Hazard Experience,Geophysical Vulnerability,and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City,the Case of New Orleans

This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane‐induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods. We find that residents living in neighborhoods that flooded during Hurricane Katrina exhibit higher levels of perceived risk than those residents living in neighborhoods that did not flood. In addition, findings suggest that flood risk perception is positively associated with female gender, lower income, and direct flood experiences. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning.     

Hazard Perception, Risk Perception, and the Need for Decontamination by Residents Exposed to Soil Pollution: The Role of Sustainability and the Limits of Expert Knowledge

This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological-symbolic approach (ESA), a multidisciplinary model is developed that draws upon psychological and sociological perspectives on risk perception and includes ecological variables by using data from experts' risk assessments. The results show that hazard perception is best predicted by objective knowledge, subjective knowledge, estimated knowledge of experts, and the assessed risks. However, experts' risk assessments induce an increase in hazard perception only when residents know the urgency of decontamination. Risk perception is best predicted by trust in the risk management. Additionally, need for decontamination relates to hazard perception, risk perception, estimated knowledge of experts, and thoughts about sustainability. In contrast to the knowledge deficit model, objective and subjective knowledge did not significantly relate to risk perception and need for decontamination. The results suggest that residents can make a distinction between hazards in terms of the seriousness of contamination on the one hand, and human health risks on the other hand. Moreover, next to the importance of social determinants of environmental risk perception, this study shows that the output of experts' risk assessments—or the objective risks—can create a hazard awareness rather than an alarming risk consciousness, despite residents' distrust of scientific knowledge.     

Do actions reduce perceived risk? A longitudinal analysis of the relationship between risk perception and actions in response to forest disturbance in Colorado

As residents living in hazard-prone areas face on-going environmental threats, the actions they take to mitigate such risks are likely motivated by various factors. Whereas risk perception has been considered a key determinant of related behavioral responses, little is known about how risk mitigation actions influence subsequent perceived risk. In other words, do actions to prevent or mitigate risk reduce risk perception? This longitudinal study considers the dynamic relationships between risk perception and risk-mitigating behavior in the context of forest disturbance in north-central Colorado. Based on panel survey data collected in 2007 and 2018, the results provide a first look at changes in perceived forest risks as they relate to individual and community actions in response to an extensive mountain pine beetle outbreak. Analysis revealed that the perception of direct forest risks (forest fire and falling trees) increased, whereas indirect forest risk perception (concern on broader threats to local community) decreased across the two study phases. Higher individual or community activeness (level of actions) was associated with subsequent reductions in perceived forest fire risk, smaller increases in direct risk perception, and larger decreases in indirect risk perception. These findings contribute insights into the complex risk reappraisal process in forest hazard contexts, with direct implications for risk communication and management strategies.     

Geographic location or experience: Using PRISM to understand how people seek flood risk information

Flooding is increasing worldwide, and with climate change, people need help understanding these changing conditions and that their flood risk may also change. This study extends the planned risk information seeking model (PRISM) into the flood risk domain and examines the antecedents that explain flood risk information seeking behavior. Using a survey reflective of the population in the state of Texas (N = 1079), this study includes an operationalization of risk perception specific to the complexity of floods and explores two key moderators in the PRISM model. Findings suggest that using PRISM to elaborate flood risk information seeking behaviors explains 48% of the variance in information seeking intent and 37% of the variance in affective risk perception. Using multigroup modeling, the findings also reveal that simply living in an area at high risk for floods does not significantly impact any relationships in the model. However, having experience with flooding increases the strength of risk perception paths—in particular, perceived probability of flood risk—and better explains flood risk information seeking. Suggestions for how to use communication to influence risk perceptions and information seeking, as well as future directions for research, are also discussed.     

Individual Actual or Perceived Property Flood Risk: Did it Predict Evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, 2003?

Individual perception of risk has consistently been considered an important determinant of hurricane evacuation in published studies and reviews. Adequate risk assessment is informed by environmental and social cues, as well as evacuation intentions and past disaster experience. This cross‐sectional study measured perceived flood risk of 570 residents of three coastal North Carolina counties, compared their perception with actual risk determined by updated flood plain maps, and determined if either was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Census blocks were stratified by flood zone and 30 census blocks were randomly selected from each flood zone. Seven interviews were conducted at random locations within selected blocks. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to produce crude and adjusted risk differences. Neither the designated flood zone of the parcel where the home was located nor the residents' perceived flood risk was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariable analysis, intention to evacuate and home type were important confounders of the association between actual risk and evacuation. The belief that one is at high risk of property damage or injury is important in evacuation decision making. However, in this study, while coastal residents' perceived risk of flooding was correlated with their actual flood risk, neither was associated with evacuation. These findings provide important opportunities for education and intervention by policymakers and authorities to improve hurricane evacuation rates and raise flood risk awareness.     

An Analysis of the Public Perception of Flood Risk on the Belgian Coast

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards.     

Understanding Risk Information Seeking and Processing during an Infectious Disease Outbreak: The Case of Zika Virus

This study draws on the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM) to assess Zika virus information seeking and systematic processing, paying particular attention to the relationship between perceived knowledge and knowledge insufficiency. Novel risks, such as Zika, provide an interesting context for examining whether information-seeking models, such as PRISM, are able to predict information seeking when available information is limited or scarce. A cross-sectional, online study of men and women of childbearing age (N = 494) residing in the state of Florida was conducted. Our results provide some support for the PRISM for predicting Zika information seeking intention, as well as systematic processing of information. We also found that individuals with high levels of perceived knowledge were more likely to report high level of knowledge insufficiency, illustrating that contextual factors may impact the fit of risk information seeking models.     

Flood Risk Perceptions and Insurance Choice: Do Decisions in the Floodplain Reflect Overoptimism?

In the presence of rare disasters, risk perceptions may not always align with actual risks. These perceptions can nevertheless influence an individual's willingness to mitigate risks through activities such as purchasing flood insurance. In a survey of Maryland floodplain residents, we find that stated risk perceptions predict voluntary flood insurance take‐up, while perceptions themselves varied widely among surveyed residents, owing in large part to differences in past flood experience. We use a formal test for overoptimism in risk perceptions and find that, on aggregate, floodplain residents are overly optimistic about flood risks.     

You Have Been Framed! How Antecedents of Information Need Mediate the Effects of Risk Communication Messages

This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web‐based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a “negativity bias.” Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens’ attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism.     

Information Needs Concerning a Planned Waste Incineration Facility

Waste management has become a major environmental issue in Germany. The siting of waste incineration especially arouses strong local opposition. The study presented here is related to such a case (i.e., a planned waste incineration facility in a small West German village). The study is based on a telephone survey aimed at the information needs of the residents. Two topics are stressed: (1) the thematic relevance of the siting project as seen by the public; and (2) the residents'information needs. The results show that a majority of residents are concerned about the planned facility, and the most important topics of their information needs refer to the risks and the safety systems of the planned facility, as well as information about waste management alternatives. Furthermore, the information needs depend on the personal relevance of the issue and the perceived knowledge deficit about it. Conclusions are drawn with regard to the design of a risk communication program. Here, four groups of residents are distinguished in terms of knowledge and motivation and, thus, need to be approached in different ways.     

Analysis of Local Acceptance of a Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility

Like many other countries in the world, Korea has struggled to site a facility for radioactive waste for almost 30 years because of the strong opposition from local residents. Finally, in 2005, Gyeongju was established as the first Korean site for a radioactive waste facility. The objectives of this research are to verify Gyeongju citizens' average level of risk perception of a radioactive waste disposal facility as compared to other risks, and to explore the best model for predicting respondents' acceptance level using variables related to cost-benefit, risk perception, and political process. For this purpose, a survey is conducted among Gyeongju residents, the results of which are as follows. First, the local residents' risk perception of an accident in a radioactive waste disposal facility is ranked seventh among a total of 13 risks, which implies that nuclear-related risk is not perceived very highly by Gyeongju residents; however, its characteristics are still somewhat negative. Second, the comparative regression analyses show that the cost-benefit and political process models are more suitable for explaining the respondents' level of acceptance than the risk perception model. This may be the result of the current economic depression in Gyeongju, residents' familiarity with the nuclear industry, or cultural characteristics of risk tolerance.     

How Does the General Public Evaluate Risk Information? The Impact of Associations with Other Risks

There is a considerable body of knowledge about the way people perceive risks using heuristics and qualitative characteristics, and about how risk information should be communicated to the public. However, little is known about the way people use the perception of known risks (associated risks) to judge an unknown risk. In a first, qualitative study, six different risks were discussed in in-depth interviews and focus group interviews. The interviews showed that risk associations played a prominent role in forming risk perceptions. Associated risks were often mentioned spontaneously. Second, a survey study was conducted to confirm the importance of risk associations quantitatively. This study investigated whether people related unknown risks to known risks. This was indeed confirmed. Furthermore, some insight was gained into how and why people form risk associations. Results showed that the semantic category of the unknown risks was more important in forming associations than the perceived level of risk or specific risk characteristics. These findings were in line with the semantic network theory. Based on these two studies, we recommend using the mental models approach in developing new risk communications.     

Flood Risk Assessment in the Netherlands: A Case Study for Dike Ring South Holland

Large parts of the Netherlands are below sea level. Therefore, it is important to have insight into the possible consequences and risks of flooding. In this article, an analysis of the risks due to flooding of the dike ring area South Holland in the Netherlands is presented. For different flood scenarios the potential number of fatalities is estimated. Results indicate that a flood event in this area can expose large and densely populated areas and result in hundreds to thousands of fatalities. Evacuation of South Holland before a coastal flood will be difficult due to the large amount of time required for evacuation and the limited time available. By combination with available information regarding the probability of occurrence of different flood scenarios, the flood risks have been quantified. The probability of death for a person in South Holland due to flooding, the so‐called individual risk, is small. The probability of a flood disaster with many fatalities, the so‐called societal risk, is relatively large in comparison with the societal risks in other sectors in the Netherlands, such as the chemical sector and aviation. The societal risk of flooding appears to be unacceptable according to some of the existing risk limits that have been proposed in literature. These results indicate the necessity of a further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk in the Netherlands and the need for additional risk reducing measures.     

The Impact of Perceived Flood Exposure on Flood‐Risk Perception: The Role of Distance

Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicting increasing levels of financial damages upon affected communities. The experience of such major flood events has brought about a significant change in attitudes to flood‐risk management, with a shift away from built engineering solutions alone towards a more multifaceted approach. Europe's experience with damaging flood episodes provided the impetus for the introduction of the European Floods Directive, requiring the establishment of flood‐risk management plans at the river‐basin scale. The effectiveness of such plans, focusing on prevention, protection, and preparedness, is dependent on adequate flood awareness and preparedness, and this is related to perception of flood risk. This is an important factor in the design and assessment of flood‐risk management. Whilst there is a modern body of literature exploring flood perception issues, there have been few examples that explore its spatial manifestations. Previous literature has examined perceived and real distance to a hazard source (such as a river, nuclear facility, landfill, or incinerator, etc.), whereas this article advances the literature by including an objectively assessed measure of distance to a perceived flood zone, using a cognitive mapping methodology. The article finds that distance to the perceived flood zone (perceived flood exposure) is a crucial factor in determining flood‐risk perception, both the cognitive and affective components. Furthermore, we find an interesting phenomenon of misperception among respondents. The article concludes by discussing the implications for flood‐risk management.     

Environmental Hazards in the Chinese Public's Eyes

The People's Republic of China suffers each year from various environmental hazards. Although risk perception study has a 40-year history in Europe and North America, little is known about risk perception in China. Previous studies of risk perception have primarily focused on unnatural hazards, but China has experinced many natural environmental hazards. Therefore, the Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazard risks must be considered in order to support the IDNDR program. The Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazards are similar to those of Europeans and North Americans, but different characteristics are observed.     

Environmental Hazards in the Chinese Public's Eyes

The People's Republic of China suffers each year from various environmental hazards. Although risk perception study has a 40-year history in Europe and North America, little is known about risk perception in China. Previous studies of risk perception have primarily focused on unnatural hazards, but China has experinced many natural environmental hazards. Therefore, the Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazard risks must be considered in order to support the IDNDR program. The Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazards are similar to those of Europeans and North Americans, but different characteristics are observed.     

Children's disaster knowledge,risk perceptions,and preparedness: A cross-country comparison in Nepal and Turkey

While children are one of the groups at risk in disasters, they can also take an active part in disaster management, provided that the opportunity is given. This research examined the effect of disaster experience, disaster education, country, and city socioeconomic status on children's perceived risk and preparedness with a survey of 1335 children between 11 and 14 years old, in Nepal and Turkey. The survey used questionnaires and the pictorial representation of illness and self measure (PRISM) tool. Results showed that (1) children's risk perceptions were in line with their country-specific objective risks; (2) there were differences between the countries in relation to perception of risk for all the hazards except wildfire; (3) socioeconomic status had a statistically significant effect on children's perceptions of risk and preparedness for earthquakes, wildfires, that is, children who live in wealthier places had higher perceived risk and preparedness; (4) children in both countries showed similar trends in their knowledge of the correct protective actions to take in the event of a hazard occurrence. However, there is still room to enhance children's knowledge, in terms of safety behaviors, as the children selected many incorrect protective actions. There are important implications in terms of child-centered disaster management which hopefully will make life safer and help to create more resilience to disaster in society as a whole.     

Psychological Determinants of Reactions to Food Risk Messages

In recent years, European countries have witnessed a number of food crises such as dioxin-contaminated chicken, foot-and-mouth disease, and BSE. In such cases, food might be contaminated by microorganisms or chemicals that could pose a risk to the consumer. These cases attract media attention and might instigate the consumer to reduce the consumption of the allegedly contaminated products. Although a decline in consumption of (potentially) contaminated products has been observed, it is not yet clear what determines the individual's reaction to food risk messages. To study the psychological determinants of the reaction to food risk messages, a survey was conducted in the Netherlands (n= 280). Subjects had to imagine two situations involving chicken contamination and report how they would react behaviorally if this situation occurred. Risk perception, affective response, perceived susceptibility to foodborne disease, self-efficacy, outcome expectation, trust, experience with foodborne disease, and need for information were also assessed. It was found that 60% of the subjects would allegedly avoid the risks by not consuming chicken for a while and approximately 60% would seek additional information. Risk avoidance was significantly related to information seeking and the psychological determinants, especially risk perception, affective response, need for information, perceived susceptibility to foodborne disease, and trust. Seeking information was also significantly related to risk perception, affective response, need for information, susceptibility to foodborne disease, and trust, but to a lesser degree. A model describing the relationships between the variables was tested using AMOS. Results are presented and implications are discussed.     

Risk Perception of Heavy Metal Soil Contamination by High-Exposed and Low-Exposed Inhabitants: The Role of Knowledge and Emotional Concerns

Soil contaminated with heavy metals is a salient example of environmental risk. Consumption of vegetables cultivated in contaminated soil or direct ingestion of soil by small children can damage health. In contrast to other kinds of pollution or risks such as air pollution or exposure to ozone, the individual risk concerning soil contamination is highly dependent on the way one is exposed to the local source of risk. Thus, we wanted to know if risk perception varies according to the level of exposure. A quasi-experimental, questionnaire-based study was conducted in a community in northwest Switzerland, where the soil is widely contaminated. The level of contamination varies with the distance from the source of the contamination, a metal processing plant. We investigated the perception of risk of heavy-metal-contaminated soil by inhabitants with high-exposure levels (N= 27) and those with low-exposure levels (N= 30). Both groups judged the risk for oneself similarly whereas the low-exposure group, when compared to the high-exposure group, judged perceived risk for other affected people living in their community to be higher. Besides this exposure effect, risk perception was mainly determined by emotional concerns. Participants with higher scores in self-estimated knowledge tended to provide low-risk judgments, were less interested in further information, showed low emotional concern, and thus displayed high risk acceptance. In contrast, actual knowledge showed no correlation with any of theses variables. Judgments on the need for decontamination are determined by risk perception, less application of dissonance-reducing heuristics and commitment to sustainability. The desire for additional information is not affected by missing knowledge but is affected by emotional concerns.     

Out of Sight,Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness

The persistent gap in flood risk awareness in Canada, and elsewhere in North America, is a continual source of worry for researchers and emergency managers; many people living in at‐risk places are simply unaware of risks and of their proximity to hazards. This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city's flood‐prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and costly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The article uses logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including the elevation of one's home relative to the river) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary's two rivers is also a significant predictor in some of the models, suggesting that the visibility of hazards matters for flood risk perception, although this effect fades when many of the geographic predictors are added. Finally, the models indicate that several variables related to local, neighborhood‐based social networks are significant as well. These findings reveal that both physical surroundings and social context are important for understanding risk awareness. The article concludes by discussing the relevance for social science research on disasters and hazards, as well as for planners and emergency managers.