The repair alert models with fixed and random effects

This article extends a random preventive maintenance scheme, called repair alert model, when there exist environmental variables that effect on system lifetimes. It can be used for implementing age-dependent maintenance policies on engineering devices. In other words, consider a device that works for a job and is subject to failure at a random time X, and the maintenance crew can avoid the failure by a possible replacement at some random time Z. The new model is flexible to including covariates with both fixed and random effects. The problem of estimating parameters is also investigated in details. Here, the observations are in the form of random signs censoring data (RSCD) with covariates. Therefore, this article generalizes derived statistical inferences on the basis of RSCD albeit without covariates in past literature. To do this, it is assumed that the system lifetime distribution belongs to the log-location-scale family of distributions. A real dataset is also analyzed on basis of the results obtained.     

An Extended Sequential Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Model with Improvement Factors

This article presents a generalization of the imperfect sequential preventive maintenance (PM) policy with minimal repair. As failures occur, the system experiences one of two types of failures: a Type-I failure (minor), rectified by a minimal repair; or a Type-II failure (catastrophic) that calls for an unplanned maintenance. In each maintenance period, the system is maintained following the occurrence of a Type-II failure or at age, whichever takes place first. At the Nth maintenance, the system is replaced rather than maintained. The imperfect PM model adopted in this study incorporates with improvement factors in the hazard-rate function. Taking age-dependent minimal repair costs into consideration, the objective consists of finding the optimal PM and replacement schedule that minimize the expected cost per unit time over an infinite time-horizon.     

Adaptive Sequential Preventive Maintenance Policy and Bayesian Consideration

This article proposes an adaptive sequential preventive maintenance (PM) policy for which an improvement factor is newly introduced to measure the PM effect at each PM. For this model, the PM actions are conducted at different time intervals so that an adaptive method needs to be utilized to determine the optimal PM times minimizing the expected cost rate per unit time. At each PM, the hazard rate is reduced by an amount affected by the improvement factor which depends on the number of PM's preceding the current one. We derive mathematical formulas to evaluate the expected cost rate per unit time by incorporating the PM cost, repair cost, and replacement cost. Assuming that the failure times follow a Weibull distribution, we propose an optimal sequential PM policy by minimizing the expected cost rate. Furthermore, we consider Bayesian aspects for the sequential PM policy to discuss its optimality. The effect of some parameters and the functional forms of improvement factor on the optimal PM policy is measured numerically by sensibility analysis and some numerical examples are presented for illustrative purposes.     

THE ASYMPTOTIC EQUIVALENCE OF THE FISHER INFORMATION MATRICES FOR TYPE I AND TYPE II CENSORED DATA FROM LOCATION-SCALE FAMILIES

Type I and Type II censored data arise frequently in controlled laboratory studies concerning time to a particular event (e.g., death of an animal or failure of a physical device). Log-location-scale distributions (e.g., Weibull, lognormal, and loglogistic) are commonly used to model the resulting data. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally used to obtain parameter estimates when the data are censored. The Fisher information matrix can be used to obtain large-sample approximate variances and covariances of the ML estimates or to estimate these variances and covariances from data. The derivations of the Fisher information matrix proceed differently for Type I (time censoring) and Type II (failure censoring) because the number of failures is random in Type I censoring, but length of the data collection period is random in Type II censoring. Under regularity conditions (met with the above-mentioned log-location-scale distributions), we outline the different derivations and show that the Fisher information matrices for Type I and Type II censoring are asymptotically equivalent.     

Availability of a periodically inspected system with random repair or replacement times

The availability of systems undergoing periodic inspections is studied in this paper. A perfect repair or replacement of a failed system is carried out requiring either a constant or a random length of time. In Model A, the system is assumed to be as good as new on completion of inspection or repair. For Model B, no maintenance or corrective actions are taken at the time of inspection if the system is still working, and the condition of the system is assumed to be the same as that before the inspection. Unlike that studied in a related paper by Sarkar and Sarkar (J. Statist. Plann. Inference 91 (2000) 77.), our model assumes that the periodic inspections take place at fixed time points after repair or replacement in case of failure. Some general results on the instantaneous availability and the steady-state availability for the two models are presented under the assumption of random repair or replacement time.     

Estimation from Censored Data with Incomplete Information

Phillips and Sweeting [J. R. Statist. Soc. B 58 (1996) 775–783.] considered estimation of the parameter of the exponential distribution with censored failure time data when there is incomplete knowledge of the censoring times. It was shown that, under particular models for the censoring mechanism and censoring errors, it will usually be safe to ignore such errors provided they are not expected to be too large. A flexible model is introduced which includes the extreme cases of no censoring errors and no information on the censoring values. The effect of alternative assumptions about knowledge of the censoring values on the estimation of failure rate is investigated.     

Tobit regression for modeling mean survival time using data subject to multiple sources of censoring

Mean survival time is often of inherent interest in medical and epidemiologic studies. In the presence of censoring and when covariate effects are of interest, Cox regression is the strong default, but mostly due to convenience and familiarity. When survival times are uncensored, covariate effects can be estimated as differences in mean survival through linear regression. Tobit regression can validly be performed through maximum likelihood when the censoring times are fixed (ie, known for each subject, even in cases where the outcome is observed). However, Tobit regression is generally inapplicable when the response is subject to random right censoring. We propose Tobit regression methods based on weighted maximum likelihood which are applicable to survival times subject to both fixed and random censoring times. Under the proposed approach, known right censoring is handled naturally through the Tobit model, with inverse probability of censoring weighting used to overcome random censoring. Essentially, the re‐weighting data are intended to represent those that would have been observed in the absence of random censoring. We develop methods for estimating the Tobit regression parameter, then the population mean survival time. A closed form large‐sample variance estimator is proposed for the regression parameter estimator, with a semiparametric bootstrap standard error estimator derived for the population mean. The proposed methods are easily implementable using standard software. Finite‐sample properties are assessed through simulation. The methods are applied to a large cohort of patients wait‐listed for kidney transplantation.     

Parameters estimation for weibull distributed lifetimes under progressive censoring with random removeals

This paper considers the estimation problem when lifetimes are Weibull distributed and are collected under a Type-II progressive censoring with random removals, where the number of units removed at each failure time follows a uniform discrete distribution. The expected time of this censoring plan is discussed and compared numerically to that under a Type II censoring without removal. Maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters and their asymptotic variances are derived.     

Optimal scheduling replacement policies for a system with multiple random works

From the economical viewpoint in reliability theory, this paper addresses a scheduling replacement problem for a single operating system which works at random times for multiple jobs. The system is subject to stochastic failure which results the imperfect maintenance activity based on some random failure mechanism: minimal repair due to type-I (repairable) failure, or corrective replacement due to type-II (non-repairable) failure. Three scheduling models for the system with multiple jobs are considered: a single work, N tandem works, and N parallel works. To control the deterioration process, the preventive replacement is planned to undergo at a scheduling time T or the job's completion time of for each model. The objective is to determine the optimal scheduling parameters (T^* or N^*) that minimizes the mean cost rate function in a finite time horizon for each model. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed analytical model. Because the framework and analysis are general, the proposed models extend several existing results.     

Inference in the Pareto distribution based on progressive Type II censoring with random removals

This study considers the estimation problem for the Pareto distribution based on progressive Type II censoring with random removals. The number of units removed at each failure time has a discrete uniform distribution. We are going to use the maximum likelihood method to obtain the estimator of parameter. The expectation and variance of the maximum likelihood estimator will be derived. The expected time required to complete such an experiment will be computed. Some numerical results of expected test times are carried out for this type of progressive censoring and other sampling schemes.     

Comparing waiting times in a multi-stage model: A log-rank approach

A proper log-rank test for comparing two waiting (i.e. sojourn, gap) times under right censored data has been absent in the survival literature. The classical log-rank test provides a biased comparison even under independent right censoring since the censoring induced on the time since state entry depends on the entry time unless the hazards are semi-Markov. We develop test statistics for comparing K waiting time distributions from a multi-stage model in which censoring and waiting times may be dependent upon the transition history in the multi-stage model. To account for such dependent censoring, the proposed test statistics utilize an inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) approach previously employed to define estimators for the cumulative hazard and survival function for waiting times in multi-stage models. We develop the test statistics as analogues to K-sample log-rank statistics for failure time data, and weak convergence to a Gaussian limit is demonstrated. A simulation study demonstrates the appropriateness of the test statistics in designs that violate typical independence assumptions for multi-stage models, under which naive test statistics for failure time data perform poorly, and illustrates the superiority of the test under proportional hazards alternatives to a Mann–Whitney type test. We apply the test statistics to an existing data set of burn patients.     

A GLM approach to step-stress accelerated life testing with interval censoring

In this paper, we present a statistical inference procedure for the step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT) model with Weibull failure time distribution and interval censoring via the formulation of generalized linear model (GLM). The likelihood function of an interval censored SSALT is in general too complicated to obtain analytical results. However, by transforming the failure time to an exponential distribution and using a binomial random variable for failure counts occurred in inspection intervals, a GLM formulation with a complementary log-log link function can be constructed. The estimations of the regression coefficients used for the Weibull scale parameter are obtained through the iterative weighted least square (IWLS) method, and the shape parameter is updated by a direct maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. The confidence intervals for these parameters are estimated through bootstrapping. The application of the proposed GLM approach is demonstrated by an industrial example.     

Statistical analysis of Weibull distributed lifetime data under Type II progressive censoring with binomial removals

This paper considers the analysis of Weibull distributed lifetime data observed under Type II progressive censoring with random removals, where the number of units removed at each failure time follows a binomial distribution. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters and their asymptotic variances are derived. The expected time required to complete the life test under this censoring scheme is investigated.     

Semiparametric estimation method for accelerated failure time model with dependent censoring

Independent censoring is commonly assumed in survival analysis. However, it may be questionable when censoring is related to event time. We model the event and censoring time marginally through accelerated failure time models, and model their association by a known copula. An iteration algorithm is proposed to estimate the regression parameters. Simulation results show the improvement of the proposed method compared to the naive method under independent censoring. Sensitivity analysis gives the evidences that the proposed method can obtain reasonable estimates even when the forms of copula are misspecified. We illustrate its application by analyzing prostate cancer data.     

Statistical inference for the accelerated failure time model under two-stage generalized case–cohort design

Abstract

In this article, we propose a two-stage generalized case–cohort design and develop an efficient inference procedure for the data collected with this design. In the first-stage, we observe the failure time, censoring indicator and covariates which are easy or cheap to measure, and in the second-stage, select a subcohort by simple random sampling and a subset of failures in remaining subjects from the first-stage subjects to observe their exposures which are different or expensive to measure. We derive estimators for regression parameters in the accelerated failure time model under the two-stage generalized case–cohort design through the estimated augmented estimating equation and the kernel function method. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is evaluated through the simulation studies. The proposed method is applied to a real data set from the National Wilm’s Tumor Study Group.     

Reliability analysis of masked data in adaptive step-stress partially accelerated lifetime tests with progressive removal

By combining the progressive hybrid censoring with the step-stress partially accelerated lifetime test, we propose an adaptive step-stress partially accelerated lifetime test, which allows random changing of the number of step-stress levels according to the pre-fixed censoring number and time points. Thus, the time expenditure and economic cost of the test will be reduced greatly. Based on the Lindley-distributed tampered failure rate (TFR) model with masked system lifetime data, the BFGS method is introduced in the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which overcomes the difficulties of the vague maximization procedure in the M-step. Asymptotic confidence intervals of components' distribution parameters are also investigated according to the missing information principle. As comparison, the Bayesian estimation and the highest probability density (HPD) credible intervals are obtained by using adaptive rejection sampling. Furthermore, the reliability of the system and components are estimated at a specified time under usual and severe operating conditions. Finally, a numerical simulation example is presented to illustrate the performance of our proposed method.     

BACKWARD ESTIMATION OF STOCHASTIC PROCESSES WITH FAILURE EVENTS AS TIME ORIGINS

Stochastic processes often exhibit sudden systematic changes in pattern a short time before certain failure events. Examples include increase in medical costs before death and decrease in CD4 counts before AIDS diagnosis. To study such terminal behavior of stochastic processes, a natural and direct way is to align the processes using failure events as time origins. This paper studies backward stochastic processes counting time backward from failure events, and proposes one-sample nonparametric estimation of the mean of backward processes when follow-up is subject to left truncation and right censoring. We will discuss benefits of including prevalent cohort data to enlarge the identifiable region and large sample properties of the proposed estimator with related extensions. A SEER-Medicare linked data set is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Semiparametric estimation of treatment effect with time-lagged response in the presence of informative censoring

In many randomized clinical trials, the primary response variable, for example, the survival time, is not observed directly after the patients enroll in the study but rather observed after some period of time (lag time). It is often the case that such a response variable is missing for some patients due to censoring that occurs when the study ends before the patient’s response is observed or when the patients drop out of the study. It is often assumed that censoring occurs at random which is referred to as noninformative censoring; however, in many cases such an assumption may not be reasonable. If the missing data are not analyzed properly, the estimator or test for the treatment effect may be biased. In this paper, we use semiparametric theory to derive a class of consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for the treatment effect parameter which are applicable when the response variable is right censored. The baseline auxiliary covariates and post-treatment auxiliary covariates, which may be time-dependent, are also considered in our semiparametric model. These auxiliary covariates are used to derive estimators that both account for informative censoring and are more efficient then the estimators which do not consider the auxiliary covariates.     

Non parametric hazard estimation with dependent censoring using penalized likelihood and an assumed copula

This article introduces a novel non parametric penalized likelihood hazard estimation when the censoring time is dependent on the failure time for each subject under observation. More specifically, we model this dependence using a copula, and the method of maximum penalized likelihood (MPL) is adopted to estimate the hazard function. We do not consider covariates in this article. The non negatively constrained MPL hazard estimation is obtained using a multiplicative iterative algorithm. The consistency results and the asymptotic properties of the proposed hazard estimator are derived. The simulation studies show that our MPL estimator under dependent censoring with an assumed copula model provides a better accuracy than the MPL estimator under independent censoring if the sign of dependence is correctly specified in the copula function. The proposed method is applied to a real dataset, with a sensitivity analysis performed over various values of correlation between failure and censoring times.     

Checking the Grouped Data Version of the Cox Model for Interval-grouped Survival Data

Abstract.  Epidemiology research often entails the analysis of failure times subject to grouping. In large cohorts interval grouping also offers a feasible choice of data reduction to actually facilitate an analysis of the data. Based on an underlying Cox proportional hazards model for the exact failure times one may deduce a grouped data version of this model which may then be used to analyse the data. The model bears a lot of resemblance to a generalized linear model, yet due to the nature of data one also needs to incorporate censoring. In the case of non-trivial censoring this precludes model checking procedures based on ordinary residuals as calculation of these requires knowledge of the censoring distribution. In this paper, we represent interval grouped data in a dynamical way using a counting process approach. This enables us to identify martingale residuals which can be computed without knowledge of the censoring distribution. We use these residuals to construct graphical as well as numerical model checking procedures. An example from epidemiology is provided.