Smooth nonparametric quantile estimation under censoring: simulations and bootstrap methods

Based on right-censored data from a lifetime distribution F , a smooth nonparametric estimator of the quantile function Q (p) is given by Qn(p)=h 1jjQn(t)K((t-p)/h)dt, where QR(p) denotes the product-limit quantile function. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations indicate that at fixed p this kernel-type quantile estimator has smaller mean squared error than (L(p) for a range of values of the bandwidth h. A method of selecting an "optimal" bandwidth (in the sense of small estimated mean squared error) based on the bootstrap is investigated yielding results consistent with the simulation study. The bootstrap is also used to obtain interval estimates for Q (p) after determining the optimal value of h.     

Multiparameter estimation in truncated power series distributions under the stein's loss

LetX ₁,…,X _p be p(≥2)independent random variables, where each X.has a distribution belonging to a one parameter truncated power series

distribution. The problem is to estimate simultaneously the unknown parameters under asymmetric loss developed by James and Stein (Proc. Fourth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob. 1, 361-380). Several new classes of dominating estimators are obtained by solving a certain difference inequality.     

Tail exponent estimation via broadband log density-quantile regression

Heavy tail probability distributions are important in many scientific disciplines such as hydrology, geology, and physics and therefore feature heavily in statistical practice. Rather than specifying a family of heavy-tailed distributions for a given application, it is more common to use a nonparametric approach, where the distributions are classified according to the tail behavior. Through the use of the logarithm of Parzen's density-quantile function, this work proposes a consistent, flexible estimator of the tail exponent. The approach we develop is based on a Fourier series estimator and allows for separate estimates of the left and right tail exponents. The theoretical properties for the tail exponent estimator are determined, and we also provide some results of independent interest that may be used to establish weak convergence of stochastic processes. We assess the practical performance of the method by exploring its finite sample properties in simulation studies. The overall performance is competitive with classical tail index estimators, and, in contrast, with these our method obtains somewhat better results in the case of lighter heavy-tailed distributions.     

Utilizing auxiliary variables in sequential ratio and regression estimation schemes

Ratio and regression estimators for a mean are considered in conjunction with certain sequential sampling schemes. An auxiliary variable is assumed present and both fixed-cost and fixed- width confidence interval stopping rules are investigated. The asymptotic distributions of the estimators are derived as well as optimal probabilities pertinent to the schemes. Comparisons are made with results of certain double sampling procedures. Estimation of the ratio of two means is also considered and the results of a Monte Carlo simulation are included.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of un1modal and decreasing densities based on arbitrarily right-censored data

Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of decreasing and unimodal density functions based on observations subject to arbitrary right censorship is considered. The maximum likelihood estimator of both types of densities is shown to exist and is a step function. The estimators may be computed for small samples by maximizing nonlinear equations subject to linear constraints, and the SUMT algorithm for constrained nonlinear optimization is used for the necessary calculations in an example.     

Robust estimation for zero-inflated poisson autoregressive models based on density power divergence

In this study, we consider a robust estimation for zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive models using the minimum density power divergence estimator designed by Basu et al. [Robust and efficient estimation by minimising a density power divergence. Biometrika. 1998;85:549–559]. We show that under some regularity conditions, the proposed estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The performance of the estimator is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. A real data analysis using New South Wales crime data is also provided for illustration.     

Minimax estimation of normal precisions via expansion estimators

In this paper, the simultaneous estimation of the precision parameters of k normal distributions is considered under the squared loss function in a decision-theoretic framework. Several classes of minimax estimators are derived by using the chi-square identity, and the generalized Bayes minimax estimators are developed out of the classes. It is also shown that the improvement on the unbiased estimators is characterized by the superharmonic function. This corresponds to Stein's [1981. Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution. Ann. Statist. 9, 1135–1151] result in simultaneous estimation of normal means.     

Tail index estimation in small smaples Simulation results for independent and ARCH-type financial return models

Estimation of the tail index of stationary, fat-tailed return distributions is non-trivial since the well-known Hill estimator is optimal only under iid draws from an exact Pareto model. We provide a small sample simulation study of recently suggested adaptive estimators under ARCH-type dependence. The Hill estimator’s performance is found to be dominated by a ratio estimator. Dependence increases estimation error which can remain substantial even in larger data sets. As small sample bias is related to the magnitude of the tail index, recent standard applications may have overestimated (underestimated) the risk of assets with low (high) degrees of fat-tailedness. This paper is a shortened version of the Berkeley Research Program in Finance Working Paper RPF-295. Thanks are to the Center for Mathematical Sciences at Munich University of Technology for generously providing access to computer facilities and to participants at the IAFE 2001 Budapest, OR 2002 Klagenfurt, EIR 2002 London, DGF 2002 Cologne, FBI 2002 Karlsruhe conferences and the 2001 Wallis Workshop for helpful comments. Two anonymous referees provided helpful suggestions in streamlining the material. Niklas Wagner acknowledges a Maple program by Klaus Kiefersbeck and financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).     

Smooth nonparametric estimation of thedistribution and density functions from record-breaking data

In some experiments, such as destructive stress testing and industrial quality control experiments, only values smaller than all previous ones are observed. Here, for such record-breaking data, kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function and smooth density estimation is considered. For a single record-breaking sample, consistent estimation is not possible, and replication is required for global results. For m independent record-breaking samples, the proposed distribution function and density estimators are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal as m → ∞. Also, for small m, the mean squared errors and biases of the estimators and their smoothing parameters are investigated through computer simulations.     

A note on non-negative mean square error estimation of regression estimators in randomized response surveys

Generalized regression estimators are considered for the survey population total of a quantitative sensitive variable based on randomized responses. Formulae are presented for ‘non-negative’ estimators of approximate mean square errors of these biased estimators when population and sample sizes are large.     

Stable estimation of location parameter -nonasymptotic approach

Let X₁:, X₂:, …, X_n be iidrv's with cdf F?, F?(x)=F (x-θ), R. Let T be an equivariant median-unbiased estimator of θ. Let πε(F)={G = (1 -ε) F+εH, H any cdf} and let M(G, T) be a median of T if X₁ has cdf G. The oscillation of the bias of T, defined as

Bε(T)=sup (M(G₁ T) :G₁,G₂:∈π_σ:(F)} ,is considered and the estimator with the smallest B$epsi;(T) is explicitly constructed     

Mutual information as a measure of multivariate association: analytical properties and statistical estimation

Mutual information (also known as Kullback–Leibler divergence) can be viewed as a measure of multivariate association in a random vector. The definition incorporates the joint density as well as the marginal densities. We will focus on a representation of mutual information in terms of copula densities that is thus independent of the marginal distributions. This representation yields a different approach to estimating mutual information than the original definition does, as only the copula density has to be estimated. We review analytical properties and examples for selected distributions and discuss methods of nonparametric estimation of copula densities and hence of the mutual information from a sample. Based on a simulation study, we compare the performance of these estimators with respect to bias, standard deviation, and the root mean squared error. The Gauss and the Frank copula are considered as examples.     

A target distribution model for nonparametric density estimation

In this paper a model is proposed which represents a wide class of continuous distributions. It is shown how the parameters of this model can be estimated leading to a distribution estimator and a corresponding density estimator. An important property of this estimator is that it can be structured to reflect a priori knowledge of the unknown distribution.

Finally, some examples are shown and some comparisons made with kernel and orthogonal series estimators.     

A Bayesian approach with generalized ridge estimation for high-dimensional regression and testing

This paper adopts a Bayesian strategy for generalized ridge estimation for high-dimensional regression. We also consider significance testing based on the proposed estimator, which is useful for selecting regressors. Both theoretical and simulation studies show that the proposed estimator can simultaneously outperform the ordinary ridge estimator and the LSE in terms of the mean square error (MSE) criterion. The simulation study also demonstrates the competitive MSE performance of our proposal with the Lasso under sparse models. We demonstrate the method using the lung cancer data involving high-dimensional microarrays.     

Density estimation under the koziol-green model of censoring by penalized likelihood methods

We propose two density estimators of the survival distribution in the setting of the Koziol-Green random-censoring model. The estimators are obtained by maximum-penalized-likelihood methods, and we provide an algorithm for their numerical evaluation. We establish the strong consistency of the estimators in the Hellinger metric, the L_p-norms, p= 1,2, ∞, and a Sobolev norm, under mild conditions on the underlying survival density and the censoring distribution.