Exact likelihood inference based on an unified hybrid censored sample from the exponential distribution

Recently, exact confidence bounds and exact likelihood inference have been developed based on hybrid censored samples by Chen and Bhattacharyya [Chen, S. and Bhattacharyya, G.K. (1998). Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 17, 1857–1870.], Childs et al. [Childs, A., Chandrasekar, B., Balakrishnan, N. and Kundu, D. (2003). Exact likelihood inference based on Type-I and Type-II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 55, 319–330.], and Chandrasekar et al. [Chandrasekar, B., Childs, A. and Balakrishnan, N. (2004). Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type-I and Type-II hybrid censoring. Naval Research Logistics, 51, 994–1004.] for the case of the exponential distribution. In this article, we propose an unified hybrid censoring scheme (HCS) which includes many cases considered earlier as special cases. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under this general unified HCS. Finally, we present some examples to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

Improving dispersion tests by symmetrization

Comparing the variances of several independent samples is a classic problem and many tests have been proposed in the literature. Conover et al. [Conover, W.J., Johnson, M.E. and Johnson, M.M., 1981, A comparative study of tests for homogeneity of variances with applications to the outer continental self bidding data. Technometrics, 23, 351–361.] and Shoemaker [Shoemaker, L.H., 1995, Tests for difference in dispersion based on quantiles. The American Statistician, 49 (2), 179–182.] find that the existing tests lack power for skewed sampling distributions. To address this problem, we studied the effect of an a priori symmetrization of the data on the performance of tests for homogeneity of variances. This article also updates the comprehensive comparative study of Conover et al.     

Inference in segmented line regression: a simulation study

A segmented line regression model has been used to describe changes in cancer incidence and mortality trends [Kim, H.-J., Fay, M.P., Feuer, E.J. and Midthune, D.N., 2000, Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Statistics in Medicine, 19, 335–351. Kim, H.-J., Fay, M.P., Yu, B., Barrett., M.J. and Feuer, E.J., 2004, Comparability of segmented line regression models. Biometrics, 60, 1005–1014.]. The least squares fit can be obtained by using either the grid search method proposed by Lerman [Lerman, P.M., 1980, Fitting segmented regression models by grid search. Applied Statistics, 29, 77–84.] which is implemented in Joinpoint 3.0 available at http://srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/index.html, or by using the continuous fitting algorithm proposed by Hudson [Hudson, D.J., 1966, Fitting segmented curves whose join points have to be estimated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61, 1097–1129.] which will be implemented in the next version of Joinpoint software. Following the least squares fitting of the model, inference on the parameters can be pursued by using the asymptotic results of Hinkley [Hinkley, D.V., 1971, Inference in two-phase regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 736–743.] and Feder [Feder, P.I., 1975a, On asymptotic distribution theory in segmented regression Problems-Identified Case. The Annals of Statistics, 3, 49–83.] Feder [Feder, P.I., 1975b, The log likelihood ratio in segmented regression. The Annals of Statistics, 3, 84–97.] Via simulations, this paper empirically examines small sample behavior of these asymptotic results, studies how the two fitting methods, the grid search and the Hudson's algorithm affect these inferential procedures, and also assesses the robustness of the asymptotic inferential procedures.     

Improved likelihood inference for the shape parameter in Weibull regression

We obtain adjustments to the profile likelihood function in Weibull regression models with and without censoring. Specifically, we consider two different modified profile likelihoods: (i) the one proposed by Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R. and Reid, N., 1987, Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 49, 1–39.], and (ii) an approximation to the one proposed by Barndorff–Nielsen [Barndorff–Nielsen, O.E., 1983, On a formula for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Biometrika, 70, 343–365.], the approximation having been obtained using the results by Fraser and Reid [Fraser, D.A.S. and Reid, N., 1995, Ancillaries and third-order significance. Utilitas Mathematica, 47, 33–53.] and by Fraser et al. [Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. and Wu, J., 1999, A simple formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference. Biometrika, 86, 655–661.]. We focus on point estimation and likelihood ratio tests on the shape parameter in the class of Weibull regression models. We derive some distributional properties of the different maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests. The numerical evidence presented in the paper favors the approximation to Barndorff–Nielsen's adjustment.     

Nonparametric estimation of extreme conditional quantiles

The estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is an important issue in different scientific disciplines. Up to now, the extreme value literature focused mainly on estimation procedures based on independent and identically distributed samples. Our contribution is a two-step procedure for estimating extreme conditional quantiles. In a first step nonextreme conditional quantiles are estimated nonparametrically using a local version of [Koenker, R. and Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33–50.] regression quantile methodology. Next, these nonparametric quantile estimates are used as analogues of univariate order statistics in procedures for extreme quantile estimation. The performance of the method is evaluated for both heavy tailed distributions and distributions with a finite right endpoint using a small sample simulation study. A bootstrap procedure is developed to guide in the selection of an optimal local bandwidth. Finally the procedure is illustrated in two case studies.     

Non-central bivariate beta distribution

Let U, V and W be independent random variables, U and V having a gamma distribution with respective shape parameters a and b, and W having a non-central gamma distribution with shape and non-centrality parameters c and δ, respectively. Define X = U/(U + W) and Y = V/(V + W). Clearly, X and Y are correlated each having a non-central beta type 1 distribution, X ~ NCB1 (a,c;d){X \sim {\rm NCB1} (a,c;\delta)} and Y ~ NCB1 (b,c;d){Y \sim {\rm NCB1} (b,c;\delta)} . In this article we derive the joint probability density function of X and Y and study its properties.     

On tests of symmetry,marginal homogeneity and quasi-symmetry in two-way contingency tables based on minimum φ-divergence estimator with constraints

The restricted minimum φ-divergence estimator, [Pardo, J.A., Pardo, L. and Zografos, K., 2002, Minimum φ-divergence estimators with constraints in multinomial populations. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 104, 221–237], is employed to obtain estimates of the cell frequencies of an I×I contingency table under hypotheses of symmetry, marginal homogeneity or quasi-symmetry. The associated φ-divergence statistics are distributed asymptotically as chi-squared distributions under the null hypothesis. The new estimators and test statistics contain, as particular cases, the classical estimators and test statistics previously presented in the literature for the cited problems. A simulation study is presented, for the symmetry problem, to choose the best function φ₂ for estimation and the best function φ₁ for testing.     

On approximating the central and noncentral multivariate gamma distributions

In this paper a finite series approximation involving Laguerre polynomials is derived for central and noncentral multivariate gamma distributions. It is shown that if one approximates the density of any k nonnegative continuous random variables by a finite series of Laguerre polynomials up to the (n₁, …, n_k)th degree, then all the mixed moments up to the order (n₁, …, n_k) of the approximated distribution equal to the mixed moments up to the same order of the random variables. Some numerical results are given for the bivariate central and noncentral multivariate gamma distributions to indicate the usefulness of the approximations.     

Geometric characterization of planar regression

The geometric characterization of linear regression in terms of the ‘concentration ellipse’ by Galton [Galton, F., 1886, Family likeness in stature (with Appendix by Dickson, J.D.H.). Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 40, 42–73.] and Pearson [Pearson, K., 1901, On lines and planes of closest fit to systems of points in space. Philosophical Magazine, 2, 559–572.] was extended to the case of unequal variances of the presumably uncorrelated errors in the experimental data [McCartin, B.J., 2003, A geometric characterization of linear regression. Statistics, 37(2), 101–117.]. In this paper, this geometric characterization is further extended to planar (and also linear) regression in three dimensions where a beautiful interpretation in terms of the concentration ellipsoid is developed.     

On the estimation of extreme directional multivariate quantiles

Abstract

In multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT), the focus is on analysis outside of the observable sampling zone, which implies that the region of interest is associated to high risk levels. This work provides tools to include directional notions into the MEVT, giving the opportunity to characterize the recently introduced directional multivariate quantiles (DMQ) at high levels. Then, an out-sample estimation method for these quantiles is given. A bootstrap procedure carries out the estimation of the tuning parameter in this multivariate framework and helps with the estimation of the DMQ. Asymptotic normality for the proposed estimator is provided and the methodology is illustrated with simulated data-sets. Finally, a real-life application to a financial case is also performed.     

A low-end quantile estimator from a right-skewed distribution

ABSTRACT

In many statistical applications estimation of population quantiles is desired. In this study, a log–flip–robust (LFR) approach is proposed to estimate, specifically, lower-end quantiles (those below the median) from a continuous, positive, right-skewed distribution. Characteristics of common right-skewed distributions suggest that a logarithm transformation (L) followed by flipping the lower half of the sample (F) allows for the estimation of the lower-end quantile using robust methods (R) based on symmetric populations. Simulations show that this approach is superior in many cases to current methods, while not suffering from the sample size restrictions of other approaches.     

On the distribution of quotient of random variables conditioned to the positive quadrant

Abstract

Motivated by Caginalp and Caginalp [Physica A—Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 499, 2018, 457–471], we derive the exact distribution of X/Y conditioned on X?>?0, Y?>?0 for more than ten classes of distributions, including the bivariate t, bivariate Cauchy, bivariate Lomax, Arnold and Strauss’ bivariate exponential, Balakrishna and Shiji’s bivariate exponential, Mohsin et al.’s bivariate exponential, Morgenstern type bivariate exponential, bivariate gamma exponential and bivariate alpha skew normal distributions. The results can be useful in finance and other areas.     

Bayes and Empirical Bayes Inference in Changepoint Problems

ABSTRACT

In the case of the random design nonparametric regression, the double smoothing technique is applied to estimate the multivariate regression function. The proposed estimator has desirable properties in both the finite sample and the asymptotic cases. In the finite sample case, it has bounded conditional (and unconditional) bias and variance. On the other hand, in the asymptotic case, it has the same mean square error as the local linear estimator in Fan (Design-Adaptive Nonparametric Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1992, 87, 998–1004; Local Linear Regression Smoothers and Their Minimax Efficiencies. Annals of Statistics 1993, 21, 196–216). Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator is better than the local linear estimator, because it has a smaller sample mean integrated square error and gives smoother estimates.     

D-optimal designs for covariate models

The problem of finding D-optimal or D-efficient designs in the presence of covariates is considered under a completely randomized design set-up with v treatments, k covariates and N experimental units. In contrast to Lopes Troya [Lopes Troya, J., 1982, Optimal designs for covariates models. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 6, 373–419.], who considered this problem in the equireplicate case, we do not assume that N/v is an integer, and this allows us to study situations where no equireplicate design exists. Even when N/v is an integer, it is seen quite counter-intuitively that there are situations where a non-equireplicate design outperforms the best equireplicate design under the D-criterion.     

Run rules based phase II c and np charts when process parameters are unknown

Abstract

The performance of attributes control charts is usually evaluated under the assumption of known process parameters (i.e., the nominal proportion of non conforming units or the nominal average number of nonconformities). However, in practice, these process parameters are rarely known and have to be estimated from an in-control Phase I data set. The major contributions of this paper are (a) the derivation of the run length properties of the Run Rules Phase II c and np charts with estimated parameters, particularly focusing on the ARL, SDRL, and 0.05, 0.5, and 0.95 quantiles of the run length distribution; (b) the investigation of the number m of Phase I samples that is needed by these charts in order to obtain similar in-control ARLs to the known parameters case; and (c) the proposition of new specific chart parameters that allow these charts to have approximately the same in-control ARLs as the ones obtained in the known parameters case.     

Choosing a robustness tuning parameter

A novel method is proposed for choosing the tuning parameter associated with a family of robust estimators. It consists of minimising estimated mean squared error, an approach that requires pilot estimation of model parameters. The method is explored for the family of minimum distance estimators proposed by [Basu, A., Harris, I.R., Hjort, N.L. and Jones, M.C., 1998, Robust and efficient estimation by minimising a density power divergence. Biometrika, 85, 549–559.] Our preference in that context is for a version of the method using the L ₂ distance estimator [Scott, D.W., 2001, Parametric statistical modeling by minimum integrated squared error. Technometrics, 43, 274–285.] as pilot estimator.     

Testing linear hypotheses in high-dimensional regressions

For a multivariate linear model, Wilk's likelihood ratio test (LRT) constitutes one of the cornerstone tools. However, the computation of its quantiles under the null or the alternative hypothesis requires complex analytic approximations, and more importantly, these distributional approximations are feasible only for moderate dimension of the dependent variable, say p≤20. On the other hand, assuming that the data dimension p as well as the number q of regression variables are fixed while the sample size n grows, several asymptotic approximations are proposed in the literature for Wilk's Λ including the widely used chi-square approximation. In this paper, we consider necessary modifications to Wilk's test in a high-dimensional context, specifically assuming a high data dimension p and a large sample size n. Based on recent random matrix theory, the correction we propose to Wilk's test is asymptotically Gaussian under the null hypothesis and simulations demonstrate that the corrected LRT has very satisfactory size and power, surely in the large p and large n context, but also for moderately large data dimensions such as p=30 or p=50. As a byproduct, we give a reason explaining why the standard chi-square approximation fails for high-dimensional data. We also introduce a new procedure for the classical multiple sample significance test in multivariate analysis of variance which is valid for high-dimensional data.     

Approximations to noncentral distributions

Two methods for approximating the distribution of a noncentral random variable by a central distribution in the same family are presented. The first consists of relating a stochastic expansion of a random variable to a corresponding asymptotic expansion for its distribution function. The second approximates the cumulant generating function and is used to provide central χ² and gamma approximations to the noncentral χ² and gamma distributions.     

ROBUST TESTS BASED ON THE SAMPLE CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTION

A new method is described for robust analysis of variance in the balanced fixed effects case. The method uses the empirical characteristic function of the treatment samples, and has an interpretation in terms of S-estimators. The test statistic, under the null hypothesis, asymptotically follows a central chi-square distribution, and under contiguous alternatives a noncentral chi-square distribution. A Monte Carlo study suggests that, for finite samples, this is reasonably well approximated by the usual F distribution used in analysis of variance. The test statistic has a bounded influence function. The new procedure competes well with Huber's and a Wald-type procedure except in very heavy-tailed cases.     

A Higher Order Approximation to a Percentage Point of the Distribution of a Noncentral t-Statistic Without the Normality Assumption

Noncentral distributions appear in two sample problems and are often used in several fields, for example, in biostatistics. A higher order approximation for a percentage point of the noncentral t-distribution under normality is given by Akahira (1995 Akahira, M. 1995. A higher order approximation to a percentage point of the non-central t-distribution. Communications in Statistics–Simulation, 24(3): 595–605. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and is also shown to be numerically better than others. In this article, without the normality assumption, we obtain a higher order approximation to a percentage point of the distribution of a noncentral t-statistic, in a similar way to Akahira (1995 Akahira, M. 1995. A higher order approximation to a percentage point of the non-central t-distribution. Communications in Statistics–Simulation, 24(3): 595–605. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) where the statistic based on a linear combination of a normal random variable and a chi-statistic takes an important role. Its application to the confidence limit and the confidence interval for a noncentrality parameter are also given. Further, a numerical comparison of the higher order approximation with the limiting normal distribution is done and the former one is shown to be more accurate. As a result of the numerical calculation, the higher order approximation seems to be useful in practical situations, when the size of sample is not so small.