均值和方差双重变点的贝叶斯侦测

 本文应用贝叶斯方法研究了股价时序的均值和方差双重变点问题。基于后验概率比,我们提出一个类似ICSS算法的快速侦测算法。通过对上证指数时序的实证分析,我们总共发现5处方差突变。其中,3处是均值和方差双重变点,它们都对应中国股市的重大结构变化。     

Matching pursuit by undecimated discrete wavelet transform for non-stationary time series of arbitrary length

We describe how to formulate a matching pursuit algorithm which successively approximates a periodic non-stationary time series with orthogonal projections onto elements of a suitable dictionary. We discuss how to construct such dictionaries derived from the maximal overlap (undecimated) discrete wavelet transform (MODWT). Unlike the standard discrete wavelet transform (DWT), the MODWT is equivariant under circular shifts and may be computed for an arbitrary length time series, not necessarily a multiple of a power of 2. We point out that when using the MODWT and continuing past the level where the filters are wrapped, the norms of the dictionary elements may, depending on N, deviate from the required value of unity and require renormalization.We analyse a time series of subtidal sea levels from Crescent City, California. The matching pursuit shows in an iterative fashion how localized dictionary elements (scale and position) account for residual variation, and in particular emphasizes differences in construction for varying parts of the series.     

A wavelet-based approach to the analysis and modelling of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence: the case of Southeast Europe

This paper demonstrates the utilization of wavelet-based tools for the analysis and prediction of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence (LRD). Commonly emerging markets' stock returns are characterized by LRD. Therefore, we track the LRD evolvement for the return series of six Southeast European stock indices through the application of a wavelet-based semi-parametric method. We further engage the á trous wavelet transform in order to extract deeper knowledge on the returns term structure and utilize it for prediction purposes. In particular, a multiscale autoregressive (MAR) model is fitted and its out-of-sample forecast performance is benchmarked to that of ARMA. Additionally, a data-driven MAR feature selection procedure is outlined. We find that the wavelet-based method captures adequately LRD dynamics both in calm as well as in turmoil periods detecting the presence of transitional changes. At the same time, the MAR model handles with the complicated autocorrelation structure implied by the LRD in a parsimonious way achieving better performance.     

A Bayesian wavelet approach to estimation of a change-point in a nonlinear multivariate time series

ABSTRACT

We propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the existence and location of a statistical change-point to a nonlinear multivariate time series contaminated with an additive noise component. In particular, we consider a p-dimensional stochastic process of independent multivariate normal observations where the mean function varies smoothly except at a single change-point. Our approach involves conducting a Bayesian analysis on the empirical detail coefficients of the original time series after a wavelet transform. If the mean function of our time series can be expressed as a multivariate step function, we find our Bayesian-wavelet method performs comparably with classical parametric methods such as maximum likelihood estimation. The advantage of our multivariate change-point method is seen in how it applies to a much larger class of mean functions that require only general smoothness conditions.     

Undercoverage of Wavelet-Based Resampling Confidence Intervals

The decorrelating property of the discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) appears valuable because one can avoid estimating the correlation structure in the original data space by bootstrap resampling of the DWT. Several authors have shown that the wavestrap approximately retains the correlation structure of observations. However, simply retaining the same correlation structure of original observations does not guarantee enough variation for regression parameter estimators. Our simulation studies show that these wavestraps yield undercoverage of parameters for a simple linear regression for time series data of the type that arise in functional MRI experiments. It is disappointing that the wavestrap does not even provide valid resamples for both white noise sequences and fractional Brownian noise sequences. Thus, the wavestrap method is not completely valid in obtaining resamples related to linear regression analysis and should be used with caution for hypothesis testing as well. The reasons for these undercoverages are also discussed. A parametric bootstrap resampling in the wavelet domain is introduced to offer insight into these previously undiscovered defects in wavestrapping.     

Wavelet and short-time Fourier transform comparison-based analysis of myoelectric signals

In this investigation, extracted features ofsignals have been analyzed for the recognition of arm movements. Short-time Fourier transform and wavelet transform based on Euclidian distance were applied to reordered signals. Results show that wavelet is a more useful and powerful tool for analyzing signals, since it shows multiresolution property with a significant reduction in the computation time for eliminating resolution problems. Finally, a statistical technique of repeated factorial analysis of variance for experimental recorded data was implemented in a way to investigate the effect of class separability for multiple motions for establishing surface electromyogram–muscular force relationship.     

基于小波协方差的中国股市波动序列相关性的实证分析

在介绍概率变化协调的相关性度量方法的同时,证明了该方法是传统方法的推广。又依据小波协方差在不同尺度下的分解理论,提出了基于小波协方差的相关性度量方法,并对沪深股市波动序列之间的相关性进行了实证分析。结果表明：沪深股市波动序列在整体上具有正相关性,但在不同尺度下沪深股市波动序列之间的相关性不同,小尺度下相关性小。对投资者而言,最好以小尺度为基准选择分散投资策略。     

Image processing through multiscale analysis and measurement noise modeling

We describe a range of powerful multiscale analysis methods. We also focus on the pivotal issue of measurement noise in the physical sciences. From multiscale analysis and noise modeling, we develop a comprehensive methodology for data analysis of 2D images, 1D signals (or spectra), and point pattern data. Noise modeling is based on the following: (i) multiscale transforms, including wavelet transforms; (ii) a data structure termed the multiresolution support; and (iii) multiple scale significance testing. The latter two aspects serve to characterize signal with respect to noise. The data analysis objectives we deal with include noise filtering and scale decomposition for visualization or feature detection.     

Monitoring Change in Persistence Against the Null of Difference-Stationarity in Infinite Variance Observations

In this article, we propose a moving kernel-weighted variance ratio statistic to monitor persistence change in infinite variance observations. We focus on I(1) to I(0) persistence change for sequences in the domain of attraction of a stable law and local-to-finite variance sequences. The null distribution of the monitoring statistic and its consistency are proved. In particular, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to determine the critical values for the derived asymptotic distribution depends on unknown tail index. The small sample performances of proposed monitoring procedure are illustrated by both simulation and application to a high frequency financial data.     

Semi-supervised Bayesian adaptive multiresolution shrinkage for wavelet-based denoising

We can use wavelet shrinkage to estimate a possibly multivariate regression function g under the general regression setup, y = g + ε. We propose an enhanced wavelet-based denoising methodology based on Bayesian adaptive multiresolution shrinkage, an effective Bayesian shrinkage rule in addition to the semi-supervised learning mechanism. The Bayesian shrinkage rule is advanced by utilizing the semi-supervised learning method in which the neighboring structure of a wavelet coefficient is adopted and an appropriate decision function is derived. According to decision function, wavelet coefficients follow one of two prespecified Bayesian rules obtained using varying related parameters. The decision of a wavelet coefficient depends not only on its magnitude, but also on the neighboring structure on which the coefficient is located. We discuss the theoretical properties of the suggested method and provide recommended parameter settings. We show that the proposed method is often superior to several existing wavelet denoising methods through extensive experimentation.     

Testing for additivity and joint effects in multivariate nonparametric regression using Fourier and wavelet methods

We consider the problem of testing for additivity and joint effects in multivariate nonparametric regression when the data are modelled as observations of an unknown response function observed on a d-dimensional (d 2) lattice and contaminated with additive Gaussian noise. We propose tests for additivity and joint effects, appropriate for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous response functions, using the particular structure of the data expanded in tensor product Fourier or wavelet bases studied recently by Amato and Antoniadis (2001) and Amato, Antoniadis and De Feis (2002). The corresponding tests are constructed by applying the adaptive Neyman truncation and wavelet thresholding procedures of Fan (1996), for testing a high-dimensional Gaussian mean, to the resulting empirical Fourier and wavelet coefficients. As a consequence, asymptotic normality of the proposed test statistics under the null hypothesis and lower bounds of the corresponding powers under a specific alternative are derived. We use several simulated examples to illustrate the performance of the proposed tests, and we make comparisons with other tests available in the literature.     

Estimation of Time-Varying Long Memory Parameter Using Wavelet Method

Stationary long memory processes have been extensively studied over the past decades. When we deal with financial, economic, or environmental data, seasonality and time-varying long-range dependence can often be observed and thus some kind of non-stationarity exists. To take into account this phenomenon, we propose a new class of stochastic processes: locally stationary k-factor Gegenbauer process. We present a procedure to estimate consistently the time-varying parameters by applying discrete wavelet packet transform. The robustness of the algorithm is investigated through a simulation study. And we apply our methods on Nikkei Stock Average 225 (NSA 225) index series.     

Non-parametric Curve Estimation by Wavelet Thresholding with Locally Stationary Errors

An important aspect in the modelling of biological phenomena in living organisms, whether the measurements are of blood pressure, enzyme levels, biomechanical movements or heartbeats, etc., is time variation in the data. Thus, the recovery of a 'smooth' regression or trend function from noisy time-varying sampled data becomes a problem of particular interest. Here we use non-linear wavelet thresholding to estimate a regression or a trend function in the presence of additive noise which, in contrast to most existing models, does not need to be stationary. (Here, non-stationarity means that the spectral behaviour of the noise is allowed to change slowly over time). We develop a procedure to adapt existing threshold rules to such situations, e.g. that of a time-varying variance in the errors. Moreover, in the model of curve estimation for functions belonging to a Besov class with locally stationary errors, we derive a near-optimal rate for the -risk between the unknown function and our soft or hard threshold estimator, which holds in the general case of an error distribution with bounded cumulants. In the case of Gaussian errors, a lower bound on the asymptotic minimax rate in the wavelet coefficient domain is also obtained. Also it is argued that a stronger adaptivity result is possible by the use of a particular location and level dependent threshold obtained by minimizing Stein's unbiased estimate of the risk. In this respect, our work generalizes previous results, which cover the situation of correlated, but stationary errors. A natural application of our approach is the estimation of the trend function of non-stationary time series under the model of local stationarity. The method is illustrated on both an interesting simulated example and a biostatistical data-set, measurements of sheep luteinizing hormone, which exhibits a clear non-stationarity in its variance.     

A Scale-space Approach for Detecting Non-stationarities in Time Series

Abstract.  The presented method called Significant Non-stationarities, represents an exploratory tool for identifying significant changes in the mean, the variance, and the first-lag autocorrelation coefficient of a time series. The changes are detected on different time scales. The statistical inference for each scale is based on accurate approximation of the probability distribution, using test statistics being ratios of quadratic forms. No assumptions concerning the autocovariance function of the time series are made as the dependence structure is estimated non-parametrically. The results of the analyses are summarized in significance maps showing at which time points and on which time scales significant changes in the parameters occur. The performance of the given method is thoroughly studied by simulations in terms of observed significance level and power. Several examples, including a real temperature data set, are studied. The examples illustrate that it is important to carry out the analysis on several time horizons.     

上海股票市场的基于小波去噪的混沌性检验

由于经济混沌需要大样本、低噪声的时间序列,所以文章首先利用小波变换对上证指数日收盘价序列进行去噪处理,然后由去噪后的日收盘价序列计算出日收益率序列,姑且称其为去噪后的日收益率序列,并把它同未经过去噪处理得到的日收益率序列进行比较,发现该方法较好地保留了序列自身固有的特性,只是剔除了由于日常细微波动产生的噪声,为有效地探测我国上海证券市场的混沌性打下了基础。最后分别计算去噪前后收益率的关联维数和Lyapunov指数,发现小波去噪并未改变上海证券市场的混沌性,但是去噪后的市场的复杂度要小于去噪前的市场的复杂度。所以进行混沌性探测的时候必须对数据进行去噪处理。     

On- and offline detection of structural breaks in thermal spraying processes

We investigate and develop methods for structural break detection, considering time series from thermal spraying process monitoring. Since engineers induce technical malfunctions during the processes, the time series exhibit structural breaks at known time points, giving us valuable information to conduct the investigations. First, we consider a recently developed robust online (also real-time) filtering (i.e. smoothing) procedure that comprises a test for local linearity. This test rejects when jumps and trend changes are present, so that it can also be useful to detect such structural breaks online. Second, based on the filtering procedure we develop a robust method for the online detection of ongoing trends. We investigate these two methods as to the online detection of structural breaks by simulations and applications to the time series from the manipulated spraying processes. Third, we consider a recently developed fluctuation test for constant variances that can be applied offline, i.e. after the whole time series has been observed, to control the spraying results. Since this test is not reliable when jumps are present in the time series, we suggest data transformation based on filtering and demonstrate that this transformation makes the test applicable.     

Detection and Estimation of Jump Points in Non parametric Regression Function with AR(1) Noise

In this paper, we propose a method based on wavelet analysis to detect and estimate jump points in non parametric regression function. This method is applied to AR(1) noise process under random design. First, the test statistics are constructed on the empirical wavelet coefficients. Then, under the null hypothesis, the critical values of test statistics are obtained. Under the alternative, the consistency of the test is proved. Afterward, the rate of convergence, the estimators of the number, and locations of change points are given theoretically. Finally, the excellent performance of our method is demonstrated through simulations using artificial and real datasets.     

Multivariate Bayes Wavelet shrinkage and applications

In recent years, wavelet shrinkage has become a very appealing method for data de-noising and density function estimation. In particular, Bayesian modelling via hierarchical priors has introduced novel approaches for Wavelet analysis that had become very popular, and are very competitive with standard hard or soft thresholding rules. In this sense, this paper proposes a hierarchical prior that is elicited on the model parameters describing the wavelet coefficients after applying a Discrete Wavelet Transformation (DWT). In difference to other approaches, the prior proposes a multivariate Normal distribution with a covariance matrix that allows for correlations among Wavelet coefficients corresponding to the same level of detail. In addition, an extra scale parameter is incorporated that permits an additional shrinkage level over the coefficients. The posterior distribution for this shrinkage procedure is not available in closed form but it is easily sampled through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Applications on a set of test signals and two noisy signals are presented.     

Linear and nonlinear causality tests in an LSTAR model: wavelet decomposition in a nonlinear environment

In this paper, we use simulated data to investigate the power of different causality tests in a two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The data are presented in a nonlinear environment that is modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive function. We use both linear and nonlinear causality tests to investigate the unidirection causality relationship and compare the power of these tests. The linear test is the commonly used Granger causality F test. The nonlinear test is a non-parametric test based on Baek and Brock [A general test for non-linear Granger causality: Bivariate model. Tech. Rep., Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 1992] and Hiemstra and Jones [Testing for linear and non-linear Granger causality in the stock price–volume relation, J. Finance 49(5) (1994), pp. 1639–1664]. When implementing the nonlinear test, we use separately the original data, the linear VAR filtered residuals, and the wavelet decomposed series based on wavelet multiresolution analysis. The VAR filtered residuals and the wavelet decomposition series are used to extract the nonlinear structure of the original data. The simulation results show that the non-parametric test based on the wavelet decomposition series (which is a model-free approach) has the highest power to explore the causality relationship in nonlinear models.     

Causal structure among US corn futures and regional cash prices in the time and frequency domain

This study investigates causal structure among daily Chicago Board of Trade corn futures prices and seven regional cash series from Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Kansas for January 2006–March 2011. Their wavelet transformed series are further analyzed for causal relationships at different time scales. Empirical results indicate no causality among states or between the futures and a cash series for time scales shorter than one month. As scales increase but do not exceed a year, bidirectional causal flows are determined among all prices. The information leadership role of the futures against a cash price is identified for the scale longer than one year and raw series, at which no interstate causality is found.