Bayesian reconstruction of the missing failure times in exponential distribution

In this paper, we consider the situations in which a middle part of the sample is lost or removed from the experiment. The left-censored sample and Type-II right-censored sample are special cases of this scheme. Point and interval reconstructors for lost failure times are obtained, while the underlying distribution is exponential. To illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures, two numerical examples based on the real data sets are presented. In the case of two-parameter, a simulation study has been done and also the sensitivity of the results to deviations from the true distribution is investigated.     

Reconstruction of the past lower record values in a proportional reversed hazard rate model

In this paper, the situation in which some lower records from a proportional reversed hazard rate model (PRHRM) are lost at the beginning of the experiment is considered. The reconstruction problem of the past lower records based on observed records from a PRHRM is discussed. Several various methods are used to obtain point reconstructors. More details are given for the Fréchet distribution. Three reconstruction intervals are also obtained and compared in the sense of the expected width for the case of Fréchet distribution. A data set representing the annual flood loss is applied to illustrate the proposed procedure in this paper. Eventually, some concluding remarks are presented.     

Statistical analysis of middle censored competing risks data with exponential distribution

In this paper, we consider some problems of estimation and reconstruction based on middle censored competing risks data. It is assumed that the lifetime distributions of the latent failure times are independent and exponential distributed with different parameters and also that the censoring mechanism is independent. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown parameters are obtained. We then use the asymptotic distribution of the MLEs to construct approximate confidence intervals. Based on gamma priors, Lindley's approximation method is applied to obtain the Bayesian estimates of the unknown parameters under squared error loss function. Since it is not possible to construct the credible intervals, we propose and implement the Gibbs sampling technique to construct the credible intervals. Several point reconstructors for failure time of censored units are provided. Finally, a simulation study is given by Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the performances of the different methods and a data set is analysed to illustrate the proposed procedures.     

Estimation for semi-Markov models with partial observations via self-consistency equations

Nonparametric estimators of the survival function S(t) = P(T ≥ t) for a partially observed time variable T have been defined by several methods, in particular, by integral self-consistency equations. The author establishes explicit expressions of the estimators in an additive form and extend this approach to several cases: a left-truncated and right-censored variable and the left-censored or left-truncated sojourn times of a right-censored semi-Markov process. These estimators are always identical to the product-limit estimators if hazard functions may be defined.     

New approaches for censored longitudinal data in joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data,with application to HIV vaccine studies

In HIV vaccine studies, longitudinal immune response biomarker data are often left-censored due to lower limits of quantification of the employed immunological assays. The censoring information is important for predicting HIV infection, the failure event of interest. We propose two approaches to addressing left censoring in longitudinal data: one that makes no distributional assumptions for the censored data—treating left censored values as a “point mass” subgroup—and the other makes a distributional assumption for a subset of the censored data but not for the remaining subset. We develop these two approaches to handling censoring for joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data via a Cox proportional hazards model fit by h-likelihood. We evaluate the new methods via simulation and analyze an HIV vaccine trial data set, finding that longitudinal characteristics of the immune response biomarkers are highly associated with the risk of HIV infection.

     

Small-area estimation based on survey data from a left-censored Fay-Herriot model

This paper develops methodology for survey estimation and small-area prediction using Fay-Herriot (1979) models in which the responses are left-censored. Parameter and small-area estimators are derived both by censored-data likelihoods and by an estimating-equation approach which adjusts a Fay-Herriot analysis restricted to the uncensored observations. Formulas for variances of estimators and mean-squared errors of small-area predictions are provided and supported by a simulation study. The methodology is applied to provide diagnostics for the left-censored Fay-Herriot model which are illustrated in the context of the Census Bureau's ongoing Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimation (SAIPE) project.     

Computations via Auxiliary Random Functions for Survival Models

Abstract.  A new simulation method, auxiliary random functions is introduced. When used within a Gibbs sampler, this method enables a unified treatment of exact, right-censored, left-censored, left-truncated and interval censored data, with and without covariates in survival models. The models and methods are exemplified via illustrative analysis.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric regression estimation for length-biased survival data

For the past several decades, nonparametric and semiparametric modeling for conventional right-censored survival data has been investigated intensively under a noninformative censoring mechanism. However, these methods may not be applicable for analyzing right-censored survival data that arise from prevalent cohorts when the failure times are subject to length-biased sampling. This review article is intended to provide a summary of some newly developed methods as well as established methods for analyzing length-biased data.     

On Consistency of the Self-Consistent Estimator of Survival Functions with Interval-Censored Data

The self-consistent estimator is commonly used for estimating a survival function with interval-censored data. Recent studies on interval censoring have focused on case 2 interval censoring, which does not involve exact observations, and double censoring, which involves only exact, right-censored or left-censored observations. In this paper, we consider an interval censoring scheme that involves exact, left-censored, right-censored and strictly interval-censored observations. Under this censoring scheme, we prove that the self-consistent estimator is strongly consistent under certain regularity conditions.     

Nonparametric estimators of survival function under the mixed case interval-censored model with left truncation

It is well known that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) can severely underestimate the survival probabilities at early times for left-truncated and interval-censored (LT-IC) data. For arbitrarily truncated and censored data, Pan and Chappel (JAMA Stat Probab Lett 38:49–57, 1998a, Biometrics 54:1053–1060, 1998b) proposed a nonparametric estimator of the survival function, called the iterative Nelson estimator (INE). Their simulation study showed that the INE performed well in overcoming the under-estimation of the survival function from the NPMLE for LT-IC data. In this article, we revisit the problem of inconsistency of the NPMLE. We point out that the inconsistency is caused by the likelihood function of the left-censored observations, where the left-truncated variables are used as the left endpoints of censoring intervals. This can lead to severe underestimation of the survival function if the NPMLE is obtained using Turnbull’s (JAMA 38:290–295, 1976) EM algorithm. To overcome this problem, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator (MMLE) based on a modified likelihood function, where the left endpoints of censoring intervals for left-censored observations are the maximum of left-truncated variables and the estimated left endpoint of the support of the left-censored times. Simulation studies show that the MMLE performs well for finite sample and outperforms both the INE and NPMLE.

     

Gompertz model with time-dependent covariate in the presence of interval-, right- and left-censored data

In this paper, the Gompertz model is extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates in the presence of interval-, right-, left-censored and uncensored data. Then, its performance at different sample sizes, study periods and attendance probabilities are studied. Following that, the model is compared to a fixed covariate model. Finally, two confidence interval estimation methods, Wald and likelihood ratio (LR), are explored and conclusions are drawn based on the results of the coverage probability study. The results indicate that bias, standard error and root mean square error values of the parameter estimates decrease with the increase in study period, attendance probability and sample size. Also, LR was found to work slightly better than the Wald for parameters of the model.     

Implications of Model Misspecification in Robust Tests for Recurrent Events

Chronic disease processes often feature transient recurrent adverse clinical events. Treatment comparisons in clinical trials of such disorders must be based on valid and efficient methods of analysis. We discuss robust strategies for testing treatment effects with recurrent events using methods based on marginal rate functions, partially conditional rate functions, and methods based on marginal failure time models. While all three approaches lead to valid tests of the null hypothesis when robust variance estimates are used, they differ in power. Moreover, some approaches lead to estimators of treatment effect which are more easily interpreted than others. To investigate this, we derive the limiting value of estimators of treatment effect from marginal failure time models and illustrate their dependence on features of the underlying point process, as well as the censoring mechanism. Through simulation, we show that methods based on marginal failure time distributions are shown to be sensitive to treatment effects delaying the occurrence of the very first recurrences. Methods based on marginal or partially conditional rate functions perform well in situations where treatment effects persist or in settings where the aim is to summarizee long-term data on efficacy.     

Extending the inference function for augmented margins method to implement trivariate Clayton copula-based SUR Tobit models

Abstract

In this paper, we perform the analysis of the SUR Tobit model for three left-censored dependent variables by modeling its nonlinear dependence structure through the one-parameter Clayton copula. For unbiased parameter estimation, we propose an extension of the Inference Function for Augmented Margins (IFAM) method to the trivariate case. The interval estimation for the model parameters using resampling procedures is also discussed. We perform simulation and empirical studies, whose satisfactory results indicate the good performance of the proposed model and methods. Our procedure is illustrated using real data on consumption of food items (salad dressings, lettuce, tomato) by Americans.     

Semiparametric Estimation Methods for the Accelerated Failure Time Mixture Cure Model

This paper provides an overview of two semiparametric estimation methods recently proposed in the literature for the accelerated failure time mixture cure model. We prove that the two estimation methods are asymptotically equivalent. A simulation is conducted to investigate the rate of convergence of the two methods. We apply these methods to fit the accelerated failure time mixture cure model to the survival times of leukemia patients receiving bone marrow transplantation.     

Conditional moments of record times

Conditional moments of record times when record values are fixed, are being studied in the paper     

Analyzing Length-biased Data with Semiparametric Transformation and Accelerated Failure Time Models

Right-censored time-to-event data are often observed from a cohort of prevalent cases that are subject to length-biased sampling. Informative right censoring of data from the prevalent cohort within the population often makes it difficult to model risk factors on the unbiased failure times for the general population, because the observed failure times are length biased. In this paper, we consider two classes of flexible semiparametric models: the transformation models and the accelerated failure time models, to assess covariate effects on the population failure times by modeling the length-biased times. We develop unbiased estimating equation approaches to obtain the consistent estimators of the regression coefficients. Large sample properties for the estimators are derived. The methods are confirmed through simulations and illustrated by application to data from a study of a prevalent cohort of dementia patients.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for the proportional odds model with mixed interval-censored failure time data

This article discusses regression analysis of mixed interval-censored failure time data. Such data frequently occur across a variety of settings, including clinical trials, epidemiologic investigations, and many other biomedical studies with a follow-up component. For example, mixed failure times are commonly found in the two largest studies of long-term survivorship after childhood cancer, the datasets that motivated this work. However, most existing methods for failure time data consider only right-censored or only interval-censored failure times, not the more general case where times may be mixed. Additionally, among regression models developed for mixed interval-censored failure times, the proportional hazards formulation is generally assumed. It is well-known that the proportional hazards model may be inappropriate in certain situations, and alternatives are needed to analyze mixed failure time data in such cases. To fill this need, we develop a maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the proportional odds regression model with mixed interval-censored data. We show that the resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian. An extensive simulation study is performed to assess the finite-sample properties of the method, and this investigation indicates that the proposed method works well for many practical situations. We then apply our approach to examine the impact of age at cranial radiation therapy on risk of growth hormone deficiency in long-term survivors of childhood cancer.     

The analysis of ratios and cross-product ratios of poisson variates with application to incidence rates

The incidence of most diseases is low enough that in. large populations the number of new cases may be considered a Poisson variate. This paper explores models and methods for analyzing such data Specific cases are the estimation and testing of ratios and the cross-product ratios, both simple and stratified* We assume the Poisson means are exponential functions of the relevant parameters. The resulting sets of sufficient statistics are partitioned into a test statistic and a vector of statistics related to the nuisance parameters . The methods derived are based on the conditional distribution of the test statistic given the other sufficient statistics. The analyses of stratified cross-product ratios are seen to be analogues of the noncentral distribution associated with theanalysis of the common odds ratio in several 2×2 tables. The various methods are illustrated in numerical examples involving incidence rates of cancer in two metropolitan areas adjusting for both age and sex.     

Analysis of a marker for cancer of the thyroid with a limit of detection

Limit of detection (LoD) is a common problem in the analysis of data generated by instruments that cannot detect very small concentrations or other quantities, resulting in left-censored measurements. Methods intended for data that are not subject to this problem are often difficult to modify for censoring. We adapt the simulation-extrapolation method, devised originally for fitting models with measurement error, to dealing with LoD in conjunction with a mixture analysis. The application relates the levels of thyroglobulin in individuals with cancer of the thyroid before and after treatment with radioactive iodine I–131. We conclude that the fitted mixture components correspond to levels of effectiveness of the treatment.     

Testing for ordered failure rates under general progressive censoring

For exponentially distributed failure times under general progressive censoring schemes, testing procedures for ordered failure rates are proposed using the likelihood ratio principle. Constrained maximum likelihood estimators of the failure rates are found. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are shown to be mixtures of chi-square distributions. When testing the equality of the failure rates, a simulation study shows that the proposed test with restricted alternative has improved power over the usual chi-square statistic with an unrestricted alternative. The proposed methods are illustrated using data of survival times of patients with squamous carcinoma of the oropharynx.