Confidence Intervals for Current Status Data

Abstract.  The likelihood ratio statistic for testing pointwise hypotheses about the survival time distribution in the current status model can be inverted to yield confidence intervals (CIs). One advantage of this procedure is that CIs can be formed without estimating the unknown parameters that figure in the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the distribution function. We discuss the likelihood ratio-based CIs for the distribution function and the quantile function and compare these intervals to several different intervals based on the MLE. The quantiles of the limiting distribution of the MLE are estimated using various methods including parametric fitting, kernel smoothing and subsampling techniques. Comparisons are carried out both for simulated data and on a data set involving time to immunization against rubella. The comparisons indicate that the likelihood ratio-based intervals are preferable from several perspectives.     

Point estimation after early stopping in a repeated measures trial

When the individual measurements are statistically independent, the maximum likelihood estimator calculated at the end of a sequential procedure overestimates the underlying effect. There are many clinical trials in which we are interested in comparing changes in responses between two treatment groups sequentially. Lee and DeMets (1991, JASA 86, 757–762) proposed a group sequential method for comparing rates of change when a response variable is measured for eaeh patient at successive follow-up visits. They assumed that the response follows the linear mixed effects model and derived the asymptotic joint distribution of the sequentially computed statistics. In this article, we consider the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), the median unbiased estimator (MUE) and the midpoint of a 100(1-α)% confidence interval as point estimators for the rate of change in the linear mixed effects model, and investigate their properties by Monte Carlo simulation.     

Inference for the scale parameter of lifetime distribution of k-unit parallel system based on progressively censored data

In this paper, inference for the scale parameter of lifetime distribution of a k-unit parallel system is provided. Lifetime distribution of each unit of the system is assumed to be a member of a scale family of distributions. Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and confidence intervals for the scale parameter based on progressively Type-II censored sample are obtained. A β-expectation tolerance interval for the lifetime of the system is obtained. As a member of the scale family, half-logistic distribution is considered and the performance of the MLE, confidence intervals and tolerance intervals are studied using simulation.     

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR A POISSON RATE PARAMETER WITH MISCLASSIFIED COUNTS

This paper proposes a Poisson‐based model that uses both error‐free data and error‐prone data subject to misclassification in the form of false‐negative and false‐positive counts. It derives maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the Poisson rate parameter and the two misclassification parameters — the false‐negative parameter and the false‐positive parameter. It also derives expressions for the information matrix and the asymptotic variances of the MLE for the rate parameter, the MLE for the false‐positive parameter, and the MLE for the false‐negative parameter. Using these expressions the paper analyses the value of the fallible data. It studies characteristics of the new double‐sampling rate estimator via a simulation experiment and applies the new MLE estimators and confidence intervals to a real dataset.     

Empirical likelihood inference for a common mean in the presence of heteroscedasticity

The authors develop empirical likelihood (EL) based methods of inference for a common mean using data from several independent but nonhomogeneous populations. For point estimation, they propose a maximum empirical likelihood (MEL) estimator and show that it is n‐consistent and asymptotically optimal. For confidence intervals, they consider two EL based methods and show that both intervals have approximately correct coverage probabilities under large samples. Finite‐sample performances of the MEL estimator and the EL based confidence intervals are evaluated through a simulation study. The results indicate that overall the MEL estimator and the weighted EL confidence interval are superior alternatives to the existing methods.     

Minimum disparity estimation based on combined disparities: Asymptotic results

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is asymptotically efficient for most parametric models under standard regularity conditions, but it has very poor robustness properties. On the other hand some of the minimum disparity estimators like the minimum Hellinger distance estimator (MHDE) have strong robustness features but their small sample efficiency at the model turns out to be very poor compared to the MLE. Methods based on the minimization of some combined disparities can substantially improve their small sample performances without affecting their robustness properties (Park et al., 1995). All studies involving the combined disparity have so far been empirical, and there are no results on the asymptotic properties of these estimators. In view of the usefulness of these procedures this is a major gap in theory, which we try to fill through the present work. Some illustrations of the performance of the estimators and the corresponding tests are also provided.     

Sequential estimation for semiparametric models with application to the proportional hazards model

In this paper, we show that if the Euclidean parameter of a semiparametric model can be estimated through an estimating function, we can extend straightforwardly conditions by Dmitrienko and Govindarajulu [2000. Ann. Statist. 28 (5), 1472–1501] in order to prove that the estimator indexed by any regular sequence (sequential estimator), has the same asymptotic behavior as the non-sequential estimator. These conditions also allow us to obtain the asymptotic normality of the stopping rule, for the special case of sequential confidence sets. These results are applied to the proportional hazards model, for which we show that after slight modifications, the classical assumptions given by Andersen and Gill [1982. Ann. Statist. 10(4), 1100–1120] are sufficient to obtain the asymptotic behavior of the sequential version of the well-known [Cox, 1972. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B (34), 187–220] partial maximum likelihood estimator. To prove this result we need to establish a strong convergence result for the regression parameter estimator, involving mainly exponential inequalities for both continuous martingales and some basic empirical processes. A typical example of a fixed-width confidence interval is given and illustrated by a Monte Carlo study.     

Estimation of the Moment Generating Function

A number of statistical problems use the moment generating function (mgf) for purposes other than determining the moments of a distribution. If the distribution is not completely specified, then the mgf must be estimated from available data. The empirical mgf makes no assumptions concerning the underlying distribution except for the existence of the mgf. In contrast to the nonparametric approach provided by the empirical mgf, alternative estimators can be formed based on an assumed parametric model. Comparison of these approaches is considered for two parametric models; the normal and a one parameter gamma. Comparison criteria are efficiency and empirical confidence interval coverage. In general the parametric estimators outperform the empirical mgf when the model is correct. The comparisons are extended to underlying models which are two component mixtures from the distributional family assumed by the parametric estimators. Under the mixture models the superiority of the parametric estimator depends upon the model, value of the argument of the mgf, and the comparison criterion. The empirical mgf is the better estimator in some cases.     

Investigation of the performance of trimmed estimators of life time distributions with censoring

For the lifetime (or negative) exponential distribution, the trimmed likelihood estimator has been shown to be explicit in the form of a β‐trimmed mean which is representable as an estimating functional that is both weakly continuous and Fréchet differentiable and hence qualitatively robust at the parametric model. It also has high efficiency at the model. The robustness is in contrast to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) involving the usual mean which is not robust to contamination in the upper tail of the distribution. When there is known right censoring, it may be perceived that the MLE which is the most asymptotically efficient estimator may be protected from the effects of ‘outliers’ due to censoring. We demonstrate that this is not the case generally, and in fact, based on the functional form of the estimators, suggest a hybrid defined estimator that incorporates the best features of both the MLE and the β‐trimmed mean. Additionally, we study the pure trimmed likelihood estimator for censored data and show that it can be easily calculated and that the censored observations are not always trimmed. The different trimmed estimators are compared by a modest simulation study.     

Zero-inflated models and estimation in zero-inflated Poisson distribution

In this paper, we briefly overview different zero-inflated probability distributions. We compare the performance of the estimates of Poisson, Generalized Poisson, ZIP, ZIGP and ZINB models through Mean square error (MSE), bias and Standard error (SE) when the samples are generated from ZIP distribution. We propose a new estimator referred to as probability estimator (PE) of inflation parameter of ZIP distribution based on moment estimator (ME) of the mean parameter and compare its performance with ME and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) through a simulation study. We use the PE along with ME and MLE to fit ZIP distribution to various zero-inflated datasets and observe that the results do not differ significantly. We recommend using PE in place of MLE since it is easy to calculate and the simulation study in this paper demonstrates that the PE performs as good as MLE irrespective of the sample size.     

Sequential confidence intervals for the number of cells in a multinomial population

A two-sided sequential confidence interval is suggested for the number of equally probable cells in a given multinomial population with prescribed width and confidence coefficient. We establish large-sample properties of the fixed-width confidence interval procedure using a normal approximation, and some comparisons are made. In addition, a simulation study is carried out in order to investigate the finite sample behaviour of the suggested sequential interval estimation procedure.     

Likelihood inference for the component lifetime distribution based on progressively censored parallel systems data

Point and interval estimators for the scale parameter of the component lifetime distribution of a k-component parallel system are obtained when the component lifetimes are assumed to be independently and identically exponentially distributed. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter based on progressively Type-II censored system lifetimes is unique and can be obtained by a fixed-point iteration procedure. In particular, we illustrate that the Newton–Raphson method does not converge for any initial value. Furthermore, exact confidence intervals are constructed by a transformation using normalized spacings and other component lifetime distributions including Weibull distribution are discussed.     

Asymptotic expansions for sequential confidence levels in inverse linear regression

Non-linear renewal theory is used to derive second order asymptotic expansions for the coverage probability of a fixed-width sequential confidence interval for an unknown parameter xin the inverse linear regression model. These expansions are obtained for a two-stage sequential procedure, proposed by Perng and Tong (1974) for the construction of a confidence interval for x.     

Reliability inference for a general lower-truncated family of distributions under records

Based on record values, point and interval estimators are proposed in this paper for the parameters of a general lower-truncated family of distributions. Maximum likelihood and bias-corrected estimators are obtained for unknown model parameters. Based on a sufficient and complete statistic, the bias-corrected estimator is also shown to be uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator. Different exact confidence intervals and exact confidence regions are constructed for the both model and truncated parameters, and other confidence interval estimates based on asymptotic distribution theory and bootstrap approaches are obtained as well. Finally, two real-life examples and a numerical study are presented to illustrate the performance of our methods.     

Exact distribution of the MLEs of the parameters and of the quantiles of two-parameter exponential distribution under hybrid censoring

Epstein [Truncated life tests in the exponential case, Ann. Math. Statist. 25 (1954), pp. 555–564] introduced a hybrid censoring scheme (called Type-I hybrid censoring) and Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 17 (1988), pp. 1857–1870] derived the exact distribution of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) of the mean of a scaled exponential distribution based on a Type-I hybrid censored sample. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type-I and Type-II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 55 (2003), pp. 319–330] provided an alternate simpler expression for this distribution, and also developed analogous results for another hybrid censoring scheme (called Type-II hybrid censoring). The purpose of this paper is to derive the exact bivariate distribution of the MLE of the parameter vector of a two-parameter exponential model based on hybrid censored samples. The marginal distributions are derived and exact confidence bounds for the parameters are obtained. The results are also used to derive the exact distribution of the MLE of the pth quantile, as well as the corresponding confidence bounds. These exact confidence intervals are then compared with parametric bootstrap confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities. Finally, we present some numerical examples to illustrate the methods of inference developed here.     

基于梯度统计量的逆抽样下风险差的置信区间构建

通过逆抽样过程获得的分布又称为负二项分布,在流行病学研究和二分类变量分布的研究中应用极为广泛。因此,提出两种基于梯度统计量的逆抽样下风险差的置信区间的构建方法,分别依据风险差的极大似然估计(MLE)和方差最小无偏一致估计量(UMVUE)。与现有的WALD方法和得分方法相比,该方法所构建置信区间的优点在于:置信区间构建方法既不需要计算Fisher信息阵也不需要计算其逆矩阵,可使计算得以大大简化;对所提出的基于梯度统计量的置信区间构建方法进行蒙特卡洛模拟研究,模拟结果表明提出的构建方法可以得到很好的覆盖概率和较短的区间宽度。     

Statistical Inference in Partially Linear Varying-Coefficient Models with Missing Responses at Random

This article considers statistical inference for partially linear varying-coefficient models when the responses are missing at random. We propose a profile least-squares estimator for the parametric component with complete-case data and show that the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal. To avoid to estimate the asymptotic covariance in establishing confidence region of the parametric component with the normal-approximation method, we define an empirical likelihood based statistic and show that its limiting distribution is chi-squared distribution. Then, the confidence regions of the parametric component with asymptotically correct coverage probabilities can be constructed by the result. To check the validity of the linear constraints on the parametric component, we construct a modified generalized likelihood ratio test statistic and demonstrate that it follows asymptotically chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis. Then, we extend the generalized likelihood ratio technique to the context of missing data. Finally, some simulations are conducted to illustrate the proposed methods.     

Inferences on Stress-Strength Reliability from Lindley Distributions

This article deals with the estimation of the stress-strength parameter R = P(Y < X) when X and Y are independent Lindley random variables with different shape parameters. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator has explicit expression, however, its exact or asymptotic distribution is very difficult to obtain. The maximum likelihood estimator of the unknown parameter can also be obtained in explicit form. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator and it can be used to construct confidence interval of R. Different parametric bootstrap confidence intervals are also proposed. Bayes estimator and the associated credible interval based on independent gamma priors on the unknown parameters are obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Different methods are compared using simulations and one data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

Confidence Intervals for the Current Status Model

We discuss a new way of constructing pointwise confidence intervals for the distribution function in the current status model. The confidence intervals are based on the smoothed maximum likelihood estimator, using local smooth functional theory and normal limit distributions. Bootstrap methods for constructing these intervals are considered. Other methods to construct confidence intervals, using the non‐standard limit distribution of the (restricted) maximum likelihood estimator, are compared with our approach via simulations and real data applications.     

Estimation of the parameters of a truncated gamma distribution

This paper deals with the estimation of the parameters of a truncated gamma distribution over (0,τ), where τ is assumed to be a real number. We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE). The probability of nonexistence of MLE is observed to be positive. A simulation study indicates that the modified maximum likelihood estimator and the mixed estimator, which exist with probability one,are to be preferred over MLE. The bias, the mean square error, and the probability of nearness form a basis of our simulation study.