Policy simulations with a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy

In this paper, the results of various dynamic policy simulations are analyzed within the context of a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy. The model contains 35 equations and offers a consistent framework for policy analysis. It is considerably expanded on the side of the fiscal sector and usefully incorporates the interdependence between monetary and fiscal sectors and gives due attention to supply side considerations. Magnitudes of effects of sustained policy changes are analyzed for the period 1964–1965 to 1974–1975. Impact multipliers and elasticities are also analyzed. Government expenditures variables and deficit financing are shown to have substantial impact on the system whereas changes in tax-rates, discount-rates, and liquidity ratios for commercial banks are shown to have only a marginal impact. The model is used for exploring the growth potential of the economy in a forecast period of five years under alternative assumptions regarding policy options.     

Exchange rate policies simulated by means of a disequilibrium model of the Finnish economy

In this paper a model for the Finnish economy with disequilibrium in the goods and financial markets is specified and estimated by single equation methods. The transmission mechanisms of the model are studied in the framework of various devaluation simulations. The model is very sensitive, especially with respect to the prevailing credit market regime and possible regime changes. Policy effects are not so much affected by conditions in the goods market, assuming moderate policy shocks. These considerations suggest the importance in policy planning of identifying the regimes prevailing in the markets.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy in small open economies

This paper examines the relative effectiveness of the use of direct and indirect monetary policy instruments in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, by estimating a restricted Vector Autoregressive model with Exogenous Variables (VARX). The model captures the dynamic interaction of the key sectors in the economy and it accounts for the fact that the banking system in those countries is characterized by high levels of excess reserves. Also, the study assumes that the central bank conducts monetary policy using a Taylor-type rule, and it evaluates the effects of a reserve requirement policy. The results show that although a positive shock to the policy interest rate has a direct effect on commercial banks’ interest rates, there is a weak transmission to the real variables. Furthermore, an increase in the required reserve ratio is successful in reducing private sector credit and excess reserves, while at the same time alleviating pressures on the exchange rate. The findings therefore indicate that central banks in small open economies should consider using reserve requirements as a complement to interest rate policy, to achieve their macroeconomic objectives.     

The impact of trade policies on income distribution in a planning model for Colombia

This paper develops a multisector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of trade on the distribution of income among socioeconomic groups defined both by the factors of production they own and the sector in which they work. The categorization of recipients includes landless rural labor, land owners, workers in the urban traditional sector, and workers in the organized sector and capitalists. Experiments are conducted with an application to Columbia, a primary-exporting economy. The results indicate that, for such an economy, outward-looking policies with increased primary exports are likely to be more detrimental for the distribution of income in the medium term than inward-looking ones.     

Killing the Golden Goose? Third Sector Organizations and Back‐to‐Work Programmes in Germany and the UK

Third sector, or not-for-profit, organizations have been viewed in many parts of Europe as agencies that can be harnessed by public policy programmes to support the socially excluded. Within the emerging mixed economy of welfare, third sector agencies offering training, support and employment for groups disadvantaged in the labour market provide an important example. This illustrates, from one specific field, the dynamics occurring at the interface between public and third sectors in the delivery of public policy goals. This article examines both the history of 'partnership regimes' in this field and the evolving local organizational arrangement. The developments in the contrasting welfare regimes of Britain and Germany, which exemplify different institutional traditions, are analysed. The potential impact of regulatory changes on the capacity of third sector work integration agencies to deliver policy goals is assessed in both countries using evidence from recent case study research. The analysis suggests that the emerging managerialist partnership structures are tending to convert third sector organizations into 'just in time' deliverers of poor programme outcomes in both welfare regimes while also eroding their distinctive potential to provide more than mere labour market integration.     

A family income distribution model for regional (Massachusetts) policy analysis

An earned family income distribution model for Massachussets is described. This model could be estimated and used for other national or subnational regions for which the micro data required to generate earned family income distribution at working period rates are available. The model is distinguished by its explicit inclusion of male- and female-headed families without earnings and by its attention to employment structure, labor market conditions, and wage acceleration. There is presented a policy simulation that shows the effects on earned family income distribution of cutting the Massachusetts corporate profits tax and offsetting the lost revenue with a luxury goods sales tax.     

The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing

The Irish economy has recently endured a period of turbulence as a result of the collapse of the domestic property market bubble and the onset of the global financial crisis. There are two critical vulnerabilities in the Irish economy at present. The first is the potential for sluggish economic growth due to a slowdown in external demand, which impacts on the government's ability to meet budgetary targets. The second concern relates to the financial stability of the banking system given the escalating mortgage crisis. Our results show that Irish economic growth is highly sensitive to the performance of its trading partners and any international slowdown will hinder Ireland's growth prospects. The model used suggests that the appropriate policy response is to pursue further gains in competitiveness. We estimate the impact of an external slowdown on mortgage delinquency using a new dataset on the loan books of the commercial banking sector. The results suggest that a negative one standard deviation shock to US GDP growth leads to an increase of 1600 in the number of mortgages in arrears for at least 90 days. Arrears are driven by unemployment and negative equity in the model. We discuss policies to contain the mortgage crisis by improving these intermediate target variables.     

Individual economic agents in a macroeconomic model: UK companies in Cambridge MDM

This paper makes a case for disaggregating the company sector in economic policy modeling and reports the first attempt to construct projections for the U.K. company sector using individual company models. It outlines the disaggregated model and explores for each endogenous variable the type of improvement in modeling that disaggregation can offer. The scale of aggregation biases is demonstrated by comparing illustrative projections for the disaggregated model and for an aggregate counterpart model. These projections also suggest the areas of policy making to which the model can contribute.     

Cultural policy and investment in China: Do they realize the government’s cultural objectives?

Cultural policy in China has both economic and cultural objectives. In this paper we consider how these two objectives are linked through increases in cultural output. We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy to analyse the impact of cultural investment on the output of cultural goods and services between 2009 and 2015, and we carry forward the simulations to 2030. Our results show that this cultural policy instrument has had a positive impact on the output of cultural goods and services in a manner that also underpins the purely cultural objectives of government.     

Exploring the implications of different loan-to-value macroprudential policy designs

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of changes in loan-to-value ratios in a multi-country model with financial frictions and a banking sector. Main findings suggest that a permanent LTV tightening in a small euro area economy leads to a long-run decline in lending to the private sector. The short-run impact depends crucially on the policy design, being less pronounced when the measure is phased-in. This is consistent with policy goals of curbing credit growth but avoiding an abrupt immediate contraction. A euro area wide measure implies larger long-run effects but the short-run recessionary impact is attenuated by the monetary policy response.     

Multiple objective policy analysis: A factor analysis and tradeoff approach applied to the agricultural sector of the Dominican Republic

The technique of factor analysis is applied to a situation in which result data from multiple objective policy analysis need to be reduced to a subset of information for policy makers. Use of factor analysis in this context is developed in some detail, and the process is applied to results of pricing policy simulations from a model of the agricultural sector of the Dominican Republic. It is concluded that factor analysis can be a useful first step for the analyst to determine the relationships among groups of variables. The technique also aids the process of data reduction to allow graphical presentation of tradeoffs.     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

Investment priorities and income distribution: The case of Brazil in 1970

In this paper, we study the conditions (ie., social disarticulation) by which choices in government policy priorities toward sectoral production may instigate increased income inequality. A dynamic multisectoral model is proposed in which the main link that is put forward is the necessary correspondence between rapid growth of production of certain types of goods and the expansion of demand for those same goods in the internal market. Application to Brazil illustrates the possibilities of such a tool for economic analysis and shows that the regressive wage policy implemented in Brazil was indeed consistent with that country's economic priorities and policy emphases.     

Free trade,food-processing,and migration: An analysis of Mexican immigration in the U.S. Great Plains Region

This paper empirically identifies the factors driving Mexican immigration into the U.S. Great Plains region, focusing especially on the role of work in the Mexican and U.S. food-processing sectors, which in the context of NAFTA-induced foreign direct investments, opens up paths for migration along occupational lines into the U.S. from Mexico. Using a unique dataset on Mexican migration, the study addresses three related questions in a series of multivariate logistic regression analyses. First, is employment in the U.S. food-processing sector associated with Mexican migration into the Great Plains region? Second, does employment in the Mexican food-processing sector predict employment in the Great Plains food-processing sector? Finally, is the political–economic context linking Mexico and the U.S. related to the formation of occupational channels linking the food-processing sectors in Mexico and the U.S.? The findings demonstrate that the U.S. food-processing sector is a strong predictor of Mexican migration to the Great Plains region; Mexican migration is strongly channeled along occupational lines from Mexico to the U.S.; and the implementation of NAFTA, a period of intensive political–economic integration, strengthens the occupational channel between the food-processing sectors.     

New Policy Spaces: The Impact of Devolution on Third Sector Policy in the UK

The development of third sector policy in the UK since 1997 has seen changes which have been of significance both for analysts and practitioners. This period has seen government engagement with and support for the sector extend far beyond the levels found throughout much of the last century. This has led to a growth in the size and scale of the sector and a closer involvement of sector representatives in political debate and policy planning. These changes have taken place at the same time as third sector policy has been devolved to the new administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This article explores the impact of devolution on these policy developments and assesses the extent to which political devolution has led to policy divergence across the four countries in the UK. The conclusion is reached that policy devolution has created important new space for policy development for the third sector across the UK, but that the direction of travel in all four regimes has remained remarkably similar.     

Policy modeling of foreign exchange rates

This paper is neither a complete survey of empirical work on exchange rate determination, nor a review of the ballooning volume of theoretical models. It is instead an attempt to classify the main alternative approaches to modeling exchange rates. I shall concentrate on approaches that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. There will be four further sections in the paper. The first three sections will each deal withthe structure, empirical support, and policy consequences of three main types of model: purchasing power parity models emphasizing the close and immediate relation of goods markets; interest rate parity models emphasizing the close and immediate international linkage of markets for financial assets; and structural balance-of-payments models that do not assume either of the above linkages to be so strong and immediate as to eliminate the other, and that hence require separate (but interdependent) modeling of trade and capital linkages in the determination of exchange rates. Each of these main categories has many rather distinct models within it, and some models are not easily classified into one of the three categories; I hope that the three-way split will nevertheless serve to make some distinctions that are important for policy modeling.In the final section I shall try to summarize the available model results that pertain to national and international policy choices under a system of more flexible exchange rates, and then to suggest where more or better model building might usefully increase the amount of information available to guide policy decisions.     

Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don’t work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of “New Structuralists”, exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries.