Comparisons of methods of estimation for a pareto distribution of the first kind

This paper compares methods of estimation for the parameters of a Pareto distribution of the first kind to determine which method provides the better estimates when the observations are censored, The unweighted least squares (LS) and the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are presented for both censored and uncensored data. The MLE's are obtained using two methods, In the first, called the ML method, it is shown that log-likelihood is maximized when the scale parameter is the minimum sample value. In the second method, called the modified ML (MML) method, the estimates are found by utilizing the maximum likelihood value of the shape parameter in terms of the scale parameter and the equation for the mean of the first order statistic as a function of both parameters. Since censored data often occur in applications, we study two types of censoring for their effects on the methods of estimation: Type II censoring and multiple random censoring. In this study we consider different sample sizes and several values of the true shape and scale parameters.

Comparisons are made in terms of bias and the mean squared error of the estimates. We propose that the LS method be generally preferred over the ML and MML methods for estimating the Pareto parameter γ for all sample sizes, all values of the parameter and for both complete and censored samples. In many cases, however, the ML estimates are comparable in their efficiency, so that either estimator can effectively be used. For estimating the parameter α, the LS method is also generally preferred for smaller values of the parameter (α ≤4). For the larger values of the parameter, and for censored samples, the MML method appears superior to the other methods with a slight advantage over the LS method. For larger values of the parameter α, for censored samples and all methods, underestimation can be a problem.     

Allocating observations in a test for the ratio of scales of independent gamma variates

Consider two independent gamma populations with common shape parameter α. Let ρ denote the ratio of their scale parameters, and consider the problem of testing the null hypothesis ρ = 1 against the alternative ρ = 1 + r , where r >0 . A procedure, not depending on α , that maximizes the exact slope at this alternative is proposed.     

M31. Least squares solutions over interval restrictions

In this article, the three-parameter I.G. distribution is standardized with zero mean and unit variance. The third standard moment α₃ is employed as the shape parameter. Tables of the cumulative probability function are given as a function of the standardized variate z, and of the shape parameter, α₃. Various comparisons are made with the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions.     

Bias reduction in the estimation of a shape second-order parameter of a heavy-tailed model

In extreme value theory, the shape second-order parameter is a quite relevant parameter related to the speed of convergence of maximum values, linearly normalized, towards its limit law. The adequate estimation of this parameter is vital for improving the estimation of the extreme value index, the primary parameter in statistics of extremes. In this article, we consider a recent class of semi-parametric estimators of the shape second-order parameter for heavy right-tailed models. These estimators, based on the largest order statistics, depend on a real tuning parameter, which makes them highly flexible and possibly unbiased for several underlying models. In this article, we are interested in the adaptive choice of such tuning parameter and the number of top order statistics used in the estimation procedure. The performance of the methodology for the adaptive choice of parameters is evaluated through a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

Confidence limits for stress–strength reliability involving Weibull models

The problem of interval estimation of the stress–strength reliability involving two independent Weibull distributions is considered. An interval estimation procedure based on the generalized variable (GV) approach is given when the shape parameters are unknown and arbitrary. The coverage probabilities of the GV approach are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation studies show that the proposed generalized variable approach is very satisfactory even for small samples. For the case of equal shape parameter, it is shown that the generalized confidence limits are exact. Some available asymptotic methods for the case of equal shape parameter are described and their coverage probabilities are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation studies indicate that no asymptotic approach based on the likelihood method is satisfactory even for large samples. Applicability of the GV approach for censored samples is also discussed. The results are illustrated using an example.     

Simple approximate inference procedures for the mean of the gammma distribution

A very simple procedure is provided for computing the approximate p—value of a one—sided test concerning the mean of a gamma distribution when both parameters are assumed unknown. No special tables are required, and the associated confidence intervals can also be easily constructed. Exact tests free of the shape parameter are not available, but the approximate procedure is shown by Monte Carlo simulation to provide good results over the useful range of parameter values and sample sizes     

Noninformative priors for the generalized half-normal distribution

In this paper, we develop noninformative priors for the generalized half-normal distribution when scale and shape parameters are of interest, respectively. Especially, we develop the first and second order matching priors for both parameters. For the shape parameter, we reveal that the second order matching prior is a highest posterior density (HPD) matching prior and a cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching prior. In addition, it matches the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. For the scale parameter, we reveal that the second order matching prior is neither a HPD matching prior nor a CDF matching prior. Also, it does not match the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. For both parameters, we present that the one-at-a-time reference prior is a second order matching prior. However, Jeffreys’ prior is neither a first nor a second order matching prior. Methods are illustrated with both a simulation study and a real data set.     

C335. Some numerology for the mass ratio of proton to electron,and a partially Bayesian evaluation

Recent small sample studies of estimators for the shape parameter a of the negative binomial distribution (NBD) tend to indicate that the choice of estimator can be reduced to a choice between the method of moments estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), maximum quasi-likelihood estimator and the conditional likelihood estimator (CLE). In this paper the results of a comprehensive simulation study are reported to assist with the choice from these four estimators. The study includes a traditional procedure for assessing estimators for the shape parameter of the NBD and in addition introduces an alternative assessment procedure. Based on the traditional approach the CLE is considered to perform the best overall for the range of parameter values and sample sizes considered. The alternative assessment procedure indicates that the MLE is the preferred estimator.     

ON THE COVERAGE PROBABILITY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN REGRESSION AFTER VARIABLE SELECTION

This paper considers a linear regression model with regression parameter vector β. The parameter of interest is θ= a^Tβ where a is specified. When, as a first step, a data‐based variable selection (e.g. minimum Akaike information criterion) is used to select a model, it is common statistical practice to then carry out inference about θ, using the same data, based on the (false) assumption that the selected model had been provided a priori. The paper considers a confidence interval for θ with nominal coverage 1 ‐ α constructed on this (false) assumption, and calls this the naive 1 ‐ α confidence interval. The minimum coverage probability of this confidence interval can be calculated for simple variable selection procedures involving only a single variable. However, the kinds of variable selection procedures used in practice are typically much more complicated. For the real‐life data presented in this paper, there are 20 variables each of which is to be either included or not, leading to 2²⁰ different models. The coverage probability at any given value of the parameters provides an upper bound on the minimum coverage probability of the naive confidence interval. This paper derives a new Monte Carlo simulation estimator of the coverage probability, which uses conditioning for variance reduction. For these real‐life data, the gain in efficiency of this Monte Carlo simulation due to conditioning ranged from 2 to 6. The paper also presents a simple one‐dimensional search strategy for parameter values at which the coverage probability is relatively small. For these real‐life data, this search leads to parameter values for which the coverage probability of the naive 0.95 confidence interval is 0.79 for variable selection using the Akaike information criterion and 0.70 for variable selection using Bayes information criterion, showing that these confidence intervals are completely inadequate.     

Goodness of fit test for the generalized Rayleigh distribution with unknown parameters

The use of goodness-of-fit test based on Anderson–Darling (AD) statistic is discussed, with reference to the composite hypothesis that a sample of observations comes from a generalized Rayleigh distribution whose parameters are unspecified. Monte Carlo simulation studies were performed to calculate the critical values for AD test. These critical values are then used for testing whether a set of observations follows a generalized Rayleigh distribution when the scale and shape parameters are unspecified and are estimated from the sample. Functional relationship between the critical values of AD is also examined for each shape parameter (α), sample size (n) and significance level (γ). The power study is performed with the hypothesized generalized Rayleigh against alternate distributions.     

Estimation for the Generalized Pareto Distribution Using Maximum Likelihood and Goodness of Fit

In this article, we introduce a new estimator for the generalized Pareto distribution, which is based on the maximum likelihood estimation and the goodness of fit. The asymptotic normality of the new estimator is shown and a small simulation. From the simulation, the performance of the new estimator is roughly comparable with maximum likelihood for positive values of the shape parameter and often much better than maximum likelihood for negative values.     

A Note on Criterion-Robust Optimal Designs for Model Discrimination and Parameter Estimation in Polynomial Regression Models

Consider the problem of discriminating between the polynomial regression models on [?1, 1] and estimating parameters in the models. Zen and Tsai (2002 Zen , M. M. , Tsai , M. H. ( 2002 ). Some criterion-robust optimal designs for the dual problem of model discrimination and parameter estimation . Sankhya Ind. J. Statist. 64 : (Series B, Pt. 3) : 322 – 338 . [Google Scholar]) proposed a multiple-objective optimality criterion, M _γ-criterion, which uses weight γ (0 ≤ γ ≤ 1) for model discrimination and α = β = (1 ? γ)/2 for parameter estimation in each model. In this article, we generalize it to a wider setup with different values of α and β. For instance, α = 2 β suggests that the “smaller” model is more likely to be the true model. Using similar techniques, the corresponding criterion-robust optimal design is investigated. A study for the original criterion-robust optimal design with α = β, through M-efficiency, shows that it is good enough for any wider setup.     

Statistical inference about the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution by upper record values

Summary In this paper, we provide some pivotal quantities to test and establish confidence interval of the shape parameter on the basis of the firstn observed upper record values. Finally, we give some examples and the Monte Carlo simulation to assess the behaviors (including higher power and more shorter length of confidence interval) of these pivotal quantities for testing null hypotheses and establishing confidence interval concerning the shape parameter under the given significance level and the given confidence coefficient, respectively.     

Estimation and comparison of the stress-strength models with more than two states under Weibull distribution and type II censoring scheme

This paper presents the extension of the inferences on the stress-strength reliability in more than two states to the system depending on the ratio of the strength and stress values when the stress and strength follow independent exponential distributions. The main objective of present paper is to consider different method of estimation, under Type II censoring, for the stress-strength models and to compare them, in more than two states, to the system depending on the ratio of the strength and stress values, when the stress and strength follow independent Weibull distributions, sharing the common shape parameter α.     

Robust Bayesian analysis of generalized inverted family of distributions

ABSTRACT

In the current study we develop the robust Bayesian inference for the generalized inverted family of distributions (GIFD) under an ε-contamination class of prior distributions for the shape parameter α, with different possibilities of known and unknown scale parameter. We used Type II censoring and Bartholomew sampling scheme (1963) for the following derivations under the squared-error loss function (SELF) and linear exponential (LINEX) loss function : ML-II Bayes estimators of the i) parameters; ii) Reliability function and; iii) Hazard function. We also present simulation study and analysis of a real data set.     

Graphical Tests for the Assumption of Gamma and Inverse Gaussian Frailty Distributions

The common choices of frailty distribution in lifetime data models include the Gamma and Inverse Gaussian distributions. We present diagnostic plots for these distributions when frailty operates in a proportional hazards framework. Firstly, we present plots based on the form of the unconditional survival function when the baseline hazard is assumed to be Weibull. Secondly, we base a plot on a closure property that applies for any baseline hazard, namely, that the frailty distribution among survivors at time t has the same form as the original distribution, with the same shape parameter but different scale parameter. We estimate the shape parameter at different values of t and examine whether it is constant, that is, whether plotted values form a straight line parallel to the time axis. We provide simulation results assuming Weibull baseline hazard and an example to illustrate the methods.     

Non-informative priors for the inverse Weibull distribution

In this paper, we develop the non-informative priors for the inverse Weibull model when the parameters of interest are the scale and the shape parameters. We develop the first-order and the second-order matching priors for both parameters. For the scale parameter, we reveal that the second-order matching prior is not a highest posterior density (HPD) matching prior, does not match the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and is not a cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching prior. Also for the shape parameter, we reveal that the second-order matching prior is an HPD matching prior and a CDF matching prior and also matches the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. For both parameters, we reveal that the one-at-a-time reference prior is the second-order matching prior, but Jeffreys’ prior is not the first-order and the second-order matching prior. A simulation study is performed to compare the target coverage probabilities and a real example is given.     

Properties of the Weibull cumulative exposure model

This article is aimed at the investigation of some properties of the Weibull cumulative exposure model on multiple-step step-stress accelerated life test data. Although the model includes a probabilistic idea of Miner's rule in order to express the effect of cumulative damage in fatigue, our result shows that the application of only this is not sufficient to express degradation of specimens and the shape parameter must be larger than 1. For a random variable obeying the model, its average and standard deviation are investigated on a various sets of parameter values. In addition, a way of checking the validity of the model is illustrated through an example of the maximum likelihood estimation on an actual data set, which is about time to breakdown of cross-linked polyethylene-insulated cables.