Estimation in the Cox cure model with covariates missing not at random,with application to disease screening/prediction

In an attempt to provide a statistical tool for disease screening and prediction, we propose a semiparametric approach to analysis of the Cox proportional hazards cure model in situations where the observations on the event time are subject to right censoring and some covariates are missing not at random. To facilitate the methodological development, we begin with semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation (SPMLE) assuming that the (conditional) distribution of the missing covariates is known. A variant of the EM algorithm is used to compute the estimator. We then adapt the SPMLE to a more practical situation where the distribution is unknown and there is a consistent estimator based on available information. We establish the consistency and weak convergence of the resulting pseudo-SPMLE, and identify a suitable variance estimator. The application of our inference procedure to disease screening and prediction is illustrated via empirical studies. The proposed approach is used to analyze the tuberculosis screening study data that motivated this research. Its finite-sample performance is examined by simulation.     

Automated selection of post‐strata using a model‐assisted regression tree estimator

Despite having desirable properties, model‐assisted estimators are rarely used in anything but their simplest form to produce official statistics. This is due to the fact that the more complicated models are often ill suited to the available auxiliary data. Under a model‐assisted framework, we propose a regression tree estimator for a finite‐population total. Regression tree models are adept at handling the type of auxiliary data usually available in the sampling frame and provide a model that is easy to explain and justify. The estimator can be viewed as a post‐stratification estimator where the post‐strata are automatically selected by the recursive partitioning algorithm of the regression tree. We establish consistency of the regression tree estimator and a variance estimator, along with asymptotic normality of the regression tree estimator. We compare the performance of our estimator to other survey estimators using the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Survey data.     

Generalised Rank Regression Estimator with Standard Error Adjusted Lasso

One of the standard variable selection procedures in multiple linear regression is to use a penalisation technique in least‐squares (LS) analysis. In this setting, many different types of penalties have been introduced to achieve variable selection. It is well known that LS analysis is sensitive to outliers, and consequently outliers can present serious problems for the classical variable selection procedures. Since rank‐based procedures have desirable robustness properties compared to LS procedures, we propose a rank‐based adaptive lasso‐type penalised regression estimator and a corresponding variable selection procedure for linear regression models. The proposed estimator and variable selection procedure are robust against outliers in both response and predictor space. Furthermore, since rank regression can yield unstable estimators in the presence of multicollinearity, in order to provide inference that is robust against multicollinearity, we adjust the penalty term in the adaptive lasso function by incorporating the standard errors of the rank estimator. The theoretical properties of the proposed procedures are established and their performances are investigated by means of simulations. Finally, the estimator and variable selection procedure are applied to the Plasma Beta‐Carotene Level data set.     

Optimal model averaging estimation for correlation structure in generalized estimating equations

Longitudinal data analysis requires a proper estimation of the within-cluster correlation structure in order to achieve efficient estimates of the regression parameters. When applying likelihood-based methods one may select an optimal correlation structure by the AIC or BIC. However, such information criteria are not applicable for estimating equation based approaches. In this paper we develop a model averaging approach to estimate the correlation matrix by a weighted sum of a group of patterned correlation matrices under the GEE framework. The optimal weight is determined by minimizing the difference between the weighted sum and a consistent yet inefficient estimator of the correlation structure. The computation of our proposed approach only involves a standard quadratic programming on top of the standard GEE procedure and can be easily implemented in practice. We provide theoretical justifications and extensive numerical simulations to support the application of the proposed estimator. A couple of well-known longitudinal data sets are revisited where we implement and illustrate our methodology.     

Component selection in additive quantile regression models

Nonparametric additive models are powerful techniques for multivariate data analysis. Although many procedures have been developed for estimating additive components both in mean regression and quantile regression, the problem of selecting relevant components has not been addressed much especially in quantile regression. We present a doubly-penalized estimation procedure for component selection in additive quantile regression models that combines basis function approximation with a ridge-type penalty and a variant of the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty. We show that the proposed estimator identifies relevant and irrelevant components consistently and achieves the nonparametric optimal rate of convergence for the relevant components. We also provide an accurate and efficient computation algorithm to implement the estimator and demonstrate its performance through simulation studies. Finally, we illustrate our method via a real data example to identify important body measurements to predict percentage of body fat of an individual.     

Quantile Regression Estimator for GARCH Models

Abstract. In this article, we study the quantile regression estimator for GARCH models. We formulate the quantile regression problem by a reparametrization method and verify that the obtained quantile regression estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal under certain regularity conditions. We also present our simulation results and a real data analysis for illustration.     

Simple non-parametric estimators for unemployment duration analysis

Summary.  We consider an extension of conventional univariate Kaplan–Meier-type estimators for the hazard rate and the survivor function to multivariate censored data with a censored random regressor. It is an Akritas-type estimator which adapts the non-parametric conditional hazard rate estimator of Beran to more typical data situations in applied analysis. We show with simulations that the estimator has nice finite sample properties and our implementation appears to be fast. As an application we estimate non-parametric conditional quantile functions with German administrative unemployment duration data.     

Estimation of the integrated volatility using noisy high-frequency data with jumps and endogeneity

In this paper, we investigate a new estimator of the integrated volatility of Itô semimartingales in the presence of both market microstructure noise and jumps when sampling times are endogenous. In the first step, our estimation wipes off the effects of the microstructure noise, and in the second step our estimator shrinks the effects of jumps. We provide consistency of the estimator when the jumps have finite variation and infinite variation and establish a central limit theorem for the estimator in a general endogenous time setting when the jumps only have finite variation. Simulation illustrates the performance of the proposed estimator.     

A bias-reduced estimator for the mean of a heavy-tailed distribution with an infinite second moment

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator for the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked in a simulation study, by four of the most popular goodness-of-fit tests. The accuracy of the resulting confidence intervals is evaluated as well. We also investigate the finite sample behavior and compare our estimator with some versions of Peng's estimator of the mean (namely those based on Hill, t-Hill and Huisman et al. extreme value index estimators). Moreover, we discuss the robustness of the tail index estimators used in this paper. Finally, our estimation procedure is applied to the well-known Danish fire insurance claims data set, to provide confidence bounds for the means of weekly and monthly maximum losses over a period of 10 years.     

On the relative efficiency of a monotone parameter curve estimator in a functional nonlinear model

Functional regression models that relate functional covariates to a scalar response are becoming more common due to the availability of functional data and computational advances. We introduce a functional nonlinear model with a scalar response where the true parameter curve is monotone. Using the Newton-Raphson method within a backfitting procedure, we discuss a penalized least squares criterion for fitting the functional nonlinear model with the smoothing parameter selected using generalized cross validation. Connections between a nonlinear mixed effects model and our functional nonlinear model are discussed, thereby providing an additional model fitting procedure using restricted maximum likelihood for smoothing parameter selection. Simulated relative efficiency gains provided by a monotone parameter curve estimator relative to an unconstrained parameter curve estimator are presented. In addition, we provide an application of our model with data from ozonesonde measurements of stratospheric ozone in which the measurements are biased as a function of altitude.     

S-estimator in partially linear regression models

In this paper, a robust estimator is proposed for partially linear regression models. We first estimate the nonparametric component using the penalized regression spline, then we construct an estimator of parametric component by using robust S-estimator. We propose an iterative algorithm to solve the proposed optimization problem, and introduce a robust generalized cross-validation to select the penalized parameter. Simulation studies and a real data analysis illustrate that the our proposed method is robust against outliers in the dataset or errors with heavy tails.     

Parameter estimation and inference with spatial lags and cointegration

This article studies dynamic panel data models in which the long run outcome for a particular cross-section is affected by a weighted average of the outcomes in the other cross-sections. We show that imposing such a structure implies a model with several cointegrating relationships that, unlike in the standard case, are nonlinear in the coe?cients to be estimated. Assuming that the weights are exogenously given, we extend the dynamic ordinary least squares methodology and provide a dynamic two-stage least squares estimator. We derive the large sample properties of our proposed estimator under a set of low-level assumptions. Then our methodology is applied to US financial market data, which consist of credit default swap spreads, as well as firm-specific and industry data. We construct the economic space using a “closeness” measure for firms based on input–output matrices. Our estimates show that this particular form of spatial correlation of credit default swap spreads is substantial and highly significant.     

Regression model for surrogate data in high dimensional statistics

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the regression of a surrogated scalar response variable given a functional random one. We construct an estimator of the regression operator by using, in addition to the available (true) response data, a surrogate data. We then establish some asymptotic properties of the constructed estimator in terms of the almost-complete and the quadratic mean convergences. Notice that the obtained results generalize a part of the results obtained in the finite dimensional framework. Finally, an illustration on the applicability of our results on both simulated data and a real dataset was realized. We have thus shown the superiority of our estimator on classical estimators when we are lacking complete data.     

Estimation of the angular density in bivariate generalized Pareto models

We investigate a method to estimate the angular density non-parametrically in bivariate generalized Pareto models. The angular density can be used as a visual tool to gain a first insight into the tail-dependence structure of given data. We derive a representation of the angular density by means of the Pickands density and use it to construct our estimator. The estimator is asymptotically normal under certain regularity conditions. We also test it with simulated data and give an application to a real hydrological data set. Finally, we show that our estimator cannot be transferred directly to higher dimensions.     

Nonparametric estimation of time-to-event distribution based on recall data in observational studies

In a cross-sectional observational study, time-to-event distribution can be estimated from data on current status or from recalled data on the time of occurrence. In either case, one can treat the data as having been interval censored, and use the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator proposed by Turnbull (J R Stat Soc Ser B 38:290–295, 1976). However, the chance of recall may depend on the time span between the occurrence of the event and the time of interview. In such a case, the underlying censoring would be informative, rendering the Turnbull estimator inappropriate. In this article, we provide a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the distribution of interest, by using a model adapted to the special nature of the data at hand. We also provide a computationally simple approximation of this estimator, and establish the consistency of both the original and the approximate versions, under mild conditions. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the proposed estimators have smaller bias than the Turnbull estimator based on incomplete recall data, smaller variance than the Turnbull estimator based on current status data, and smaller mean squared error than both of them. The method is applied to menarcheal data from a recent Anthropometric study of adolescent and young adult females in Kolkata, India.     

Functional data analysis: estimation of the relative error in functional regression under random left-truncation model

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between a functional random covariable and a scalar response which is subject to left-truncation by another random variable. Precisely, we use the mean squared relative error as a loss function to construct a nonparametric estimator of the regression operator of these functional truncated data. Under some standard assumptions in functional data analysis, we establish the almost sure consistency, with rates, of the constructed estimator as well as its asymptotic normality. Then, a simulation study, on finite-sized samples, was carried out in order to show the efficiency of our estimation procedure and to highlight its superiority over the classical kernel estimation, for different levels of simulated truncated data.     

Non-parametric estimation of data dimensionality prior to data compression: the case of the human development index

In many applications in applied statistics, researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using a factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually have high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data do not have to be linearised. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index, we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension 3 and the index loses information.     

GEE estimation of the covariance structure of a bivariate panel data model with an application to wage dynamics and the incidence of profit-sharing in West Germany

We propose a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach to the estimation of the mean and covariance structure of bivariate time series processes of panel data. The one-step approach allows for mixed continuous and discrete dependent variables. A Monte Carlo Study is presented to compare our particular GEE estimator with more standard GEE-estimators. In the empirical illustration, we apply our estimator to the analysis of individual wage dynamics and the incidence of profit-sharing in West Germany. Our findings show that time-invariant unobserved individual ability jointly influences individual wages and participation in profit sharing schemes.     

Recurrent events analysis in the presence of time-dependent covariates and dependent censoring

Summary.  Recurrent events models have had considerable attention recently. The majority of approaches show the consistency of parameter estimates under the assumption that censoring is independent of the recurrent events process of interest conditional on the covariates that are included in the model. We provide an overview of available recurrent events analysis methods and present an inverse probability of censoring weighted estimator for the regression parameters in the Andersen–Gill model that is commonly used for recurrent event analysis. This estimator remains consistent under informative censoring if the censoring mechanism is estimated consistently, and it generally improves on the naïve estimator for the Andersen–Gill model in the case of independent censoring. We illustrate the bias of ad hoc estimators in the presence of informative censoring with a simulation study and provide a data analysis of recurrent lung exacerbations in cystic fibrosis patients when some patients are lost to follow-up.