Testing overdispersion in the zero-inflated Poisson model

The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model is used to account for commonly occurring overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model. Tests for overdispersion (Wald test, likelihood ratio test [LRT], and score test) based on ZINB model for use in ZIP regression models have been developed. Due to similarity to the ZINB model, we consider the zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) model as an alternate model for overdispersed zero-inflated count data. The score test has an advantage over the LRT and the Wald test in that the score test only requires that the parameter of interest be estimated under the null hypothesis. This paper proposes score tests for overdispersion based on the ZIGP model and illustrates that the derived score statistics are exactly the same as the score statistics under the ZINB model. A simulation study indicates the proposed score statistics are preferred to other tests for higher empirical power. In practice, based on the approximate mean–variance relationship in the data, the ZINB or ZIGP model can be considered, and a formal score test based on asymptotic standard normal distribution can be employed for assessing overdispersion in the ZIP model. We provide an example to illustrate the procedures for data analysis.     

Score test for testing zero-inflated Poisson regression against zero-inflated generalized Poisson alternatives

In several cases, count data often have excessive number of zero outcomes. This zero-inflated phenomenon is a specific cause of overdispersion, and zero-inflated Poisson regression model (ZIP) has been proposed for accommodating zero-inflated data. However, if the data continue to suggest additional overdispersion, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) regression models have been considered as alternatives. This study proposes the score test for testing ZIP regression model against ZIGP alternatives and proves that it is equal to the score test for testing ZIP regression model against ZINB alternatives. The advantage of using the score test over other alternative tests such as likelihood ratio and Wald is that the score test can be used to determine whether a more complex model is appropriate without fitting the more complex model. Applications of the proposed score test on several datasets are also illustrated.     

Marginalized zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression

The generalized Poisson (GP) regression model has been used to model count data that exhibit over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The zero-inflated GP (ZIGP) regression model can additionally handle count data characterized by many zeros. However, the parameters of ZIGP model cannot easily be used for inference on overall exposure effects. In order to address this problem, a marginalized ZIGP is proposed to directly model the population marginal mean count. The parameters of the marginalized zero-inflated GP model are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. The regression model is illustrated by three real-life data sets.     

Functional Form for the Zero-Inflated Generalized Poisson Regression Model

The generalized Poisson (GP) regression is an increasingly popular approach for modeling overdispersed as well as underdispersed count data. Several parameterizations have been performed for the GP regression, and the two well known models, the GP-1 and the GP-2, have been applied. The GP-P regression, which has been recently proposed, has the advantage of nesting the GP-1 and the GP-2 parametrically, besides allowing the statistical tests of the GP-1 and the GP-2 against a more general alternative. In several cases, count data often have excessive number of zero outcomes than are expected in the Poisson. This zero-inflation phenomenon is a specific cause of overdispersion, and the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model has been proposed. However, if the data continue to suggest additional overdispersion, the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB-1 and ZINB-2) and the zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP-1 and ZIGP-2) regression models have been considered as alternatives. This article proposes a functional form of the ZIGP which mixes a distribution degenerate at zero with a GP-P distribution. The suggested model has the advantage of nesting the ZIP and the two well known ZIGP (ZIGP-1 and ZIGP-2) regression models, besides allowing the statistical tests of the ZIGP-1 and the ZIGP-2 against a more general alternative. The ZIP and the functional form of the ZIGP regression models are fitted, compared and tested on two sets of count data; the Malaysian insurance claim data and the German healthcare data.     

Bayesian zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression model: estimation and case influence diagnostics

Count data with excess zeros arises in many contexts. Here our concern is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) regression model to address this problem. This model provides a useful generalization of zero-inflated Poisson model since the generalized Poisson distribution is overdispersed/underdispersed relative to Poisson. Due to the complexity of the ZIGP model, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the considered model. Additionally, some discussions on the model selection criteria are presented and a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics is investigated for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Finally, a simulation study and a psychological example are given to illustrate our methodology.     

Zero-inflated models and estimation in zero-inflated Poisson distribution

In this paper, we briefly overview different zero-inflated probability distributions. We compare the performance of the estimates of Poisson, Generalized Poisson, ZIP, ZIGP and ZINB models through Mean square error (MSE), bias and Standard error (SE) when the samples are generated from ZIP distribution. We propose a new estimator referred to as probability estimator (PE) of inflation parameter of ZIP distribution based on moment estimator (ME) of the mean parameter and compare its performance with ME and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) through a simulation study. We use the PE along with ME and MLE to fit ZIP distribution to various zero-inflated datasets and observe that the results do not differ significantly. We recommend using PE in place of MLE since it is easy to calculate and the simulation study in this paper demonstrates that the PE performs as good as MLE irrespective of the sample size.     

GEE-based zero-inflated generalized Poisson model for clustered over or under-dispersed count data

The zero-inflated regression models such as zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) or zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) regression models can model the count data with excess zeros. The ZINB model can handle over-dispersed and the ZIGP model can handle the over or under-dispersed count data with excess zeros as well. Moreover, the count data may be correlated because of data collection procedure or special study design. The clustered sampling approach is one of the examples in which the correlation among subjects could be defined. In such situations, a marginal model using generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach can incorporate these correlations and lead up to the relationships at the population level. In this study, the GEE-based zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression model was proposed to fit over and under-dispersed clustered count data with excess zeros.     

Parameter Change Test for Poisson Autoregressive Models

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in Poisson autoregressive models. We suggest two types of cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests, namely, those based on estimates and residuals. We first demonstrate that the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal and then construct the CMLE‐based CUSUM test. It is shown that under regularity conditions, its limiting null distribution is a function of independent Brownian bridges. Next, we construct the residual‐based CUSUM test and derive its limiting null distribution. Simulation results are provided for illustration. A real‐data analysis is performed on data for polio incidence and campylobacteriosis infections.     

Score Tests for Zero-Inflation in Overdispersed Count Data

The negative binomial (NB) model and the generalized Poisson (GP) model are common alternatives to Poisson models when overdispersion is present in the data. Having accounted for initial overdispersion, we may require further investigation as to whether there is evidence for zero-inflation in the data. Two score statistics are derived from the GP model for testing zero-inflation. These statistics, unlike Wald-type test statistics, do not require that we fit the more complex zero-inflated overdispersed models to evaluate zero-inflation. A simulation study illustrates that the developed score statistics reasonably follow a χ² distribution and maintain the nominal level. Extensive simulation results also indicate the power behavior is different for including a continuous variable than a binary variable in the zero-inflation (ZI) part of the model. These differences are the basis from which suggestions are provided for real data analysis. Two practical examples are presented in this article. Results from these examples along with practical experience lead us to suggest performing the developed score test before fitting a zero-inflated NB model to the data.     

Small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test in the random effects model

In this paper we examine the small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test in the random effects model which is often recommended for meta-analyses. We find that this distribution depends strongly on the true value of the heterogeneity parameter (between-study variance) of the model, and that the correct p-value may be quite different from its large sample approximation. We recommend that the dependence of the heterogeneity parameter be examined for the data at hand and suggest a (simulation) method for this. Our setup allows for explanatory variables on the study level (meta-regression) and we discuss other possible applications, too. Two data sets are analyzed and two simulation studies are performed for illustration.     

PERMUTATION TESTS AND OTHER TEST STATISTICS FOR ILL-BEHAVED DATA: EXPERIENCE OF THE NINDS t-PA STROKE TRIAL

Permutation tests are often used to analyze data since they may not require one to make assumptions regarding the form of the distribution to have a random and independent sample selection. We initially considered a permutation test to assess the treatment effect on computed tomography lesion volume in the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) t-PA Stroke Trial, which has highly skewed data. However, we encountered difficulties in summarizing the permutation test results on the lesion volume. In this paper, we discuss some aspects of permutation tests and illustrate our findings. This experience with the NINDS t-PA Stroke Trial data emphasizes that permutation tests are useful for clinical trials and can be used to validate assumptions of an observed test statistic. The permutation test places fewer restrictions on the underlying distribution but is not always distribution-free or an exact test, especially for ill-behaved data. Quasi-likelihood estimation using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach on transformed data seems to be a good choice for analyzing CT lesion data, based on both its corresponding permutation test and its clinical interpretation.     

Statistical analysis of right-censored failure-time data with partially specified hazard rates

This paper discusses the analysis of right-censored failure-time data in which the failure rate may have different forms in different time intervals. Such data occur naturally, for example, in demography studies and leukemia research, and a number of methods for the analysis have been proposed in the literature. However, most methods are purely parametric or nonparametric. Matthews and Farewell (1982), for example, discussed this problem and proposed a method for testing a constant failure rate against a failure rate involving a change point. To estimate an absolute limit on the attainable human life span, Zelterman (1992) discussed a hazard function that has different parametric forms over different time intervals. We consider a different situation in which the hazard function may follow a parametric form before a change point and is completely unknown after the change point. To test the existence of the change point, a modified maximal-censored-likelihood-ratio test is proposed and its asymptotic properties are studied. A bootstrap method is described for finding critical values of the proposed test. Simulation results indicate that the test performs well.     

The new robust two-sample test for randomly right-censored data

Using a minimum p-value principle, a new two-sample test MIN3 is proposed in the paper. The cumulative distribution function of the MIN3 test statistic is studied and approximated by the Beta distribution of the third kind. Lower percentage points of the distribution of the new test statistic under the null hypothesis are computed. Also the test power for a lot of types of alternative hypotheses (with 0, 1 and 2 point(-s) of the intersection(-s) of survival functions) is studied and we found that the usage of the MIN3 test is a preferred strategy by the Wald and Savage decision-making criteria under risk and uncertainty. The results of application of the MIN3 test are shown for two examples from lifetime data analysis.     

On causality test for time series of counts based on poisson ingarch models with application to crime and temperature data

In this study, we consider the causality test for the integer-valued time series. Using the mean equation of Poisson INGARCH models, we construct a regression that includes exogenous variables. The test is then constructed based on the least squares estimator and is shown to follow a chi-square distribution under the null of no causal relationships. A simulation study and real data analysis using the crime and temperature data in Chicago are provided for illustration.     

Testing the Existence of Change-Point in NHPP Software Reliability Models

In the software testing process, the nature of the failure data is affected by many factors, such as the testing environment, testing strategy, and resource allocation. These factors are unlikely to all be kept stable during the entire process of software testing. As a result, the statistical structure of the failure data is likely to experience major changes. Recently, some useful non homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models with change-point are proposed. However, in many realistic situations, whether a change-point exists is unknown. Furthermore, some real data seem to have two or more change-points. In this article we propose test statistics to test the existence of change-point(s). The experimental results of real data show that our tests perform well.     

Testing equality of correlation coefficients for paired binary data from multiple groups

Paired binary data arise naturally when paired body parts are investigated in clinical trials. One of the widely used models for dealing with this kind of data is the equal correlation coefficients model. Before using this model, it is necessary to test whether the correlation coefficients in each group are actually equal. In this paper, three test statistics (likelihood ratio test, Wald-type test, and Score test) are derived for this purpose. The simulation results show that the Score test statistic maintains type I error rate and has satisfactory power, and therefore is recommended among the three methods. The likelihood ratio test is over conservative in most cases, and the Wald-type statistic is not robust with respect to empirical type I error. Three real examples, including a multi-centre Phase II double-blind placebo randomized controlled trial, are given to illustrate the three proposed test statistics.     

Interval-valued data regression using partial linear model

Semi-parametric modelling of interval-valued data is of great practical importance, as exampled by applications in economic and financial data analysis. We propose a flexible semi-parametric modelling of interval-valued data by integrating the partial linear regression model based on the Center & Range method, and investigate its estimation procedure. Furthermore, we introduce a test statistic that allows one to decide between a parametric linear model and a semi-parametric model, and approximate its null asymptotic distribution based on wild Bootstrap method to obtain the critical values. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology and the new test. Moreover, several empirical data sets are analysed to document its practical applications.     

Testing Heterogeneity for Frailty Distribution in Shared Frailty Model

Abstract

The frailties, representing extra variations due to unobserved measurements, are often assumed to be iid in shared frailty models. In medical applications, however, a speculation can arise that a data set might violate the iid assumption. In this paper we investigate this conjecture through an analysis of the kidney infection data in McGilchrist and Aisbett (McGilchrist, C. A., Aisbett, C. W. (1991). Regression with frailty in survival analysis. Biometrics 47:461–466). As a test procedure, we consider the cusum of squares test which is frequently used for monitoring a variance change in statistical models. Our result strongly sustains the heterogeneity of the frailty distribution.     

A score test for overdispersion in Poisson regression based on the generalized Poisson-2 model

Overdispersion is a common phenomenon in Poisson modeling. The generalized Poisson (GP) regression model accommodates both overdispersion and underdispersion in count data modeling, and is an increasingly popular platform for modeling overdispersed count data. The Poisson model is one of the special cases in the collection of models which may be specified by GP regression. Thus, we may derive a test of overdispersion which compares the equi-dispersion Poisson model within the context of the more general GP regression model. The score test has an advantage over the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and over the Wald test in that the score test only requires that the parameter of interest be estimated under the null hypothesis (the Poisson model). Herein, we propose a score test for overdispersion based on the GP model (specifically the GP-2 model) and compare the power of the test with the LRT and Wald tests. A simulation study indicates the proposed score test based on asymptotic standard normal distribution is more appropriate in practical applications.