Curtailed Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions based on Type-II censored samples

This paper studies the problem of designing a curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) with Type-II censored data. We first derive the Bayesian sampling plan (BSP) for exponential distributions based on Type-II censored samples in a general loss function. For the conjugate prior with quadratic loss function, an explicit expression for the Bayes decision function is derived. Using the property of monotonicity of the Bayes decision function, a new Bayesian sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure, called a CBSP, is proposed. It is shown that the risk of CBSP is less than or equal to that of BSP. Comparisons among some existing BSPs and the proposed CBSP are given. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted, and numerical results indicate that the CBSP outperforms those early existing sampling plans if the time loss is considered in the loss function.     

Efficient Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with random censoring

This paper considers Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distribution with random censoring. The efficient Bayesian sampling plan for a general loss function is derived. This sampling plan possesses the property that it may make decisions prior to the end of the life test experiment, and its decision function is the same as the Bayes decision function which makes decisions based on data collected at the end of the life test experiment. Compared with the optimal Bayesian sampling plan of Chen et al. (2004), the efficient Bayesian sampling plan has the smaller Bayes risk due to the less duration time of life test experiment. Computations of the efficient Bayes risks for the conjugate prior are given. Numerical comparisons between the proposed efficient Bayesian sampling plan and the optimal Bayesian sampling plan of Chen et al. (2004) under two special decision losses, including the quadratic decision loss, are provided. Numerical results also demonstrate that the performance of the proposed efficient sampling plan is superior to that of the optimal sampling plan by Chen et al. (2004).     

Optimal Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions based on hybrid censored samples

We study variable sampling plans for exponential distributions based on type-I hybrid censored samples. For this problem, two sampling plans based on the non-failure sample proportion and the conditional maximum likelihood estimator are proposed by Chen et al. [J. Chen, W. Chou, H. Wu, and H. Zhou, Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring, Naval Res. Logist. 51 (2004), pp. 597–612] and Lin et al. [C.-T. Lin, Y.-L. Huang, and N. Balakrishnan, Exact Bayesian variable sampling plans for the exponential distribution based on type-I and type-II censored samples, Commun. Statist. Simul. Comput. 37 (2008), pp. 1101–1116], respectively. From the theoretic decision point of view, the preceding two sampling plans are not optimal due to their decision functions not being the Bayes decision functions. In this article, we consider the decision theoretic approach, and the optimal Bayesian sampling plan based on sufficient statistics is derived under a general loss function. Furthermore, for the conjugate prior distribution, the closed-form formula of the Bayes decision rule can be obtained under either the linear or quadratic decision loss. The resulting Bayesian sampling plan has the minimum Bayes risk, and hence it is better than the sampling plans proposed by Chen et al. (2004) and Lin et al. (2008). Numerical comparisons are given and demonstrate that the performance of the proposed Bayesian sampling plan is superior to that of Chen et al. (2004) and Lin et al. (2008).     

Optimal Bayesian variable sampling plans for exponential distributions based on modified type-II hybrid censored samples

For the conventional type-II hybrid censoring scheme (HCS) in Childs et al., a Bayesian variable sampling plan among the class of the maximum likelihood estimators was derived by Lin et al. under the loss function, which does not include the cost of experimental time. Instead of taking the conventional type-II hybrid censoring scheme, a persuasive argument leads to taking the modified type-II hybrid censoring scheme (MHCS) if the cost of experimental time is included in the loss function. In this article, we apply the decision-theoretic approach for the concerned acceptance sampling. With the type-II MHCS, based on a sufficient statistics, the optimal Bayesian sampling plan is derived under a general loss function. Furthermore, for the conjugate prior distribution, the closed-form formula of the Bayes decision rule can be obtained under the quadratic decision loss. Numerical study is given to demonstrate the performance of the proposed Bayesian sampling plan.     

Progressively censored variables sampling plans for two-parameter exponential distributions

Progressive censoring is quite useful in many practical situations where budget constraints are in place or there is a demand for rapid testing. Balasooriya & Saw (1998) present reliability sampling plans for the two-parameter exponential distribution, based on progressively censored samples. However, the operating characteristic (OC) curve derived in their paper does not depend on the sample size. This seems to be because, in their computations, they forget to consider the proportion of uncensored data, which also has an important influence on the subsequent developments. In consequence, their OC curve is only valid when there is no censoring. In this paper, some modifications are proposed. These are needed to obtain a proper design of the above sampling plan. Whenever at least two uncensored observations are available, the OC curve is derived in closed form and a procedure for determining progressively censored reliability sampling plans is also presented. Finally, the example considered by Balasooriya & Saw is used to illustrate the results developed in this paper for several censoring levels.     

Bayesian life test sampling plans for the two parameter exponential distribution

In this paper we consider the determination of Bayesian life test acceptance sampling plans for finite lots when the underlying lifetime distribution is the two parameter exponential. It is assumed that the prior distribution is the natural conjugate prior, that the costs associated with the actions accept and reject are known functions of the lifetimes of the items, and that the cost of testing a sample is proportional to the duration of the test. Type 2 censored sampling is considered where a sample of size n is observed only until the rth failure occurs and the decision of whether to accept or reject the remainder of the lot is made on the basis of the r observed lifetimes. Obtaining the optimal sample size and the optimal censoring number are difficult problems when the location parameter of the distribution is restricted to be non-negative. The case when the positivity restriction on the location parameter is removed has been investigated. An example is provided for illustration.     

Exact Bayesian variable sampling plans for the exponential distribution with progressive hybrid censoring

From the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the average lifetime based on progressive hybrid exponential censored sample, we derive an explicit expression for the Bayes risk of a sampling plan when a quadratic loss function is used. The simulated annealing algorithm is then used to determine the optimal sampling plan. Some optimal Bayes solutions under progressive hybrid and ordinary hybrid censoring schemes are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Estimation of system reliability for exponential distributions based on L ranked set sampling

Abstract

In the case where strength and stress both follow exponential distributions, this paper considers the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the system reliability based on L ranked set sampling (LRSS). The proposed MLE is shown to have existence, uniqueness and asymptotic normality, and its asymptotic variance is obtained by the Fisher information matrix of LRSS. The values of asymptotic relative efficiencies show that the proposed MLE is always more efficient than the MLE using simple random sampling (SRS). However, the MLE using LRSS cannot be written in closed form. Therefore, the modified MLE is proposed using the technique replaced some terms in the maximum likelihood equations by their expectations. The newly modified MLE using LRSS is shown to be superior to the MLE using SRS. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real data set on metastatic renal carcinoma study.     

Acceptance sampling plans by variables for a class of symmetric distributions

The estimation of percentage defectives using a normal sampling plan will not be appropriate when the assumption of normality is violated. In this paper, we propose a sampling plan based on a more general symmetric family of distributions with the parameters estimated using the modified maximum likelihood (MML) procedures introduced by Tiku and Suresh . This sampling plan works well for most of the symmetric non-normal distributions. Some numerical study has also been carried out to show the superiority of the proposed plan.     

Discriminating between generalized exponential,geometric extreme exponential and Weibull distributions

Generalized exponential, geometric extreme exponential and Weibull distributions are three non-negative skewed distributions that are suitable for analysing lifetime data. We present diagnostic tools based on the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and the minimum Kolmogorov distance (KD) method to discriminate between these models. Probability of correct selection has been calculated for each model and for several combinations of shape parameters and sample sizes using Monte Carlo simulation. Application of LRT and KD discrimination methods to some real data sets has also been studied.     

Development of r,T hybrid sampling plans for exponential lifetime distributions

SUMMARY In the original hybrid reliability acceptance sampling plan RASP developed by Epstein for the exponential lifetime distribution, the sample size n and the number of failures r to be observed are determined given the truncation time T . However, these plans cannot be used when test items are expensive and or limited in number. Therefore, one wishes to have a plan in which n is given. In this paper, we develop hybrid RASPs in which r and T are determined, given n. These plans are tabulated for various combinations of parameter values, so that one may easily determine an appropriate plan.     

Locally best tests for exponential distributions with interval-censored data

In this article, we derive a locally best test for testing the mean of exponential distributions with interval-censored samples. This locally best test possesses certain optimality. It is of unbiasedness and equivalent to a likelihood ratio test in some circumstances, and it is also a Bayes test for some loss function. For the locally best test, the associated critical values and powers at a nominal level of significance are provided. For a large sample size case, asymptotic critical values and powers are also calculated and tabulated. Moreover, based on the locally best test, a curtailed test is proposed. This curtailed test is equivalent to the locally best test on the acceptance or rejection of the null hypothesis. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the curtailed test compared with the locally best test. Numerical results show that the experimental duration time of the curtailed test is substantially smaller than that of the locally best test.     

Testing equality of location parameters of two exponential distributions from censored samples

A modification to Tiku's (1981) test, which may be seriously biased, is proposed. The modified test is only marginally biased if at all and is substantially more powerful. A ratio test based on Tiku’s (1967) modified likelihood function is also proposed, and shown to have power comparable to the power of the ratio test based on the likelihood function. The proposed ratio test is, however, much easier from a computational viewpoint.     

Efficient sampling schemes for Bayesian MARS models with many predictors

Multivariate adaptive regression spline fitting or MARS (Friedman 1991) provides a useful methodology for flexible adaptive regression with many predictors. The MARS methodology produces an estimate of the mean response that is a linear combination of adaptively chosen basis functions. Recently, a Bayesian version of MARS has been proposed (Denison, Mallick and Smith 1998a, Holmes and Denison, 2002) combining the MARS methodology with the benefits of Bayesian methods for accounting for model uncertainty to achieve improvements in predictive performance. In implementation of the Bayesian MARS approach, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for computations, in which at each iteration of the algorithm it is proposed to change the current model by either (a) Adding a basis function (birth step) (b) Deleting a basis function (death step) or (c) Altering an existing basis function (change step). In the algorithm of Denison, Mallick and Smith (1998a), when a birth step is proposed, the type of basis function is determined by simulation from the prior. This works well in problems with a small number of predictors, is simple to program, and leads to a simple form for Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities. However, in problems with very large numbers of predictors where many of the predictors are useless it may be difficult to find interesting interactions with such an approach. In the original MARS algorithm of Friedman (1991) a heuristic is used of building up higher order interactions from lower order ones, which greatly reduces the complexity of the search for good basis functions to add to the model. While we do not exactly follow the intuition of the original MARS algorithm in this paper, we nevertheless suggest a similar idea in which the Metropolis-Hastings proposals of Denison, Mallick and Smith (1998a) are altered to allow dependence on the current model. Our modification allows more rapid identification and exploration of important interactions, especially in problems with very large numbers of predictor variables and many useless predictors. Performance of the algorithms is compared in simulation studies.     

A simple and asymptotically optimal test for the equality of k(≥2) exponential distributions based on type II censored samples

A test for the equality of two or more two-parameter exponential distributions is suggested. It is developed on an intuitive basis and is obtained by combining two independent tests by the Fisher method (1950, pp. 99-101). The test is simple for application and is optimal asymptotically in the sense of Bahadur efficiency (1960). A numerical example is discussed to illustrate its application in a real-world situation. The Monte Carlo simulation is used for calculating its power which is compared with that of the test suggested by Singh and Narayan (1983). The suggested test is found oftener more powerful.     

Development of life-test sampling plans for exponential distributions based on accelerated life testing

This paper presents a procedure for developing life-test sampling plans for exponential distributions based upon accelerated life testing(ALT). Type II censoring is assumed at each overstress level. The derived test statistic is shown to be a quotient of two independent random variables, each of which is a rational power of a Chi-square random variable. The distribution of the test statistic is characterized by the H-function, which can be numerically evaluated to obtain desired sampling plans.     

On the distribution of lrt for testing the equality of exponential distributions

In this paper, an asymptotic expansion of the distribution' of the likelihood ratio criterion for testing the equality of p one-parameter exponential distributions is obtained for unequal sample sizes. The expansion is obtained up to the order of n^-3 with the second term of the order of n^-2 so that the first term of this expansion alone should provide an excellent approximation to the distribution for moderately large values of n, where n is the combined sample size.     

Bayesian inference for truncated exponential distributions

Truncated normal distributions are considered as prior distributions for the truncation parameter in truncated exponential models. Posterior istributions re obtained, and inferenceforthe truncation parameter and for the reliability function is discussed. One and two parameter models are considered.     

Accuracy of approximate progressively censored reliability sampling plans for exponential models

Reliability sampling plans provide an efficient method to determine the acceptability of a product based upon the lifelengths of some test units. Usually, they depend on the producer and consumer’s quality requirements and do not admit closed form solutions. Acceptance sampling plans for one- and two-parameter exponential lifetime models, derived by approximating the operating characteristic curve, are presented in this paper. The accuracy of these approximate plans, which are explicitly expressible and valid for failure and progressive censoring, is assessed. The approximation proposed in the one-parameter case is found to be practically exact. Explicit lower and upper bounds on the smallest sample size are given in the two-parameter case. Some additional advantages are also pointed out.