BIRTHS, DEATHS, AND MARRIAGES IN THE U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKING INDUSTRY

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminated with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. This article examines whether deregulation affected new charter (birth), failure (death), and merger (marriage) rates of U.S. commercial banks from 1978 to 2004 after controlling for bank performance and state economic activity. We find strong evidence that intrastate and interstate deregulation stimulated marriages, but not births or deaths. Finally, temporal causality tests show that mergers temporally lead to new charters and that failures lead to mergers (a demonstration effect) . ( JEL G21, L51)     

VIETNAM RECONSIDERED: AN ATTITUDINAL SURVEY OF U.S. ARMY GENERAL OFFICERS

The 173 individuals who held U.S. Army general officer commandpositions in Vietnam during the period 1965–1972 weresurveyed in September 1974 about various aspects of that conflict.Their responses reflected a general dissatisfaction with Washingtonmanagement of the war. Perceptions of media coverage of thewar were very negative. A striking absence of consensus wasapparent in many areas of the survey     

THE SWINGS OF U.S. INFLATION AND THE GIBSON PARADOX

In recent business cycles, U.S. inflation has experienced a reduction of volatility and a severe weakening in the correlation to the nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). We examine these facts in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money. Our findings point at a flatter New Keynesian Phillips Curve (higher price stickiness) and a lower persistence of markup shocks as the main explanatory factors. In addition, a higher interest‐rate elasticity of money demand, an increasing role of demand‐side shocks, and a less systematic behavior of Fed's monetary policy also account for the recent patterns of U.S. inflation dynamics. (JEL E32, E47)     

SAME-GENDER SEX AMONG U.S. ADULTS: TRENDS ACROSS THE TWENTIETH CENTURY AND DURING THE 1990s

Trends in reporting of same-gender sex are assessed using datafrom the 1998–2002 General Social Surveys (Ns = 9,487males and 12,336 females). Analyses indicate that the reportedprevalence of female-female sexual contact increased substantiallyand monotonically across twentieth-century birth cohorts, risingfrom 1.6 percent (Standard error [SE] = 0.60) for the cohortof U.S. women born prior to 1920 to 6.9 percent (SE = 0.81)for women born in 1970 and afterward. Increases in the reportedprevalence of female-female contacts also occurred within the1990s. These trends persist when statistical controls are introducedfor changes in attitudes toward same-gender sexual behavior.No parallel trend is observed in the reporting of male-malesexual contacts during adulthood, although the proportion ofU.S. men reporting such contacts in the past year and in thepast five years increased during the 1990s.     

COMPETITION AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: THE CASE OF THE U.S. TELEPHONE INDUSTRY

The article focuses on the relation of competition to changes in productivity. Specifically, it compares the experience of AT&T Long Lines, operating in an increasingly competitive market, with that of eight local telephone monopolies. Both the estimation of total factor productivity growth and the analysis of shifts in cost functions show a markedly faster change in efficiency in the effectively competitive market than for the local monopolies. The article also examines three channels through which competition produces differential changes in efficiency. The results support, by implication, a policy of permitting entry and increasing competition in local telephone markets. ( JEL L11, L96)     

WITHIN U.S. TRADE AND THE LONG SHADOW OF THE AMERICAN SECESSION

Using data from U.S. commodity flow survey, we show that the historical Union–Confederacy border lowers contemporaneous trade between U.S. states by about 13%. The finding is robust over econometric models, survey waves, or aggregation levels. Including contemporaneous controls, such as network or institutional variables, lowers the estimate only slightly. Historical variables, such as slavery, do not explain the effect. Adding U.S. states unaffected by the Civil War, we argue that the friction is not merely reflecting unmeasured North–South differences. Finally, the border effect is larger for differentiated than for homogeneous goods, stressing the potential role for cultural factors and trust. (JEL F15, N72, N92, Z10)     

THE TECHNOLOGY FACTOR AND THE EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF U.S. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

The paper examines two central theories advanced to explain the revealed comparative advantage of U.S. industries. The neo-technological account centers on the process of innovation among industries and is represented in the regression analysis by an R&D intensity variable. The neofactor theory advances both human and "physical" capital as important variables in determining countries' comparative advantage. Foreign protection is postulated to affect the export performance of U.S. industries. Generally the results suggest that U.S. revealed comparative advantage is most pronounced in R&D intensive industries that give the U.S. a temporary technological lead in world markets.     

THE EFFECTS OF ASSET PURCHASES AND NORMALIZATION OF U.S. MONETARY POLICY

This paper examines changes in the effects of unconventional monetary policies in the United States. To this end, we estimate a Markov-switching VAR model with absorbing regimes to capture possible structural changes. Our results detect regime changes around the beginning of 2011 and the middle of 2013. Before 2011, the U.S. large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) had relatively large impacts on the real economy and prices, but after the middle of 2013, their effects were weaker and less-persistent. In addition, after the middle of 2013, which includes the monetary policy normalization period, the asset purchase (or balance sheet) shocks had slightly weaker effects than during the early stage of the LSAPs but stronger effects than during the late stage of the LSAPs, while interest rate shocks had insignificant effects on the real economy and prices. Finally, our results suggest that the positive responses of durables and capital goods expenditures to interest rate shocks weakened the negative impacts of interest rate hikes after the middle of 2013 including the period of monetary policy normalization. (JEL C32, E21, E52)     

STABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE U.S. PUBLIC'S KNOWLEDGE OF POLITICS

The U.S. public's current knowledge about politics is comparedwith levels of knowlege in the 1940s and 1950s. Fourteen questionsasked by Gallup on various surveys from 1945 to 1957 were includedon a larger survey of political knowledge conducted by telephonein 1989 with a randomly selected sample of 610 adult U.S. residents.On 8 of the 14 items, the percentage answering correctly in1989 was higher than in the earlier surveys (by 4–15 points).One item showed an increase of 1 percent, two were down 1 percent,and three others declined by 5 percent, 9 percent, and 10 percent.When level of education is controlled, however, levels of knowledgeappear to have declined for most of the items. A reanalysisof some of the original Gallup data is used to estimate theeffectiveness of schools in transmitting political informationin 1989 compared with the earlier years.     

U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND THE DOLLAR

This paper examines the connection between U.S. military expenditure and the dollar-mark real exchange rate. Quarterly data for the period 1951.1–1986.3 are used to show that there exists a significant relationship linking real exchange rate, real military spending, and real GNP. The conclusion is based on evidence that these three variables are cointegrated.     

DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF HOUSING IN THE U.S.: 1929–1978

Annual data for the period 1929–1978 are used to estimate a complete model of demand and supply of housing services and consumption goods in the U.S. by maximum likelihood methods. The demand functions are derived by maximizing a utility function characterized by weak inter-temporal separability. Utility in each period is assumed to be of a generalized CES type with housing services and consumption goods as arguments. The estimating demand relation is transformed into a relatively simple form by focusing on the relative demand of housing to consumption goods. It is found that the intra-temporal elasticity of substitution between housing and consumption goods is unitary. The maximum likelihood estimates of the other parameters of the elementary utility function are also presented. Finally, it is noted that by estimating the structure of individual preferences a basis is established for the calculation of long-run efficiency gains of a change in the tax treatment of housing.     

WAR AND PESTILENCE AS LABOR MARKET SHOCKS: U.S. MANUFACTURING WAGE GROWTH 1914–1919

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War I on wage growth in the manufacturing sector of U.S. states and cities from 1914–1919. The hypothesis is that both events decreased manufacturing labor supply, thereby initially increasing the marginal product of labor and wages. The results reveal that states and cities having had greater influenza mortalities experienced higher wage growth—roughly 2–3 percentage points for a 10% change in per capita mortalities. World War I combat mortalities also had a positive, but smaller, effect on wage growth. ( JEL N62, N32, N92, I12)     

THE TIMING OF WELFARE PAYMENTS AND INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE

I examine transfer schedules for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program and find a causal relationship between the time directly after welfare payments and intimate partner violence against women. This study supports the hypothesis that the husband uses threats of violence as an instrument to gain control over the allocation of household resources, and suggests that the increased incidence in physical violence after welfare payments is associated with alcohol use. Additionally, I find that states that pay TANF recipients twice a month do not have this effect on threats of violence. This suggests that smaller, more frequent payments may reduce the husband's incentive to use verbal violence as a bargaining tool. (JEL I38, J18, J12)     

IMPLICATIONS OF IMMIGRATION POLICIES FOR THE U.S. FARM SECTOR AND WORKFORCE

We develop a theoretical model using migration and trade theory to examine the effects of domestic and border enforcement policies on unauthorized workers and the U.S. agricultural sector. The theoretical results show that heightened immigration policies increase the illegal farm wage rate, and reduce the employment of unauthorized farm workers and exports. The empirical analysis show that increased domestic enforcements curtail the number of undocumented farm workers by an average of 8,947 and commodity exports to Mexico by an average of $180 million. The tighter border control curbs illegal farm workers by 8,147 and reduces farm exports by $181 million. (JEL F160)     

THE VALUE OF RISK: MEASURING THE SERVICE OUTPUT OF U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKS

Banks often charge implicitly for their services via interest spreads, instead of explicit fees. Much of bank output thus has to be estimated indirectly. In contrast to current statistical practice, dynamic optimizing models of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find that in the U.S. National Accounts between 1997 and 2007, bank output was overestimated by 21% and gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.3%. Compared with current methods, our new estimates imply more plausible estimates of the income share of capital and the return on fixed capital of the banking industry. (JEL E01, E44, O47)