On Generalized Binomial and Negative Binomial Distributions for Dependent Bernoulli Variables

We study the distributions of the random variables S_n and V_r related to a sequence of dependent Bernoulli variables, where S_n denotes the number of successes in n trials and V_r the number of trials necessary to obtain r successes. The purpose of this article is twofold: (1) Generalizing some results on the “nature” of the binomial and negative binomial distributions we show that S_n and V_r can follow any prescribed discrete distribution. The corresponding joint distributions of the Bernoulli variables are characterized as the solutions of systems of linear equations. (2) We consider a specific type of dependence of the Bernoulli variables, where the probability of a success depends only on the number of previous successes. We develop some theory based on new closed-form representations for the probability mass functions of S_n and V_r which enable direct computations of the probabilities.     

On binomial and circular binomial distributions of orderk forl-overlapping success runs of lengthk

The number ofl-overlapping success runs of lengthk inn trials, which was introduced and studied recently, is presently reconsidered in the Bernoulli case and two exact formulas are derived for its probability distribution function in terms of multinomial and binomial coefficients respectively. A recurrence relation concerning this distribution, as well as its mean, is also obtained. Furthermore, the number ofl-overlapping success runs of lengthk inn Bernoulli trials arranged on a circle is presently considered for the first time and its probability distribution function and mean are derived. Finally, the latter distribution is related to the first, two open problems regarding limiting distributions are stated, and numerical illustrations are given in two tables. All results are new and they unify and extend several results of various authors on binomial and circular binomial distributions of orderk.     

On using non identical and independent Bernoulli trials in human surveys

Unlike the usual randomized response techniques, as a pioneering attempt, this article focuses on using non identical independent Bernoulli trials in sensitive surveys. For this purpose, a general class of randomized response techniques is considered. The usual randomized response techniques are based on a fixed probability of having a yes answer. Contrary to usual techniques, in the proposed technique every respondent has a different probability of reporting a yes answer. With this setting, in most of the situations, the proposed technique is observed performing better in terms of variability. To illustrate and support the superiority of the proposed technique it is compared with models such as Warner (1965), Greenberg et al. (1969), Mangat and Singh (1990), and Mangat (1994) using identical Bernoulli trials. Relative efficiency and privacy protection are studied in detail using Warner (1965) and Mangat (1994) models.     

Mean success run length

In this paper we consider mean of success run lengths appearing in a sequence of binary trials. We derive the exact and limiting distributions of mean success run length for i.i.d. Bernoulli trials. The exact distribution of the corresponding random variable is also derived for a sequence of Markov-dependent Bernoulli trials. In addition, a combinatorial formula for the distribution of any success run statistic defined on Markov-dependent trials is presented.     

The search for submarine pingos in the Beaufort Sea: An unusual application of the binomial distribution

Almost all statistical estimation problems involving the binomial distribution occur with the number of independent Bernoulli trials, n, being a known parameter and the probability of success, p, being unknown. Applications in which n is unknown and p is known are extremely rare. One such application to a real problem in the physical sciences is the subject of this note.     

A Simple Distribution for the Sum of Correlated,Exchangeable Binary Data

This article describes a generalization of the binomial distribution. The closed form probability function for the probability of k successes out of n correlated, exchangeable Bernoulli trials depends on the number of trials and its two parameters: the common success probability and the common correlation. The distribution is derived under the assumption that the common correlation between all pairs of Bernoulli trials remains unchanged conditional on successes in all completed trials. The distribution was developed to model bond defaults but may be suited to biostatistical applications involving clusters of binary data encountered in repeated measurements or toxicity studies of families of organisms. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of the distribution are found for a set of binary data from a developmental toxicity study on litters of mice.     

Adaptive Percolation Using Subjective Likelihoods

A phenomenon that I call “adaptive percolation” commonly arises in biology, business, economics, defense, finance, manufacturing, and the social sciences. Here one wishes to select a handful of entities from a large pool of entities via a process of screening through a hierarchy of sieves. The process is not unlike the percolation of a liquid through a porous medium. The probability model developed here is based on a nested and adaptive Bayesian approach that results in the product of beta-binomial distributions with common parameters. The common parameters happen to be the observed data. I call this the percolated beta-binomial distribution . The model turns out to be a slight generalization of the probabilistic model used in percolation theory. The generalization is a consequence of using a subjectively specified likelihood function to construct a probability model. The notion of using likelihoods for constructing probability models is not a part of the conventional toolkit of applied probabilists. To the best of my knowledge, a use of the product of beta-binomial distributions as a probability model for Bernoulli trials appears to be new. The development of the material of this article is illustrated via data from the 2009 astronaut selection program, which motivated this work.     

Bayes procedures for detecting a shift in the probability of success in a series of Bernoulli trials

The determination of a stopping rule for the detection of the time of an increase in the success probability of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials is discussed. Both success probabilities are assumed unknown. A Bayesian approach is applied; the distribution of the location of the shift in the success probability is assumed geometric and the success probabilities are assumed to have known joint prior distribution. The costs involved are penalties for late or early stoppings. The nature of the optimal dynamic programming solution is discussed and a procedure for obtaining a suboptimal stopping rule is determined. The results indicate that the detection procedure is quite effective.     

ON THE SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS

Let x₁ x₂, x₃,be a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with common success probability p . We consider the problem of estimation of p using a sequential Bayes theoretic approach when the cost per observation is c , and the loss of estimation is squared error loss. A heuristic procedure is suggested, a bound on its Bayes risk is computed, and asymptotic results are exhibited.     

AN ALTERNATIVE PARAMETRIC APPROACH FOR DISCRETE MISSING DATA PROBLEMS

We propose an iterative method of estimation for discrete missing data problems that is conceptually different from the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm and that does not in general yield the observed data maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). The proposed approach is based conceptually upon weighting the set of possible complete-data MLEs. Its implementation avoids the expectation step of EM, which can sometimes be problematic. In the simple case of Bernoulli trials missing completely at random, the iterations of the proposed algorithm are equivalent to the EM iterations. For a familiar genetics-oriented multinomial problem with missing count data and for the motivating example with epidemiologic applications that involves a mixture of a left censored normal distribution with a point mass at zero, we investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator and find it to be competitive with that of the MLE. We give some intuitive justification for the method, and we explore an interesting connection between our algorithm and multiple imputation in order to suggest an approach for estimating standard errors.     

On a Simultaneous Characterization of the Poisson and Bernoulli Distributions

Kimeldorf et al. (1981) established a simultaneous characterization of the Poisson and Bernoulli distributions. In this note two variants of the authors' characterizing condition are considered each of which is shown also to characterize simultaneously the Poisson and Bernoulli distributions.     

Optimal sequential estimation procedures of a function of a probability of success under LINEX loss

In this paper, we investigate the problem of estimating a function g(p), where p is the probability of success in a sequential sample of independent identically Bernoulli distributed random variables. As a loss associated with estimation we introduce a generalized LINEX loss function. We construct a sequential procedure possessing some asymptotically optimal properties in the case when p tends to zero. In this approach to the problem, the conditions are given, under which the stopping time is asymptotically efficient and normal, and the corresponding sequential estimator is asymptotically normal. The procedure constructed guarantees that its sequential risk is asymptotically equal to a prescribed constant.     

A Generalized Chain Binomial Model with Aggregated Data

In large cohort studies it can be impractical to report individual data that only summary or aggregated data are available. Using aggregated data from Bernoulli trials is expected to result in overdispersion so that a quasi-binomial approach would seem feasible. We show that when applied to aggregated data arising from cohorts of individuals according to a chain binomial model, the quasi-binomial model results in biased estimates. We propose an alternate calibration estimator and demonstrate its improved performance by simulations. The calibration method is then applied to model the probability of leaving a personal emergency link service in Hong Kong.     

On the distribution and expectation of success runs in nonhomogeneous Markov dependent trials

The number of success runs for nonhomogeneous markov dependent trials are represented as the sum of Bernoulli trials and the expected value of runs are obtained by using this representation. The distribution and bounds for the distribution of the longest run are derived for markov dependent trials.     

Identifying treatment effects using trimmed means when data are missing not at random

Patients often discontinue from a clinical trial because their health condition is not improving or they cannot tolerate the assigned treatment. Consequently, the observed clinical outcomes in the trial are likely better on average than if every patient had completed the trial. If these differences between trial completers and non-completers cannot be explained by the observed data, then the study outcomes are missing not at random (MNAR). One way to overcome this problem—the trimmed means approach for missing data due to study discontinuation—sets missing values as the worst observed outcome and then trims away a fraction of the distribution from each treatment arm before calculating differences in treatment efficacy (Permutt T, Li F. Trimmed means for symptom trials with dropouts. Pharm Stat. 2017;16(1):20–28). In this paper, we derive sufficient and necessary conditions for when this approach can identify the average population treatment effect. Simulation studies show the trimmed means approach's ability to effectively estimate treatment efficacy when data are MNAR and missingness due to study discontinuation is strongly associated with an unfavorable outcome, but trimmed means fail when data are missing at random. If the reasons for study discontinuation in a clinical trial are known, analysts can improve estimates with a combination of multiple imputation and the trimmed means approach when the assumptions of each hold. We compare the methodology to existing approaches using data from a clinical trial for chronic pain. An R package trim implements the method. When the assumptions are justifiable, using trimmed means can help identify treatment effects notwithstanding MNAR data.     

On the Evaluation of the Kolmogorov Statistic

At least two computer program packages, SPSS and STRATA, use simulated Bernoulli trials to draw (without replacement) a random sample of records from a finite population of records. Therefore, the size of the sample is a random variable. Two estimators of a population total under this sampling procedure are compared with the usual estimator under simple random sampling. Conditions under which the Bernoulli sampling estimators have almost the same mean squared error as the simple random-sample estimator are illustrated.     

An application of the Bernoulli part to local limit theorems for moving averages on stationary sequences

We consider partial sums S_n of a general class of stationary sequences of integer-valued random variables, and we provide sufficient conditions for S_n to satisfy a local limit theorem. To prove this result, we introduce a concept called the Bernoulli part. The amount of Bernoulli part in S_n determines the extent to which the density of S_n is relatively flat. If in addition S_n satisfies a global central limit theorem, the local limit theorem follows.     

A Bayesian analysis of tree-structured statistical decision problems

This paper concerns the Bayesian analysis of statistical experiments having tree-like structures made up of sequences of independent subexperiments or trials. Members of this class of problems are treated as compound Bernoulli experiments constructed of linear sequences of independent generalized Bernoulli trials having unknown outcome probabilities. Replication instances of these experiments are assumed to follow a multinomial-like sampling scheme capable of generating complete and/or partial observations. From the viewpoint of the theory of statistical distributions, the preposterior analysis of this class of experiments yields a new family of discrete multivariate distributions — the hyper-compound multinomial distribution. The properties of this family of distributions are presented as well as an illustrative numerical example concerning a Bayesian analysis of a simple tree-structured decision model for a 30-day medical prognosis, i.e., either early death or survival, for patients who have suffered an acute myocardial infarction (heart attack).     

Simplified hierarchical linear models for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints

The linear mixed-effects model (Verbeke and Molenberghs, 2000) has become a standard tool for the analysis of continuous hierarchical data such as, for example, repeated measures or data from meta-analyses. However, in certain situations the model does pose insurmountable computational problems. Precisely this has been the experience of Buyse et al. (2000a) who proposed an estimation- and prediction-based approach for evaluating surrogate endpoints. Their approach requires fitting linear mixed models to data from several clinical trials. In doing so, these authors built on the earlier, single-trial based, work by Prentice (1989), Freedman et al. (1992), and Buyse and Molenberghs (1998). While Buyse et al. (2000a) claim their approach has a number of advantages over the classical single-trial methods, a solution needs to be found for the computational complexity of the corresponding linear mixed model. In this paper, we propose and study a number of possible simplifications. This is done by means of a simulation study and by applying the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: Pharmacological Therapy for Macular Degeneration Study Group (1977), Ovarian Cancer Meta-analysis Project (1991) and Corfu-A Study Group (1995).     

A note on infinite-armed Bernoulli bandit problems with generalized beta prior distributions

A bandit problem with infinitely many Bernoulli arms is considered. The parameters of Bernoulli arms are independent and identically distributed random variables from a generalized beta distributionG3B(a, b, λ) witha, b>0 and 0<λ<2. Under the generalized beta prior distributions, we first derive the asymptotic expected failure rates ofk-failure strategies, and then obtain a lower bound for the expected failure rate over all strategies investigated in Berry et al. (1997). The asymptotic expected failure rates for the other three strategies studied in Berry et al. (1997) are also included. Numerical estimations for a variety of generalized beta prior distributions are presented to illustrate the performances of these strategies.