What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

Demography of disaster: Population estimates after hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural disasters.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Miami, Florida, USA.     

Migration in market and democracy transition: Migration intentions and behavior in Romania

This paper analyzes the determinants of migration decision-making in the context of recent market and democratic transition in Romania. Using early 1990s internal migration survey, census and population register data, the results from Lisrel path models show that market and democracy value orientation variables are significant determinants of intentions to move, controlling for individual and regional social structural and resource indicators. Similarly, district-level out-migration behavior is directly determined by the political profile of the local area. Results from the total and disaggregated rural and urban models are interpreted through a reform values and characteristics typology of migrants. At least in the early stages of Romanian transition, the results indicate that migration choice behavior is governed by a search for places with greatest opportunities in terms of market and democracy returns. Implications of the results for political system and public policy decision are discussed.     

人口学视野下的婚姻家庭研究：内容与方法

人口学视野下的婚姻家庭研究在其内容与方法上呈现出鲜明的特色。本文采用文献计量分析方法。将新中国成立以来人口学婚姻家庭研究的发展划分为两个主要阶段．并分别对婚姻和家庭研究及其主要方法进行了归纳分析,发现人口学研究着重于将婚姻家庭放在整个人口生命周期中,与各主要人口事件和人口过程相联系,尤其关注婚姻家庭与生育之间的关系,指出婚姻家庭作为重要的人口事件和人口社会经济特征,其研究的进一步拓展与深化需要结合多学科视角。     

人口学是一门具有广泛应用价值的很有发展前途的科学

人口学的社会认知形象不清或偏狭 ,对人口学的地位、作用和学科发展造成了不利的影响 ,也是造成我国目前人口学研究萎缩的重要原因之一。人口学是一门很年轻的、在我国还远远没有被开发的很有发展前途的科学。应以市场经济为背景 ,从深化人口学的学科研究、专业人才培养和应用开发三个方面来解决当前人口科学发展问题。     

Migration expectancy revisited: Results for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

Planners in a variety of situations require an improved understanding of migration trends if services and products that adequately meet constituent needs are to be provided. This note focuses on changes in migration expectancy over three decades in the context of the planning function. Using the CPS one-year migration question for the periods 1975–1976, 1980–1981, and 1987–1991, and the work of Wilber (1963) and Long (1973) as historical benchmarks, migration expectancy is found to have fallen since the earlier studies. Longer-distance migration (between counties and between states) has remained relatively constant over the same period so that these types of moves now account for a larger proportion of total residential mobility. The results are discussed in the context of their value to individuals and organizations who seek a better understanding of demographically-driven demand from services and products.This article is based on a paper presented at the Southern Demographic Association annual meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 22 October 1993.     

Demographic data and geographic information systems for decision making: The case of public health

Recent changes in the United States health care system include a broadened definition of health and renewed focus on public health. Increasingly, demographic analyses are incorporated into public health decision-making. Analysts also are using geographic information more routinely, because Geographic Information System (GIS) software is becoming easier to use. The paper describes three cases in which demographers used GIS to analyze the spatial distribution of public health data. The first case, from Santa Clara County, California, focuses on adolescent sexually transmitted diseases in secondary school districts. The second case, also from Santa Clara County, maps preventable hospitalizations of senior citizens. The third examines the distribution of premature births in Tennessee counties. The researchers applied demographic techniques and perspectives in each case, and each case produced information that is being used by officials who plan health education campaigns and services.     

Geographic Information Systems and Spatial Data Processing in Demography: a Review

This paper reviews the use of geographic information systems (GIS) software for spatial data processing in demography. The review begins with an introduction to GIS. Next, it traces the three major types of spatial data problems confronting demographers: the geocoding and geoprocessing of microdata, estimation of detailed population surfaces, and combining data aggregated to incompatible zone systems. GIS and non-GIS solutions to these problems are contrasted, with examples from published research. Spatially pre-processed datasets available to demographers are then discussed. The author concludes by noting that the solutions GIS provides to previously intractable data problems in spatial demography might encourage a focus on dynamic processes of population change in local areas.     

Short-term, population-based forecasting in the public sector

There has recently been a tremendous expansion of the range of problems to which the demographic perspective is applied. Development of a new population-based method to solve the problem of forecasting income assistance caseloads for the state of Washington represents yet another effort in which the demographic perspective helps solve two major public-policy problems: (1) providing accurate and useful forecasts of caseloads, and (2) creating a dynamic model with which to analyze alternative policy proposals. When forecasting or examining the caseload history, it is also common to look at these caseload levels as a time-series. A caseload grows and shrinks as time passes because new members enter the caseload from a population of potential clients while other members exit the caseload. Population-based forecasting, as reported here, is really quite a novel approach to forecasting public assistance caseloads. In most situations, simple extrapolations of past trends or econometric time-series models are used. Characteristics associated with entries and exits can be used to develop dynamic models of current and future caseload changes. For budgeting purposes, these models can be readily translated into average annual caseload levels and can be directly used to examine policy alternatives and programmatic options. Entry and exit rates and volumes can be related to historical, current, and anticipated changes in economic, social, and programmatic conditions to develop models of caseload behavior, and ultimately, forecasts of caseload levels that are used for budget development.     

Population and housing

The analysis described here was carried out in response to a political crisis in Australia. In 1994, a Member of Parliament who opposed the use of foreign aid funds for family planning programs blocked the passage of the national budget. The impasse was resolved through a compromise. The use of foreign assistance for population activities was frozen pending an independent inquiry into the impact of population on economic development. A team of nine researchers prepared background papers on population and economic development, health, education, food supply, housing, poverty, the environment, family planning, and human rights. The overall conclusion of the inquiry was that slower population growth will yield more rapid development in most countries, especially in relatively poor, agricultural nations. The purpose of this contribution to the inquiry was to assess how population growth was affecting the housing sector and, in turn, economic development. Among other questions, does population growth increase the demand for residential land, housing, and urban infrastructure? Demographic methods were critical to answering the questions, especially assessing the impact of population growth on the demand for housing.     

Unveiling the demographic ‘action’ in class-action lawsuits: Two instructional cases

Population Research and Policy Review - Population turnover, cohort survival, and intercohort transmission of effects are concepts widely applicable beyond the customary domains of demographic...     

Ties that bind: A case study of the link between employers, families, and health benefits

Most US residents receive health benefits from their employer. Groups of employees and their families are therefore the basis for health care financing. Health care costs rose dramatically during the 1980s and employers looked for ways to control them. One approach is to control the size of the group provided health benefits by an employer. This paper uses a demographic perspective to explore the determinants of change in an employer's group. It examines the linkages among employer policies, employee turnover, and family dynamics. How much control does an employer have over group size? We identify the relative contributions of employment and demographic processes to changing group size. We use a decomposition technique based on matching individual records between consecutive years. We apply this technique to a case study of the health benefits group consisting of General Motors salaried employees and their families. We find that employers face limits to the control that they can exert over the size of the health benefits group associated with their active workforce. Demographic processes unrelated to employee turnover or transfers to layoff or retirement accounted for a large portion of the population change in the case study.     

The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national Baby Boomlet, a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans.Paper presented at the Fifteenth Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Toronto, Canada, 4–7 June 1995.     

Applying demographic analysis to store site selection

This case study illustrates how applied demographic analysis can help structure business decisionmaking. We screened every one of several thousand square miles within metropolitan Southern California to identify the 10 best locations for a large supermarket catering to onestop shoppers. Locations were selected based on potential sales volume (irrespective of nearby competitors), future stability of the resident consumer base, and specific demographic factors likely to enhance sales potential among target shoppers (e.g., dual-earner families). The client placed as much importance on how the results were derived as on our recommendations. As a result, our analytic framework for comparing high-potential locations played a central role in structuring the client's thinking. This framework, together with the empirical analysis, illustrate how applied demographers can operationalize business questions about consumer markets and guide a client toward a more systematic way of reaching decisions.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1987 Population Association of America Meetings, Chicago, USA.     

Applying demographic analysis in affirmative action disputes: An instructional case

This instructional case study illustrates applications of demographic concepts, data, and techniques in evaluating affirmative action goals for equalizing employment opportunity. Courts of law addressing employment discrimination disputes need an accurate picture of each minority group's proportion in a pool of prospective employees. The demographic and socioeconomic factors conditioning those proportions vary from place to place. In the situation examined here, the court originally used an imperfect population standard to set hiring goals. The case traces the multiple failures to account for those conditioning influences and describes the resulting distortions of legal purpose. In analyzing this failure, students gain experience in clarifying issues in dispute, devising measures to fit legal standards, and delineating qualified labor pools. Specific instructional applications include: using census data to document how local population structure and composition determine each minority group's presence in the workforce; and using administrative data to delineate the relevant labor pools for setting affirmative action goals. Training is broadly suited to assignments where applied demographers must delineate the ethnic and racial composition of a pool of workers eligible to be hired or promoted.     

Evaluating Evidence of Discrimination in Multiethnic Housing Markets

Landlords and realtors occasionally are identified as causal agents in the creation or maintenance of segregated neighborhoods. The existence of racial/ethnic separation at local scales, however, is no sure proof of illegal discriminatory acts or intentions by housing market agents. Other factors can and do produce racial/ethnic separation within neighborhoods. Applied demographic analysis can play a part in clarifying what constitutes discrimination and in evaluating the statistical data used to screen for unlawful acts of discrimination within local housing markets. We report a study of tenancy and tenancy turnover in a group of apartment buildings located in a densely settled and ethnically diverse neighborhood in Los Angeles. Turnover in these buildings altered the ethnic mix of tenants, increasing the Asian proportion and decreasing the Hispanic proportion. We trace this change to two market processes that differentiate tenants economically and by differing preferences for luxurious housing: (1) an upgrading of housing stock, which repositioned certain rental units at a higher price point; and (2) the market response to newly-available luxury units. These processes promote ethnically homogeneous apartment-building “neighborhoods” within an otherwise unsegregated ethnically diverse area.

Demographic influences on Latinos' political empowerment: Comparative local illustrations

Population Research and Policy Review - How do Latinos gain local political power, given their demographic proportions and characteristics in a community's population? This paper examines the...     

Several recent Supreme Court decisions and their implications for political redistricting in Voting Rights Act context

This paper focuses on four recent United States Supreme Court decisions which have profound implications for political redistricting. These cases are Holder v. Hall, Johnson v. De Grandy, Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson. Each of these cases place limits on the scope of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act when conducting a political redistricting or fashioning a remedy for a Section 2 violation. These cases have resolved a number of important issues in redistricting while creating yet new issues to be resolved. Although demographers are not in the business of practicing law, they must clearly understand the legal requirements and often subtle nuances imposed by the case law. The paper concludes that the combined force of these cases does not yet spell the end of race conscious redistricting and therefore, effectively repeal the Voting Rights Act but does require that more weight be given to traditional redistricting criteria when designing districts that will withstand legal challenges.     

Influencing factors in midwives’ decision-making during childbirth: A qualitative study in the Netherlands

Background

Dutch maternity care is based on the principle that pregnancy and childbirth are physiological processes. However, the last decade an increase of intra-partum referrals to obstetric-led care has been observed. Most of these referrals are among nulliparous women, non-urgent and occur during the first stage of labour. The increase in referrals seems not associated with better perinatal outcomes.