 110,800 to 109,500, while Puerto Rico's decreased by 3%, from 3,282,000 to 3,274,000.     

The transition to parenthood in Puerto Rico: Occupational status and the timing of first births

This study examines the relationship between occupational status and fertility timing during a period of rapid development in Puerto Rico. Our fundamental hypothesis is that women with higher status occupations face greater opportunity costs than those with less valued jobs and therefore will be more likely to postpone parenthood until later ages than women without such high costs. We test this hypothesis using event history techniques with data from the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, an island-wide survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49. The analysis examines the effects of occupational status on the timing of first births, and finds strong support for the basic hypothesis, especially regarding the post-ponement of teen births. After the teen years, the effects are less pronounced. Overall, it appears that employment opportunities have played an important role in childbearing decisions in Puerto Rico.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, Colorado, 30 April–2 May 1992.     

Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems

In this research brief, we explore how places affected by natural disasters recover their populations through indirect, or “stage,” migration. Specifically, we consider the idea that post-disaster impediments (e.g., housing and property damage) in disaster-affected areas spawn migration flows toward and, over time, to disaster-affected areas through intermediary destinations. Taking as our case Orleans Parish over a 5-year period after Hurricane Katrina, we show that stage migration accounted for up to about one-fourth of population recovery. We close by discussing the implications, limitations, and potential extensions of our work.     

Kidnap risks and migration: evidence from Colombia

Using a unique data set from the major Colombian cities collected between 2000–2003 and with information on more than 12,000 households, this paper studies the relationship between the kidnap risk a household faces with its migration decisions. We find evidence that exposure to such risk induces households to react sending some of their members to an international destination but not necessarily to a domestic one. Estimates are robust to the inclusion of several household characteristics usual in the migration literature, other crime risks, reported feelings of insecurity of the household, and an alternative measure of kidnap risk.     

Economic opportunity in mexico and return migration from the United States

I analyze the influence of the economic characteristics of origin area on trip duration for Mexican migrants in the United States. I argue that migrants from economically dynamic areas in Mexico with favorable opportunities for employment and small capital investment have a larger incentive to stay in the United States longer and to withstand the psychic costs of separation from family and friends than do migrants from economically stagnant areas in Mexico, where the productive uses of savings are severely limited. In line with this argument we should expect investment opportunities in migrants’ origin areas to be associated positively with migrants’ trip duration in the United States. To test this hypothesis I use individual- and household-level data on U.S migration experience collected in 13 Mexican communities. Evidence from parametric hazards models supports the idea that economic characteristics of origin areas influence the motivations and strategies of Mexican migrants in the United States.     

Self-selection and return migration: Israeli-born Jews returning home from the United States during the 1980s

Abstract. This paper analyzes self-selection of returning immigrants. We propose an empirical model for this purpose, and apply it to Israeli-born immigrants who arrived in the United States during 1970–79 and returned to Israel during 1980–89. The results, based on analyses of the 5 per cent Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) of the 1980 and 1990 United States censuses, suggest that those who return from the United States to Israel have reached a higher level at school than those who remain in the United States. However, the income analysis suggests that, at each schooling level, those who returned to Israel would have been less successful in the United States labour market than Israelis of similar schooling (and other measured characteristics) who remained in the United States. These results were corroborated using Israeli census data that include information on returning Israelis.     

The return migration patterns of Canadian seniors: insights from the 1991 cancer cohort study

Journal of Population Research - Roughly one-fifth of all Canadians leave their birth province, usually as young adults, to seek opportunities in other parts of the country (or beyond, although we...     

Drought and migration: an analysis of the effects of drought on temporary labor and return migration from a migrant-sending area in Nepal

Population and Environment - Although the relationship between drought – a dimension of climate change – and migration has been explored in a number of settings, prior research...