Estimation of an Ergodic Diffusion from Discrete Observations

We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process X , with ergodic property, with drift b ( x , θ) and diffusion coefficient a ( x , σ) depending on unknown parameters θ and σ. We are interested in the joint estimation of (θ, σ). For that purpose, we dispose of a discretized trajectory, observed at n equidistant times tⁿ_i = ih_n , 1 ≤ i ≤ n . We assume that h_n ← 0 and nh_n ←∞. Under the condition nh_n^p ← 0 for an arbitrary integer p , we exhibit a contrast dependent on p which provides us with an asymptotically normal and efficient estimator of (θ, σ).     

Testing for a change in covariance operator

The paper considers a problem of equality of two covariance operators. Using functional principal component analysis, a method for testing equality of K largest eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenfunctions, together with its generalization to a corresponding change point problem is suggested. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are presented.     

Computation of the stationary distribution of a markov chain

Eight algorithms are considered for the computation of the stationary distribution l´ of a finite Markov chain with associated probability transition matrix P. The recommended algorithm is based on solving l´(I—P+eú)=ú, where e is the column vector of ones and u´ is a row vector satisfying u´e ≠0.An error analysis is presented for any such u including the choices ú= e_jP and ú=e´_j where é_j is the jth row of the identity matrix. Computationalcomparisons between five of the algorithms are made based on twenty 8 x 8, twenty 20 x 20, and twenty 40 x 40 transition matrices. The matrix (I—P+eú)^?1 is shown to be a non-singular generalized inverse of I—P when the unit root of P is simple and úe ≠ 0. A simple closed form expression is obtained for the Moore-Penrose inverse of I—P whenI—P has nullity one     

Testing for a unit root in a stationary ESTAR process

This article develops a statistic for testing the null of a linear unit root process against the alternative of a stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. The asymptotic distribution of the test is shown to be nonstandard but nuisance parameter-free and hence critical values are obtained by simulations. Simulations show that the proposed statistic has considerable power under various data generating scenarios. Applications to real exchange rates also illustrate the ability of our test to reject null of unit root when some of the alternative tests do not.     

Improved estimation for the autocovariances of a Gaussian stationary process

For a Gaussian stationary process with mean μ and autocovariance function γ(·), we consider to improve the usual sample autocovariances with respect to the mean squares error (MSE) loss. For the cases μ=0 and μ≠0, we propose sort of empirical Bayes type estimators Γ? and Γ?, respectively. Then their MSE improvements upon the usual sample autocovariances are evaluated in terms of the spectral density of the process. Concrete examples for them are provided. We observe that if the process is near to a unit root process the improvement becomes quite large. Thus, consideration for estimators of this type seems important in many fields, e.g., econometrics.     

Gaussian pseudo-likelihood estimation for stationary processes on a lattice

For a wide class of second-order stationary spatial processes on a lattice, the statistical properties of the maximum Gaussian pseudo-likelihood estimators are studied. The estimators are natural as they imitate the theoretical prototypes of spatial best linear prediction. Under certain conditions, their asymptotic normality is established with the elements of the asymptotic variance matrix being simple functions of the variable auto-covariances. A short simulation study and a data example favor the use of the Gaussian pseudo-likelihood when the spatial covariance dependence is to be estimated.     

Multivariate analysis with a stationary time series covariance structure

When a covariance matrix has a pattern associated with a stationary time series on the errors, it is shown how certain hypothesis testing problems In multivariate analysis can be transformed into a product of two similar multivariate problems that each involve unpatterned covariance matrices.     

Testing the Null Hypothesis of Nonstationary Long Memory Against the Alternative Hypothesis of a Nonlinear Ergodic Model

Interest in the interface of nonstationarity and nonlinearity has been increasing in the econometric literature. This paper provides a formal method of testing for nonstationary long memory against the alternative of a particular form of nonlinear ergodic processes; namely, exponential smooth transition autoregressive processes. In this regard, the current paper provides a significant generalization to existing unit root tests by allowing the null hypothesis to encompass a much larger class of nonstationary processes. The asymptotic theory associated with the proposed Wald statistic is derived, and Monte Carlo simulation results confirm that the Wald statistics have reasonably correct size and good power in small samples. In an application to real interest rates and the Yen real exchange rates, we find that the tests are able to distinguish between these competing processes in most cases, supporting the long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Fisher hypotheses. But, there are a few cases in which long memory and nonlinear ergodic processes display similar characteristics and are thus confused with each other in small samples.     

Statistical control charts for monitoring the mean of a stationary process

Recently statistical process control (SPC) methodologies have been developed to accommodate autocorrelated data. A primary method to deal with autocorrelated data is the use of residual charts. Although this methodology has the advantage that it can be applied to any autocorrelated data it needs time series modeling efforts. In addition for a X residual chart the detection capability is sometimes small compared to the X chart and EWMA chart. Zhang (1998) proposed the EWMAST chart which is constructed by charting the EWMA statistic for stationary processes to monitor the process mean. The performance of the EWMAST chart the X chart the X residual chart and other charts were compared in Zhang (1998). In this paper comparisons are made among the EWMAST chart the CUSUM residual chart and EWMA residual chart as well as the X residual chart and X chart via the average run length.     

A Note on Consistent Estimation of Multivariate Parameters in Ergodic Diffusion Models

Certain aspects of maximum likelihood estimation for ergodic diffusions are studied via recently developed empirical process theory for martingales. This approach enables us to remove some undesirable regularity conditions that usually appear in the statistical literature on ergodic diffusions. In particular, dimension dependent conditions for the existence of a continuous likelihood and for consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator turn out to be unnecessary.     

On Empirical Processes for Ergodic Diffusions and Rates of Convergence of M-estimators

Abstract. This paper contributes to the development of empirical process theory for ergodic diffusions. We prove an entropy‐type maximal inequality for the increments of the empirical process of an ergodic diffusion. The inequality is used to study the rate of convergence of M‐estimators.     

The stationary bootstrap for the joint distribution of sum and maximum of stationary sequences

In this work, the stationary bootstrap procedure is used to estimate the joint distribution of sum and maximum of strictly stationary strong mixing sequences. Asymptotic validity is established for stationary bootstrapping of the joint distribution of sum and maximum.     

Simulation of a stationary autoregression: A characterization of the normal distribution

Simulating a stationary AR(p), X_t = ∑^p_i=1α_iX_t−i + Z_t, when the innovations {Z_t} are assumed to be i.i.d. is straightforward. Starting the process in the stationary state, however, requires generation of (X₁,X₂,…,X_p) from the stationary p-dimensional distribution. When Z_t is normal this may be achieved by generating X_i as a linear function of X₁,X₂,…,X_i−1 and an independent normal variate for i = 2,3,…, p. It is shown that the ability to initialize a stationary AR(p) in this way characterizes the normal distribution.     

On perturbations of Stein operator

In this article, we obtain a Stein operator for the sum of n independent random variables (rvs) which is shown as the perturbation of the negative binomial (NB) operator. Comparing the operator with NB operator, we derive the error bounds for total variation distance by matching parameters. Also, three-parameter approximation for such a sum is considered and is shown to improve the existing bounds in the literature. Finally, an application of our results to a function of waiting time for (k₁, k₂)-events is given.     

A Note on Ergodic Processes Prediction via Estimation of the Conditional Mode Function

We establish the uniform almost-sure convergence of a kernel estimate of the conditional density for an ergodic process. A useful application to the prediction of the ergodic process via the conditional mode function is also given.     

Random sampling of long-memory stationary processes

This paper investigates the second order properties of a stationary process after random sampling. While a short memory process gives always rise to a short memory one, we prove that long-memory can disappear when the sampling law has heavy enough tails. We prove that under rather general conditions the existence of the spectral density is preserved by random sampling. We also investigate the effects of deterministic sampling on seasonal long-memory.     

Simulation of stationary Gaussian vector fields

In earlier work we described a circulant embedding approach for simulating scalar-valued stationary Gaussian random fields on a finite rectangular grid, with the covariance function prescribed. Here, we explain how the circulant embedding approach can be used to simulate Gaussian vector fields. As in the scalar case, the simulation procedure is theoretically exact if a certain non-negativity condition is satisfied. In the vector setting, this exactness condition takes the form of a nonnegative definiteness condition on a certain set of Hermitian matrices. The main computational tool used is the Fast Fourier Transform. Consequently, when implemented appropriately, the procedure is highly efficient, in terms of both CPU time and storage.